OVERVIEW

World corn production is raised as larger crops in Ukraine, Argentina, and India more than offset lower production in Russia. Trade is boosted on stronger demand from EU, Canada, and China. The U.S. season-average farm price for corn is unchanged.

PRICES

Since the release of the January WASDE report, U.S. corn quotes declined only slightly to about $180/ton by early February. As new-crop prospects improve, Argentine quotes have slid and are at or below U.S. Similarly, Black Sea fell to about $10 below U.S. prices as burdensome supplies, intense competition, and a weak currency all act to pressure prices. Brazilian quotes were not available.

TRADE CHANGES IN 2014/15

Selected Exporters

  • Argentine corn is up sharply by 1.5 million tons to 13.5 million on greater exportable supplies and competitive prices. (Sorghum is raised 200,000 tons to 1.5 million.)
  • Russian corn is lowered 500,000 tons to 2.5 million on a smaller crop and intense competition from neighboring Ukraine.
  • South African corn is down 500,000 tons to 2.0 million despite prospects for burdensome supplies, because of slow trade arising from strong competition.
  • Ukrainian corn is up sharply by 1.5 million tons to 18.0 million because of greater exportable supplies and competitive prices with a weak domestic currency.
  • U.S. sorghum is raised 700,000 tons to 7.5 million, the highest level in nearly 25 years, on continued purchases by China.

Selected Importers

  • Canadian corn is boosted 500,000 tons to 1.5 million on continued strong shipments from the United States.
  • Chinese corn is up 500,000 tons to 2.5 million on improved prospects for trade, especially from non-U.S. origins.
  • EU corn is boosted 1.0 million tons again this month to 8.0 million on a surge of import licenses in January and on higher wheat exports.
  • Chinese sorghum is raised 800,000 tons to 7.0 million on continued purchases and shipments, primarily from the United States