Comparative table of StatCan data and market expectations

(mln tonnes)

Statscan

2019

Average estimate

Statscan

2018

All wheat

31.3

32.3

32.2

Durum

4.4

5.1

5.7

Canola

18.5

18.9

20.3

Corn

13.6

14.0

13.9

Barley

9.6

9.7

8.4

Peas

4.5

4.5

3.6

Oats

4.0

4.0

3.4

Soybeans

6.2

6.3

7.3

Flax

0.56

0.54

0.49

Farmers across Canada anticipate producing less wheat, canola, corn for grain and soybeans in 2019 from a year earlier, but more barley and oats, according to results from the July field crop survey.

Despite dry conditions across the Prairies early in the growing season, timely rain beginning in late June and early July helped to increase crop health in several parts of Western Canada, notably throughout parts of Saskatchewan and southern Manitoba.

A comparison of precipitation from earlier in the growing season to mid-July, during collection of the July field crop survey, shows that moisture conditions have improved noticeably.

Results of the Crop Condition Assessment Program show that overall plant growth improved in many parts of Western Canada throughout July as survey collection progressed. Cool and wet spring weather in Eastern Canada resulted in poor planting conditions and contributed to slow crop development early in the season. During the collection period, the situation improved in southern Ontario and eastern Quebec.

Wheat production is expected to decline due to lower harvested area and yields

Nationally, wheat production is anticipated to fall 2.9% from a year earlier to 31.3 million tonnes in 2019, driven by a 1.1% decline in harvested area. Yields are expected to decline 2.1% to 47.5 bushels per acre.

The anticipated decrease in wheat production is largely attributable to lower winter wheat and durum wheat production, due to fewer planted and harvested acres in 2019. Conversely, spring wheat area and production are both expected to increase.

In Saskatchewan, producers expect wheat production to decline 3.9% year over year to 14.1 million tonnes, driven by lower anticipated yields, down 3.3% to 40.9 bushels per acre. Farmers expect the harvested area to edge down 0.6% to 12.7 million acres.

Wheat farmers in Alberta anticipate that yields will increase 2.4% to 50.9 bushels per acre in 2019. Despite a 1.8% drop in harvested area, total wheat production is expected to rise 0.5% to 10.1 million tonnes.

Wheat production in Manitoba is estimated to rise 5.5% to 5.1 million tonnes in 2019, the result of a larger harvested area, up 7.8% to 3.1 million acres. Yields are estimated to be stable at 59.6 bushels per acre.

Ontario farmers expect wheat production (most of which is winter wheat) to fall by 29.4% to 1.6 million tonnes. This is the result of lower harvested acres (-24.8%) and yields (-6.2%). The anticipated decrease in harvested area is attributable to harsh winter and spring weather conditions.

Canola production is expected to increase in Manitoba and decline in Saskatchewan and Alberta

Nationally, farmers anticipate producing 18.5 million tonnes of canola in 2019, down 9.3% from 2018, driven largely by an 8.3% decrease in harvested area to 20.7 million acres. Lower harvested areas may be attributable to a decline in seeded area following the ongoing trade issues surrounding the limited access to Chinese export markets. Despite a dry start to the year, increased moisture beginning in late June helped crop development, resulting in farmers reporting an expected average yield of 39.4 bushels per acre, down 1.0% from the previous year.

In Saskatchewan, farmers expect to produce less canola compared with the previous year, down 12.4% to 9.6 million tonnes. This decrease is attributable to a 7.1% decline in harvested area from the previous year. Yields are anticipated to decrease 5.6% to 37.1 bushels per acre.

Farmers in Alberta expect canola yields to increase 3.4% to 40.1 bushels per acre in 2019. Despite higher anticipated yields, a 12.6% decrease in harvested area contributed to an anticipated 9.4% decrease in production to 5.3 million tonnes.

Yields in Manitoba are estimated at 45.8 bushels per acre in 2019. Despite an anticipated decline of 2.5% in harvested area, production is expected to increase to 3.4 million tonnes (+3.1%).

