Highlights

Pakistan continues to increase its purchasing of soybeans and imports are expected to reach a record 1.6 million metric tons (MMT) during 2016/17 and 2.0 MMT during 2017/18. Higher imports are a reflection of a tariff structure that favors soybeans over soymeal and growing demand from Pakistan’s poultry sector. Imports of edible oils are proving to be slower than forecast as higher prices curb demand and increased imports and crushing of canola and soybeans offset some of the need for edible oil imports. Imports of both palm oil and soybean oil are now expected lower, but Pakistan remains one of the largest vegetable oil importers.

Soybean Imports Continue to Rise

Continued demand for protein meal from Pakistan’s poultry feed sector is expected to push soybean imports to a record 1.6 MMT during the current marketing year. The creation of a tariff structure a few years ago that favors imports of soybeans over soymeal continues to change the import mix. Exports of soybeans to Pakistan reached a record 835,000 metric tons during the first eight months of 2016/17; out of this 363,113 metric tons were sourced from USA. Currently, an additional 586,000 metric tons are booked for nearby delivery, with the expectation that a further 160,000 metric tons will be purchased for 2016/17 delivery. Imports in 2017/18 are expected to climb to 2.0 MMT. Importers continue to source small quantities of soybean meal when pricing is favorable and imports are expected to reach 360,000 metric tons during the current marketing year based on imports to date and estimated bookings.

Rapeseed and Sunflower Seed Imports Outpacing Last Year’s Level

Purchases of rapeseed and sunflower seed through the first eight months of the 2016/17 marketing year are assessed at 834,981 metric tons and 101,981 metric tons respectively. Imports of rapeseed are up from the marketing year estimate of 800,000 tons and are projected at 1.15 MMT; 2017/18 imports are projected at 1.2 million tons. Sunflower seed imports are on pace to reach the forecast of 150,000 metric tons. Pricing plays an important role in the decision to import these seeds, but tastes and preferences also play a role given consumer preferences for the oils that are extracted from these high-oil-content seeds.

Edible Oil Import Shows Downward Trend

Government of Pakistan import data for the first eight months of 2016/17 indicate that imports of palm oil and soybean oil decreased from the corresponding period of the last year. This decrease is mainly due to higher prices of these oils in the international market. Palm oil dominates the imported vegetable oil market and is commonly blended with other oils and sold as cooking oil. A significant amount of oil available from oilseed crushing will augment the overall availability of edible oil in the country and palm oil imports are now expected 200,000 metric tons.

Oilseed, Soybean

Oilseed, Soybean

2015/2016

2016/2017

2017/2018

Market Begin Year

Oct 2015

Oct 2016

Oct 2017

Pakistan

USDA Official

New Post

USDA Official

New Post

USDA Official

New Post

Area Planted

2

2

2

2

2

2

Area Harvested

2

2

2

2

2

2

Beginning Stocks

38

38

38

40

38

40

Production

2

2

2

2

2

2

MY Imports

1250

1132

1350

1600

1620

2000

MY Imp. from U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

MY Imp. from EU

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Supply

1290

1172

1390

1642

1660

2042

MY Exports

0

0

0

0

0

0

MY Exp. to EU

0

0

0

0

0

0

Crush

1250

1130

1350

1600

1600

2000

Food Use Dom. Cons.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Feed Waste Dom. Cons.

2

2

2

2

0

2

Total Dom. Cons.

1252

1132

1352

1602

1600

2002

Ending Stocks

38

40

38

40

60

40

Total Distribution

1290

1172

1390

1642

1660

2042

CY Imports

841

0

1300

0

1500

0

CY Imp. from U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

CY Exports

0

0

0

0

0

0

CY Exp. to U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Yield

1

1

1

1

1

1

Meal, soybean

Meal, Soybean

2015/2016

2016/2017

2017/2018

Market Begin Year

Oct 2015


Oct 2016


Oct 2017


Pakistan

USDA Official

New Post

USDA Official

New Post

USDA Official

New Post

Crush

1250

1130

1350

1600

1600

2000

Extr. Rate, 999.9999

0.784

0.7876

0.7852

0.7813

0.875

0.78

Beginning Stocks

278

278

69

150

124

150

Production

980

890

1060

1250

1400

1560

MY Imports

366

370

700

360

450

350

MY Imp. from U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

MY Imp. from EU

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Supply

1624

1538

1829

1760

1974

2060

MY Exports

5

0

5

0

3

0

MY Exp. to EU

0

0

0

0

0

0

Industrial Dom. Cons.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Food Use Dom. Cons.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Feed Waste Dom. Cons.

1550

1388

1700

1610

1850

1900

Total Dom. Cons.

1550

1388

1700

1610

1850

1900

Ending Stocks

69

150

124

150

121

160

Total Distribution

1624

1538

1829

1760

1974

2060

Oil, Soybean

Oil, Soybean

2015/2016

2016/2017

2017/2018

Market Begin Year

Oct 2015

Oct 2016

Oct 2017

Pakistan

USDA Official

New Post

USDA Official

New Post

USDA Official

New Post

Crush

1250

1130

1350

1600

1600

2000

Extr. Rate, 999.9999

0.176

0.177

0.1778

0.1813

0.1625

0.18

Beginning Stocks

17

17

6

12

11

22

Production

220

200

240

290

260

360

MY Imports

184

260

200

100

250

150

MY Imp. from U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

MY Imp. from EU

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Supply

421

477

446

402

521

532

MY Exports

0

0

0

0

0

0

MY Exp. to EU

0

0

0

0

0

0

Industrial Dom. Cons.

