Comparative table of StatCan data and market expectations

(mln tonnes)

Statscan

2017

Average analyst estimate

2017

Statscan

2016

All wheat

25.5

26.2

31.7

Durum

3.9

4.9

7.8

Canola

18.2

18.6

19.6

Corn

13.6

13.5

13.2

Oats

3.8

3.3

4.8

Barley

7.2

7.0

8.2

Soybeans

7.7

7.9

6.5

Flaxseed

0.51

0.56

0.59

According to the July farm survey on field crop production, Canadian farmers reported that they expect production of soybeans, oats and corn for grain to increase in 2017, while wheat, barley and canola crops are anticipated to decline.

Very dry conditions in southern parts of the Prairies have played a role in the production expectations reported for selected crops in the July farm survey.

Wheat

Canadian farmers expect wheat production to decrease in most provinces in 2017. Nationally, total wheat production is anticipated at 25.5 million tonnes, down 19.5% compared with 2016. Although harvested area should remain stable at 22.0 million acres, the drop can be traced to a projected lower average yield of 42.5 bushels per acre, down 20.1% from the 53.2 bushels per acre reported in 2016.

Farmers in Saskatchewan anticipate wheat production to decrease 29.9% from 2016 to 10.2 million tonnes. This is mainly attributable to a 28.8% decline in anticipated average yield to 33.7 bushels per acre, as harvested area should only be down 1.7% from 2016. Similarly, producers in Alberta expect an 18.3% fall in average yield to 47.4 bushels per acre, resulting in an anticipated 9.1% decrease in total wheat production to 9.0 million tonnes.

Manitoba farmers expect a decline in wheat production to 3.6 million tonnes (-14.3%), driven by a lower anticipated harvested area of 2.7 million acres (-8.5%), and a 6.4% decrease in average yield to 49.7 bushels per acre. In Ontario, total wheat production (derived from winter wheat, mainly) is anticipated to decrease 10.6% from 2016 to 2.3 million tonnes.

Canola

Canadian farmers anticipate producing 18.2 million tonnes of canola in 2017, down 7.1% from 2016. While harvested area is expected to rise to 22.8 million acres, lower average yields in Alberta and Saskatchewan are likely to contribute to the national decline in production.

Saskatchewan farmers are expecting canola production to fall 13.7% from 2016 to 9.2 million tonnes in 2017, despite a substantial increase in area seeded in 2017. The decrease in production is entirely due to the average yield declining 23.8% from 2016 to 32.3 bushels per acre.

In Alberta, canola harvested area is reported at a record 6.9 million acres, up 17.9% from 2016. However, farmers anticipate the average yield to fall 16.6% to 38.7 bushels per acre. Ultimately, canola production is anticipated to decrease 1.6% from a year earlier to 6.1 million tonnes in 2017.

Meanwhile, Manitoba farmers are expecting canola production to increase 6.5% from 2016 to 2.8 million tonnes in 2017.

Corn for grain

At the national level, Canadian farmers expect corn for grain production to increase 3.4% to 13.6 million tonnes in 2017, despite a 3.3% decrease in average yield to 153.4 bushels per acres. The anticipated production increase is attributable to a 7.0% rise in harvested area to 3.5 million acres.

Ontario farmers anticipate corn for grain production to reach 8.6 million tonnes, up 6.3% from 2016. This is the result of anticipated increases in harvested area (+4.2% to 2.1 million acres) and average yield (+2.0% to 161.6 bushels per acre).

Quebec farmers expect corn for grain production to decline 6.6% from the previous year to 3.5 million tonnes. Despite an anticipated 5.0% increase in harvested area, an 11.1% decline in yield would lead to this production decline.

Conversely, Manitoba farmers expect record corn for grain production, up 9.8% from 2016 to 1.3 million tonnes in 2017. This is mainly the result of a harvested area anticipated to increase to a record 405,000 acres (+22.7%), as average yield is expected to fall 10.5% to 124.7 bushels per acre.

Soybeans

Nationally, Canadian farmers expect soybean production to reach another record high in 2017, up 19.8% from 2016 to 7.7 million tonnes as a result of a projected 34.6% increase in harvested area. The record high is anticipated despite an average yield that is expected to decrease 10.9% from 2016 to 39.3 bushels per acres.

In Ontario, soybean harvested area is expected to rise 13.3% to 3.1 million acres, while the average yield is expected to decline 2.8% to 44.6 bushels per acre in 2017. As a result, Ontario farmers anticipate a 10.2% increase in production to 3.7 million tonnes.

In Manitoba, farmers expect record soybean production for a sixth consecutive year, up 27.0% from 2016 to 2.2 million tonnes in 2017. This would be entirely due to a harvested area expected to rise to a record 2.3 million acres (+44.8%), since average yield is reported at 36.2 bushels per acre, 12.3% lower than in 2016.

In Saskatchewan, where soybean harvested area more than tripled in 2017 (to 845,000 acres), farmers expect production to reach 547 000 tonnes. Quebec producers anticipate a 10.6% production increase to 1.2 million tonnes in 2017.

Barley and oats

Canadian farmers expect barley production to fall 17.9% to 7.2 million tonnes in 2017. This decline is expected to be the result of a 4.6% decrease in harvested area to 5.2 million acres, combined with a 13.9% drop in average yield to 63.2 bushels per acre.

Canadian farmers expect oat production to rise 15.3% from 2016 to 3.7 million tonnes. This is a result of a harvested area expected to rise to 2.7 million acres, as national average yield is anticipated to decline 2.6% to 90.0 bushels per acre.

July estimates of production of principal field crops

2015

2016

2017

2015 to 2016

2016 to 2017

thousands of tonnes

% change

Total wheat

27 594

31 729

25 541

15.0

-19.5

Durum wheat

5 389

7 762

3 898

44.0

-49.8

Spring wheat

19 962

20 454

18 889

2.5

-7.7

Winter wheat

2 243

3 513

2 754

56.6

-21.6

Barley

8 226

8 784

7 212

6.8

-17.9

Canary seed

149

140

117

-5.6

-16.6

Canola

18 377

19 601

18 203

6.7

-7.1

Chick peas

84

75

75

-9.9

-0.3

Corn for grain

13 559

13 193

13 645

-2.7

3.4

Dry beans

243

229

317

-5.9

38.2

Dry field peas

3 201

4 836

3 793

51.1

-21.6

Fall rye

226

415

326

84.0

-21.4

Flaxseed

942

588

507

-37.6

-13.7

Lentils

2 541

3 248

2 291

27.9

-29.5

Mustard seed

123

236

130

90.9

-45.0

Oats

3 428

3 195

3 685

-6.8

15.3

Soybeans

6 371

6 463

7 743

1.4

19.8

Sunflower seed

73

51

52

-30.3

3.4