Oilseeds. World Markets and Trade. May 2017 - USDA 五月 11, 2017
Global Oilseed Demand Growth Forecast to Outpace Production
Global oilseed production is forecast to grow slightly in 2017/18. Soybean production is projected to decline from the current year’s record level, with both Brazil and the United States forecast to see year-over-year declines in production, as yields fall to historical trend levels. All other major oilseeds are expected to see larger production. Rapeseed area is forecast to rise with production expected to rebound modestly following the decline observed in 2016/17. Sunflowerseed, peanut, and copra production is projected to grow slightly. Cottonseed and palm kernel production are both expected to see a robust jump in 2017/18.
Global oilseed consumption is forecast to rise, led by strong growth in China’s soybean crush, which is projected to increase 4 percent. Soybean demand is expected to grow at a solid rate, with domestic consumption rising faster than production, thereby reducing stock building. Consumption of other oilseeds is expected to increase as well, especially in cottonseed, palm kernel, and rapeseed where supply growth is greatest.
Global oilseed trade is forecast up on increased demand from China. Ending stocks are projected to remain nearly unchanged in 2017/18, as strong demand growth exceeds production growth. However, large carry-over from this year’s record crops in the U.S. and Brazil assure adequate supplies will be available even if yields fail to reach trend levels. Rapeseed, cottonseed, and palm kernel ending stocks are forecast to grow, while stocks of peanuts and sunflowerseed are projected to decline. Copra ending stocks will remain flat.
Global oilseed meal production is expected to see a robust rise in 2017/18. Global protein meal consumption is also forecast to rise, mainly driven by strong demand from major markets such as China. Trade in protein meals is expected to grow as well, with soybean meal exports forecast to increase slightly over the current year. Both rapeseed and palm kernel meals are projected to see a strong jump in exports while sunflowerseed meal is forecast to fall. Trade in other meals will be largely unchanged in 2017/18. Meal ending stocks are forecast lower, led by a large decline in soybean meal stocks.
Global vegetable oil production is expected to grow modestly, with all major oils forecast to see increases in production. Palm, palm kernel, rapeseed, and cottonseed oil production are all expected to see a healthy jump, on higher crop estimates. Strong soybean meal demand will spur higher crush volumes and increased soybean oil production. Olive oil production is forecast to make a significant recovery from the current marketing year.
Global vegetable oil consumption for food is forecast to expand, reflecting population and GDP growth in emerging economies. Growing food use will primarily be met by palm and soybean oil, followed by sunflowerseed and rapeseed. Global consumption of oils for industrial use is also forecast to increase, in line with growing biodiesel production in major markets. Global vegetable oil trade is expected to increase slightly, with strong growth in rapeseed and soybean oils offset by reductions in cottonseed and coconut oil. Global ending stocks are forecast to grow, mostly in palm oil. Resolute demand for golden oils, which outpaces production, will result in a decline in stocks of soybean, rapeseed, and sunflowerseed oil.
Global oilseed production is forecast at 572.1 million tons, slightly higher than the current season. Soybean production is projected at 344.7 million tons, down 3.4 million tons (1 percent) from the current year. Reductions in the United States, Brazil and Paraguay are forecast to more than offset gains in China, and Canada. Soybean production in Argentina is projected to remain nearly unchanged. A small production recovery is forecast for other oilseeds. Soybean imports are forecast to rise, driven by strong demand in China, the European Union, Southeast Asia, and Egypt. Brazil’s soybean exports are projected to exceed those of the United States in 2017/18. Strong global demand for protein feed will lead to a rise in crush which will put downward pressure on stocks. Soybean meal trade is forecast to expand, driven by strong demand in the EU and Southeast Asia. Soybean oil trade is expected to further increase, mainly on India’s growing demand. Palm oil production is forecast to grow in 2017/18, providing sufficient supplies to meet global demand, while allowing stocks to recover. The U.S. season-average farm price for soybeans is projected at $9.30 per bushel.
Global oilseed production estimates are raised slightly this month with increases for Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay, and Serbia. Rapeseed production in the European Union and the sunflowerseed crop in China have also been revised up. Global soybean exports are forecast higher this month on gains in the United States, Ukraine, Paraguay, and Uruguay. China’s soybean imports have also been raised this month to 89.0 million tons. Projected global soybean ending stocks are raised this month reflecting larger harvests in Argentina and Brazil and increased purchases by China. This more than offset reductions in the United States and Ukraine that reflect larger exports and India with increased domestic use. The U.S. season-average farm price for soybeans is projected at $9.55 per bushel.
