Comparative table of StatCan data and market expectations

Statscan Dec 2019

Average estimate

Range of estimates

Statscan Sept 2019

Statscan

2018

All wheat

32.3

32.6

31.4-34.5

32.5

32.2

Durum

5.0

5.0

4.6-5.3

5.0

5.7

Canola

18.6

19.6

18.6-20.8

19.4

20.3

Oats

4.2

3.9

3.7-4.1

4.0

3.4

Barley

10.4

9.8

9.3-10.3

10.0

8.4

Corn

13.4

13.7

13.4-14

14.1

13.9

Soybeans

6.0

6.1

6-6.2

6.5

7.4

Lentils

2.2

2.4

2.3-2.5

2.5

2.1

Flax

0.486

0.567

0.52-0.6

0.577

0.492

Peas

4.2

4.5

4.2-4.7

4.7 

3.6


Canadian farmers reported producing more wheat, barley and oats in 2019, while canola, corn for grain and soybean production were all down from a year earlier.
The 2019 crop year was a difficult one for many farmers nationally. Heavy rain, coupled with colder than normal temperatures, made planting conditions difficult in much of Eastern Canada early in the crop year, while overly dry conditions in parts of Western Canada persisted well into the growing season. At the time of harvest, higher than average precipitation across Canada, including early snow in the Prairies, slowed harvest for many farmers and will likely result in unharvested crops remaining on the field over the winter.
Despite delays in harvesting, farmers were asked to provide their best estimates of yield and production for all area harvested or to be harvested for the 2019/2020 crop year.
Wheat

From 2018 to 2019, total wheat production rose 0.5% to 32.3 million tonnes, driven by higher yields, up 2.7% to 49.8 bushels per acre. However, harvested area decreased 2.3% to 23.9 million acres.

In Saskatchewan, wheat farmers reported that yields rose 5.0% to 44.4 bushels per acre, while harvested area decreased 2.1% to 12.5 million acres. Wheat production in Saskatchewan rose 2.7% to 15.1 million tonnes.

Wheat farmers in Alberta reported that production rose 2.6% to 10.3 million tonnes, driven by higher yields, up 5.2% to 52.3 bushels per acre. Meanwhile, harvested area decreased 2.5% to 7.2 million acres.

Manitoba farmers reported that yields fell 1.8% to 59.8 bushels per acre in 2019. Despite the decrease in yields, harvested area rose 5.7% to 3.1 million acres, resulting in a 3.7% production increase to 5.0 million tonnes.

Canola

Canola production decreased 8.3% nationally to 18.6 million tonnes in 2019—its lowest level since 2015. Lower production was largely attributable to lower harvested area, which fell 8.8% year over year to 20.6 million acres. Despite a dry start to the growing season in parts of Western Canada and poor conditions throughout the Prairies during the harvest, yields rose 0.5% to 40.0 bushels per acre.

Saskatchewan, Canada's largest canola-producing province, led the decrease with farmers reporting a 7.3% drop in production to 10.1 million tonnes. This decrease was attributable to lower harvested area, which declined 7.1% to 11.4 million acres. Yields were unchanged from 2018, at 39.3 bushels per acre.

Farmers in Alberta reported that canola yields rose 3.9% to 40.3 bushels per acre in 2019. Despite the increase in yield, harvested area fell 12.9% to 5.8 million acres, bringing total production down 9.4% to 5.3 million tonnes.

Harvested area in Manitoba declined 5.0% to 3.2 million acres in 2019, while yields fell 3.0% to 42.0 bushels per acre. As a result, canola production in the province was down 7.9% to 3.1 million tonnes in 2019.

Corn for grain

Nationally, farmers reported that corn for grain production fell 3.5% to 13.4 million tonnes in 2019. The decrease stemmed from lower yields, which fell 4.8% to 147.2 bushels per acre. The decline was partially offset by a 1.4% increase in harvested area. Corn production was likely affected by cold and wet conditions during the spring, which delayed planting, as well as dry conditions throughout the growing season and poor weather during harvest in Ontario and Quebec, where approximately 85% of the corn in Canada is grown.

Ontario farmers reported that harvested area increased 3.2% to 2.1 million acres in 2019. The increase in area was offset by lower yields, which fell 4.6% to 158.4 bushels per acre, bringing production down 1.5% from 2018 to 8.6 million tonnes.

Farmers in Quebec reported that harvested area edged down 1.0% to 938,000 acres in 2019. Despite the relatively stable acreage, yields fell 6.0% to 141.4 bushels per acre, contributing to a 6.9% decrease in production to 3.4 million tonnes.

Soybeans

Nationally, soybean production fell 18.5% to 6.0 million tonnes in 2019. The decrease was attributable to lower harvested area (down 10.6% to 5.6 million acres) and yields (down 8.8% to 39.6 bushels per acre). Poor weather conditions throughout the major soybean-producing provinces likely contributed to the decrease in yields from a year earlier.

Harvested area in Ontario increased 2.8% to 3.1 million acres in 2019. Despite higher harvested area, farmers reported that yields fell 7.3 bushels per acre to 44.1 bushels per acre, bringing production down 11.7% to 3.7 million tonnes.

Farmers in Manitoba reported a lower harvested area for the second consecutive year, down 24.5% to 1.4 million acres in 2019. Yields fell 14.1% to 29.2 bushels per acre, bringing production down 35.2% from 2018 to 1.1 million tonnes—the lowest level in the province since 2014.

Farmers in Quebec reported that yields fell 9.2% to 42.6 bushels per acre in 2019. Harvested acres were down 1.1% to 903,100 acres. As a result, soybean production was down 10.1% to 1.0 million tonnes.

Barley and oats

Nationally, farmers reported that barley production rose 23.9% to 10.4 million tonnes in 2019. Harvested area was up 13.9% to 6.7 million acres, while yields rose 8.9% to 70.8 bushels per acre.

Farmers reported that oat production rose 21.0% to 4.2 million tonnes in 2019. The increase in oat production was driven by higher yields (up 4.9% to 94.1 bushels per acre) and harvested area (up 15.4% to 2.9 million acres).

November estimates of production of principal field crops

 

2017

2018

2019

2017 to 2018

2018 to 2019

 

thousands of tonnes

% change

Total wheat

30 377

32 201

32 348

6.0

0.5

Durum wheat

4 962

5 745

4 977

15.8

-13.4

Spring wheat

22 560

23 942

25 670

6.1

7.2

Winter wheat

2 855

2 514

1 701

-12.0

-32.4

Barley

7 891

8 380

10 383

6.2

23.9

Canary seed

145

158

125

8.7

-20.9

Canola

21 328

20 343

18 649

-4.6

-8.3

Chick peas

96

311

252

225.6

-19.2

Corn for grain

14 096

13 885

13 404

-1.5

-3.5

Dry beans

322

341

317

5.8

-7.1

Dry field peas

4 112

3 581

4 237

-12.9

18.3

Fall rye

341

226

326

-33.8

44.1

Flaxseed

555

492

486

-11.3

-1.3

Lentils

2 559

2 092

2 167

-18.2

3.6

Mustard seed

122

174

135

42.8

-22.5

Oats

3 733

3 436

4 157

-8.0

21.0

Soybeans

7 717

7 417

6 045

-3.9

-18.5

Sunflower seed

58

57

63

-0.5

9.8