Crop consultant Dr. Michael Cordonnierraises both his Argentine corn and soybean crop estimates by 1 MMT from last week to 23 MMT and 57 MMT, respectively, due to favorable weather. He notes soil moisture has improved for the majority of the crop area and crops are rated "good" to "very good." As a result, he has a neutral to higher bias toward both crops and says while the near-term forecast looks relatively dry, soils in Argentine have a high water holding capacity which lowers the concern of a short-term drying period.

Meanwhile, Cordonnier left his Brazilian corn and soybean crop pegs unchanged at 93 MMT and 74 MMT, respectively. He says the improved rainfall pattern of the last several weeks has helped to stabilize the later-maturing soybeans that are currently filling pods. But he adds, "Even though the weather improved, the rainfall did not return to normal levels and there is still a concern about a lack of moisture in parts of eastern Brazil."

Cordonnier has a neutral to slightly lower bias toward the Brazilian bean crop due to lingering dryness in northeastern and far southern Brazil. He also has a neutral to lower bias toward the Brazilian corn crop.

Dr. Cordonnier 2014-15
Soybean Estimates

Est

Max

Min

2013/14

in million metric tons

Brazil

93.0

96.0

90.0

86.7

Argentina

57.0

59.0

55.0

54.0

Paraguay

8.5

8.7

8.0

8.1

Bolivia

2.5

2.7

2.2

2.4

Uruguay

3.5

3.7

3.3

3.5

Total

164.5

170.1

158.5

154.7

Dr. Cordonnier 2014-15

Corn Estimates

Est

Max

Min

2013/14

in million metric tons

Brazil

74.0

78.0

65.0

79.3

Argentina

23.0

24.0

21.0

25.0

Paraguay

3.0

3.2

2.8

2.5

Bolivia

0.7

0.8

0.6

0.7

Uruguay

0.4

0.5

0.3

0.4

Total

101.1

106.5

89.7

107.9