Highlights

The EU28 grain harvest is now well under way in most Member States. Concerns over dry weather which have pervaded through the growing season, especially in the West, are now turning to concerns over wet harvest conditions in some Member States, notably in Germany. Indeed, weather has once again proved the biggest challenge for the EU28 grains crop. Overall, prospects for both yield and quality are mixed, with the exception being Spain where the crop is significantly reduced. The total MY2017/18 EU28 grain crop is subsequently revised down to 300 MMT, still 2.5 MMT larger than MY2016/17 but over 27.5 MMT lower than the record set in MY2014/15.

General Information

Executive Summary

After a dry November and December and a cold snap in January, milder and wetter weather across much of the EU28 in February and March was welcomed and the outlook for the grains crop was generally good with winterkill limited. However, the dry weather returned in April and has remained a feature across much of the EU28 this growing season. Indeed, heatwaves were reported in late May and through June in some Member States with average temperatures significantly above the norm. While sporadic rains appeased most concerns in the likes of the UK and much of France, there was no such respite for Spain. This has led to a significant downward revision to the outlook for its grain crop.Spain experienced dry weather conditions throughout the winter grains crop cycle and warmer than average spring temperatures. Together, these drove down yield expectations. These conditions have continued in recent weeks, further reducing yields and even leading to reports of producers leaving some fields unharvested. Necessarily, the challenging weather across the EU28 means yield and quality is being mixed, recent rains at harvest creating further challenges for producers, notably in Germany.

The total area planted to grain crops in the EU28 in MY2017/18 is forecast down 500,000 hectares year-on-year, a reduced area planted to wheat only partially offset by a slight increase in plantings of oats, rye and mixed grains. The area planted to both corn and barley is now forecast unchanged year-on-year. After the poor average wheat yield in MY2016/17, and despite variations across Member States, a partial recovery is forecast in MY2017/18. This means a year-on-year increase in forecast EU28 wheat production to 148.5 MMT, albeit 1.5 MMT below the previous forecast. EU28 barley production is now forecast to reach 58.7 MMT, down 400,000 MT on the previous forecast. Similarly, the EU28 rye production forecast is reduced 300,000 MT to 7.6 MMT. The only other reduction of significance is for corn, EU28 production now forecast to reach 61 MMT, down 600,000 MT on the previous forecast and also 500,000 MT down year-on-year. Overall, total EU28 grain production is now forecast at just over 300 MMT but, as always, much still depends on the weather over the coming weeks, not just for crop development but also for harvest volume.

The total supply of grains in the EU28 in MY2017/18 is forecast at 348.7 MMT, little changed year-on-year but over 1.5 MMT below the previous forecast, the reduced production forecast only partially offset by an increase in forecast imports. Total EU28 grains consumption is currently forecast at nearly 286.2 MMT in MY2017/18. Within this total, Food, Seed & Industrial (FSI) use of grains is now forecast unchanged year-on-year. An increase in corn FSI use – mainly in the industrial sector - is forecast to offset a decline in forecast FSI wheat use. Total feed use in MY2017/18 is now forecast to fall over 1.5 MMT year-on-year due to reduced availability of both wheat and barley. This decline is tempered by an increase in the MY2017/18 corn import forecast which is raised to 15.5 MMT, Spain necessarily being the largest recipient. EU wheat exports in MY2016/17 are left unchanged on the previous forecast, at 27 MMT. A 2 MMT year-on-year increase is currently forecast for MY2017/18. The net result is a forecast 2 MMT year-on-year reduction in total grain ending stocks.

Country Specific

As has been mentioned previously, Spain experienced dry weather conditions throughout the winter grains crop cycle and warmer than average spring temperatures. Together, these drove down yield expectations. These conditions have continued in recent weeks, further reducing yields leading to reports of producers leaving some fields left unharvested. Dry conditions have taken their toll in Portugal’s winter grains production. Dry conditions were also cause for concern in France until recently but these are now subsiding and the crop appears to have weathered reasonably well.

In Germany, the grains crop is overwintered very well but a lack of spring rain, particularly in the south and east has reduced yield and quality, notably for wheat. The barley harvest started in the south and west of the country at the end of June and – with the exception of the very North and North East - is now complete. Harvest was interrupted by excessive rains in July. Yields show a large variation but the majority is an average level. The wheat harvest is underway in the South and West. The rains are a mixed blessing and may benefit the corn crop, albeit on reduced area, both year-on-year and as compared to the forecast three months ago.

