WHEAT

- Oct 24 - Bangladesh seeks 50,000 MT of optional origin milling wheat

- Oct 17 - Jordan seeks 120,000 MT of optional-origin hard milling wheat

- Oct 15 - Syria's Hoboob is seeking 200,000 MT of milling wheat

- Oct 15 - China auctioned 5,270 MT of imported 2013 wheat from state reserves, or 0.6% of the offered amount at average price of 2,169 RMB/mt (313 $/mt)

- Oct 10 - China sold 143,629 MT of wheat from state reserves or 7.1% of the offered amount at auction at average price of 2,427 RMB/mt (351 $/mt)

- Weekly US wheat export sales data for week ended Oct 4 totalled 339,000 MT for 2018/19 (within trade expectations for 300-600 TMT). Export commitments for 2018/19 are running 18% behind of year-ago

- USDA said the US winter wheat crop 57% planted as of Oct 7, ahead average of analysts’ expectations (56%), also above last-year score (46%) and 5-year mean (54%)

- USDA lowered its forecast of global wheat production by 2.1 MMT to 730.9 MMT, down 3.7% (or 27.8 MMT) from the 2017/18 record, down this month mainly from reduced crops in Australia and Russia. Consumption is forecast to exceed production for the first time in 6 years

- USDA lowered forecast of 2018/19 world wheat inventories by 1.12 MMT to 260.18 MMT vs. 274.85 MMT in 2017/18, below average expectation of 261.41 MMT

- Russia’s Ag Min said Russia exported 16.885 MMT of grain between July 1-Oct 11, 2018/19, up 23.7% from 13.647 MMT a year ago, including:

  • wheat – 14.426 MMT (up 36.7% from year ago);
  • barley – 1.834 MMT (down by 12.2%);
  • corn – 470,000 MT (twice down)

- Russian grain stocks were at 45.2 MMT as of Sept 1, 2018, down 10.5% from a year earlier (50.5 MMT as of Sept 1, 2017). The data does not include grain stored at small farms

- Russia has 3,398,600 MT of grain in its federal intervention fund as of Oct 12 vs. 3,967,600 MT year ago

- IKAR raised Russia's 2018 total grain production forecast from 109.4 to 110.5 MMT and wheat crop forecast to 70.5 MMT from 69.8 MMT previously

- SovEcon raised Russia's 2018 total grain production forecast to 109 MMT from 108.3 MMT previously, and wheat crop forecast by 0.8 MMT to 69.8 MMT

- Ukraine's Ag Min said Ukraine exported 10.17 MMT of grain between July 1-Oct 10, 2018/19 vs. 11.2 MMT for the same period last season, including:

  • wheat – 6.03 MMT (6.59 MMT a year ago);
  • corn – 1.73 MMT (1.27 MMT);
  • barley – 2.23 MMT (3.29 MMT)

- Rosario grain exchange cut its forecast of Argentine 2018/19 wheat production to 19 MMT from 21 MMT expected previously

- Conab upped its estimate for 2018 wheat production to 5.394 MMT from 5.239 MMT in September and compared to 4.264 MMT last year. They forecast wheat imports this year at 6.3 MMT (6.387 MMT in 2017)- EU in week ended Oct 5 awarded licenses to import 74,411 MT of reduced-tariff wheat imports of various origins under quotas

- Strategie Grains upped its EU 2018 soft wheat crop forecast from 126.8 to 127 MMT, 10% below 2017/18 (141.9 MMT). They also raised estimate of 2018/19 EU soft wheat exports by 0.6 MMT to 19.4 MMT still down from 20.5 MMT in 2017/18

- UK’s Ag Min estimates 2018 wheat harvest for the UK at a five-year low of 14.086 MMT, a decrease of 5.1% on year (14.837 MMT in 2017)

- FranceAgriMer estimated winter wheat planting 15% done as of October 7, behind of last year’s pace of 16%

