PROJECTION FOR 2019/20

Global 2019/20 oilseed production is forecast at 577 million tons, a 2-million-ton increase from January primarily driven by larger crops of soybean and sunflowerseed. Oilseed crush is raised 2 million tons to 498 million on higher soybean crush in China. Oilseed ending stocks are revised up 2 million tons mainly on higher Brazil production and China stock rebuilding.

Protein meal production is up 1 million tons from last month to 340 million tons primarily on higher soybean meal production in China, Ukraine, and Bangladesh. Protein meal ending stocks are slightly down from December. Vegetable oil production is down 1 million tons and oil ending stocks are down 2 million tons on declines in palm oil production. The projected U.S. season-average farm price for soybeans is lowered by $0.25 to $8.75 per bushel.

EXPORT PRICES

Both U.S. soybean and soybean meal export prices fell slightly in January, while Brazil and Argentina meal prices strengthened. U.S. Gulf FOB soybean export bids in January averaged $361/ton, down $2 from December. Brazil Paranagua FOB averaged $359/ton, down $10 from December. Argentina Up River FOB averaged $361/ton, down $6. The soybean price spread continues to narrow. U.S. soybean meal export bids in January averaged $340/ton, down $4 from December. Brazil Paranagua FOB averaged $321/ton, up $5 from December, and Argentina Up River FOB averaged $336/ton, up $5.

EXPORT SALES

For the report ending January 30, 2020, U.S. soybean accumulated exports (shipments) to China totaled 11.4 million tons and 11.8 million to the rest of the world. Outstanding sales were 611,000 tons to China and 3.3 million to the rest of the world. Last year at this time, accumulated exports to China were 474,000 tons and 12.7 million to the rest of the world, and outstanding sales to China were 3.0 million tons and 12.3 million to the rest of the world. U.S. soybean export commitments (outstanding sales plus accumulated exports) to China totaled 12.0 million tons compared to 3.5 million a year ago. Total commitments to the world were 32.3 million tons, compared to 30.4 million for the same period last year.

Palm Oil Exports Constrained By Lower Exportable Supplies

Growth in global palm oil exports is forecast to slow to 2.2 percent in marketing year (MY) 2019/20 due to limited available supplies from Malaysia and Indonesia. In Indonesia, the adoption of a nationwide B30 biodiesel blending mandate last month will boost domestic demand signficantly, reducing exportable supplies. Exports will also be limited by slowing production as Indonesia production is forecast to grow just 2.4 percent in MY 2019/20, the second-lowest growth rate in 20 years. Exportable supplies in Malaysia are also reduced this month due to lower production, which is forecast down 4.8 percent.

Despite slower supply growth, demand for palm oil remains high on steady population and income growth. In MY 2018/19, global consumption of palm oil grew at more than double the rate of production. In MY 2019/20, this trend will continue with global consumption exceeding production by 1.8 million tons, an amount greater than total U.S. consumption in MY 2018/19. To meet demand, stocks will be drawn down, resulting in the lowest stocks since 2009/10 and the lowest ending stocks-touse ratio in over 25 years.