U.S. export bids in April, FOB Gulf, averaged $360/ton, down $20 from last month. FOB Brazil Paranagua averaged $357/ton, down $24 from last month. FOB Argentina Up River averaged $351, down $22 from last month. The downtrend in price continues as growing supplies in South America and expectations of a sizable crop in the United States pressure the market.
For the week ending April 27, U.S. 2016/17 soybean export commitments (outstanding sales plus accumulated exports) to China totaled 35.8 million tons compared to 27.1 million a year ago. Total commitments to the world are 56.7 million tons, compared to 46.2 million for the same period last year.
• Global soybean production in 2017/18 is forecast to decline to 345 million tons. This is 3 million tons below the record production projected for 2016/17, and reflects a lower yield for the coming year. Harvested area is forecast to expand nearly 5 percent with much of this increase occurring in the United States. Planting intentions in the United States indicate a 7 percent rise in soybean area to a record 35.9 million hectares. However, a lower trend yield will result in a slight decline in production yet the coming harvest is projected to be the second largest on record. An even larger percentage increase is expected in Canada, augmented by the continued expansion of soybean plantings in western Canada. Both harvested area and production are expected to set records this year. Acreage in South America, for harvest in 2018, is forecast to rise more slowly in comparison. Most producing countries will see a 2 percent increase in growth though reduced trend yields will result in a 3 percent decline in production. Elsewhere, soybean production in China is forecast to rise to its highest level in 6 years in response to acreage expansion while production in Ukraine is projected to reach a record 4.6 million tons following record plantings.
Despite the decline in global production, total global soybean supply is projected to rise 3 percent with record carry-over from 2016/17. However, continued growth in global demand will likely push disappearance to the level of production leading to stock drawdowns in the coming year. The global stocks/use ratio, though reduced from the current year, will remain at an elevated level, indicative of abundant reserve supplies. Global imports are forecast to rise a bit over 3 percent in 2017/18 in response to increases in China, other Asia and the Middle East. In addition, imports by the European Union are expected to rise, helping maintain import levels nearly 2 million tons above those seen earlier in the decade. Brazil and the United States will continue to be the main global soybean suppliers. Brazil’s soybean exports are projected to exceed those of the United States for the second year in a row. However, both the United States and Brazil are forecast to export record levels.
• Global soybean meal trade is forecast to grow 3 percent in 2017/18, nearly unchanged from last year’s projected pace and near long-term growth trends. Growing soybean imports, especially in markets that import both soybeans and meal, will provide some downward pressure on trade growth along with abundant supplies of competitively priced feed grains. Argentina will continue to be the largest exporter. Soybean supplies in Argentina will be more than adequate to meet processor demand though some uncertainty exists regarding producer willingness to sell in light of the progressive reduction in export taxes expected to begin in 2018. Regardless, Argentina, Brazil and Bolivia will account for the largest portion of global export growth. In Bolivia, improved soybean production prospects will allow meal production to return to predrought levels. Exports are also forecast up for Ukraine and India. However, India’s exports will remain somewhat depressed from historic levels in light of strong local demand. Soybean meal consumption growth is also expected in China, other Asia and the Middle East where growing livestock and poultry consumption is driving demand for meal. In the United States, Brazil, and the European Union, demand growth is also augmented by growing production of livestock and poultry for export.
• Soybean oil exports are forecast to rise slightly in 2017/18 with total volume projected to remain near historic highs. Competition with other oils will remain high, especially with the expected rebound in palm oil supplies following the last El Nino event. Exportable supplies, especially in Argentina, will be influenced by demand opportunities for biodiesel. The potential exists for declines in Argentina’s biodiesel exports which could add significantly to available soy oil for export. Overall, total vegetable oil demand for the food market will continue to grow in line with the historic trends. Demand for soy oil wil be dependent upon its pricing and availability vis-à- vis other oils. o U.S. soybean exports are projected to rise 2.7 million tons to a record 58.5 million, meal exports are forecast higher at 11.2 million, up 272,000 tons, while oil exports are unchanged at slightly above 1 million tons. o Argentina soybean exports are projected to remain unchanged at 9.0 million tons, meal exports are forecast to grow 725,000 tons to 32.3 million, and oil is up 250,000 tons to 5.8 million.
- U.S. soybean exports are projected to rise 2.7 million tons to a record 58.5 million, meal exports are forecast higher at 11.2 million, up 272,000 tons, while oil exports are unchanged at slightly above 1 million tons.
- Argentina soybean exports are projected to remain unchanged at 9.0 million tons, meal exports are forecast to grow 725,000 tons to 32.3 million, and oil is up 250,000 tons to 5.8 million.
