Highlights

Reductions in government support to corn production encouraged Chinese farmers to plant more oilseeds, primarily soybeans. Hence, Post’s forecast MY17/18 for Chinese soybean production stands at 14.1 million metric tons (MMT) or a net growth of 1 MMT. This is based on acreage increase of 9.1 percent from the previous year. However, China’s rising demand for oilseeds continues to far exceed the growth in domestic oilseed production. Chinese oilseed imports are expected to grow to another forecast record of 91.5 (MMT) in MY17/18, up 3 MMT compared to the previous year estimate. Forecast steady economic growth at about 6.7 percent in 2017, and the continuous modernization of China’s domestic feed and livestock sectors are boosting consumption of oilseed products. Soybean meal use is partially up driven by a significant fall in imports of distiller's dried grains (DDGS) imports since January 2017.

Executive Summary

Reductions in government support to corn production encouraged Chinese farmers to plant more oilseeds, primarily soybeans. Hence, Post’s forecast MY17/18 for Chinese soybean production stands at 14.1 million metric tons (MMT) or a net growth of 1 MMT. This is based on acreage increase of 9.1 percent from the previous year. However, China’s rising demand for oilseeds continues to far exceed the growth in domestic oilseed production. Chinese oilseed imports are expected to grow to another forecast record of 91.5 (MMT) in MY17/18, up 3 MMT compared to the previous year estimate. Forecast steady economic growth at about 6.7 percent in 2017, and the continuous modernization of China’s domestic feed and livestock sectors are boosting consumption of oilseed products. Adequate global supply of oilseeds encouraged Chinese importers to buy more soybeans with total soybeans imports estimated at 88.5 MMT in MY16/17, up by over 5 MMT compared to the previous year. In addition, soybean meal use is partially up driven by a significant fall in DDGS imports as a result of China’s high anti-dumping duty imposed on U.S. imports since January 2017. Despite increases to soybean acreage, significant increase in total oilseed acreage and production is unlikely given China’s limited arable land and continuously low productivity.

The forecasting China’s meal and oil use, and total oilseed demand remains a challenge due to difficulties in collecting data mainly due to massive players in each part of the oilseed industry chain. This is particularly true with data pertaining to rapeseed and peanut area and production; soybean use as food or feed; feed and livestock production; and the unknown volume of soybean and vegetable oils reserves.

Soybeans

Production

Post’s forecast for MY17/18 soybean production is 14.1 MMT, up 1 MMT from MY16/17 on forecast 9.1 percent increase in planted area. This forecast production is slightly higher than the USDA June 2017 official forecast of 13.8 MMT. The forecast recovery in soybean area to 7.8 MHa is mostly due to changes in the government’s grain support policy, which lowered corn profits for MY16/17 and encouraged some farmers to add soybean acreage in MY17/18.

Since MY15/16, the government prescribed a lower purchase price for corn which lowered corn earnings. Moreover, the government’s “target price-based direct subsidy” for soybeans continued in MY16/17 in the four Northeastern Provinces. Soybean farmers in these provinces were compensated based on the difference between the market price and the target price and resulted in relatively stable soybean earnings.

In late March 2017, the Chinese government announced that in MY17/18 the “target price-based direct subsidy” for soybeans will be replaced by a “market-oriented soybeans price plus a direct subsidy to soybean farmers.” This policy is similar the government’s support program enforced on corn since 2015. Although no detailed subsidy policy has been made public, the announcement reassures farmers that they will receive a subsidy for planting soybeans in MY17/18. The government also called for more forage area including silage corn in the Northeast and Northwest regions to ease the pressure of the government’s still high corn stocks. China’s Ministry of Agriculture (MOA)’s estimate and forecast for a decline of corn acreage and increase in soybean acreage from MY15/16 to MY17/18. During MY15/16 to MY17/18, over half of the reduced corn area, averaging 1,255,000 Ha a year, switched to soybeans with yearly area gain of 655,000 Ha. MY17/18 soybean area to rise by 10.4 percent to 7.9 MHa, and production to increase by 12.2 percent (or 1.53 MMT) to 14.1 MMT. Soybean planted area for Inner Mongolia is expected to grow 12.5 percent from the previous year, soybean area in Heilongjiang and the hilly region of Jilin province is also expected to increase.

The planted area will increase by 10.5 percent to 7.9 MHa in MY17/18. Heilongjiang province, the largest soybean-producing province will experience a 17.9 percent growth in acreage to 3.3 MHa in MY17/18, the highest since 2011. CNGOIC forecast for MY17/18 soybean production is 14.3 MMT assuming normal weather conditions in the coming months.

