Grain. World Markets and Trade. Dec 2013 十二月 11, 2013
The record world corn harvest is largely complete for the Northern Hemisphere countries. The record U.S. crop accounts for 80 percent of the growth in world corn production. Planting in Southern Hemisphere countries, particularly Argentina and Brazil, is still underway and crops will not be harvested for several months.
Import demand is expected to resume its upward trend, driven largely by Mexico and China. The prospect of huge U.S. exportable supplies has already driven export prices down some 30 percent ($100/ton) from last year at this time. That will improve the competitive position of the United States vis-à-vis Argentina and Brazil, where trade is forecast down sharply. With expanding global demand, shrinking competitor trade, and lower U.S. prices, U.S. exports are forecast to double.
WHEAT: WORLD MARKETS AND TRADE
Global production for 2013/14 is raised to a record level with larger Canadian and Australian crops. Trade is also projected at a record. U.S. imports are raised again this month as more Canadian wheat is expected to flow into the United States. Exports for both Canada and the EU are raised. U.S. exports are unchanged this month. The season-average farm price is lowered slightly.
Domestic: Wheat prices fell in November. Demand for U.S. wheat softened as competition intensified with Canada’s huge exportable surplus. Hard Red Spring (HRS), which competes directly with Canadian wheat, plunged $14 to $326/ton. Although prices fell for Hard Red Winter (HRW) and Soft Red Winter (SRW), tightening supplies of both wheat classes are supportive. HRW fell $7 to $319/ton and SRW barely changed at $283/ton. Soft White Wheat (SWW) dropped $11/ton to $283/ton in response to a larger Australian crop.
TRADE CHANGES IN 2013/14
• Canada is raised 1.0 million tons to 22.5 million, the highest in 22 years, on record production. Exports are expected to increase to the United States, South America and Asia.
• European Union is up 1.0 million tons to 25.0 million on the fast pace of export licenses and expected future sales to North Africa and the Middle East.
• Bangladesh is raised 300,000 tons to 3.3 million on account of the strong import pace todate
and recent government purchases.
• Egypt is up 500,000 tons to 10.0 million because of the pace of recent government purchases.
• Mexico is boosted 300,000 tons to 4.3 million on stronger-than-expected pace.
• The United States is up 250,000 tons to a record 4.2 million due to tight supplies of milling-quality wheat and a record Canadian crop.
RICE: WORLD MARKETS AND TRADE
Due to smaller crops in India and Thailand, global production for 2013/14 is projected down from last month but still a record. Ending stocks are also lower as consumption is expected to exceed production. Already a record, 2014 trade is boosted again as Thailand is forecast to supply the increase in global demand. U.S. exports are up and imports down marginally from last month.
Thai prices have crashed over the past several months as the government attempts to sell sufficient stocks to finance its Paddy Pledging Scheme. As a result, Thailand has fallen from the highest-priced supplier to tie for the lowest in just 2 years, helped by the recent increase in quotes for Viet 5%, a likely temporary phenomenon resulting from a large sale of Vietnamese rice to the Philippines. By contrast, relatively tight supplies have kept U.S. quotes up, now nearly $200 above the Asian competition. Though there are few markets where U.S. rice competes directly with Thai rice, the price disparity has not been this great since 2004.
• Thailand is boosted 500,000 tons in 2014 to 8.5 million on competitive prices and greater global demand.
• United States is cut 150,000 tons in 2013 (to 3.3 million) and raised 150,000 tons in 2014 (to 3.4 million) on the timing of shipments.
• European Union is raised 100,000 tons in 2013 (to 1.3 million) on the pace of shipments and raised 150,000 tons in 2014 (to 1.4 million) as demand is expected to remain strong.
• Iran is raised 100,000 tons in 2013 (to 1.9 million) on trade data but cut by the same amount in 2014 (to 1.7 million) on a larger crop.
• Philippines is up 100,000 tons in 2013 and 2014 (to 1.1 million and 1.2 million, respectively) on purchases from Vietnam after the recent typhoon.
COARSE GRAINS: WORLD MARKETS AND TRADE
World coarse grains production is up with larger corn (Canada and Ukraine) and barley crops (Australia and Canada). Global corn trade is up, led mostly by robust demand from the EU.
The U.S. corn export estimate is raised as favorable prices continue to boost sales. The seasonaverage
farm price is lowered slightly.
U.S. corn quotes have been range-bound since the end of September. Although sales and shipments have been strong, expectations for additional supplies and uncertainty over China’s rejection of some U.S. corn cargoes have pressured prices. For the first week of December, prices are quoted at about $211/ton.
TRADE CHANGES IN 2013/14
• U.S. corn is up 1.0 million tons to 37.0 million on recent strong sales and shipments.
• Canadian corn is boosted 500,000 tons to 1.5 million on greater exportable supplies.
• Australian barley is raised 600,000 tons to 4.7 million on sharply larger exportable supplies and demand from China for malting barley. (Chinese barley imports are boosted 300,000 tons to 2.5 million.)
• Canadian barley is raised 200,000 tons to 1.9 million on greater exportable supplies.
• EU barley is cut by 800,000 tons to 4.5 million based on a slowdown in export licenses. (Exports for 2012/13 are raised 1.0 million tons to 6.5 million because of strong lateseason shipments that limited export licenses available in the next trade year.)
• Ukrainian barley is raised 300,000 tons to 2.5 million based on reduced competition
from the EU.
• EU corn is boosted 1.0 million tons to 9.0 million on the pace of import licenses and greater global supplies, especially from Ukraine.
• Kenyan corn is doubled to 800,000 tons, the highest in 5 years, on a smaller crop.
TRADE CHANGES IN 2012/13
Selected Exporters – based on trade data
• Australian barley is up 800,000 tons to 4.6 million.
• Ukrainian barley is raised 500,000 tons to 2.7 million.
Selected Importer – based on trade data
• Saudi Arabian barley is boosted 2.0 million tons to a record 10.0 million