- Brazil soybean exports are projected up 1.6 million tons to 63.5 million, meal exports are forecast to climb 300,000 tons to 15.5 million, and oil exports are expected to rise slightly to 1.5 million tons.
- China soybean imports are projected up 4 million tons to 93.0 million, while meal exports remain nearly stable at 1.5 million tons. Oil imports are forecast to decline 70,000 tons to 550,000.
- EU soybean imports are projected to rise 400,000 tons to 15.0 million, with meal imports rising only 100,000 tons to 19.6 million.
• Global rapeseed production is forecast to rise 3.9 million tons in 2017/18 on the strength of a 9 percent increase in area harvested. Production gains are forecast for Canada, Ukraine, the EU, India and the United States. All are projected to reach record volumes except the EU. Good returns for rapeseed in Canada are projected to push plantings nearly 18 percent above last year though a return to normal trend yields will limit production growth to 14 percent. Production in Ukraine is expected to nearly double with a similar increase in harvested area. Accordingly, global exports are forecast to rise 4 percent to a record 15.8 million tons, boosted by a return in China’s purchasing following the draw-down in rape oil stocks this year. Global ending stocks are also projected to remain tight in response to strong demand and low carry-over from the current year.
• Global rapeseed crush is forecast to rise in the coming year, leading to increases in both rapeseed meal and oil exports. China’s higher rapeseed meal purchases from Canada, which began this year, are expected to continue into 2017/18.
- U.S. rapeseed imports are projected higher at 840,000 tons; meal is raised to 3.6 million tons, and oil is up 55,000 tons to 2.1 million.
- Canada rapeseed exports are projected to rise 300,000 tons to 10.7 million, meal is up 100,000 tons to 4.6 million, and oil is up 50,000 tons to 3.2 million.
- China rapeseed imports are projected up 700,000 tons to 4.3 million. Meal is slightly higher at 530,000 tons while oil is up 50,000 tons to 750,000.
• Global sunflowerseed production in 2017/18 is projected at a record 46.1 million tons. Larger crops in Argentina, Bolivia, China, the EU, Turkey, and Russia more than offset smaller crops in Ukraine and the United States. Global crush is projected to grow as major sunflowerseed producers and importers increase processing to satisfy demand for meal and oil for both domestic and global markets. Global sunflowerseed stocks at the end of 2017/18 are forecast to decline, remaining 20 percent below the recent 5-year average.
• Global sunflowerseed meal trade is forecast to fall slightly, limited by strong domestic demand in the major producing countries and ample supplies of other protein meals.
• The sunflowerseed oil import forecast remains unchanged at 8.0 million tons. This is significantly above the previous 5-year average, supported by very strong demand in the European Union, India, China, North Africa, and the Middle East. Despite growing global production, rising consumption will keep stocks relatively tight at near 1.5 million tons.
- Argentina sunflowerseed exports are forecast to grow over 80,000 tons to 300,000.
- European Union sunflowerseed imports are expected to decline 50,000 tons to 600,000 and exports are projected slightly lower at 350,000 tons. Meal imports are forecast down 100,000 tons to 3.7 million while meal exports are unchanged at 200,000 tons. Sunflowerseed oil imports are projected unchanged at 1.5 million tons while exports are down 80,000 tons to 350,000.
- China sunflowerseed exports are forecast to be unchanged at 300,000 tons. Sunflowerseed oil imports are expected to grow 40,000 tons to 970,000.
- Ukraine sunflowerseed exports are expected to be higher at 250,000 tons. Meal exports are down 400,000 tons to 4.4 million. Oil exports are projected lower 100,000 tons at 5.0 million.
- Russia sunflowerseed meal exports are forecast unchanged at 1.6 million tons. Oil exports are forecast up 100,000 tons to 2.1 million.
- Turkey sunflowerseed exports are projected 50,000 tons higher at 400,000. Meal imports are forecast down 100,000 tons to 800,000. Sunflowerseed oil imports are forecast slightly lower at 850,000 tons while exports are expected unchanged at 550,000.
- Pakistan sunflowerseed meal imports are expected to stay unchanged at 200,000 tons.
- India sunflowerseed meal imports are projected 50,000 tons down to 250,000. Sunflowerseed oil imports are expected to fall 100,000 tons to 1.8 million.