As of the beginning of June, farmers in the four Northeastern provinces had finished soybean planting. The temperature and moisture conditions during May in most of these four provinces remained generally favorable for soybean planting and growth. However, in early May, high temperatures and shortage of rainfall were reported in part of eastern Inner Mongolia and western Liaoning but was eased by rainfall in later part of May with some impact on soybean growth. Additionally, soybean growth was slightly delayed in the Nenjiang region in Heilongjiang and Dayangshu in Inner Mongolia as a result of low temperatures during late May. Post expects MY17/18 soybean planted acreage in other provinces to stay stable or slightly up from the previous year. Soybean planting in these provinces is not entitled to the government price support. However, in general, soybeans enjoy a premium as easy delivery can satisfy the local demand for soybeans for food use at relatively high profits. From MY12/13 to MY16/17, soybean production in these provinces remained stable ranging from 6 to 6.5 MMT per year. The soybean planting in Anhui and Shandong remained stable in MY17/18 given the lack of significant profit advantages among other competing crops. Based on the current soybean growth and weather conditions, Post forecasts for MY17/18 soybean yield will follow the trend in recent years at 1,808Kg/Ha.

Stocks

Currently, the government’s soybean reserves are estimated at about 4.4 MMT. Industry sources expect the government may auction part of these stocks in the latter second half of 2017. Given the government’s suspension of direct purchases of domestic oilseeds, and the maintenance of a moderate vegetable oil reserve as a market regulating tool, MY17/18 soybean ending stocks are forecast at 17.5 MMT, slightly up from MY16/17.

Trade

MY17/18 soybean imports are forecast to set a new record at 91.5 MMT from the estimated 88.5 MMT in MY16/17. Record imports are still driven by robust Chinese consumption of soybean products (meal and oil) which cannot be satisfied by the weak growth in domestic soybean production. Since late 2016, adequate global soybean supplies at favorable prices have encouraged Chinese buyers to add more imports. The preliminary estimate for soybean imports in the first three quarters of MY16/17 will reach 67.7 MMT, up 11.8 percent or a net growth of over 7 MMT compared to the same period last year. The rapid increase of soybean imports resulted in high soybeans and soybean meal inventory in crushing plants during the second quarter of 2017. Some crushing plants were forced to suspend operation to ease soybean meal stockpiles. Since February 2017, soybean crushing margins turned negative and this trend is expected to continue in the last months of MY16/17. In June 2017, the Chinese media reported that the government reiterated a ban of imported soybeans for food use implying a lower probability for Chinese oilseed crushers to ease the pressure of their relatively high soybean stockpiles. Post’s MY16/17 estimate for soybean imports is 88.5 MMT, a net increase of more than 5 MMT from the MY15/16 level. Post’s MY17/18 forecast for soybean imports is up to 91.5 MMT with net increase of 3 MMT from MY16/17. In MY16/17, China’s imports of U.S. soybeans are expected to surge to over 35 MMT from the 28.9 MMT in MY15/16. The U.S. soybean market share is expected to recover to over 39 percent in from the 35 percent in MY15/16. China’s soybean exports, mostly destined for traditional food use, are forecast at 150,000 tons for MY17/18, up from the MY16/17 estimate but still insignificant to China’s total soybean complex.

Changes to Grain Support Policies Continue to Boost Soybean Acreage

In an effort to reduce the large and high-priced corn stocks accumulated during China’s minimum price support purchase program, in MY16/17 the government’s corn reserve policy in the four Northeastern provinces was replaced by a new mechanism of “market oriented purchases plus a direct subsidy to corn farmer.” This change in policy significantly reduced corn profits for MY16/17.

The Chinese government’s plan to cut corn acreage by another 10 million mu (or 667,000 Ha) in 2017 appears to have been realized. Substitute crops include soybeans, forage crops including silage corn, potato and other cash crops suitable to local conditions. On June 20, 2017, the Chinese government announced that a three year trial program to rotate corn planting and to leave some land fallow will be implemented in 2017. The government will appropriate RMB2.56 billion ($375 million) in funds to pay to farmers as direct subsidies for the implementation of the program. The program covers 667,000 hectares for growers to rotate between corn and other crops like soybeans and 133,000 hectares to lie fallow in 2017. The funds will go mainly to farmers in the northeast where soybeans have been previously planted.

In MY17/18, the three-year trial program in the four Northeastern provinces of paying a direct subsidy to farmers based on a target price was replaced by a “market-oriented soybean price plus a direct subsidy to soybean farmers.” Industry sources report that in MY15/16, the direct subsidy to farmers ranged from RMB1,960 ($311)/Ha in Heilongjiang Province to RMB3,000 ($476)/Ha in Lining Province. A similar value is estimated for the direct subsidy in MY16/17. The MY17/18 policy details have not been announced. However, the direct subsidy amount for soybean farmers is unlikely to fall from the previous year.