Lower corn for grain production expected in Central Canada

Nationally, farmers expect to produce less corn for grain compared with the previous year, down 2.0% to 13.6 million tonnes in 2019. Despite increased harvested area, up 2.3% to 3.6 million acres, yields are expected to decrease 4.1% to 148.2 bushels per acre. Both area and yields were likely affected by highly variable weather throughout the year. Poor planting conditions throughout Eastern Canada due to cold and wet conditions caused some farmers to delay planting. Ontario and Quebec received considerable heat combined with little rain throughout July, and this may have further affected the corn for grain crop.

Farmers in Ontario, the largest corn for grain producing province, expect yields to fall 6.0% from the previous year to 156.1 bushels per acre in 2019. Harvested area is expected to increase 4.6% compared with the previous year. As a result, overall production in Ontario is anticipated to fall 1.6% to 8.6 million tonnes.

In Quebec, corn for grain farmers are expecting production to fall 8.6% to 3.3 million tonnes in 2019, due to lower anticipated harvested area (-2.0%, to 928,700 acres). Yields are expected to decrease 6.8% to 140.2 bushels per acre.

Soybean production is expected to fall

Nationally, farmers anticipate that soybean yields will fall 5.4% to 40.2 bushels per acre in 2019. Harvested area is expected to decline 9.7% to 5.7 million acres, resulting in a 14.6% production decline to 6.2 million tonnes.

Like corn for grain, poor spring planting conditions in Eastern Canada, coupled with increasingly hot and dry conditions throughout July, likely contributed to lower yields in Quebec and Ontario. Combined, these two provinces account for the majority of soybeans produced in Canada.

Soybean farmers in Ontario expect production to decrease 12.5% to 3.7 million tonnes in 2019. Harvested area is expected to rise 3.0% to 3.1 million acres, while yield is anticipated to decline 15.2% to 43.6 bushels per acre.

In Manitoba, soybean production is estimated to decline 18.7% to 1.3 million tonnes in 2019, mainly as a result of a 22.3% decrease in harvested area. Yields are estimated at 32.5 bushels per acre in 2019. Lower harvested areas are attributable to farmers in the province choosing to reduce seeded area after several years of lower yields due to dry conditions.

In Quebec, farmers expect soybean yields to decline 8.1% to 43.1 bushels per acre in 2019. Harvested area is expected to decrease 1.4% to 900,100 acres. As a result, production is anticipated to fall 9.3% to 1.1 million tonnes in 2019.

Farmers anticipate harvesting more barley and oats

Nationally, farmers expect to produce 15.1% more barley than a year earlier, with production totalling 9.6 million tonnes in 2019. The increase is driven by higher harvested area (+12.8%, to 6.7 million acres). Yields are expected to increase 2.2% to 66.4 bushels per acre. Both Saskatchewan and Alberta, the two largest barley producing provinces, reported an increase in harvested area and production.

Oat production is anticipated to increase 15.0% to 4.0 million tonnes, a result of greater harvested area (+15.2%, to 2.9 million acres). Yields are expected to be stable at 89.6 bushels per acre.

July estimates of production of principal field crops

2017

2018

2019

2017 to 2018

2018 to 2019

 thousands of tonnes


% change

Total wheat

30 377

32 201

31 251

6.0

-2.9

Durum wheat

4 962

5 745

4 420

15.8

-23.1

Spring wheat

22 560

23 942

25 108

6.1

4.9

Winter wheat

2 855

2 514

1 725

-12.0

-31.4

Barley

7 891

8 380

9 644

6.2

15.1

Canary seed

145

118

70

-18.8

-40.7

Canola

21 328

20 343

18 453

-4.6

-9.3

Chick peas

96

311

251

225.6

-19.3

Corn for grain

14 096

13 885

13 606

-1.5

-2.0

Dry beans

322

341

368

5.8

7.8

Dry field peas

4 112

3 581

4 528

-12.9

26.5

Fall rye

342

226

283

-33.8

25.0

Flaxseed

555

492

558

-11.3

13.4

Lentils

2 559

2 092

2 384

-18.2

13.9

Mustard seed

122

174

156

42.8

-10.1

Oats

3 733

3 436

3 953

-8.0

15.0

Soybeans

7 717

7 267

6 204

-5.8

-14.6

Sunflower seed

58

57

50

-0.5

-13.4