Canada. Stocks of principal field crops, Jul 31 - StatCan Sept. 6, 2017
Comparative table of StatCan data and market expectations
(mln tonnes) | Statscan July 31/2017 | Average estimate | Lowest estimate | Highest estimate | Statscan July 31/2016 |
All wheat | 6.865 | 6.0 | 4.7 | 7.2 | 5.178 |
Durum | 1.863 | 1.9 | 1 | 2.7 | 1.100 |
Canola | 1.348 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 2.091 |
Oats | 0.690 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.930 |
Barley | 2.122 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 2.3 | 1.443 |
Flax | 0.191 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.277 |
Peas | 0.301 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.174 |
Lentils | 0.405 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.073 |
As of July 31, Canada's total stock levels for canola and oats were down from the same date in 2016. Meanwhile, wheat, barley and lentil stocks increased compared with July 31, 2016.
Wheat
On-farm stocks of wheat increased 8.5% to 2.4 million tonnes as of July 31, 2017, compared with levels seen at the same date in 2016 (in 2016, wheat production increased 15.0% over 2015). This increase in on-farm stocks was driven by durum wheat on-farm stocks, which more than doubled compared to last year, to 980 000 tonnes (+104.2%). At the same time, commercial stocks rose 50.5% to 4.5 million tonnes. As a result, total stocks of wheat were up 32.6% to 6.9 million tonnes.
Canola
At the national level, canola stocks declined 35.5% to 1.3 million tonnes as of July 31, 2017, the result of decreases in both on-farm stocks and commercial stocks. On-farm stocks fell 56.6% to 430 000 tonnes, while commercial stocks were down 16.6% to 918 000 tonnes.
Disposition of canola at end of crop-year 2016-17 saw crushings and exports reach record highs. As of July 31, 2017, canola crushings stood at 9.2 million tonnes, while total exports were 11.0 million tonnes.
Barley
As of July 31, 2017, total barley stocks rose 47.1% to 2.1 million tonnes. Stocks held on farms, which accounted for nearly 85% of total stocks, were up 38.9% to 1.8 million tonnes. Meanwhile, commercial stocks increased 114.8% to 333 000 tonnes.
Oats
Total stocks of oats were down 25.8% compared with July 31, 2016, to 690 000 tonnes. Declines in both on-farm (-12.8%) and commercial (-55.3%) stock levels led to this overall drop.
Lentils
Overall stocks of lentils were at 405 000 tonnes as of July 31, 2017, more than five times the size they were on the same date in 2016. The rise was mainly the result of record production in 2016. On-farm stocks substantially increased and stood at 314 000 tonnes, while commercial stocks totalled 91 000 tonnes.
Total stocks of principal field crops at July 31
July 2015 | July 2016 | July 2017 | July 2015 to July 2016 | July 2016 to July 2017 | |
thousands of tonnes | % change | ||||
Total wheat | 7 101 | 5 178 | 6 865 | -27.1 | 32.6 |
Durum wheat | 976 | 1 100 | 1 863 | 12.7 | 69.4 |
Wheat excluding durum | 6 125 | 4 078 | 5 003 | -33.4 | 22.7 |
Barley | 1 217 | 1 443 | 2 122 | 18.6 | 47.1 |
Canola | 2 573 | 2 091 | 1 348 | -18.7 | -35.5 |
Dry field peas | 684 | 174 | 301 | -74.6 | 73.0 |
Flaxseed | 98 | 277 | 191 | 182.7 | -31.0 |
Lentils | 365 | 73 | 405 | -80.0 | 454.8 |
Oats | 674 | 930 | 690 | 38.0 | -25.8 |
Rye | 42 | 51 | 165 | 21.4 | 223.5 |