Executive Summary

Production

In MY 2017/18, overall production of European Union-28 major oilseeds (rapeseed, sunflower, and soybeans) is expected to be about 3.2 percent higher than in the previous year. This is an effect of higher rapeseed and soybean production, whereas sunflower production is expected to be steady. Rapeseed production increased due to higher production in Poland, the United Kingdom, Romania, Germany, Estonia, Latvia, and Sweden. Gains more than offset lower production in Hungary, the Czech Republic, Bulgaria, and France. In total, higher EU production is a result of better yields and higher acreage. Soybean production gains are an effect of increased area in Italy, France, Romania, and Austria while average yields are expected to be lower than in the preveious marketing year. Italy, Croatia, Austria, and Hungary report lower soybean yields; only in France and Romaina are yields expected to increase. Increased sunflower area in most producing countries – with highest growth in Romania, Bulgaria, Hungary, and Italy – results in only marginally higher total area due to stagnating area in France and declining area in Spain. In some member states (Spain, France, parts of Italy, Hungary, Czech Republic, and Slovakia) dry and hot weather negatively affected the sunflower crop and lowered yield expectations while Romania and Bulgaria anticipate above average yields.

Total of Major Oilseeds (Soybean, Rapeseed, Sunflower)

Area Harvested

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017e

Rapeseed

6,317

6,8

6,746

6,514

6,54

6,7

Sunflower

4,236

4,62

4,29

4,173

4,154

4,18

Soybeans

431

480

571

871

800

885

Total

10,984

11,9

11,607

11,558

11,494

11,765

Major Oilseeds Production (in 1,000 MT)

Production

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017e

Rapeseed

19,631

20,978

24,586

21,997

20,515

21,4

Sunflower

7,131

9,06

9

7,72

8,58

8,58

Soybeans

957

1,23

1,84

2,33

2,43

2,57

Total

27,719

31,268

35,426

32,047

31,525

32,55

Major Oilseed Crush (in 1,000 MT)

Crush

2012/13

2013/14

2014/15

2015/16e

2016/17f

2017/18f

Rapesee

22,7

23,95

25,4

24,3

24,5

24,3

Soybean

12,325

13,4

13,5

15,192

15,428

15,51

Sunflowe

6,54

7,6

7,65

7,2

7,68

7,6

Total

41,565

44,95

46,55

46,692

47,608

47,41

Consumption

Competitive soybean and soybean meal prices are expected to lead to increased imports and increased feed use at the expense of rapeseed meal and sunflower meal.

Oilseed, Soybean

2015/2016

2016/2017

2017/2018

Market Begin Year

Oct 2015

Oct 2016

Oct 2017

European Union

USDA

Official

New

Post

USDA

Official

New

Post

USDA

Official

New

Post

Area Planted

870

880

900

900

900

900

Area Harvested

867

871

809

800

875

885

Beginning Stocks

683

683

1032

1053

809

950

Production

2317

2330

2412

2430

2450

2570

MY Imports

15006

15006

14000

14660

14800

14800

MY Imp. from U.S.

5651

5651

4500

5000

4500

5000

Total Supply

18006

18019

17444

18143

18059

18320

MY Exports

144

144

200

130

200

150

Crush

15200

15192

14800

15428

15400

15510

Food Use Dom. Cons.

230

230

235

235

240

240

Feed Waste Dom.

1400

1400

1400

1400

1400

1400

Total Dom. Cons.

16830

16822

16435

17063

17040

17150

Ending Stocks

1032

1053

809

950

819

1020

Total Distribution

18006

18019

17444

18143

18059

18320









Meal, Soybean

Meal, Soybean

Market Begin Year

Oct 2015

Oct 2016

Oct 2017

European Union

USDA

Official

New

Post

USDA

Official

New

Post

USDA

Official

New

Post

Crush

15200

15192

14800

15428

15400

15510

Extr. Rate, 999.9999

0.79

0.79

0.79

0.78

0.79

0.78

Beginning Stocks

633

633

455

470

225

480

Production

12008

12100

11692

11980

12166

12050

MY Imports

19208

19208

19000

19580

19600

19800

MY Imp. from U.S.