5

5

5

10

0

10

Food Use Dom. Cons.

410

460

430

370

500

522

Feed Waste Dom. Cons.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Dom. Cons.

415

465

435

380

500

532

Ending Stocks

6

12

11

22

21

0

Total Distribution

421

477

446

402

521

532

Oilseed, Rapeseed

Oilseed, Rapeseed

2015/2016

2016/2017

2017/2018

Market Begin Year

Oct 2015

Oct 2016

Oct 2017

Pakistan

USDA Official

New Post

USDA Official

New Post

USDA Official

New Post

Area Planted

225

225

210

210

220

200

Area Harvested

225

225

210

210

200

200

Beginning Stocks

35

35

122

30

107

35

Production

215

215

200

200

190

190

MY Imports

1242

1100

1200

1150

1210

1200

MY Imp. from U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

MY Imp. from EU

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Supply

1492

1350

1522

1380

1507

1425

MY Exports

0

0

0

0

0

0

MY Exp. to EU

0

0

0

0

0

0

Crush

1355

1280

1400

1330

1400

1370

Food Use Dom. Cons.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Feed Waste Dom. Cons.

15

40

15

15

15

15

Total Dom. Cons.

1370

1320

1415

1345

1415

1385

Ending Stocks

122

30

107

35

92

40

Total Distribution

1492

1350

1522

1380

1507

1425

Meal, Rapeseed

Meal, Rapeseed

2015/2016

2016/2017

2017/2018

Market Begin Year

Oct 2015

Oct 2016

Oct 2017

Pakistan

USDA Official

New Post

USDA Official

New Post

USDA Official

New Post

Crush

1355

1280

1400

1330

1400

1370

Extr. Rate, 999.9999

0.5793

0.5859

0.5714

0.5789

0.5857

0.5803

Beginning Stocks

18

18

19

19

22

23

Production

785

750

800

770

820

795

MY Imports

0

30

0

0

0

0

MY Imp. from U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

MY Imp. from EU

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Supply

803

798

819

789

842

818

MY Exports

4

10

2

10

2

10

MY Exp. to EU

0

0

0

0

0

0

Industrial Dom. Cons.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Food Use Dom. Cons.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Feed Waste Dom. Cons.

780

769

795

756

820

793

Total Dom. Cons.

780

769

795

756

820

793

Ending Stocks

19

19

22

23

20

15

Total Distribution

803

798

819

789

842

818

Oil, Rapeseed

Oil, Rapeseed

2015/2016

2016/2017

2017/2018

Market Begin Year

Oct 2015

Oct 2016

Oct 2017

Pakistan

USDA Official

New Post

USDA Official

New Post

USDA Official

New Post

Crush

1355

1280

1400

1330

1400

1370

Extr. Rate, 999.9999

0.3911

0.3984

0.3929

0.4

0.3929

0.4

Beginning Stocks

16

16

40

39

54

28

Production

530

510

550

532

550

548

MY Imports

0

0

0

0

0

0

MY Imp. from U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

MY Imp. from EU

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Supply

546

526

590

571

604

576

MY Exports

0

0

0

0

0

0

MY Exp. to EU

0

0

0

0

0

0

Industrial Dom. Cons.

10

10

10

10

10

10

Food Use Dom. Cons.

495

476

525

532

550

540

Feed Waste Dom. Cons.

1

1

1

1

0

1

Total Dom. Cons.

506

487

536

543

560

551

Ending Stocks

40

39

54

28

44

25

Total Distribution

546

526

590

571

604

576

Oil, Palm

Oil, Palm

2015/2016

2016/2017

2017/2018

Market Begin Year

Oct 2015

Oct 2016

Oct 2017

Pakistan

USDA Official

New Post

USDA Official

New Post

USDA Official

New Post

Area Planted

0

0

0

0

0

0

Area Harvested

0

0

0

0

0

0

Trees

0

0

0

0

0

0

Beginning Stocks

382

382

287

287

292

292

Production

0

0

0

0

0

0

MY Imports

2720

2700

3000

3000

3100

3100

MY Imp. from U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

MY Imp. from EU

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Supply

3102

3082

3287

3287

3392

3392

MY Exports

0

50

0

50

0

50

MY Exp. to EU

0

0

0

0

0

0

Industrial Dom. Cons.

70

70

70

70

0

70

Food Use Dom. Cons.

2670

2600

2850

2800

2940

2950

Feed Waste Dom. Cons.

75

75

75

75

90

75

Total Dom. Cons.

2815

2745

2995

2945

3030

3095

Ending Stocks

287

287

292

292

362

247

Total Distribution

3102

3082

3287

3287

3392

3392

CY Imports

2900

2900

3100

3100

3200

0

CY Imp. from U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

CY Exports

0

0

0

0

0

0

CY Exp. to U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Yield

0

0

0

0

0

0