WHEAT

- July 12 - South Korea's Major Feedmill Group (MFG) made no purchase in its tender for 60,000 MT of optional-origin feed wheat for January 20, 2020 arrival, citing too high prices

- July 10 - Two South Korean flour mills bought about 80,000 MT of US milling wheat (including soft white wheat, hard red winter and northern spring):

  • Sajo Donga One bought about 30,000 MT from ADM for Sept 20-Oct 20 shipment;
  • CJ Cheiljedang bought about 50,000 MT from Bunge for Sept 1-30 shipment

- Weekly US wheat export sales data for week ended July 4 totaled 284,400 MT for 2019/20, near the low end of market expectations (250-550 TMT). Export commitments for 2019/20 are running 22% ahead of year-ago

- USDA upped forecast of the total US wheat crop for the 2019/20 marketing year by 18 milllion bushels to 1.921 billion bushels, above the average analyst estimate for 1.908 billion and up 2% from the prior year. Meanwhile the forecast of US wheat ending stocks for 2019/20 came in below the average trade expectations

- USDA cut forecast of global wheat crop in 2019/20 by 9.37 MMT to 771.46 MMT, up 5.5% (or 40.56 MMT) from the 2018/19. Global production is lowered this month as smaller crops in Russia, the EU, Australia, Canada, and Ukraine more than offset a larger US crop. Global trade is lowered, mainly on reduced imports for Indonesia and Vietnam. Exports are projected lower for Australia, Russia, and Ukraine, creating further opportunities for the European Union and the United States. USDA lowered forecast of 2019/20 world wheat inventories by 7.88 MMT to 286.46 MMT, below average expectation of 292.43 MMT and vs. 275.15 MMT in 2018/19

- Russia’s Ag Min left its 2019/20 grain export estimate unchanged this month at 45 MMT, including 36 MMT of wheat; total grain production was pegged at 118 MMT in 2019, with wheat at 75 MMT

- Russian farmers as of July 12 have harvested 26.8 MMT of wheat from 7.1 million ha with the average yield of 3.79 mt/ha (3.9 mt/ha a year ago)

- Ukrainian farmers have threshed 10.206 MMT of winter wheat from 44.7% area with the average yield of 3.54 mt/ha as of July 12

- Strategie Grains cut its forecast of EU 2019 soft wheat crop to 140.6 MMT from 142.8 MMT previously, but up 11% versus last year (127.1 MMT in 2018)

- FranceAgriMer estimated 73% of French soft wheat crops were in good/excellent condition by July 8, down 2% points from week earlier and vs. 72% a year ago. Harvesting of soft wheat was now under way, with 9% of the crop cut by July 8 (1% a week-ago), below the 20% harvest progress a year ago

- UK exported 30,760 MT of wheat in May, up from 4,586 MT in April. Cumulative exports for the season, which started on July 1, 2018, totalled 310,207 MT vs. 432,555 MT during the same period prior season

- UK imported 107,956 MT of wheat in May, up from 69,403 MT in April. Britain’s Jul-May 2018/19 wheat imports totalled 1.688 MMT vs. 1.502 MMT a year ago. Bulgaria was the largest supplier in the 11-month period from July-May (279,526 MT), narrowly ahead of Canada (276,199) and France (275,616)

- Conab lifted its estimate for 2019 wheat production to 5.489 MMT from 5.474 MMT previously (5.428 MMT in 2018). They kept its forecast of 2019 wheat imports at 7.2 MMT (6.8 MMT in 2018)

CORN

- July 12 - USDA announced export sales of 104,100 MT of US corn for delivery to Panama during 2019/20

- July 11 - China sold 748,323 MT of corn from state reserves, or 18.8% of the offered amount (3.974 MMT), at average price of 1,675 RMB/mt

- Weekly US corn export sales data for week ended July 4 totaled 397,000 MT, incl. 505,400 MT for 2018/19, topped expectations (150-400 TMT), and net cancellation of 108,400 MT for 2019/20, below expectations (100-300 TMT). Export commitments for 2018/19 are running 15% behind of year-ago

- USDA's forecast of US corn ending stocks for 2019/20 came in above the range of trade expectations. Also USDA issued a surprise increase in its forecast of US corn production

- USDA raised forecast of global corn production in 2019/20 by 5.95 MMT to 1,105 MMT, down 1.6% (or 17.55 MMT) from last year, with larger crops for the US and Ukraine. Global trade is up slightly from last month driven by larger imports for Zimbabwe. On the exporter side, higher exports for Ukraine offset a reduction for Brazil. USDA upped forecast of 2019/20 global corn ending stocks by 8.4 MMT to 298.92 MMT, topping the range of trade expectations but down from 328.75 MMT in 2018/19

- Conab raised its forecast of Brazil's 2018/19 corn crop to 98.504 MMT from 97.01 MMT in June (80.71 MMT last season) with second crop at 72.351 MMT (53.899 MMT in 2017/18). Conab upped forecast of corn exports by 1.5 MMT to 33.5 MMT (23.82 MMT in 2017/18). Ending stocks are forecasted to rise to 18.194 MMT from 15.605 MT in 2017/18