343

343

1000

1000

1000

1000

Total Supply

31849

31941

31147

32030

31991

32330

MY Exports

302

302

330

260

300

250

Industrial Dom. Cons.

10

10

10

10

10

10

Food Use Dom. Cons.

32

32

32

32

32

32

Feed Waste Dom.

31050

31127

30550

31248

31400

31538

Total Dom. Cons.

31092

31169

30592

31290

31442

31580

Ending Stocks

455

470

225

480

249

500

Total Distribution

31849

31941

31147

32030

31991

32330

Oil, Soybean

Oil, Soybean

2015/2016

2016/2017

2017/2018

Market Begin Year

Oct 2015

Oct 2016

Oct 2017

European Union

USDA

Official

New

Post

USDA

Official

New

Post

USDA

Official

New

Post

Crush

15200

15192

14800

15428

15400

15510

Extr. Rate, 999.9999

0.19

0.19

0.19

0.18

0.19

0.18

Beginning Stocks

214

214

207

196

134

199

Production

2888

2860

2812

2830

2926

2850

MY Imports

325

325

270

240

250

230

MY Imp. from U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Supply

3427

3399

3289

3266

3310

3279

MY Exports

915

925

850

860

900

870

Industrial Dom. Cons.

950

923

950

852

900

779

Food Use Dom. Cons.

1300

1300

1300

1300

1300

1300

Feed Waste Dom.

55

55

55

55

55

55

Total Dom. Cons.

2305

2278

2305

2207

2255

2134

Ending Stocks

207

196

134

199

155

275

Total Distribution

3427

3399

3289

3266

3310

3279

MY 2017/18

In MY 2017/18, soybean production is expected to increase slightly compared to MY 2016/17 because of higher areas in Italy, France, Romania, and Austria. While yields in Italy, Croatia, Austria, and Hungary are expected to slightly decline, yields in France and Romania are expected to increase.

Driven by extremely competitive soybean and soybean meals prices, imports are expected to grow leading to higher available soybean seeds and higher crush. As the Dutch sector is reducing its phosphate emissions, soybean meal use is forecast to increase in the Netherlands, in particular by the swine sector, replacing rapeseed meal. In Poland, increased corn imports will cover the feed compound sector demand, which would encourage increased participation of soybean meal in the feed formula.

MY 2016/2017

Imports of soybeans are expected to decline because of higher EU soybean production and higher than expected processing of sunflowerseed and rapeseeds. On the other hand, soymeal feed use is up because of its price competiveness versus rapeseed meal.

Rapeseed Complex

Oilseed, Rapeseed

Oilseed, Rapeseed

2015/2016

2016/2017

2017/2018

Market Begin Year

Jul 2015

Jul 2016

Jul 2017

European Union

USDA

Official

New

Post

USDA

Official

New

Post

USDA

Official

New

Post

Area Planted

6580

6580

6500

6600

6600

6700

Area Harvested

6507

6514

6567

6540

6650

6700

Beginning Stocks

1944

1944

1871

1891

1112

1366

Production

21997

21997

20471

20515

21150

21400

MY Imports

3494

3494

4400

4700

4000

3800

MY Imp. from U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Supply

27435

27435

26742

27106

26262

26566

MY Exports

344

344

330

340

350

350

Crush

24320

24300

24400

24500

23800

24300

Food Use Dom. Cons.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Feed Waste Dom.

900

900

900

900

900

900

Total Dom. Cons.