PALM OIL AND PALM KERNEL
• Global palm oil production in 2017/18 is forecast to grow at a healthy pace, with production in both Malaysia and Indonesia continuing to grow. Palm oil will remain the dominant vegetable oil, accounting for one-third of total vegetable oil consumption, but is expected to be eclipsed by soybean oil as the largest food oil in the upcoming marketing year. Industrial use for palm oil will continue to expand, with increased availability and rising petroleum prices impacting demand for alternate fuels such as biodiesel. Global palm oil trade is forecast to grow modestly, as rising output and lower prices lends support to growing demand, particularly in South Asia region.
- Indonesia exports are forecast up 500,000 tons to 25.5 million, while Malaysia is up 300,000 tons to 17.3 million.
- India imports are expected up 300,000 tons to 9.5 million, and Bangladesh is up 100,000 to 1.6 million tons.
- U.S. imports are forecast unchanged at 1.3 million tons.
• Global palm kernel production in 2017/18 is forecast to rise, reflecting the expected growth in palm oil production. Palm kernel meal trade is forecast to rise slightly as well, with demand for industrial use of palm kernel hulls expected to continue its growth. Leading importer New Zealand is forecast to be near flat, while EU imports are expected to slightly decline. Palm kernel oil imports are forecast to rise slightly, on increased availability from major producers.
- Indonesia meal exports are up 150,000 tons to 4.2 million, and oil exports up 50,000 tons to 1.7 million.
- Malaysia meal exports are up 120,000 tons to 2.5 million, while oil exports are up 40,000 tons to 1.0 million.
- EU meal and oil imports remain steady at 2.1 million and 650,000 tons, respectively.
- New Zealand meal imports are near flat at 1.6 million tons.
- China oil imports are flat at 600,000 tons
- U.S. oil imports are lowered to 340,000 tons
• Global copra production in 2017/18 is forecast to rise 2 percent. This is largely attributed to expanding coconut plantations in Vietnam and improving yields in the Philippines in response to more favorable weather. Indonesia has also benefited from the end of El Nino though its copra production is expected to decline slightly due to falling yields.
• Copra meal production is projected to increase along with global trade in response to growing supplies.
• Coconut oil production is up while global exports are projected to decline in response to limited growth in import demand. Coconut oil prices have strengthened and face competitive pressure from other oils, particularly palm kernel oil, as a less expensive substitute. This is expected to lead to some increase in ending stocks, though stock levels will remain somewhat tight compared to past years.
- Malaysia is forecast to remain as the third-largest importer and exporter of coconut oil though imports are forecast to decline to 160,000 tons while exports fall to 120,000 tons.
- The Philippines coconut oil exports are forecast to reach 850,000 tons and copra meal exports are expected higher at 360,000 tons.
- Indonesia coconut oil exports are forecast lower at 620,000 tons while copra meal exports are projected to rise slightly to 245,000 tons.
- The United States is forecast to remain the world’s largest importer of coconut oil, rising slightly to 544,000 tons. EU imports are projected to remain steady at 510,000 tons.
• Global peanut production in 2017/18 is forecast to rise almost 1.0 million tons to 43.3 million, as area harvested in China, India, and the United States is projected to grow. While this would be the third largest peanut production on record, growing demand is expected to lead to a drawdown in global stocks. Global peanut trade is projected to rise for the fifth straight year as demand continues to grow. Export growth is primarily limited to India where supply growth is greatest. Argentina will continue to be the world’s largest exporter despite a marginal decline in exports due to a small decline in total supplies. U.S. exports are projected to stay unchanged at 635,000 tons, maintaining the high export level which began in 2015/16. China will remain as the world’s second largest importer after the EU, bolstered by continued strong demand for crush peanuts.
- U.S. exports are forecast to stay unchanged at 635,000 tons.
- Argentina’s exports are down 20,000 tons to 880,000 on reduced supplies though remain near record volume.
- China’s imports are forecast at 580,000 tons and exports are projected to rise 30,000 tons to 580,000, with an expected increase in domestic production.
- India’s exports are up 100,000 tons to 1.05 million due to further gains in production. o EU peanut imports are 10,000 tons higher at 875,000.
• 2017/18 global cottonseed production is projected to recover to 41.8 million tons, up 8 percent from the current year. Larger crops are forecast in China, India, Australia, Pakistan, Turkey and the United States. Projected cottonseed production recovery in Australia is expected to spur additional imports in the major buyers’ markets. Global cottonseed crush is projected to grow 7 percent leading to greater supplies of meal and oil.
- Australia cottonseed exports surge 90,000 tons to 440,000.
- Brazil exports are forecast unchanged at 110,000 tons.
- U.S. exports are projected down 22,700 tons to 249,500.
