Comparative table of StatCan data and market expectations

(mln tonnes)

Statscan

July 31/2017

Average estimate

Lowest estimate

Highest estimate

Statscan

July 31/2016

All wheat

6.865

6.0

4.7

7.2

5.178

Durum

1.863

1.9

1

2.7

1.100

Canola

1.348

1.5

1.0

2.0

2.091

Oats

0.690

0.7

0.5

0.9

0.930

Barley

2.122

1.9

1.3

2.3

1.443

Flax

0.191

0.2

0.1

0.2

0.277

Peas

0.301

0.3

0.2

0.4

0.174

Lentils

0.405

0.2

0.2

0.3

0.073

As of July 31, Canada's total stock levels for canola and oats were down from the same date in 2016. Meanwhile, wheat, barley and lentil stocks increased compared with July 31, 2016.

Wheat

On-farm stocks of wheat increased 8.5% to 2.4 million tonnes as of July 31, 2017, compared with levels seen at the same date in 2016 (in 2016, wheat production increased 15.0% over 2015). This increase in on-farm stocks was driven by durum wheat on-farm stocks, which more than doubled compared to last year, to 980 000 tonnes (+104.2%). At the same time, commercial stocks rose 50.5% to 4.5 million tonnes. As a result, total stocks of wheat were up 32.6% to 6.9 million tonnes.

Canola

At the national level, canola stocks declined 35.5% to 1.3 million tonnes as of July 31, 2017, the result of decreases in both on-farm stocks and commercial stocks. On-farm stocks fell 56.6% to 430 000 tonnes, while commercial stocks were down 16.6% to 918 000 tonnes.

Disposition of canola at end of crop-year 2016-17 saw crushings and exports reach record highs. As of July 31, 2017, canola crushings stood at 9.2 million tonnes, while total exports were 11.0 million tonnes.

Barley

As of July 31, 2017, total barley stocks rose 47.1% to 2.1 million tonnes. Stocks held on farms, which accounted for nearly 85% of total stocks, were up 38.9% to 1.8 million tonnes. Meanwhile, commercial stocks increased 114.8% to 333 000 tonnes.

Oats

Total stocks of oats were down 25.8% compared with July 31, 2016, to 690 000 tonnes. Declines in both on-farm (-12.8%) and commercial (-55.3%) stock levels led to this overall drop.

Lentils

Overall stocks of lentils were at 405 000 tonnes as of July 31, 2017, more than five times the size they were on the same date in 2016. The rise was mainly the result of record production in 2016. On-farm stocks substantially increased and stood at 314 000 tonnes, while commercial stocks totalled 91 000 tonnes.

Total stocks of principal field crops at July 31

July 2015

July 2016

July 2017

July 2015 to July 2016

July 2016 to July 2017

thousands of tonnes

% change

Total wheat

7 101

5 178

6 865

-27.1

32.6

Durum wheat

976

1 100

1 863

12.7

69.4

Wheat excluding durum

6 125

4 078

5 003

-33.4

22.7

Barley

1 217

1 443

2 122

18.6

47.1

Canola

2 573

2 091

1 348

-18.7

-35.5

Dry field peas

684

174

301

-74.6

73.0

Flaxseed

98

277

191

182.7

-31.0

Lentils

365

73

405

-80.0

454.8

Oats

674

930

690

38.0

-25.8

Rye

42

51

165

21.4

223.5