25220

25200

25300

25400

24700

25200

Ending Stocks

1871

1891

1112

1366

1212

1016

Total Distribution

27435

27435

26742

27106

26262

26566

Meal, Rapeseed

Meal, Rapeseed

2015/2016

2016/2017

2017/2018

Market Begin Year

Jul 2015

Jul 2016

Jul 2017

European Union

USDA

Official

New

Post

USDA

Official

New

Post

USDA

Official

New

Post

Crush

24320

24300

24400

24500

23800

24300

Extr. Rate, 999.9999

0.57

0.57

0.57

0.57

0.57

0.57

Beginning Stocks

218

218

220

208

108

153

Production

13862

13850

13908

13970

13566

13850

MY Imports

409

409

230

225

420

350

MY Imp. from U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Supply

14489

14477

14358

14403

14094

14353

MY Exports

469

469

450

450

450

450

Industrial Dom. Cons.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Food Use Dom. Cons.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Feed Waste Dom.

13800

13800

13800

13800

13500

13750

Total Dom. Cons.

13800

13800

13800

13800

13500

13750

Ending Stocks

220

208

108

153

144

153

Total Distribution

14489

14477

14358

14403

14094

14353

Oil, Rapeseed

Oil, Rapeseed

2015/2016

2016/2017

2017/2018

Market Begin Year

Jul 2015

Jul 2016

Jul 2017

European Union

USDA

Official

New

Post

USDA

Official

New

Post

USDA

Official

New

Post

Crush

24320

24300

24400

24500

23800

24300

Extr. Rate, 999.9999

0.418

0.418

0.418

0.418

0.418

0.418

Beginning Stocks

513

513

481

477

250

517

Production

10166

10157

10199

10240

9948

10157

MY Imports

198

207

150

140

200

150

MY Imp. from U.S.

2

2

0

0

0

0

Total Supply

10877

10877

10830

10857

10398

10824

MY Exports

346

350

330

340

300

350

Industrial Dom. Cons.

7150

7200

7100

7100

7000

7100

Food Use Dom. Cons.

2850

2800

3100

2850

2800

2850

Feed Waste Dom.

50

50

50

50

50

50

Total Dom. Cons.

10050

10050

10250

10000

9850

10000

Ending Stocks

481

477

250

517

248

474

Total Distribution

10877

10877

10830

10857

10398

10824

The EU is the world’s largest producer of rapeseed and rapeseed products. The two largest producers of rapeseed within the EU are Germany and France, followed by Poland, the United Kingdom, Romania, and the Czech Republic. Rapeseed meal demand is driven by the livestock and dairy sectors. The main driver for the demand of rapeseed oil is the biodiesel industry, but food and industrial uses for rapeseed oil influence demand as well. Europe’s demand for rapeseed exceeds its domestic supply, which leads to the import of large quantities of rapeseed for crushing.

MY 2017/18

EU farmers increased rapeseed area to 6.7 Million hectare in MY 2017/18. Specifically, farmers in Romania and Poland planted more rapeseed due to good profitability. Estonia, Spain, Germany, and Hungary also reported increased rapeseed acreage for MY 2017/18. These gains in acreage offset drastically reduced plantings in Northern France and minor decreases in Bulgaria and the United Kingdom. Rapeseed production in the EU is currently forecast to increase by over 4% to 21.4 MMT in MY 2017/18. Farmers’ increased acreage and yields are expected to be higher than in the previous marketing year. Growing conditions were overall good due to a mild winter; winterkill was very limited. However, there was a lack of rain in many growing regions during winter and spring. In total, EU rapeseed production had to be adjusted upwards from previous estimates due to gains in Romania, France, the United Kingdom, Slovak Republic, Poland, Bulgaria, and Hungary. Yields are expected to be very good in Romania, the UK, Slovak Republic, and Poland. In Romania and Poland, replanting in spring was lower than expected. Acreage in France was revised upwards. In Germany, late frost in April damaged flowers and there was persistent dryness in major growing regions until June. Thus, the forecast for Germany had to be adjusted downwards from previous estimates. Same for the Czech Republic due to the dry spring.