- China and Japan cottonseed imports are each expected to grow 30,000 tons to 150,000 and 140,000, respectively.
- South Korea imports are expected to grow 25,000 tons to 200,000.
- Saudi Arabia and Mexico imports are each forecast to grow 20,000 tons to 140,000 and 120,000, respectively.
• Global olive oil production in 2017/18 is forecast to recover to 3.1 million tons. Production prospects in the EU are expected to improve, based on anticipated yield recovery in Spain as well as a rebound in the Portuguese crop (following a poor fruit bearing year). In addition, planted area in Spain and Portugal continues to expand. In Italy and Greece, production is anticipated to return to average levels in 2017/18 after a poor 2016/17 harvest. Supplies in the EU are forecast to be sufficient to meet domestic needs and allow for a steady export pace. Olive oil production in Tunisia is forecast to recover in 2017/18 following improved weather conditions last winter leading to good vegetative growth. Due to a projected recovery in global olive oil production in 2017/18, stocks are forecast to recover as well but remain below historic norms.
- European Union exports are forecast slightly lower at 600,000 tons, while imports are projected unchanged at 100,000 tons.
- Tunisia exports are forecast to double to 180,000 tons.
- Turkey exports are forecast unchanged at 50,000 tons.
- U.S. imports are projected to rise slightly to 325,000 tons.
- China and Japan imports are forecast unchanged at 40,000 and 60,000 tons, respectively.
• Global fishmeal production and trade is expected to decline slightly in 2017/18. Peru continues to be the largest producer and exporter representing close to a third of global trade. Peru has tightly managed catch in recent years which has reduced year-to-year variability in production and exports, though total production remains well below peak years observed earlier in the decade. With an El Nino potentially looming in late 2017, Peru’s production and exports for CY 2018 are forecast to decline to near 2016 levels and the last El Nino event. This is expected to keep global fishmeal supplies tight and prices elevated as has been the case for the past few years.
- Peru exports fall 65,000 tons to 655,000.
- Thailand exports rise 30,000 tons to 170,000.
- China imports remain constant at 1.0 million tons.
2016/17 TRADE CHANGES
- United States
- Soybean exports are boosted 681,000 tons to 55.8 million.
- Soybean meal exports are up 182,000 tons to 11.0 million.
- Argentina soybean meal exports are down 400,000 tons to 31.6 million, on slowing pace of trade.
- Soybean imports are reduced 250,000 tons to 950,000 on slowing pace of trade.
- Soybean meal imports are up 100,000 tons to 450,000 and soybean oil imports grow 100,000 tons to 700,000, on strong local demand and lower supplies for crush.
- Rapeseed exports are boosted 600,000 tons to 10.4 million on pace of trade.
- Soybean meal exports grow 100,000 tons to 300,000 pace of trade.
- Soybean imports surge 1.0 million to 89.0 million reflecting the stronger pace of trade and ample exportable supplies in South America and the United States.
- Rapeseed meal imports are raised 100,000 tons to 500,000 on stronger pace of trade from Canada.
- European Union
- Rapeseed imports are lifted 250,000 tons to 4.1 million reflecting a stronger pace of trade on growing crush demand, as well as uncertainty with the domestic rapeseed crop in 2017/18.
- Sunflowerseed imports are up 100,000 tons to 650,000 on continuing stronger pace of trade, while sunflowerseed oil imports are raised 100,000 tons to 1.5 million on growing demand for food use vegetable oil and exportable supplies in Ukraine.
- Soybean meal exports are down 100,000 tons to 1.4 million, on slowing trade pace.
- Palm oil imports are cut 200,000 tons to 9.0 million, on slowing demand due to increased availability of premium vegetable oils.
- Soybean oil imports are lowered 100,000 tons to 3.7 million, and sunflowerseed oil imports are up 100,000 tons to 1.9 million, on trade trends based on changes in relative affordability.
- Indonesia soybean meal imports are down 300,000 tons to 4.3 million on weaker pace of trade.
- Mexico rapeseed imports are up 300,000 tons to 1.8 million, on an expected increase in imports from Canada.
- Nigeria palm oil imports are down 200,000 tons to 400,000, on monetary policies continuing to limit importers to foreign currency reserves.
- Pakistan rapeseed imports are up 100,000 tons to 1.2 million on increased global supplies.
- Paraguay soybean exports are up 100,000 tons to 6.3 million following a rise in production and exportable supplies.
- Soybean exports are up 300,000 tons to 2.9 million, on stronger pace of trade in the first half of the marketing year.
- Rapeseed exports are up 100,000 tons to 1.0 million, following the stronger pace of European imports.