Comparative table of StatsCan data and market expectations

(mln tonnes)

Statscan

2018

Average estimate

Lowest estimate

Highest estimate

Statscan

2017

All wheat

6.18

6.2

5.7

6.8

6.856

Durum

1.473

1.6

1.4

1.8

1.828

Canola

2.391

2.5

2.2

2.8

1.342

Oats

0.784

0.873

0.699

1.00

0.703

Barley

1.256

1.2

0.900

1.8

2.122

As of July 31, Canada's total stocks of wheat and barley were down from the same date a year earlier, while stocks of canola, oats, dry peas and lentils increased.

Wheat

Total stocks of wheat were down 9.9% to 6.2 million tonnes compared with July 31, 2017. The decline was due to a 22.5% decrease in commercial stocks to 3.5 million tonnes. This was offset by a 15.0% increase in on-farm stocks (+347 000 tonnes).

Despite lower production, higher wheat quality in 2017/2018 (as stated in the latest Canada: Outlook for Principal Field Crop, published by Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada) compared with the previous year contributed to increased exports, which could have lowered commercial stocks.

Canola

At the national level, canola stocks were up 78.2% to 2.4 million tonnes as of July 31, 2018. On-farm stocks, which are concentrated in the Prairie provinces, were behind the increase (+238.9% to 1.4 million tonnes). Commercial stocks were 3.9% higher compared with July 31, 2017, at 954 000 tonnes.

Canola production in 2017/2018 reached a record high 21.3 million tonnes, while deliveries were down compared with the previous crop year, pushing up total stocks as of July 31, 2018.

Dry peas and lentils

Overall stocks of lentils totalled 876 000 tonnes as of July 31, 2018, up 561 000 tonnes (+178.1%) from the same date in 2017. The increase was due to higher farm stocks (+223.7%). Meanwhile, total stocks of dry peas rose 116.7% to 650 000 tonnes.

Increases as of July 31, 2018, could be attributable to higher import tariffs introduced by India. Exports of both dry peas and lentils as of July 31 were down substantially from the same date last year, with dry pea exports declining 21.1% to 3.1 million tonnes and lentil exports falling 36.8% to 1.6 million tonnes.

Barley

Total barley stocks were down 40.8% to 1.3 million tonnes as of July 31. Stocks held on-farm, which accounted for 81.4% of total stocks, fell 42.8% to 1.0 million tonnes. Meanwhile, commercial stocks declined 30.0% to 233 000 tonnes.

Oats

As of July 31, total stocks of oats were up 11.5% to 784 000 tonnes year over year. Increases in both on-farm (+6.3%) and commercial (+35.4%) stock levels led to the overall rise.

Total stocks of principal field crops at July 31

July 2016

July 2017

July 2018

July 2016 to July 2017

July 2017 to July 2018

thousands of tonnes

% change

Total wheat

5 178

6 856

6 180

32.4

-9.9

Durum wheat

1 100

1 828

1 473

66.2

-19.4

Wheat excluding durum

4 078

5 028

4 706

23.3

-6.4

Barley

1 443

2 122

1 256

47.1

-40.8

Canola

2 091

1 342

2 391

-35.8

78.2

Dry field peas

174

300

650

72.4

116.7

Flaxseed

279

240

128

-14.0

-46.7

Lentils

73

315

876

331.5

178.1

Oats

967

703

784

-27.3

11.5

Rye

51

164

104

221.6

-36.6