The EU market for rapeseed will remain rather tight in MY 2017/18. Though the rapeseed crop was higher than expected, the EU will remain a major importer. The world market for rapeseed in MY 2017/18 looks even tighter and the EU is expected to have to compete with China for produce. EU imports are expected to decrease. Ukraine will have a larger crop but Australian production will decrease significantly after its bumper crop in 2016/17; Ukrainian product will replace Australian origin imports to some extent ent of. EU rapeseed crush had to be adjusted upwards due to increased availability of domestically produced rapeseed. Still, EU rapeseed crush is expected to decrease compared to the previous MY. Ending stocks will shrink further. Rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil production follow crush numbers. Use of rapeseed meal in feed ratios is expected to remain fairly stable. That means sunflower meal, soybean meal, and grains are expected to replace rapeseed meal in feed ratios to some extent. Use of rapeseed oil for industrial, food and feed remains stable compared with the previous marketing year. Rapeseed oil ending stocks are expected to decrease slightly.

MY 2016/17

EU rapeseed production for MY 2016/17 was revised slightly upwards to 20.5 MMT. This is still nearly 1.5 MMT lower than the crop in the previous MY and the lowest EU production since 2012/13. The lower supply of domestic production led to record imports from Australia, Ukraine, and Canada. Specifically, record imports from Australia and stock supply more than offset lower production. It is expected that rapeseed crushin the EU will be higher than the previous marketing year. Stocks are expected to be significantly lower at the end of the MY. Consumption of rapeseed meal is expected to remain stable. For rapeseed oil, the larger supply is expected to result in higher food use. Rapeseed oil is gaining popularity especially in the United Kingdom. It also expected that rapeseed oil will replace palm oil in industrial use to some extent.

Sunflower Complex

Oilseed,

Sunflowerseed

Oilseed,

2015/2016

2016/2017

2017/2018

Market Begin Year

Oct 2015

Oct 2016

Oct 2017

European Union

USDA

Official

New

Post

USDA

Official

New

Post

USDA

Official

New

Post

Area Harvested

4171

4173

4140

4154

4133

4180

Beginning Stocks

949

949

645

645

508

635

Production

7720

7720

8353

8580

8380

8580

MY Imports

622

622

650

680

600

500

MY Imp. from U.S.

40

0

40

0

0

0

Total Supply

9291

9291

9648

9905

9488

9715

MY Exports

426

426

400

550

350

500

Crush

7200

7200

7700

7680

7550

7600

Food Use Dom. Cons.

540

540

540

540

540

540

Feed Waste Dom.

480

480

500

500

500

500

Total Dom. Cons.

8220

8220

8740

8720

8590

8640

Ending Stocks

645

645

508

635

548

575

Total Distribution

9291

9291

9648

9905

9488

9715

Meal, Sunflowerseed

Meal, Sunflowerseed

2015/2016

2016/2017

2017/2018

Market Begin Year

Oct 2015

Oct 2016

Oct 2017

European Union

USDA

Official

New

Post

USDA

Official

New

Post

USDA

Official

New

Post

Crush

7200

7200

7700

7680

7550

7600

Extr. Rate, 999.9999

0.54

0.54

0.54

0.54

0.54

0.54

Beginning Stocks

180

180

149

151

87

136

Production

3888

3900

4158

4145

4077

4110

MY Imports

3296

3296

3900

3800

4000

3830

MY Imp. from U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Supply

7364

7376

8207

8096

8164

8076

MY Exports

215

215

220

220

200

220

Industrial Dom. Cons.

0

60

0

60

0

60

Food Use Dom. Cons.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Feed Waste Dom.

7000

6950

7900

7680

7800

7640

Total Dom. Cons.