Rapeseed

Rapeseed production numbers remain contradictory

Post’s forecast for MY17/18 rapeseed production is down to 13.1 MMT. The lower forecast is based on area fall of 3 percent from the previous year in response to lower profits and the abolishment of the government’s price support. Farmers completed the harvest of rapeseed (winter crop) at the beginning of June. In its June report, CNGOIC raised its MY17/18 rapeseed production forecast to 13.74 MMT based on a good yield of 1,997 Kg/Ha from the 1,972 Kg/Ha during the previous year. The yield gain is mainly due to favorable weather conditions during the harvest season. Post’s estimate for MY16/17 rapeseed production is 13.5 MMT, supporting the USDA June official data, but still lower than the CNGOIC estimate of 14 MMT and the 14.55 MMT released by China’s National Statistics Bureau (NSB). MY17/18 rapeseed production in Hubei increased by 3.9 percent to 2.51 MMT, rapeseed yield increased in Jiangsu and Anhui but was down in Henan. Conversely, in the northwest provinces the MY17/18 spring rapeseed area is projected to stay generally stable.

The following chart shows NSB production data for the last four years. The production of rapeseed harvested in the autumn appears to be stable. Since MY12/13, the gap between the NSB and the industry rapeseed production estimate has increased significantly, with an average annual difference of more than 5 MMT. An independent source continues to estimate an extremely low production of 5.22 MMT for MY16/17 based on firsthand anecdotal information from farmers/crushers and the market. Its forecast production for MY17/18 will further slide to 5.13 MMT. Post believes the production data gap exists but might not be as large as 5 MMT per year. An interesting trend worth noting is that in recent years farmers are increasingly choosing to crush rapeseed for oil for home use (particularly when the market price remains low) and small crushing facilities are producing “strong flavor rapeseed oil” (not refined) to cater to local cuisine. Large crushing plants in provinces such Hubei and Sichuan are increasingly facing a shortage of rapeseed to meet their crushing capacity. These trends further hinder the industry’s ability to collect data and develop estimates.

Trade

Rapeseed imports in MY17/18 are forecast to recover to 4.3 MMT from the estimated 4 MMT in MY16/17. Forecast import growth is mostly supported by low domestic production. Rapeseed imports stood at 2.71 MMT during the first eight months of MY16/17, slightly lower compared to the same period in MY15/16. In light of the declining domestic production and the excessive crushing capacity, rapeseed imports are expected to recover moderately in MY17/18 to meet domestic demand for rapeseed products and satisfy the domestic crushing capacity.

Peanuts

Peanut production continues to rise

China’s peanut production is forecast to rise to 17.4 MMT in MY17/18, up from the estimated 17 MMT in MY16/17. NSB MY16/17 production stood at 17.29 MMT compared to CNGOIC’s higher estimate of 17.7 MMT. CNGOIC ‘s June report forecast for MY17/18 production continues to rise to 18.1 MMT. Driven by strong domestic demand for peanut products, peanut farming has been the most profitable crop in many peanut-producing provinces (namely Henan, Shandong and Hebei). Based on an industry field survey in early June, MY17/18 peanut area is up slightly in Henan and Anhui Provinces while stable in Shandong and Liaoning Provinces.

An independent source made a much lower production estimate of 10.8 MMT for MY16/17 and forecast of 12 MMT for MY17/18. Industry traders speculate that during the past two marketing years, higher domestic peanut prices may be indicative of a lower peanut production than what has been officially reported.

Trade

MY17/18 imports are forecast at 500,000 tons, unchanged from the previous year based on a higher domestic production. Peanut imports reached a record of 541,000 tons in MY15/16 primarily due to more advantageous prices for imported peanuts. Imports of peanuts for food use remain low due to sufficient domestic supplies.

In MY15/16, Chinese imports of peanut oil continued to be high at 113,400 tons from the average 70,000 tons prior to MY14/15. Peanut oil imports are estimated at 100,000 tons for MY16/17, and unchanged in MY17/18 (equivalent to 315,000 tons of in-shell peanuts). Notwithstanding, peanut imports could potentially increase as Chinese crushers prefer to import seeds to crush rather than import peanut oil. In general, the share of imported peanuts remains small compared to China’s overall consumption. However, peanut imports could fall significantly if the price gap between domestic and global prices fails to offset the duty and Value Added Tax.

Chinese peanut exports are expected to grow to 580,000 tons in MY 17/18 from the estimated 500,000 tons in MY16/17. Exports totaled 484,000 tons in MY15/16. An increase in production may strengthen exports in search for better profits.

