Comparative table of StatCan data and market expectations

(mln tonnes)

Statscan

2018

Average estimate

Lowest estimate

Highest estimate

Statscan

2017

All wheat

28.987

30.6

29.3

32.7

29.984

Durum

5.034

5.9

5.5

6.7

4.962

Canola

19.162

20.2

19.3

21

21.328

Oats

3.305

3.3

3.1

3.5

3.733

Barley

7.992

8.4

7.7

8.8

7.891

Peas

3.635

3.5

3.2

3.9

4.112

Soybeans

7.01

7.0

6.7

7.3

7.717

Lentils

2.167

2.3

2.1

2.4

2.559

Flax

0.494

0.514

0.495

0.56

0.555

Data from the July farm survey on field crop production show that farmers in Canada anticipate increased barley production compared with 2017, while production of canola, wheat, soybeans, corn for grain, and oats are all expected to decline.

Weather conditions, including lower than average precipitation in several parts of Canada, are expected to drive down production (see map) and lower anticipated yields for some crops. In addition, high temperatures in some areas may have contributed to an expected decrease in production and average yields for some crops.

Wheat

Total harvested area of wheat in Canada is expected to increase 9.4% from 2017 to 24.3 million acres in 2018. Total yields at the national level are expected to fall 11.5%, from an average of 49.6 bushels per acre in 2017 to 43.9 bushels per acre in 2018. As a result, total wheat production is anticipated to decline from 30.0 million tonnes in 2017 to 29.0 million tonnes.

Provincially, preliminary total wheat production in Saskatchewan is expected to edge down from 12.9 million tonnes in 2017 to 12.8 million tonnes in 2018. The decline comes despite an anticipated 13.5% increase in harvested area in 2018, but yields are expected to fall from 42.2 bushels per acre in 2017 to 36.8 bushels per acre.

In Alberta, an anticipated 8.7% decline in yield is expected to offset a 5.5% increase in harvested area, resulting in an anticipated production of 9.6 million tonnes in 2018, 3.9% lower than the previous year.

Farmers in Manitoba expected an 8.0% decrease in total production to 4.0 million tonnes. Like both other Prairie provinces, lower yields (down 14.2% from the previous year) are expected to offset increases in harvested areas, which rose from 2.7 million acres in 2017 to 2.9 million acres in 2018.

In Ontario, total wheat production (the majority of which is winter wheat) is expected to decline, the result of a 1.2% decrease in harvested area in 2017, as well as a 4.3 bushels per acre drop in average yield.

Canola

At the national level, farmers anticipate total canola production to fall from 21.3 million tonnes in 2017 to 19.2 million tonnes in 2018. The expected decrease is due to an anticipated 1.7% decline in harvested area from 2017 to 22.5 million acres. As well, there is an anticipated 8.5% decline in average yields from 2017 to 37.5 bushels per acre in 2018.

Farmers in Saskatchewan expect to produce 10.1 million tonnes of canola in 2018, down 9.7% from the previous year. Lower production is attributable to a 3.8% drop in expected harvested area from 2017, and a projected decrease in average yield, falling from 38.9 bushels per acre in 2017 to 36.5 bushels per acre in 2018.

Production in Alberta is expected to decline from 6.8 million tonnes in 2017 to 6.0 million tonnes in 2018. The drop in production is mainly attributable to an expected 10.1% decrease in yield to 39.3 bushels per acre. A 2.6% decrease in harvested area compared with 2017 also contributed to the total decrease in production.

In Manitoba, harvested area of canola is expected to increase 7.4% to 3.4 million acres in 2018. Despite the projected increases in harvested acres, yield is expected to decline from 44.0 bushels per acre in 2017 to 37.7 bushels per acre in 2018. As a result, production is anticipated to decline 7.9% from 2017 to 2.9 million tonnes.

Corn for grain

Canadian farmers anticipate a 2.2% decrease in corn for grain production to 13.8 million tonnes in 2018. The decline is expected despite a 2.4% increase in harvested area. The decrease is tied to a 4.4% drop in yields, from 159.7 bushels per acre in 2017 to 152.6 bushels per acre in 2018.

