Coarse Grains. World Markets and Trade. May 2018 – USDA May 11, 2018
OVERVIEW FOR 2018/19
Global coarse grain production is projected to rise, driven by corn, barley, and sorghum. However, ending stocks are projected to fall.
Global corn production is projected up with larger crops for Argentina, Brazil, China, Russia, and Ukraine more than offsetting a reduction for the United States. U.S. production is projected to fall based on smaller planted area in the March Prospective Plantings report and a decline in yield, while other countries expand area responding to relatively strong prices and rising demand for feed and industrial uses. Consumption is expected to outpace production for the second year in a row, driven by the livestock and poultry sectors particularly for Southeast Asia and South America. Greater consumption draws down global ending stocks to their lowest level since 2012/13.
World barley production is projected up with gains for the European Union, Australia, and Turkey more than offsetting reductions for Ukraine and Russia. Global consumption is forecast down largely due to Ukraine and Russia reacting to more favorable export prospects. Global trade is projected slightly higher, driven by steady growth for countries in the Middle East and rising demand from China. China is expected to remain the world’s top importer, as the country turns to barley to partially offset a decline in sorghum imports from the United States. Global ending stocks are set to fall to the lowest since 1983/84.
Global sorghum production is forecast higher with gains for Australia, Burkina Faso, Sudan, China, and Nigeria more than offsetting reductions for the United States, Mali, and Niger. Global consumption is expected at the same level as last year led by the United States. Global trade is projected smaller with lower imports for China based on China’s preliminary anti-dumping duty on U.S. sorghum. Global ending stocks fall to the lowest level since 2006/07.
• China corn is projected up 1.0 million tons to 5.0 million, reflecting continued strong demand for competitively priced feed grains particularly in southern provinces. The release of corn stocks to tame rising domestic corn prices is not expected to limit imports as auctioning stocks has mainly been in the northern provinces. Barley imports are expected to rise 1.3 million tons to 9.5 million, partially offsetting demand for sorghum. Sorghum imports are projected to fall sharply by 3.4 million tons to 1.1 million without supplies from the United States.
• Iran corn is projected up 500,000 tons to 9.0 million with strong feed demand.
• Mexico corn is projected up 500,000 tons to a record 16.7 million on growing feed demand for the livestock sector. The country mainly produces white corn that is used for food, while importing yellow corn for feed use primarily from the United States. Sorghum is expected to double to 2.0 million tons to satisfy growing feed demand.
• Vietnam corn is projected up 1.5 million tons to a record 11.0 million on a lower domestic crop and prospects for continued growth in feed use for the swine and poultry industries.
• Saudi Arabia corn is forecast up 500,000 tons to 5.0 million with government efforts to modernize the feed industry by boosting compound feed production drive this growth. Barley imports are expected to remain flat.
• Turkey barley is projected to fall 500,000 tons to 100,000 on a large crop and a reimposition of barley tariffs. Feed demand is still projected to grow.
• Japan sorghum is forecast up 800,000 tons to 1.4 million on expected shifts in feed rations and as a result of U.S. sorghum pricing itself back into traditional markets.
• U.S. corn is projected 4.0 million tons lower to 53.0 million on strong competition primarily from Ukraine and Russia as well as South America. Sorghum is forecast down 1.0 million tons to 4.2 million because of China’s high preliminary anti-dumping duty on U.S. sorghum. China had been the top destination.
• Argentina corn is projected to surge 2.0 million tons to a record 27.0 million on a crop expected to match the record harvest of 2 years prior. Rising global demand for feed in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), as well as in Vietnam and Bangladesh is expected to underpin record shipments.
• Brazil corn is forecast up 2.0 million tons to 31.0 million on expected record second crop production and strong demand in developing countries. Imports are expected at 0.8 million tons, the same level as the previous year, reflecting relatively tight supplies in southern states where animal production is concentrated.
• EU corn is projected down 500,000 tons to 1.5 million while imports are lowered by the same amount to 16.0 million on large carryin supplies and greater barley production. Barley exports are forecast up 800,000 tons to 7.0 million reflecting a larger crop and expectations for robust global demand.
• Ukraine corn is forecast up 4.0 million tons to a record 24.0 million on expected demand growth in China and MENA in addition to tighter exportable supplies in CY 2018 from major exporters in South America. Barley exports are projected down 900,000 tons to 4.0 million on smaller crop prospects.
• Russia corn is forecast up 2.7 million tons to 7.5 million with expected robust demand from MENA and East Asia. Barley is forecast up 100,000 tons to 5.5 million even with a smaller expected crop, due to lower exportable supplies from other major exporters.
• Australia barley is forecast up 1.2 million tons to 7.0 million on a large crop and robust demand from Asia, particularly China, and the Middle East. Sorghum is forecast up 900,000 tons to 1.1 million on a larger crop and China demand.
• Canada barley is forecast down 500,000 tons to 1.5 million. Despite a larger expected crop, malting barley volumes are projected to be smaller and ample global supplies increase competition for feed barley exports.
Note: For 2018/19, several countries have been added to the PSD system for barley and oats.
For barley, Vietnam and Thailand were included to reflect notable growth in feed and malting barley consumption. Respectively, Vietnam recently opened the largest malting facility in Southeast Asia with expectations for growth in domestic beer production.
For oats, South Korea and India were added owing to the countries’ growing roles in oats global trade. Oats consumed as food for human consumption has been the primary driver behind recent demand growth for both countries.
OVERVIEW FOR 2017/18
For 2017/18, global corn production is up fractionally from last month as gains for many SubSaharan Africa countries virtually offset large reductions for Brazil and Iran. Global consumption and trade are changed slightly as stepped-up exports for Argentina and the United States offset a reduction for Brazil. The U.S. season-average farm price is up $0.05 to $3.40 per bushel.
Corn prices are mostly unchanged from the previous WASDE. Argentine bids rose $1/ton to $191, while Brazil prices were recorded for the first time since January ending at $193. Black Sea bids and U.S. prices were mostly unchanged at $205 and $195 respectively, reflecting incoming Argentina supplies capping a rise in global prices amidst robust foreign demand.