Cottonseed production is up to 9.5 MMT in MY17/18

Cottonseed production in MY17/18 is forecast to increase to 9.5 MMT, up from the estimated 8.9 MMT in the previous year. Based on a May survey by a leading industry source, MY17/18 cotton planting area is expected to increase by 6.8 percent from the previous year. The area expansion is in response to an increase in domestic cotton prices and recovered profits in MY16/17. The survey results show acreage recovery in the Yangtze and the Yellow River regions although the combined production accounts for less than 30 percent of total production. The Xinjiang cotton area is up 5.6 percent partly due to the government’s stable target price policy (with the target price at RMB18,600 or $2,735/ton) which guarantees basic earnings for cotton farmers.

Protein Meal Situation and Outlook

Protein meal consumption continues to be robust

China’s demand for protein meal continues to rise in MY17/18 mainly based on a forecast high GDP growth (up 6.7 percent in 2016 and similar in 2017). The rise is also supported by the increase of per capita disposal income boosting demand for more and better quality animal products (see more in GAIN CH17012 China Oilseeds Annual). Soybean meal continues to be the major protein source accounting for 77.6 percent of the forecast total protein feed meal consumption in MY17/18.

Preliminary industry statistics show that China’s feed production exceeded 115 MMT during the first five months of 2017, up 6.6 percent from the same period in 2016. The largest feed-producing province, Guangdong, reported a 15.7 percent growth in feed production in the first quarter of 2017 over the previous year. Steady growth and the advancement of the animal production sector (with increases in scale farming) continue to drive China’s industrialized feed production.

Since 2013, an outbreak of animal diseases and negative swine profits lowered China’s inventory of sows and swine through 2016. The government’s strict environmental regulations further contributed to the significant fall in swine/sow inventory in eastern provinces. However, high swine profits since late 2015 stimulated a recovery in swine inventory through the first months of MY16/17. New swine farming capacity is mostly added in the four Northeastern provinces and some inland provinces. Swine profits remained high in first months of MY16/17 but fell to about RMB300 ($45)/head in June 2017. Industry insiders believe swine inventory will continue on a moderate recovery and swine profits are expected to stabilize or lower slightly from the current level during the second half of 2017. Newly funded scale swine farms are increasing their technology and efficiency focusing on animal nutrition and hence are demanding more industrialized feed. Soybean meal inclusion in feed is expected to strengthen along with the growth of industrialized feed production.

In the first four months of 2017, China’s aquaculture continued to grow with cultured aquatic products totaling 14 MMT, up by 2.4 percent over the same period in 2016. The profits for aquaculture farms recovered with earnings up by 4 percent over the same period last year mainly due to moderate increases in the price of fishery products. China’s aquatic product exports also remained robust during the first four months of 2017. Export value grew by 1.6 percent and volume by 6 percent compared to the same period in the previous year. A lower production of wild caught aquatic in the first 4 months of 2017, down by 0.45 percent from the previous year, is likely to be substituted by more cultured products.

Growth in poultry production remained stable in the first months of 2017. However, the industry experienced consecutive losses due to declining egg and meat prices. The quick expansion of production since late 2016 resulted in supply of poultry products exceeding the demand in the first months of 2017. Additionally frequent outbreaks of diseases impacted poultry meat and egg consumption. Nonetheless, egg prices rebounded in June in response to high temperatures in some South and North poultry-producing provinces. China’s overall poultry production is expected to maintain an average growth in 2017.

Protein meal use is partly boosted by fewer imports of distiller's dried grains (DDGS) in 2017 and is expected to continue beyond this year. On January 11, 2017, China’s Ministry of Commerce (MOFCOM) announced it is final ruling on anti-dumping (AD) on DDGS from the United States by requiring importers to pay a combined duty and value added tax rate up to 91.26 percent of CNF price effective on January 12, 2017. As a result, China’s DDGS imports plummeted to an estimated 500,000 tons in 2017 from the yearly average of over 5 MMT in the last three years. This is equivalent to about 1 MMT less of protein supply which then needs to be substituted by other protein sources like soybean meal. Higher soybean meal consumption is also driven as the supply of other protein meals, in particular rapeseed meal.

Feed consumption driven by high investment on swine farming in 2016

Total investment in animal farming by agricultural related stock-listed companies surged to RMB49 billion ($7.2 billion) in 2016, ten times that of 2015. Out of the total, 84.5 percent ($6.1 billion) focused on swine farming with 153 newly added swine facilities located in 22 provinces and a small investment in Vietnam. It is estimated that 79 percent of these investments adopted a “company + swine farms/household” model, while 15.6 percent used a “whole production chain” (self-breeding and fattening) model. An additional 9 MMT of industry feed is needed if the above swine producing-capacity is in full operation.