7000

7010

7900

7740

7800

7700

Ending Stocks

149

151

87

136

164

156

Total Distribution

7364

7376

8207

8096

8164

8076

Oil, Sunflowerseed

Oil, Sunflowerseed

2015/2016

2016/2017

2017/2018

Market Begin Year

Oct 2015

Oct 2016

Oct 2017

European Union

USDA

Official

New

Post

USDA

Official

New

Post

USDA

Official

New

Post

Crush

7200

7200

7700

7680

7550

7600

Extr. Rate, 999.9999

0.4225

0.4222

0.4225

0.4206

0.4225

0.4211

Beginning Stocks

302

302

202

230

215

225

Production

3042

3040

3253

3230

3190

3200

MY Imports

1392

1392

1500

1450

1700

1500

MY Imp. from U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Supply

4736

4734

4955

4910

5105

4925

MY Exports

374

374

430

430

350

345

Industrial Dom. Cons.

350

420

350

395

350

400

Food Use Dom. Cons.

3800

3700

3950

3850

4200

3950

Feed Waste Dom.

10

10

10

10

10

10

Total Dom. Cons.

4160

4130

4310

4255

4560

4360

Ending Stocks

202

230

215

225

195

220

Total Distribution

4736

4734

4955

4910

5105

4925

Sunflower Seeds

Most sunflower producing countries in the EU-28 increased planted area in the new marketing year with the highest growth in Romania, Bulgaria, Hungary, and Italy. The increase in planted area in Romania and Bulgaria was motivated by farmers’ preference towards sunflower as a more drought resilient crop compared to other spring crops (mainly corn) following two dry seasons, and by relatively stable prices in the current season. In France, on the other hand, the planted area stagnated and decreased to a historically low level due to lack of financial incentives for farmers to grow sunflower versus other crops. In Spain, the planted area was reduced by 3 percent compared to MY2016/17 due to unfavorable weather conditions (low surface and subsurface soil moisture) as well as poor crushing margins which discouraged growth in production. As a result, total planted area in the EU in MY2017/18 is estimated to be only marginally higher, less than one percent, compared to MY2016/17.

The weather conditions to date have been mixed for various member-states. Romania and Bulgaria benefitted from favorable rains in April and May although in late June and July the crop was affected by short heat waves and hail storms. The climate conditions in late July will be critical for the final crop development with current expectations for above average yields and higher production. On the other hand, Spain, France, parts of Italy, Hungary, Czech Republic, and Slovakia were affected by dry and hot weather in different stages of the crop development. While France still expects average yields and slightly higher production due to July rains, lower yields are estimated to result in reduction in production in Hungary (5 percent), and Spain (2 percent), followed by smaller decreases in Czech Republic, Slovakia, Greece, and Portugal.

At present, average EU-28 yields are projected to be slightly lower than MY2016/17 (2.05 MT/HA vs 2.07 MT/HA in 2016/17) and to result in no growth in sunflower seed production, steady at 8.58 MMT.

The sunflower crush demand is likely to be affected by the stronger competition from rapeseeds and soybeans, especially by the abundant availability of soybean meal on the world market. Crush margins are also likely to be discouraging growth in crush use. Expected bumper crops in Black Sea countries (Ukraine, Russia, Moldova) for a second year are projected to result in higher exportable quantities of sunflower meal and oil at competitive prices which may stimulate more EU imports than crush. For these reasons, the EU crush is estimated to decline by one percent from 8.7 MMT to 8.6 MMT but to still be at a high level to meet steadily growing feed use of sunflower meal and sunflower oil food consumption. It is expected that crush may be unevenly developed among members states. While France, Germany, Romania, and Bulgaria expect growth in crush, a significant reduction is foreseen in Hungary and Spain, followed by smaller reductions in Austria, Czech Republic, Portugal, and Greece.

Projected decline in EU crush is likely to reduce import needs of sunflower seeds considerably compared to the current record high imports season. Intra-trade of sunflower seeds is estimated to be stimulated by uneven production development among member-states. Exports to third markets are likely to decline on the expense of intra-trade.