- FranceAgriMer estimates French soft wheat production in 2018/19 at 34.192 MMT, down from 36.564 MMT in previous year. FranceAgriMer lowered its forecast for French soft wheat stocks at the end of the 2018/19 to 2.404 MMT from 2.461 MMT projected last month (2.971 MMT in 2017/18). Projected exports outside the EU raised from 8.5 to 8.75 MMT, up 7.8% from 8.117 MMT in 2017/18, while forecast of shipments within the EU was lowered from 8.057 to 7.932 MMT, down 14.4% from 9.268 MMT in 2017/18

CORN

- Oct 16 - Jordan seeks 120,000 MT of optional-origin feed barley

- Oct 11 - USDA announced cancellations of export sales of 140,000 MT of US corn for delivery to unknown destinations during 2018/19

- Oct 12 - China sold 656,845 MT of corn from state reserves, or 16.4% of the offered amount, at average price of 1,443 RMB/mt (209 $/mt)

- Oct 11 - China sold 2,960,822 MT of corn from state reserves, or 74.6% of the offered amount, at average price of 1,540 RMB/mt (222 $/mt)

- Oct 10 - Japan bought 65,410 MT of feed barley for Feb 28 arrival via SBS-tender. New SBS tender for 120,000 MT of feed wheat and 200,000 MT of feed barley will be held on October 17

- Weekly US corn export sales data for week ended Oct 4 totalled 1,006,700 MT for 2018/19 (near the lower end of expectations for 1-1.5 MMT). Export commitments for 2018/19 are running 51% ahead of year-ago

- USDA rated 68% of the US corn crop in good-to-excellent condition as of Oct 7, down 1% point from prior week and matching analysts’ expectations, better than last year’s 64%. USDA estimated 34% of the US corn crop was harvested, in line with analysts' forecasts, above last year’s pace (21%) and the 5-year mean (26%)

- USDA's forecast of US corn ending stocks for 2018/19 came in below the average trade expectations. Also USDA made surprise cut in US yield forecast

- USDA trimmed forecast of global corn production in 2018/19 by 0.7 MMT to 1,068 MMT, up 3.3% (or 34 MMT) from last year, down this month with smaller crops for the US and Russia more than offsetting gains for Egypt, Mali, and Kenya. Global trade is at a record, driven by stronger exports for the US

- USDA upped forecast of 2018/19 global corn ending stocks by 2.32 MMT to 159.35 MMT, in line with trade expectations, but down from 198.21 MMT in 2017/18

- Conab forecast Brazil's 2018/19 corn crop at 89.7-91.1 MMT, more than 80.786 MMT last season with second crop at 63.735 MMT (53.975 MMT in 2017/18). Conab expects Brazil to export 31 MMT of corn (25.5 MMT in 2017/18). Ending stocks are forecasted to decline to 10.597 MMT from 13.288 MT in 2017/18

- Buenos Aires Grain Exchange estimates Argentina’s 2018/19 corn acreage at 5.8 mln ha (5.5 mln ha in 2017/18). About 26.9% of the crop has been planted as of Oct 10

- Rosario grain exchange kept its forecast of Argentine 2018/19 corn crop at 43 MMT

- Strategie Grains raised its forecast of EU's 2018/19 corn production by 1 MMT to 59.4 MMT, now stable compared with last year's crop. Forecast of corn imports were increased by 0.1 MMT to 21.1 MMT, versus a record 17.9 MMT last year

- Strategie Grains lowered its forecast of EU's 2018/19 barley production from 56.6 to 56.5 MMT, 3% below 2017/18 (58.4 MMT)

- UK’s Ag Min estimates 2018 barley harvest for the UK at 6.606 MMT, down 7.9% on year (7.169 MMT in 2017)

- FranceAgriMer estimated France’s corn condition as of October 7 as 57% in good to excellent, down 1% point from prior week, also below the year-ago score of 81%. French farmers harvested 65% of corn as of Oct 7 vs. 42% a week ago and 24% a year ago

- FranceAgriMer estimated winter barley planting 20% done as of October 7, behind of last year’s pace of 26%

- FranceAgriMer estimated France's 2018/19 corn crop at 11.498 MMT vs. 13.568 MMT last year. FranceAgriMer lowered its forecast for French corn stocks at the end of the 2018/19 to 1.962 MMT from 2.525 MMT in Sept and vs. 2.549 MMT in 2017/18. France's 2018/19 corn exports are forecasted at 4.533 MMT (unchanged from previous forecast) vs. 5.316 MMT a year ago

