Oilseeds. World Markets and Trade. May 2014 五月 11, 2014
Global Soybean Stocks Rise with Record Crops
Global soybean ending stocks in 2014/15 (local year basis) are forecast to jump by nearly 35 percent. Area expansion, encouraged by sustained high prices and better weather, has already led to record 2014 production in South America. Furthermore, record crops are forecast in the United States and Canada for harvest later this year. With production gains outpacing consumption growth, the surplus is expected to replenish global stocks.
This forecast surge in stocks is likely to pressure prices lower from their current levels. This, in turn, would be expected to discourage significant area and production expansion in South America for crops harvested in early 2015. However, with demand growth in China slowing somewhat over the coming year, there could be additional stock building in South America.
Prevailing competitive prices are expected to boost global soybean production to a record level. Global import demand is forecast to rise, driven by China, the EU, Thailand, and Vietnam. Global trade for soybean meal expands, driven by demand in the EU, while India boosts demand for soybean oil. With a record crop, U.S. exports are forecast to reach a new high and replenish stocks. U.S. season average farm price is projected lower at to $10.75 per bushel.
Global soybean production is marginally lower while trade is higher, driven by larger exports from Argentina and the United States. U.S. exports are estimated to reach a new high reflecting relatively strong shipments well into spring. U.S. imports are raised on prospective large shipments from South America this summer. Despite estimated record imports, stocks remain tight, and the U.S. season average farm price is raised to $13.10 per bushel.
U.S. export bids, FOB Gulf, in April averaged $580 per ton, up $19 from last month. Higher prices reflect continued strong foreign demand, implying unusually large crush figures for March and tight stocks.
As of the week ending May 1, U.S. 2013/14 soybean commitments (outstanding sales plus accumulated exports) to China totaled 27.6 million tons compared to 21.8 million a year ago. Total commitments to the world are 44.6 million tons, compared to 36.5 million for the same period last year.
• Global soybean production in 2014/15 is expected to approach a record 300 million tons as recent high prices spur additional plantings in the United States, Canada, and Ukraine. The resulting increase in supply will alleviate the tight market conditions that currently exist in the United States and pressure prices lower. Despite forecast record U.S. exports and large crush, ending stocks are expected to top 9 million tons, the largest since 2006/07. Lower prices are forecast to reduce area expansion in South America with significant forecast production increases limited to Brazil. Exports from the region are forecast to be only marginally higher as import demand, led by China, is expected to grow at a slower pace. As in the U.S., local year ending stocks should continue to grow in South America reaching record levels by early 2016. Stocks in Argentina will likely account for more than half the region’s reserves.
• Global soybean meal trade is forecast to grow at trend to a record 65 million tons in 2014/15. Growing Argentine crush, in contrast to minimal increases in other exporting countries, will allow Argentina to capture two-thirds of the forecast export growth. Declines in sunflower seed and rapeseed production should reduce some of the competitive pressure in protein meal markets. Lower soybean prices are also expected to translate into reduced product prices further adding to soybean meal’s competitiveness in protein markets. Soybean oil exports are also forecast to grow in the coming year, with Argentina capturing most of the growth. Lower prices and reduced premium vis-à-vis palm oil is expected to increase trade, particularly to India. China’s soybeanoil imports are forecast to remain unchanged as larger domestic production will keep pace with growing demand.
o U.S. soybean exports of soybeans are projected up 680,000 tons to 44.2 million tons, meal is up 182,000 tons to 10.2 million, and oil is up 68,000 tons to 771,000.
o Argentina’s soybean exports are projected unchanged from 2013/14 at 9.0 million, meal is up 2.0 million to 29.8 million, and oil is up 300,000 to 4.8 million.
o Brazil’s soybean exports are projected up 500,000 at 45.0 million tons, meal up 220,000 tons to 14 million, and oil remains at 1.4 million.
o China’s soybean imports are projected up 3 million tons to 72.0 million and oil steady at 1.4 million.
o EU’s soybean imports are projected up 200,000 tons at 12.5 million and meal up 900,000 tons at 19.8 million.
• Global rapeseed production is forecast to decline in 2014/15 as area remains steady and yield return to trend levels. Production in the major exporting countries, Canada, Australia, and Ukraine are all lower though supplies in Canada, given the large carry-over from 2013/14, remain unchanged. Larger production in China and the EU will lead to lowered import demand, offsetting reduced exports by Australia and Ukraine. Canada’s crush is forecast to grow with the additional supplies of meal and oil destined for the U.S. market.
o U.S. rapeseed imports are projected down 135,000 tons to 750,000 tons, meal up 132,000 tons to 3.4 million, and oil up 225,000 tons to 1.7 million.
o Canada’s rapeseed exports are projected to remain at 8.1 million tons, meal up 250,000 tons to 3.6 million, and oil up 160,000 tons to 2.7 million.
o China’s rapeseed imports are projected down 200,000 tons to 3.5 million tons and oil up 100,000 tons to 1.4 million.
