Comparative table of StatsCan data and market expectations

(mln tonnes)

Statscan

2019

Average estimate

Statscan

2018

All wheat

24.982

24.6

25.109

Durum

4.516

4.2

5.478

Canola

14.271

14.4

14.618

Oats

2.671

2.7

2.406

Barley

5.959

6.3

4.943

As of December 31, 2019, total stocks of barley, oats and dry peas were all up compared with the same date in 2018, while total stocks of wheat, canola, corn for grain, lentils and soybeans were down.

Because of poor weather conditions during harvest, a substantial amount of crops likely remained unharvested at the time of the survey. Farmers were asked to include only crops harvested and currently in storage when reporting stocks of principal field crops. Crops harvested after the collection period for the December survey will be included in later surveys.

Wheat

Total wheat stocks were down 0.5% year over year to 25.0 million tonnes as of December 31, 2019. On-farm stocks were up 1.5% to 20.8 million tonnes, while commercial stocks decreased 9.6% to 4.2 million tonnes.

Despite a 0.5% increase in total wheat production at the national level in 2019, lower carry-in stocks (down 10.3% from the previous year to 6.0 million tonnes) were responsible for the drop in total stocks. Lower wheat exports compared with the same period a year earlier contributed to the decrease in commercial stocks.

Canola

Overall, stocks of canola were down 2.4% year over year to 14.3 million tonnes as of December 31, 2019. This decrease was attributable to a 5.9% decline in on-farm stocks to 12.4 million tonnes, which offset a 28.6% increase in commercial stocks to 1.9 million tonnes.

Despite higher carry-in stocks (+52.9%), lower canola production in 2019, coupled with higher industrial use (+8.0%), led to the decline in total canola stocks. Canola exports were down 14.7%, or 641 100 tonnes, year over year, largely because of lower exports to China.

Corn for grain

Total stocks of corn for grain were down 8.1% year over year to 10.7 million tonnes as of December 31, 2019. On-farm stocks fell 5.8%, while commercial stocks decreased 14.3%.

Lower production in 2019 and lower carry-in stocks from the previous crop year were responsible for the decrease in total corn stocks.

Soybeans

Nationally, soybean stocks fell 9.4% year over year to 3.9 million tonnes as of December 31, 2019. On-farm stocks, down 14.2% to 2.4 million tonnes, were responsible for the decrease, while commercial stocks were unchanged.

Barley

Barley stocks rose 20.6% year over year to 6.0 million tonnes as of December 31, 2019. On-farm stocks were largely responsible for the increase, rising 19.5% to 5.6 million tonnes. Commercial stocks increased 36.5% to 403 900 tonnes.

Barley production rose 23.9% to 10.4 million tonnes in 2019, offsetting record low carry-in stocks and pushing total stocks higher.

Oats

Nationally, stocks of oats rose 11.0% year over year to 2.7 million tonnes as of December 31, 2019. Both on-farm stocks (+9.0%) and commercial stocks (+30.9%) contributed to the increase.

Dry peas and lentils

Stocks of dry peas rose 3.2% year over year to 2.6 million tonnes as of December 31, 2019. On-farm stocks (up 8.0% to 2.4 million tonnes) were responsible for the increase, which offset a 26.7% decrease in commercial stocks.

Meanwhile, stocks of lentils were down 14.9%. On-farm stocks decreased 14.3% to 1.6 million tonnes, while commercial stocks fell 19.9% to 180 700 tonnes.

The decline in the total stocks of lentils was attributable to lower carry-in stocks (-27.7%), higher exports (+18.6%) and greater domestic disappearance (+39.6%).

Total stocks of principal field crops at December 31

 

December 2017

December 2018

December 2019

December 2017 to December 2018

December 2018 to December 2019

 

thousands of tonnes

% change

Total wheat

24 236

25 109

24 982

3.6

-0.5

Durum wheat

4 781

5 478

4 516

14.6

-17.6

Wheat excluding durum

19 454

19 631

20 467

0.9

4.3

Barley

6 033

4 943

5 959

-18.1

20.6

Canola 

13 938

14 618

14 271

4.9

-2.4

Corn for grain

12 420

11 628

10 686

-6.4

-8.1

Dry field peas

2 823

2 550

2 632

-9.7

3.2

Flaxseed

521

410

380

-21.3

-7.3

Lentils

2 111

2 116

1 801

0.2

-14.9

Oats

2 883

2 406

2 671

-16.5

11.0

Rye

335

169

187

-49.6

10.7

Soybeans

4 365

4 277

3 874

-2.0

-9.4