- China's Ag Min lowered forecast of 2019 corn output to 253.44 MMT from 254.35 MMT previously (257.33 MMT in 2018). China’s 2019/20 corn imports are forecasted at 3 MMT (3.3 MMT in 2018/19). China’s Ag Min cut 2019/20 corn consumption forecast by 2 MMT to 280.8 MMT, due to outbreaks of African swine fever across the country causing lower pig feed demand

- Ukrainian farmers have harvested 3.35 MMT of winter barley from 93.4% area with the average yield of 3.57 mt/ha as of June 27; also 1.158 MMT of spring barley from 29.1% area with yield of 2.66 mt/ha; and 479,800 MT of peas from 75.5% area with yield of 2.22 mt/ha

- Ukraine's Ag Min said Ukraine exported about 1.009 MMT of grain between July 1-12, 2019 vs. 594,000 MT for the same period of last year, including 122,000 MT of wheat (149,000 MT a year ago), 817,000 MT of corn (235,000 MT) and 69,000 MT of barley (210,000 MT)

- Strategie Grains lowered its forecast of EU 2019 barley crop to 59.3 MMT from 59.6 MMT previously, still 7% above the 2018/19 crop (55.7 MMT)

- Strategie Grains cut its forecast of EU 2019 corn crop to 62.7 MMT from 63.4 MMT previously, a 2% increase on 2018/19 (61.7 MMT)

- FranceAgriMer estimated 78% of corn crops were in good/excellent condition by July 8, down 1% point from prior week and vs. 73% a year ago

- FranceAgriMer estimated 73% of French winter barley crops were in good/excellent condition by July 8, unchanged from prior week and vs. 69% a year ago. Spring barley rating was at 72% in good to excellent vs. 75% last week and vs. 76% a year ago. Harvesting of winter barley was now under way, with 80% of the crop cut by July 8 (22% a week-ago), below the 92% harvest progress a year ago. They also harvested 12% of spring barley vs. 0% a week ago and 7% a year ago

- UK exported 50,957 MT of barley in May, up from 26,61 MT in April. Cumulative exports for the season, which started on July 1, 2018, totalled 814,517 MT vs. 1.067 MMT during the same period prior season

- UK imported 279,297 MT of corn in May, up from 220,723 MT in April. Britain’s Jul-May 2018/19 corn imports totalled 2.636 MMT vs. 1.87 MMT a year ago. Ukraine was the main supplier in the 11-month period (862,426 MT), followed by Canada (398,675)

SOYBEAN

- July 12 - South Korea’s Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade Corp bought 11,000 MT of non-GM soybeans:

  • 5,000 MT at 619.87 $/mt for Oct 1-Nov 15 arrival;
  • 3,000 MT at 619.47 $/mt and 3,000 MT at 637.00 $/mt for Aug 1-Sept 30 arrival

- Weekly US soybeans export sales data for week ended July 4 totaled 261,700 MT, incl. 132,200 MT for 2018/19, below expectations (200-400 TMT). Export commitments for 2018/19 are running 15% behind of year-ago

- Weekly US soymeal export sales data for week ended July 4 of 52,600 MT, incl. 44,900 MT for 2018/19, below expectations (50-200 TMT). Export commitments for 2018/19 are running 2% behind of year-ago

- USDA's forecast of US soybean ending stocks for 2019/20 came in below the average trade expectations. USDA lowered its US soy yield forecast by 1.0 bushel to 48.5 bushels per acre (bpa), as expected

- USDA cut forecast of global soybean production in 2019/20 by 8.35 MMT to 347.04 MMT, down 4.4% (or 15.83 MMT) from last year’s record, due to lower US’s crop. USDA lowered forecast global soybean ending stocks by 8.13 MMT to 104.53 MMT by the end of 2019/20, down 8.46 MMT from record level of 2018/19 and below average expectation (109.17 MMT)

- Conab lifted forecast of Brazil's 2018/19 soy output by 175 TMT to 115.018 MMT, still below the record previous crop of 119.282 MMT. Conab kept its forecast of Brazil soybean exports at 68 MMT (83.258 MMT in 2017/18). Ending stocks are forecasted to recover to 3.359 MMT from 1.391 MMT in 2017/18

- China imported 6.513 MMT of soybeans in June, down 25.2% from the year before. For the first six months of 2019, imports fell to 38.266 MMT, down 14.7% from the same time a year ago

- China's imports of all vegetable oils in June was 805,000 MT up 52.2% on year. China's Jan-Jun vegetable oil imports climbed 44.1% on year to 3.994 MMT

- Ukrainian farmers harvested 1.702 MMT of winter rapeseed from 59.4% area as of July 12, yields totalled 2.22 mt/ha (2.48 mt/ha a year ago)