MY2016/17

The EU production of sunflower was revised upward by 2.1 percent based on final, official statistical data. The revision was made for Romania and Bulgaria where production was reported higher than previously expected, and for France where production is revised downward.Import and export estimates are revised higher based on the latest trade data from the member-states. The estimates show that in the current year the EU is importing record high quantities of sunflower seeds originating mainly from the Black Sea exporters (Moldova and Ukraine) due to demand for price competitive raw material for crush.Crush was revised upward to a record high level as a result of the latest national estimates although it is still lower than the USDA official estimate. The estimated growth in crush compared to MY2015/16 is at 480,000 MT or 6.7 percent. Higher production and trade are projected to result in more than earlier expected ending stocks.

Sunflower Meal

MY2017/18

EU-28 sunflower meal output is forecast to decrease by one percent in line with the reduced crush. Lower domestic supply is projected to lead to growing imports to meet the feed demand. Abundant and competitive regional supply is also likely to stimulate imports. Sunflower meal exports are forecast to stagnate.

The demand for sunflower meal, although stimulated by very good price competitiveness, abundant Black Sea regional supply and steadily growing feed use in the EU, might be challenged by better competitiveness of the soybean meal. Hungary, Germany, and Austria expect a reduction in sunflower meal use while the other member-states project stable or higher use, led by France and the United Kingdom. Other major consumers of sunflower meal (Spain, Italy, the Netherlands) forecast a stable use. Thus, the EU meal consumption is projected to still be strong but less than one percent lower in MY2017/18 compared to the current season. Sunflower meal incorporation in animal rations may see a minor decline.

MY2016/17

EU-28 sunflower meal output was adjusted due to the revised crush. Despite better domestic availabilities, imports are revised upward based on the latest trade estimates of member-states to meet stronger domestic feed demand. The EU is likely to see record high use of sunflower meal in the current season due to its excellent availability, good quality, and price attractiveness. Larg users of sunflower meal - Spain, Germany, Hungary, the United Kingdom, and Romania - revised their previous estimates and expect higher use of sunflower meal compared to MY2015/16. Italy's use is stable while France has a decrease in sunflower meal consumption.

MY2015/16

New data about industrial use of sunflower meal (sunflower hulls used for energy production, mainly in Bulgaria) was included in the balance.

Sunflower Oil

MY2017/18

Production of sunflower oil is projected slightly lower due to the reduced crush. The trend is estimated to be unevenly distributed among member states with France, Romania, Bulgaria, and Germany expecting better output while Spain and Hungary foresee sharper decreases.Slightly lower production of sunflower oil is projected to be compensated by higher imports. The EU-28 domestic demand for sunflower oil is expected to continue to be favorable. Currently it is estimated to achieve 2.5 percent higher consumption, and to be at the highest level for the last three seasons. Still the current projection is more conservative, below USDA official estimate. Exports are forecast to decline due to stronger domestic demand.

MY2016/17

The output of sunflower oil is adjusted to the revised higher crush. Thus higher oil production in Hungary and Bulgaria more than offsets a decline in France. Imports are revised upward based on the latest trade estimates of member-states driven by excellent food use demand. Revised estimates for higher food use in Hungary, Germany, the United Kingdom, Poland and Bulgaria compensate for a decline in France.

MY2015/16

New data for industrial use of sunflower oil (for electricity production, mainly in Italy) was included in the balance and the estimate was revised upward.

Policy Update Protein Deficiency

On July, 17, 2017, on the sidelines of the Agriculture and Fisheries Council in Brussels, twelve Member States, signed the European Soy Declaration which aims to boost soy production in the EU. While not an EU binding policy, Ministers of Agriculture of Austria, Croatia, Finland, France, Germany, Hungary, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Poland, Romania, Slovenia and Slovakia signed the declaration and agreed to implement the provision of this declaration.

The declaration also includes a provision on GMO-free feed, whereby signatories “support the further development of markets for sustainably cultivated non-GMO soybeans and soybean products”.