The majority of the swine investment (or 83 percent) was done by feed companies while only 16 percent was done by animal farming companies. Industry analysts believe that by engaging in swine farming, the feed companies may enjoy an advantage in expanding their feed market share. Industry source estimated that by the time these facilities are in full operation, an additional 27 million heads of pigs can be slaughtered per year. By region, the new swine investment showed a significant move to the north with 59 percent invested in 5 Northern Provinces (Inner Mongolia, Henan, Heilongjiang, Shandong and Heibei) with Inner Mongolia topping the list receiving an investment of $1.86 billion.

Protein meal trade

Post’s forecast for MY17/18 soybean meal exports are stand at 1.8 MMT from the estimated 1.5 MMT in MY16/17. Outside of fish meal, protein meal trade continues to be unstable. Sporadic imports/exports of some protein meals will continue in the foreseeable future. Both feed mills and crushing plants may choose to trade between nearby countries rather than domestic provinces to regulate the regional supply/demand. The difference in market prices, cost effectiveness, and more importantly, ease of transport are factors impacting trade decisions. With the exceptions of soybean meal exports, the total trade volume for other oilseed meals are expected to be insignificant in China’s huge protein meal matrix.

Oil Situation and Outlook

China’s consumption of vegetable oils is expected to grow in MY17/18 driven by a forecast 6.7 percent growth in 2017 leading to an increase in disposable income and vegetable oil use.Industry statistics data show that in the first quarter of 2017, China’s catering sales value increased by 10.8 percent compared to the previous year. Instant noodle sector using large volumes of palm oil also reported a recovery in production and consumption during the first months of 2017.

MOA forecast MY17/18 total vegetable oil consumption at 31.63 MMT, up 170,000 tons over the previous year. CNGOIC’s MY17/18 forecast for vegetable oil consumption (as food use) is 33.95 MMT, up 1.35 MMT or 4.1 percent from its MY16/17 estimate of 32.6 MMT. Additionally, CNGOIC’s MY17/18 forecast for vegetable oil for industry use (mainly soy oil and palm oil) is 3.83 MMT compared to the 3.73 MMT in MY16/17. China’s vegetable oil production is projected to rise to 27.6 MMT in MY17/18 based on increased use of imported soybeans and rapeseeds for crushing. In MY17/18, soybean oil will continue to be the primary vegetable oil in China, accounting for 58.4 percent of total oil production. In MY17/18, domestic consumption of oil for food-use is forecast to grow 2 percent to 33 MMT from MY16/17. MY17/18 total oil imports are forecast at 7.4 MMT, slightly up from the 7.35 MMT in the previous year. Palm oil continues to dominate vegetable oil imports and is estimated to be stable at 4.9 MMT in MY16/17 and forecast at 5 MMT in MY17/18.

Total vegetable oil stocks are expected to fall to 3.9 MMT at the end of MY17/18 along with the government’s sale of vegetable oil reserves. Based on a CNGOIC report, the government sold 1.88 MMT out of the estimated 6.4 MMT of rapeseed oil reserves from October 2016 to the end of February 2017. As the oil reserves continue to age, there will be pressure for the government to hold auctions likely creating uncertainty in the Chinese vegetable oil market in 2017 and beyond.

Palm Oil

MY17/18 palm oil imports are forecast at 5 MMT, slightly up from the estimated 4.9 MMT in MY16/17. This level is higher than MY15/16 as a result of increased global supplies which may lead to more favorable prices. China’s food processing industry uses large amounts of palm oil in processed foods, especially instant noodles. Instant noodle production reported moderate recovery after continuous fall in recent 3 years. Industry sources said the instant noodle production and consumption both increased as a result of upgraded product quality which re-attracts consumers in 2017. In the first months of 2017, several large instant noodle brands reported increases in production of high-end products (more balanced in nutrition and value added). Food use of palm oil is increasingly challenged by adequate availability of other vegetable oils at acceptable prices.

Oilseed, Soybean

Oilseed, Soybean

2015/16

2016/17

2017/18

USDA

Official

Estimate

New

USDA

Official

Estimate

New

USDA

Official

Estimate

New

Market Year Begin

10/2015

10/2016

10/2017

Area Planted

6,6

6,506

7,2

7,15

7,6

7,8

Area Harvested

6,506

6,506

7,2

7,15

7,6

7,8

Beginning Stocks

17,009

17,009

16,91

16,91

17,56

17,09

Production

11,785

11,785

12,9

13,1

13,8

14,1

MY Imports

83,23

83,23

89

88,5

93

91,5

MY Imp. from U.S.

