South Africa. Oils Annual. Mar 2015 四月 12, 2015
Production
Post estimates that South Africa will produce about 464,000 tons of oilseed oil in the 2015/16 MY. This is 11 percent more than the 418,000 tons oil post estimates South Africa will produced in the 2014/15 MY. In the 2013/14 MY, South Africa produced a record 480,000 tons of oilseed oils, 35 percent higher than in the 2012/13 MY, due to a record local production of 1.9 million tons of oilseeds. Crushing yields used include 38 percent oil for sunflower seed and 18 percent oil for soybeans.
Oilseed oil production in South Africa
Oilseeds (1,000MT) | Crushed | Oil produce | ||||
Marketing year | 2013/14 | 2014/15 | 2015/16 | 2013/14 | 2014/15 | 2015/16 |
Sunflower (38% oil) | 865 | 650 | 700 | 329 | 247 | 266 |
Soybean (18% oil) | 840 | 950 | 1,100 | 151 | 171 | 198 |
TOTAL | 1,705 | 1,600 | 1,800 | 480 | 418 | 464 |
Consumption
South Africa consumes about1.2 million tons of oilseed oil per annum. Post estimates that the consumption of oilseed oil will grow by only about three percent in the 2014/15 MY and by another three percent in 2015/16 MY. Economic growth is the main overall driver for the increase in the demand for oilseed oil and, as already mentioned, South Africa's economic growth is expected to remain sluggish at less than two percent growth per annum in 2015 and 2016.
The consumption of soybean oil, sunflower oil and palm oil in South Africa
Oilseeds (1,000MT) | |||
Marketing year | 2013/14 | 2014/15 | 2015/16 |
Sunflower oil | 410 | 350 | 350 |
Soybean oil | 230 | 270 | 300 |
Palm oil | 430 | 460 | 460 |
Other oils | 80 | 100 | 100 |
TOTAL | 1,150 | 1,180 | 1,210 |
Trade
South Africa imported about 825,000 tons of vegetable oil in the 2013/14 MY, marginally more than in the previous season. Major oils imported included palm oil (435,000 tons), soybean oil (170,000 tons) and sunflower oil (135,000 tons).
For the 2014/15 MY, post expects oilseed oil imports to increase by 11 percent to 915,000 tons, due to a decreased in oilseeds crushed because of the drought. Post estimates South Africa will import about 155,000 tons of sunflower oil and 190,000 of soybean oil in the 2014/15 MY to augment local oil production. In the 2015/16 MY, oilseed oil imports should drop to about 900,000 tons, due to an increase of oilseed being crushed. Sunflower oil imports are expected to drop to about 140,000 tons, while soybean oil imports should be on the same level at 190,000 tons.
South Africa also exports oilseed oils to neighboring countries such as Zimbabwe and Mozambique. In the 2013/14 MY, South Africa exported almost 155,000 tons of oilseed oil, including 55,000 tons of sunflower seed oil, 90,000 tons of soybean oil and 8,000 tons of palm oil. These exports are expected to continue at the same levels in the 2014/15 MY and 2015/16 MY.
Oil, Sunflower seed | 2013/2014 | 2014/2015 | 2015/2016 | |||
Market Begin Year | Mar 2013 | Mar 2014 | Mar 2015 | |||
South Africa | USDA Official | New post | USDA Official | New post | USDA Official | New post |
Crush | 800 | 865 | 800 | 650 | 0 | 700 |
Beginning Stocks | 51 | 51 | 46 | 50 | 0 | 47 |
Production | 335 | 329 | 335 | 247 | 0 | 266 |
MY Imports | 100 | 135 | 100 | 155 | 0 | 140 |
MY Imp. from U.S. | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
MY Imp. from EU | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Total Supply | 486 | 515 | 481 | 452 | 0 | 453 |
MY Exports | 40 | 55 | 40 | 55 | 0 | 55 |
MY Exp. to EU | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Industrial Dom. Cons. | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Food Use Dom. Cons. | 400 | 410 | 400 | 350 | 0 | 350 |
Feed Waste Dom. Cons. | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Total Dom. Cons. | 400 | 410 | 400 | 350 | 0 | 350 |
Ending Stocks | 46 | 50 | 41 | 47 | 0 | 48 |
Total Distribution | 486 | 515 | 481 | 452 | 0 | 453 |
1000 MT, PERCENT |
Oil, Soybean | 2013/2014 | 2014/2015 | 2015/2016 | |||
Market Begin Year | Mar 2013 | Mar 2014 | Mar 2015 | |||
South Africa | USDA Official | New post | USDA Official | New post | USDA Official | New post |
Crush | 750 | 840 | 800 | 950 | 0 | 1,100 |
Beginning Stocks | 24 | 24 | 9 | 25 | 0 | 26 |
Production | 137 | 151 | 146 | 171 | 0 | 198 |
MY Imports | 195 | 170 | 210 | 190 | 0 | 190 |
MY Imp. from U.S. | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
MY Imp. from EU | 100 | 170 | 130 | 190 | 0 | 0 |
Total Supply | 356 | 345 | 365 | 386 | 0 | 414 |
MY Exports | 90 | 90 | 98 | 90 | 0 | 90 |
MY Exp. to EU | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Industrial Dom. Cons. | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Food Use Dom. Cons. | 257 | 230 | 256 | 270 | 0 | 300 |
Feed Waste Dom. Cons. | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Total Dom. Cons. | 257 | 230 | 256 | 270 | 0 | 300 |
Ending Stocks | 9 | 25 | 11 | 26 | 0 | 24 |
Total Distribution | 356 | 345 | 365 | 386 | 0 | 414 |
1000 MT, PERCENT |