Record Global Oilseed Stocks Likely to Pressure Prices

Oilseed supplies are currently transitioning from a prolonged period of tightness to one of relative abundance. Global oilseed ending stocks are forecast to rise significantly this year led by a nearly 40 percent rise in soybean stocks. Record soybean production in nearly all of the major exporting countries, either already harvested, or forecast for harvest in early 2015, is contributing to the increase.

The abundant oilseed supply situation will likely cause negative pressure on soybean prices, a situation that could be exacerbated if producers harvest large crops next year.

OVERVIEW

Global soybean production is higher this month as larger crops in Argentina and China more than offset a decline in Brazil. Soybean trade is raised with increased U.S. exports. Larger crush, mainly in Argentina, led to growing global meal and oil production. Soybean meal exports are raised on growing Argentine sales to Southeast Asia, more than offsetting declining Indian meal exports. The U.S. season-average price for soybean meal was raised, while lowered for soybean oil. The soybean price is unchanged.

SOYBEAN PRICES

U.S. export bids, FOB Gulf, in December averaged $401 per ton, down $18 from last month.

As of the week ending January 29, 2014/15 U.S. soybean commitments (outstanding sales plus accumulated exports) to China totaled 28.5 million tons compared to 27.7 million a year ago. Total commitments to the world are 45.4 million tons, compared to 43.0 million for the same period last year.

2014/15 TRADE OUTLOOK

  • United States
  • o Soybean exports are up 544,000 tons to 48.7 million on strong sales and commitments to date.
  • o Soybean imports are raised 272,000 tons to 680,000 on the pace of trade.
  • o Rapeseed oil imports are increased 106,000 tons to 1.7 million, reflecting larger shipments from Canada.
  • Algeriasoybean meal imports are boosted 100,000 tons to 1.5 million on stronger demand.
  • Argentina
  • o Soybean meal exports are boosted 1.0 million tons to 28.8 million as crush volume rises.
  • o Soybean oil exports are up by 125,000 tons to 4.5 million on increased supplies.
  • Boliviasoybean meal exports are raised by 150,000 tons to 1.5 million in response to increased crush.
  • Canadarapeseed exports are up 100,000 tons to 8.6 million with increased exports to the United Arab Emirates.
  • Chinarapeseed oil imports are down 100,000 tons to 1.3 million on trade to date.
  • India
  • o Rapeseed meal exports are decreased by 100,000 tons to 1.0 million, and rapeseed oil imports are increased by 100,000 tons to 250,000 as reduced rapeseed production results in lower crush and product supplies.
  • o Soybean meal exports are cut 300,000 tons to 2.6 million, reflecting exceptionally weak shipments in the first part of the marketing year.
  • Indonesiasoybean meal imports are raised by 350,000 tons to 4.3 million on strong protein meal demand.
  • Mexicosoybean meal imports are up by 100,000 tons to 1.5 million on growing demand for feed ingredients.
  • Philippinessoybean meal imports are increased 350,000 tons to 2.7 million reflecting stronger demand for protein meal.
  • Russia
  • o Soybean imports are up 400,000 tons to 1.1 million reflecting much higher crush and increased demand for protein meal by the domestic poultry sector.
  • o Soybean meal exports are raised 200,000 tons to 550,000 on larger supplies and growing EU trade.
  • Ukrainesoybean exports are boosted 100,000 tons to 2.0 million reflecting increased supplies.
  • United Arab Emirates rapeseed imports are raised 100,000 tons to 800,000 on growing crush and product exports.
  • Vietnamsoybean meal imports are increased 300,000 tons to 3.5 million on growing demand