Coarse Grains. World Markets and Trade. June 2018 – USDA June 13, 2018
OVERVIEW FOR 2018/19
Global corn production is lower this month primarily driven by a smaller crop for Russia. Global trade is forecast lower with smaller imports for Iran and Vietnam, where Russia is a major supplier. The U.S. season-average farm price is raised $0.10 per bushel to $3.90.
OVERVIEW FOR 2017/18
Global corn production is down this month primarily driven by a smaller second crop (safrinha) in Brazil. Global trade is marginally changed as larger exports for the United States offset reductions for Brazil and Ukraine. The U.S. season-average farm price is unchanged at $3.40 per bushel.
Global: Corn prices dropped sharply from the previous WASDE. Argentine bids declined $17/ton to $174, and Brazilian bids were down $7/ton to $186 largely driven by depreciation of their currencies. Losses in Brazil were limited with deteriorating prospects for its second crop corn. Black Sea bids were down $17/ton to $188 on weak foreign demand. U.S. bids were down $19/ton to $176 reflecting improved weather conditions across the Midwest and barge logistics in the upper Mississippi river.
U.S. Corn’s Advantage in Peru Recedes in the Short Term
Peru corn imports from the world have more than doubled over the past decade, supported by growing demand primarily for poultry feed. For the past several years, U.S. corn has maintained the lion’s share supported by the U.S. and Peru Trade Promotion Agreement (TPA), which established a tariff-rate quota and exempted U.S. corn from Peru’s price band system. U.S. corn within the quota is duty-free, and over-quota imports are subject to a lower levy, which is reduced over the 12-year implementation period.
Corn imports into Peru from all other origins are also duty-free. However, non-U.S. corn is subject to Peru’s price band system, which uses the average of the past 60-month prices in selected international markets. In addition, a reference price is determined based on observed prices in international markets during the preceding month. When imports enter below the reference price, a variable levy is assessed to ensure that imports meet the floor price. In 2018, prices in the global market have moved up on concerns over tighter exportable supplies in Argentina and Brazil. Likewise, Peru’s reference price has steadily inched up to the floor price. Starting in March, there is no variable levy on non-U.S. corn.
Typically, the variable levy on non-U.S. corn has been greater than the tariff reduction applied to U.S. corn. Over-quota U.S. corn is assessed a 4.17 percent duty in 2018, and would face competition in the short term, primarily from Argentina. Without this price advantage, quality preferences and logistics -- including transportation -- could play a bigger role in purchasing decisions. When the TPA is fully implemented at the start of 2020, all U.S. imports will be dutyfree, potentially enhancing the competitiveness of U.S. corn.