- FranceAgriMer upped its forecast of France's 2018/19 barley ending stocks to 1.079 MMT from 955,000 MT in Sept and against 1.514 MMT in 2017/18. France's 2018/19 barley exports (without malt) is expected at 6.669 MMT (6.679 MMT – previous forecast) up 11.3% from 5.992 MMT a year ago

- SovEcon lowered its 2018 Russian corn crop outlook to 9.8 MMT from 10.6 MMT previously

- SovEcon cut its 2018 Russian barley crop estimate to 16.7 MMT from 16.8 MMT previously

- China reported three new African swine fever cases in Liaoning province

SOYBEAN

- Oct 10 - China sold 101,057 MT of soybeans from state reserves, or 100% of the offered amount, at average price of 3,196 RMB/mt (462 $/mt)

- Weekly US soybeans export sales data for week ended Oct 4 totalled 444,300 MT, incl. 439,700 MT for 2018/19 (below trade expectations for 800-1300 TMT). Export commitments for 2018/19 are running 18% behind of year-ago

- Weekly US soymeal export sales data for week ended Oct 4 of 348,200 MT for 2018/19, within trade expectations of 150-450 TMT. Export commitments for 2018/19 are running 19% ahead of year-ago

- USDA rated 68% of the country’s soybeans in good or excellent condition as of Oct 7, unchanged from prior week, ahead market expectations of 67%, and better than last year’s 61%. USDA estimated 32% of the US soybean crop was harvested, behind analysts' forecasts (35%), also below last year’s pace (34%) and the 5-year mean (36%)

- USDA raised forecast of US 2018/19 soy ending stocks to an unprecedented 885 million bushels, but below an average of analyst estimates (898 million bushels). Also USDA surprisingly trimmed its forecast for domestic soybean production

- USDA lifted forecast of global soybean production in 2018/19 by 0.2 MMT to a record 369.5 MMT, up 9.5% (or 32 MMT) from last year, with gains for Canada exceeding losses in India, the US and Mexico

- USDA raised forecast of 2018/19 global soybean ending stocks by 1.78 MMT to a record 110.04 MMT, above average expectation of 109.53 MMT (96.65 MMT in 2017/18)

- China imported 8.01 MMT of soybeans in September, down 1.2% from the year before. China's soybean imports in the first nine months of the year fell 2% to 70.01 MMT

- China's imports of all vegetable oils in September was 582,000 MT down 3% on year. China's Jan-Sept vegetable oil imports rose 7.1% on year to 4.456 MMT

- Conab forecasts Brazil's 2018/19 soy output at 117-119.4 MMT compared to a record previous crop of 119.282 MMT. Conab expects Brazil to export 75 MMT of soybeans (76 MMT in 2017/18). Ending stocks are forecasted to rise to 808,900 MT from 670,300 MT in 2017/18

- Rosario grain exchange maintenances its forecast of Argentine 2018/19 soybean crop at 50 MMT

- UK’s Ag Min estimates 2018 rapeseed harvest for the UK at 2.051 MMT, down 5.3% on year (2.167 MMT in 2017)

- Malaysian PM says China agreed to buy 500,000 MT of palm oil at competitive price

- Surveyor Intertek Testing Services estimated Malaysia's October 1-15 palm oil exports at 505,352 MT down 32.8% from a month ago

- Surveyor AmSpec Agri Malaysia estimated Malaysia's October 1-15 palm oil exports at 538,607 MT down 27.5% from a month ago

- Surveyor SGS estimated Malaysia's October 1-10 palm oil exports at 351,699 MT down 15.3% from a month ago

- MPOB estimated Malaysian crude palm oil production in September at 1.854 MMT, below average expectation of 1.862 MMT but up 14.4% from 1.621 MMT in August. Malaysia's palm oil stocks at end-September rose 1.5% from the previous month to 2.541 MMT, the highest since January and above the average market expectation of 2.471 MMT. Malaysian September palm oil exports rose by 47.2% to 1.619 MMT, but below average expectation of 1.65 MMT