28,5

28,91

30

35

30

35

MY Imp. from EU

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Supply

112,024

112,024

118,81

118,51

124,36

122,69

MY Exports

114

114

150

120

150

150

MY Exp. to EU

10

10

10

10

10

11

Crush

81,3

81

86,5

86,5

91,5

90

Food Use Dom. Cons.

10,8

11,1

11,3

11,3

11,7

11,4

Feed Waste Dom. Cons.

2,9

2,9

3,3

3,5

3,6

3,6

Total Dom. Cons.

95

95

101,1

101,3

106,8

105

Ending Stocks

16,91

16,91

17,56

17,09

17,41

17,54

Total Distribution

112,024

112,024

118,81

118,51

124,36

122,69

CY Imports

83

83,232

88

88

92

92

CY Imp. from U.S.

29

33,66

30

35

30

35

CY Exports

150

150

150

150

150

130

CY Exp. to U.S.

70

50

70

50

70

45

Oilseed, Rapeseed

Oilseed, Rapeseed

USDA

Official

Estimate

New

USDA

Official

Estimate

New

USDA

Official

Estimate

New

Market Year Begin

10/2015

10/2016

10/2017

Area Planted

0

7,3

0

7

0

6,8

Area Harvested

7,534

7,3

7

7

6,8

6,8

Beginning Stocks

1,499

1,499

1,34

1,109

1,24

1,009

Production

14,931

14,3

13,5

13,5

13,1

13,1

MY Imports

4,011

4,011

3,6

4

4,3

4,3

MY Imp. from U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

MY Imp. from EU

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Supply

20,441

19,81

18,44

18,609

18,64

18,409

MY Exports

1

1

0

0

0

0

MY Exp. to EU

0

0

0

0

0

0

Crush

18,5

18,1

16,6

17

17

17,1

Food Use Dom. Cons.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Feed Waste Dom. Cons.

600

600

600

600

600

600

Total Dom. Cons.

19,1

18,7

17,2

17,6

17,6

17,7

Ending Stocks

1,34

1,109

1,24

1,009

1,04

709

Total Distribution

20,441

19,81

18,44

18,609

18,64

18,409

CY Imports

4,2

3,565

3,6

4

4,4

4,4

CY Imp. from U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

CY Exports

0

1

0

0

0

0

CY Exp. to U.S.

0

1

0

0

0

0

Oilseed, Peanut

Oilseed, Peanut

USDA

Official

Estimate

New

USDA

Official

Estimate

New

USDA

Official

Estimate

New

Market Year Begin

10/2015

10/2016

10/2017

Area Planted

4,6

4,6

4,7

4,75

4,85

4,85

Area Harvested

4,616

4,6

4,75

4,75

4,85

4,85

Beginning Stocks

0

0

0

0

0

0

Production

16,44

16,44

17

17

17,4

17,4

MY Imports

541

541

570

500

580

500

MY Imp. from U.S.

0

292

0

100

0

100

MY Imp. from EU

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Supply

16,981

16,981

17,57

17,5

17,98

17,9

MY Exports

484

484

550

500

580

580

MY Exp. to EU

50

50

50

50

50

50

Crush

8,7

8,85

9,15

9,1

9,35

9,3

Food Use Dom. Cons.

6,797

6,647

6,87

6,85

7,05

6,92

Feed Waste Dom. Cons.

1

1

1

1,05

1

1,1

Total Dom. Cons.

16,497

16,497

17,02

17

17,4

17,32

Ending Stocks

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Distribution

16,981

16,981

17,57

17,5

17,98

17,9

CY Imports

523

500

580

500

580

520

CY Imp. from U.S.

0

285

0

100

0

100

CY Exports

512

500

530

520

550

550

CY Exp. to U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Oil, soybean

Oil, soybean

10/2015

10/2017

10/2016

Estimate

New

USDA

Official

Estimate

New

USDA

Official

Estimate

New

USDA

Official

Crush

81,3

81

86,5

86,5

91,5

90

Extr. Rate, 999.9999

0.179

0.179

0.179

0.179

0.1792

0.179

Beginning Stocks

778

778

537

533

548

823

Production

14,569

14,515

15,501

15,5

16,397

16,11

MY Imports

586

586

620

550

550

500

MY Imp. from U.S.

100

20

100

190

100

100

MY Imp. from EU

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Supply

15,933

15,879

16,658

16,583

17,495

17,433

MY Exports

96

96

110

110

100

150

MY Exp. to EU

0

0

0

0

0

0

Industrial Dom. Cons.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Food Use Dom. Cons.

15,3

15,25

16

15,65

16,85

16,1

Feed Waste Dom. Cons.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Dom. Cons.

15,3

15,25

16

15,65

16,85

16,1

Ending Stocks

537

533

548

823

545

1,183

Total Distribution

15,933

15,879

16,658

16,583

17,495

17,433

CY Imports

700

560

600

500

500

500

CY Imp. from U.S.