In Ontario, which accounts for the majority of corn for grain production in Canada, harvested area is expected to rise 2.4% to 2.1 million acres in 2018. The increase in harvested area is expected to be offset by lower yields, falling from 167.0 bushels per acre in 2017 to 160.0 bushels per acre in 2018. As a result, farmers anticipate a 1.9% decrease in production to 8.6 million tonnes.

Trends were similar in Quebec, where yields are expected to decrease 5.7% to 150.2 bushels per acre in 2018, offsetting a 1.3% increase in harvested area to 946,400 acres in 2018. Production is anticipated to decline 4.5% from 2017 to 3.6 million tonnes.

Soybeans

Canadian farmers expect a total production of 7.0 million tonnes of soybeans in 2018, down 9.2% from the previous year. The anticipated decrease in production is due to a 13.7% decline in harvested area from 2017 to 6.3 million acres. Yields are anticipated to rise by 2.1 bushels per acre at the national level to 41.2 bushels per acre (+5.4% from 2017).

Production in Ontario is expected to decrease from 3.8 million tonnes in 2017 to 3.7 million tonnes in 2018. Harvested area is anticipated to fall by 64,000 acres (-2.1%), while yields are expected to decrease 1.5% from 2017 to 44.9 bushels per acre.

Harvested area of soybeans in Manitoba is projected to decrease 18.0% to 1.9 million acres, the first decline in harvested soybean area in the province since 2007. Yield is expected to fall from 36.1 bushels per acre in 2017 to 34.7 bushels per acre in 2018. The anticipated decrease in both harvested area and yield is expected to result in a 21.1% decline in production, from 2.2 million tonnes in 2017 to 1.8 million tonnes in 2018.

In Quebec, farmers anticipate production to rise from 1.1 million tonnes in 2017 to 1.2 million tonnes in 2018, the result of increased yields. Yields are expected to rise from 41.9 bushels per acre in 2017 to 48.8 bushels per acre in 2018. Higher yields are expected to offset a 7.9% decrease in harvested area.

In Saskatchewan, harvested soybean area is expected to decrease 52.7% to 400,000 acres in 2018, resulting in an anticipated production of 298 000 tonnes, down 37.7% from 2017.

Barley and oats

Nationally, farmers anticipate that barley production will increase from 7.9 million tonnes in 2017 to 8.0 million tonnes in 2018. The increase in production is attributable to an 11.5% gain in harvested area to 5.8 million acres in 2018, offsetting an expected 9.1% decrease in yields.

Harvested area of oats is expected to decrease 6.2% to 2.4 million acres. In addition, farmers across Canada anticipate that yield will fall from 93.1 bushels per acre in 2017 to 87.9 bushels per acre in 2018. As a result, production at the national level is expected to fall 11.5% to 3.3 million tonnes.

July estimates of production of principal field crops

2016

2017

2018

2016 to 2017

2017 to 2018

thousands of tonnes

% change

Total wheat

32 140

29 984

28 987

-6.7

-3.3

Durum wheat

7 762

4 962

5 034

-36.1

1.4

Spring wheat

20 705

22 167

21 559

7.1

-2.7

Winter wheat

3 673

2 855

2 394

-22.3

-16.1

Barley

8 839

7 891

7 992

-10.7

1.3

Canary seed

140

145r

111

3.3

-23.6

Canola

19 599

21 328r

19 162

8.8

-10.2

Chick peas

75

96r

264

27.1

176.3

Corn for grain

13 889

14 095

13 789

1.5

-2.2

Dry beans

244

322

308

32.0

-4.5

Dry field peas

4 836

4 112

3 635

-15.0

-11.6

Fall Rye

436

342r

200

-21.7

-41.5

Flaxseed

591

555r

494

-6.1

-11.1

Lentils

3 194

2 559r

2 167

-19.9

-15.3

Mustard seed

236

122

175

-48.4

44.2

Oats

3 231

3 733r

3 305

15.5

-11.5

Soybeans

6 597

7 717

7 010

17.0

-9.2

Sunflower seed

51

58

58

13.8

1.4