• Global sunflower seed production is projected lower in 2014/15 as reduced plantings in the EU, Russia, and Turkey are only partially offset by gains in Argentina and the United States. Ukraine’s production is forecast to decline as yields are reduced to trend. Global trade for sunflower seed is expected to rise marginally, supported by larger exports for China and the United States. Russia and Ukraine’s exports will likely remain at 2013/14 levels. Global crush is expected to decline only slightly as both Russia and Ukraine draw down stocks to satisfy demand for meal and oil in export markets. Global trade in sunflower seed meal is expected to remain at the 2013/14 level, pressured by the availability of competitively priced soybean meal. Global sunflower seed oil trade is set to rise, supported by strong import demand in the Middle East, North Africa, China and India.
o Ukraine’s meal exports are projected down 300,000 tons to 3.7 million tons and oil, down 60,000 tons to 3.7 million.
o Russia’s exports of both meal and oil are projected up 100,000 tons each to 1.6 million and 1.7 million, respectively.
o EU meal imports are projected down 200,000 tons to 3.4 million and for oil, down 50,000 tons to 950,000.
o China’s sunflower seed oil imports are projected up 50,000 tons to 500,000, while India’s are up 100,000 to 1.4 million.
• Global palm oil production in 2014/15 is projected to exceed the prior year’s record by 6 percent, largely on gains in Indonesia. Though still primarily a food oil, industrial applications for palm oil are expanding, particularly in Indonesia and Malaysia where emphasis is being made on valueadded products. Global palm oil trade is expected to rebound from the prior year’s contraction, reaching a new record primarily on rising demand in South and East Asia.
o Indonesia’s exports are forecast up 1.6 million tons to 22.0 million, while Malaysia’s are up 400,000 tons to 17.7 million.
o India’s imports are forecast up 500,000 tons at 8.8 million; Pakistan’s are up 200,000 tons at 2.7 million; Bangladesh’s are up 200,000 at 1.3 million tons; China’s are up 300,000 tons to 6.6 million, and EU is up 100,000 tons to 6.3 million.
• Global palm kernel production in 2014/15 is up, with the majority crushed in the country of origin. Palm kernel meal trade is forecast to rise, with both Indonesia and Malaysia shipping primarily to the EU. However, the strongest year-to-year import growth is expected for New Zealand. Palm kernel oil imports are forecast to grow modestly, particularly in the key markets of the EU, China, India, and the United States.
o Indonesia’s meal exports are up 100,000 tons to 3.9 million, and oil up 50,000 tons to 1.8 million.
o Malaysia’s meal exports are up 125,000 tons to 2.5 million, and oil flat at 1.0 million.
o EU meal imports are steady at 2.6 million tons, and oil remains at 620,000.
o New Zealand’s meal imports are up 100,000 tons to 1.8 million.
o China’s oil imports are up 25,000 tons to 575,000, while the United States is up 5,000 tons to 300,000.
• Global copra production in 2014/15 is down slightly, mostly on a smaller crop in the Philippines. Trade is expected up slightly, as Philippine’s imports are expected to rise. In response to lower total production, crush is down, reducing copra meal and coconut oil supplies. Copra meal trade is forecast to remain flat as the potential to increase Philippine and Indonesian exports is limited. Coconut oil production is lower and stocks continue to tighten as import demand continues to remain strong in the United States, the EU, China, and Malaysia.
o Philippine copra meal exports are flat at 525,000 tons, and coconut oil steady at 800,000 tons.
o Indonesia’s copra meal exports continue at 300,000 tons, and coconut oil unchanged at 700,000 tons.
o South Korea’s copra meal imports rise 25,000 tons to 575,000.
o EU coconut oil imports remain at 600,000 tons, while the United States is down 23,000 tons to 499,000.
• Global peanut production in 2014/15 is forecast to approach a record 41 million tons with production increases in all major producer and exporter countries. Peanut area in the United States is forecast to rebound from the previous year’s plantings, yet fall below the level reached in 2012. Global trade is expected to remain relatively unchanged from 2013/14 leading to stock building in both the U.S. and Argentina. With global supplies more than adequate, further price weakening is expected, boosting competitiveness of peanuts in the snack food sector.
o U.S. exports are nearly unchanged at 431,000 tons.
o Argentina’s exports are up 50,000 tons to 700,000 in response to increased production.
o China’s exports are up 50,000 tons to 600,000.
o India’s exports are down 100,000 tons to 650,000 due to growing competition and domestic demand.
o EU peanut imports are up slightly to 800,000 tons.