100

110

100

180

100

100

CY Exports

110

100

110

100

110

100

CY Exp. to U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0


Palm

Palm

10/2015

10/2017

10/2016

Estimate

New

USDA

Official

Estimate

New

USDA

Official

Estimate

New

USDA

Official

Area Planted

0

0

0

0

0

0

Area Harvested

0

0

0

0

0

0

Trees

0

0

0

0

0

0

Beginning Stocks

305

305

159

189

209

187

Production

0

0

0

0

0

0

MY Imports

4,689

4,689

5

4,9

4,95

5

MY Imp. from U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

MY Imp. from EU

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Supply

4,994

4,994

5,159

5,089

5,159

5,187

MY Exports

5

5

0

2

0

0

MY Exp. to EU

0

0

0

0

0

0

Industrial Dom. Cons.

2,05

2,05

2,1

2,1

2,1

2,15

Food Use Dom. Cons.

2,78

2,75

2,85

2,8

2,85

2,8

Feed Waste Dom. Cons.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Dom. Cons.

4,83

4,8

4,95

4,9

4,95

4,95

Ending Stocks

159

189

209

187

209

237

Total Distribution

4,994

4,994

5,159

5,089

5,159

5,187

CY Imports

4,479

4,479

5

5

4,9

5

CY Imp. from U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

CY Exports

7

7

0

2

0

3

CY Exp. to U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Oilseed, Cottonseed

Oilseed, Cottonseed

USDA

Official

Estimate

New

USDA

Official

Estimate

New

USDA

Official

Estimate

New

Market Year Begin

10/2015

10/2016

10/2017

Area Planted (Cotton)

3,7

3,2

3,1

3

3

3,15

Area Harvested (Cotton)

3,05

3,2

2,85

3

3,05

3,15

Seed to Lint Ratio

0

0

0

0

0

0

Beginning Stocks

0

0

0

0

0

0

Production

8,6

9,58

8,8

8,9

9,4

9,5

MY Imports

75

75

120

75

150

80

MY Imp. from U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

MY Imp. from EU

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Supply

8,675

9,655

8,92

8,975

9,55

9,58

MY Exports

0

0

0

0

0

0

MY Exp. to EU

0

0

0

0

0

0

Crush

7,5

8,355

7,6

7,625

8,15

8,23

Food Use Dom. Cons.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Feed Waste Dom. Cons.

1,175

1,3

1,32

1,35

1,4

1,35

Total Dom. Cons.

8,675

9,655

8,92

8,975

9,55

9,58

Ending Stocks

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Distribution

8,675

9,655

8,92

8,975

9,55

9,58

CY Imports

35

76

100

78

150

80

CY Imp. from U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

CY Exports

0

0

0

0

0

0

CY Exp. to U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Meal, Soybean (1000 tons)

Meal, Soybean (1000 tons)

10/2015

10/2017

10/2016

Estimate

New

USDA

Official

Estimate

New

USDA

Official

Estimate

New

USDA

Official

Crush

81,3

81

86,5

86,5

91,5

90

Extr. Rate, 999.9999

0.792

0.792

0.792

0.792

0.792

0.792

Beginning Stocks

0

0

0

0

0

0

Production

64,39

64,152

68,508

68,508

72,468

71,28

MY Imports

24

22

45

20

30

21

MY Imp. from U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

MY Imp. from EU

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Supply

64,414

64,174

68,553

68,528

72,498

71,301

MY Exports

1,909

1,889

1,55

1,5

1,5

1,8

MY Exp. to EU

30

190

30

180

30

180

Industrial Dom. Cons.

1

1

1,05

1,05

1,1

1,1

Food Use Dom. Cons.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Feed Waste Dom. Cons.

61,505

61,285

65,953

65,978

69,898

68,401

Total Dom. Cons.

62,505

62,285

67,003

67,028

70,998

69,501

Ending Stocks

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Distribution

64,414

64,174

68,553

68,528

72,498

71,301

CY Imports

30

18

30

21

30

20

CY Imp. from U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

CY Exports

1,85

1,876

1,55

1,6

1,5

1,8

CY Exp. to U.S.

20

80

0

50

0

50

Rapeseed Meal

Rapeseed Meal

Estimate

New

USDA

Official

Estimate

New

USDA

Official

Estimate

New

USDA

Official

10/2015

10/2017

10/2016

Crush

18,5

18,1

16,6

17

17

17,1

Extr. Rate, 999.9999

0.595

0.595

0.595

0.595

0.595

0.595

Beginning Stocks

0

0

0

0

0

0

Production

11,009

10,77

9,879

10,115

10,117

10,17

MY Imports

359

359

500

600

530

500

MY Imp. from U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

MY Imp. from EU

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Supply

11,368

11,129

10,379

10,715

10,647

10,67

MY Exports

114

114

30

50

50

60

MY Exp. to EU

0

4

0

0

0

0

Industrial Dom. Cons.

