Comparative table of StatsCan data and market expectations

(mln tonnes)

Statscan

2019

Average estimate

Lowest estimate

Highest estimate

Statscan

2018

All wheat

15.7

15.7

14.8

16.3

16.4

Durum

3.9

3.8

3.6

4.1

3.3

Canola

10.0

10.2

9.8

10.5

9.1

Oats

1.4

1.7

1.5

1.8

2.1

Barley

2.5

2.6

2.3

3.3

3.4

On March 31, 2019, stocks of wheat, barley, corn for grain, oats, dry peas and lentils were down compared with the same date in 2018. Conversely, stocks of canola and soybeans were up year over year. Lower stocks were generally a result of lower on-farm stocks.

Wheat

Total wheat stocks decreased 4.3% from the same day a year earlier to 15.7 million tonnes on March 31. The decrease was led by on-farm stocks, which fell 10.3% year over year to 11.4 million tonnes. In contrast, commercial stocks of wheat were up 16.4% to 4.3 million tonnes.

At the national level, exports of wheat increased 9.1% from the previous year to 15.7 million tonnes on March 31, the highest level on record for this period. Higher exports were likely driven by strong global demand coupled with lower competition from other major wheat-producing countries.

Farm level stocks in Saskatchewan accounted for the greatest proportion of the year-over year decrease, falling 15.8% to 4.9 million tonnes. Alberta reported slightly higher on-farm stocks, rising 0.4% to 4.5 million tonnes.

Canola

Canola stocks increased 10.5% year over year, rising to 10.0 million tonnes on March 31. The increase was led by on-farm stocks which increased 16.5% compared with the previous year to 8.8 million tonnes, while commercial stocks fell 20.0% to 1.2 million tonnes.

Higher stocks on March 31 were a result of fewer deliveries and lower exports in the first quarter of the calendar year. Deliveries continued to be slowed by lower producer prices, which fell from above $500 during the same time in 2018 to under $460 in 2019, and reduced export demand, which in turn was pressured in part by high global oilseed stocks.

Corn for grain

Stocks of corn for grain were down 5.2% compared with the same date one year earlier, to 8.3 million tonnes. The decrease in total corn stocks was led by on-farm stocks which fell 11.9% to 5.9 million tonnes, offsetting an increase in commercial stocks (+16.2%, to 2.4 million tonnes).

Soybeans

Despite a year-over-year increase in exports, record high beginning stocks for the crop year—coupled with higher imports compared with the same date one year earlier—drove soybean stocks higher on March 31. Nationally, total stocks of soybeans were at 2.9 million tonnes on March 31, 4.3% higher than the same date one year earlier. Commercial stocks were responsible for the increase in total soybean stocks, rising 11.8% to 1.2 million tonnes. In contrast, on-farm stocks were down 0.5% to 1.7 million tonnes.

Barley and Oats

Total barley stocks decreased from the same date in 2018, falling 26.6% to 2.5 million tonnes on March 31, a record low for this period. On-farm stocks fell 28.4% to 2.2 million tonnes, while commercial stocks decreased 10.0% to 306 000 tonnes.

Lower year-over-year inventories of barley combined with higher exports to decrease stocks. Low global stocks, strong world prices for feed barley, and low world supplies of malting barley likely drove exports higher (+10.3%) compared with March 31, 2018.

Oat stocks were lower on March 31, declining 33.4% to 1.4 million tonnes from the same date one year earlier. While commercial stocks increased 14.4%, on-farm stocks fell 38.6% to 1.2 million tonnes.

Dry peas and lentils

At the national level, stocks of dry peas fell to 1.7 million tonnes on March 31, 2019, down 25.7% compared with the same date one year earlier. While commercial stocks were up 11.5% to 388 700 tonnes, on-farm stocks offset this increase, falling 32.5% to 1.3 million tonnes.

Total stocks of lentils decreased 15.4% to 1.4 million tonnes compared to the same date one year earlier. The decrease was a result of lower on-farm (-15.6%) and commercial (-14.5%) stocks.

Dry pea exports rose to 2.1 million tonnes from 1.8 million tonnes one year earlier. Despite ongoing tariffs on pea exports to India, exports to other countries such as China and Bangladesh have contributed to the growth in exports. Similarly, exports of lentils grew 41.8% compared with the same date one year earlier to 1.4 million tonnes, despite ongoing tariffs.

Total stocks of principal field crops at March 31

 

March 2017

March 2018

March 2019

March 2017 to March 2018

March 2018 to March 2019

 

thousands of tonnes

% change

Total wheat

17 051

16 394

15 694

-3.9

-4.3

Durum wheat

4 078

3 318

3 915

-18.6

18.0

Wheat excluding durum

12 973

13 076

11 779

0.8

-9.9

Barley

4 560

3 390

2 488

-25.7

-26.6

Canola 

7 928

9 063

10 019

14.3

10.5

Corn for grain

8 375

8 754

8 302

4.5

-5.2

Dry field peas

1 695

2 259

1 679

33.3

-25.7

Flaxseed

417

361

229

-13.4

-36.6

Lentils

1 135

1 612

1 363

42.0

-15.4

Oats

1 750

2 103

1 401

20.2

-33.4

Rye

247

251

93

1.6

-62.9

Soybeans

1 859

2 794

2 913

50.3

4.3