• Weakness in cotton markets is forecast to reduce area and cottonseed production in 2014/15. Global cottonseed production is forecast to decline to 43.3 million tons, the lowest since 2009/10. While U.S. production is expected to rise from last season’s reduced level, many of the remaining producers will see flat to lower production. Cottonseed oil prices, currently at high levels in the U.S., are expected to soften somewhat as the U.S. supply situation improves slightly.
o Australia’s cottonseed exports are down 100,000 tons to 350,000.
o U.S. cottonseed exports are up 46,000 tons at 227,000, while imports are down 100,000 tons to zero.
• Global olive oil production is forecast to grow slightly in 2014/15 to 3.2 million tons. Supplies in the EU will be sufficient to meet domestic and export demand. U.S. imports should continue to recover after falling in 2012/13 in response to a shortfall in EU production that pushed prices temporarily higher.
o EU exports are up 30,000 tons to 580,000.
o U.S. imports are raised 9,000 tons at 315,000.
• Global fishmeal trade is expected to rise as strong demand in importing countries stimulates trade in 2014/15. In particular, although Peru’s catch is likely to remain relatively steady, demand growth in China continues to grow. As a result, total stocks of fishmeal, particularly in Peru, are expected to decline.
o Peru’s exports are up 120,000 tons to 1.05 million.
o Chile’s exports are steady at 300,000 tons.
o China’s imports are raised 30,000 tons to 1.1 million.
2013/14 TRADE OUTLOOK
• United States
o Soybean exports are up 544,000 tons to 43.5 million on continued strong shipments to date.
o Soybean imports are up 680,000 tons to a record 2.4 million on prospective large shipments from South America this summer.
o Soybean exports are up 1.0 million tons to 9.0 million on larger supplies.
o Soybean meal exports are up 475,000 tons to 27.8 million on expanded crush.
o Sunflowerseed oil exports are cut 100,000 tons to 520,000 on slowing trade pace.
o Soybean exports are cut 130,000 tons to 3.4 million on the pace of trade.
o Soybean meal imports are down 100,000 tons to 950,000 on trade pace.
o Rapeseed exports are down 200,000 tons to 8.1 million on trade to date.
o Rapeseed meal exports are down 270,000 tons to 3.3 million on reduced supplies.
o Rapeseed oil exports are down 180,000 tons to 2.5 million on lower supplies.
o Soybean oil imports are cut 120,000 tons to 1.4 million reflecting trade to date.
o Palm oil imports are cut 100,000 tons to 6.3 million on slower imports to date.
• European Union
o Soybean meal imports are cut 200,000 tons to 18.9 million reflecting slower imports from South America.
o Rapeseed imports are cut 100,000 tons to 3.3 million on smaller shipments from Ukraine.
o Coconut oil imports are cut 100,000 tons to 600,000 to reflect reduced exportable supplies in the Philippines.
• India’s palm oil imports are down 450,000 tons to 8.3 million. Soybean oil imports are up 270,000 tons to 1.5 million as trade policy and prices have shifted demand from palm oil to soybean oil.
o Palm kernel meal exports are raised 150,000 tons to 3.8 million on a strong pace to date.
o Palm oil exports are cut 300,000 tons to 20.4 million on reduced exports to India and Malaysia.
• Iran’s soybean meal imports are up 300,000 tons to 2.5 million on loosening trade restrictions.
• Malaysia’s palm oil imports are lowered 550,000 tons to 250,000 and palm kernel oil imports are cut by 435,000 tons to 200,000 as trade with Indonesia is severely curtailed.
• Mexico’s soybean meal imports are cut 230,000 tons to 1.3 million on trade pace.
• New Zealand’s palm kernel meal imports are raised by 100,000 tons to 1.7 million to reflect shipments to date and growing demand.
• Pakistan’s rapeseed imports are up 100,000 tons to 800,000 on recent large purchases.
• Paraguay’s soybean meal exports are down 150,000 tons to 2.5 million on lower supplies.
• Peru’s fish meal exports are down 170,000 tons to 930,000 on a reduced catch.
• Taiwan’s soybean imports are down 100,000 tons to 2.2 million on trade to date.
• Ukraine’s soybean exports are slashed 200,000 tons to 1.7 million on a slower pace