450

450

450

450

450

450

Food Use Dom. Cons.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Feed Waste Dom. Cons.

10,804

10,565

9,899

10,215

10,147

10,16

Total Dom. Cons.

11,254

11,015

10,349

10,665

10,597

10,61

Ending Stocks

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Distribution

11,368

11,129

10,379

10,715

10,647

10,67

CY Imports

504

504

450

500

450

500

CY Imp. from U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

CY Exports

107

107

50

50

60

55

CY Exp. to U.S.

0

4

0

0

0

0











Rapeseed Oil

Rapeseed Oil

10/2015

10/2017

10/2016

Estimate

New

USDA

Official

Estimate

New

USDA

Official

Estimate

New

USDA

Official

Crush

18,5

18,1

16,6

17

17

17,1

Extr. Rate, 999.9999

0.3923

0.39

0.3923

0.3923

0.3923

0.3923

Beginning Stocks

4,164

4,164

3,837

4,178

2,739

3,292

Production

7,258

7,059

6,512

6,669

6,669

6,708

MY Imports

768

768

700

700

750

680

MY Imp. from U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

MY Imp. from EU

0

40

0

50

0

50

Total Supply

12,19

11,991

11,049

11,547

10,158

10,68

MY Exports

3

3

10

5

5

5

MY Exp. to EU

0

0

0

0

0

0

Industrial Dom. Cons.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Food Use Dom. Cons.

8,35

7,81

8,3

8,25

8,25

8,2

Feed Waste Dom. Cons.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Dom. Cons.

8,35

7,81

8,3

8,25

8,25

8,2

Ending Stocks

3,837

4,178

2,739

3,292

1,903

2,475

Total Distribution

12,19

11,991

11,049

11,547

10,158

10,68

CY Imports

700

700

720

700

720

700

CY Imp. from U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

CY Exports

5

5

5

5

5

4

CY Exp. to U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0


Oil, Peanut

Oil, Peanut (1000 tons)

10/2015

10/2017

10/2016

Estimate

New

USDA

Official

Estimate

New

USDA

Official

Estimate

New

USDA

Official

Crush

8,7

8,85

9,15

9,1

9,35

9,3

Extr. Rate, 999.9999

0.3200

0.3200

0.3200

0.3200

0.3200

0.3200

Beginning Stocks

0

0

0

0

0

0

Production

2,784

2,832

2,928

2,912

2,992

2,976

MY Imports

113

113

130

100

130

100

MY Imp. from U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

MY Imp. from EU

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Supply

2,897

2,945

3,058

3,012

3,122

3,076

MY Exports

10

10

6

6

5

9

MY Exp. to EU

0

0

0

0

0

0

Industrial Dom. Cons.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Food Use Dom. Cons.

2,887

2,935

3,052

3,006

3,117

3,067

Feed Waste Dom. Cons.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Dom. Cons.

2,887

2,935

3,052

3,006

3,117

3,067

Ending Stocks

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Distribution

2,897

2,945

3,058

3,012

3,122

3,076

CY Imports

120

107

130

110

130

110

CY Imp. from U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

CY Exports

7

9

6

8

5

9

CY Exp. to U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Sunflower Seed Oil

Sunflower Seed Oil

10/2015

10/2017

10/2016

Estimate

New

USDA

Official

Estimate

New

USDA

Official

Estimate

New

USDA

Official

Crush

1,4

1,4

1,6

1,569

1,65

1,65

Extr. Rate, 999.9999

0.3586

0.3586

0.3588

0.3582

0.3588

0.3582

Beginning Stocks

0

0

0

0

0

0

Production

502

502

574

562

592

591

MY Imports

878

878

930

880

970

900

MY Imp. from U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

MY Imp. from EU

0

1

0

1

0

0

Total Supply

1,38

1,38

1,504

1,442

1,562

1,491

MY Exports

1

0

0

2

0

0

MY Exp. to EU

0

0

0

0

0

0

Industrial Dom. Cons.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Food Use Dom. Cons.

1,379

1,38

1,504

1,44

1,562

1,491

Feed Waste Dom. Cons.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Dom. Cons.

1,379

1,38

1,504

1,44

1,562

1,491

Ending Stocks

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Distribution

1,38

1,38

1,504

1,442

1,562

1,491

CY Imports

850

957

920

880

960

900

CY Imp. from U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

CY Exports

0

1

0

2

0

0

CY Exp. to U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0