In Bulgaria, weather conditions have been favorable although not as ideal as in the previous season with generally lower amounts of rainfall throughout the entire season. There are no major weather concerns, the main impact being a slight delay in plant development meaning a later harvest. Indeed, the north of the country may see average wheat yields exceed last year’s record. In the South, the dry weather means yields will likely be around the average. Early indications are for a good quality Bulgarian wheat crop. Barley quality is also reported to be good, with improved yield albeit on a reduced area, year-on-year. For corn, after two difficult, dry years, producers reduced their planted area, even more so than forecast three months ago, substituting corn area for sunflowers and other protein crops. Despite that, growing conditions so far are very good and yield expectations are positive, slightly above average.

In contrast with much of the EU28, Romania has abundant spring rain, alleviating the moisture deficit experienced by winter crops. Even a late cold spell in April did not have a large impact and crops have developed well. For wheat, this weather has seen harvest start a little later than normal with heavy rains and summer storms also causing further delays but the outlook for yield remains good with quality a little below last year. For barley, the crop is developed very well, and the prospects are good. The recent rains have also been welcomed by corn growers and the production estimate is revised up on three months ago.

Wheat

Wheat

2015/2016

2016/2017

2017/2018

Market Begin Year

Jul 2015

Jul 2016

Jul 2017

European Union

USDA Official

New Post

USDA Official

New Post

USDA Official

New Post

Area Harvested

26827

26820

27196

27250

26620

26550

Beginning Stocks

12697

12697

15557

15639

10828

10439

Production

160480

160450

145471

145500

150000

148500

MY Imports

6916

6916

5300

5300

6500

6500

TY Imports

6916

6916

5300

5300

6500

6500

TY Imp. from U.S.

895

895

0

0

0

0

Total Supply

180093

180063

166328

166439

167328

165439

MY Exports

34686

34724

27000

27000

30000

29000

TY Exports

34686

34724

27000

27000

30000

29000

Feed and Residual

59000

59000

56500

57000

55500

55000

FSI Consumption

70850

70700

72000

72000

71750

71500

Total Consumption

129850

129700

128500

129000

127250

126500

Ending Stocks

15557

15639

10828

10439

10078

9939

Total Distribution

180093

180063

166328

166439

167328

165439

Yield

5.982

5.9825

5.349

5.3394

5.6349

5.5932

Corn

Market Begin Year

Oct 2015

Oct 2016

Oct 2017

European Union

USDA Official

New Post

USDA Official

New Post

USDA Official

New Post

Area Harvested

9248

9250

8492

8600

8760

8600

Beginning Stocks

9626

9626

6676

7272

5987

7672

Production

58731

58750

60711

61500

61600

61000

MY Imports

13768

13795

13100

13000

15000

15500

TY Imports

13768

13795

13100

13000

15000

15500

TY Imp. from U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Supply

82125

82171

80487

81772

82587

84172

MY Exports

1949

1949

2000

2250

2300

2500

TY Exports

1949

1949

2000

2250

2300

2500

Feed and Residual

55500

55000

53900

53000

56000

56000

FSI Consumption

18000

17950

18600

18850

18700

19350

Total Consumption

73500

72950

72500

71850

74700

75350

Ending Stocks

6676

7272

5987

7672

5587

6322

Total Distribution

82125

82171

80487

81772

82587

84172

Yield

6.3507
6.3514

7.1492

7.1512

7.032

7.093


Barley

Barley

2015/2016

2016/2017

2017/2018

Market Begin Year

Jul 2015

Jul 2016

Jul 2017

European Union

USDA Official

New Post

USDA Official

New Post

USDA Official

New Post

Area Harvested

12248

12225

12373

12350

12400

12350

Beginning Stocks

5834

5834

6060

6021

5860

5696

Production

62095

62050

60000

59800

59100

58700

MY Imports

292

292

400

400

400

400

TY Imports

315

315

450

450

350

350

TY Imp. from U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Supply

68221

68176

66460

66221

65360

64796

MY Exports

10786

10830

5200

5200

7000

7000

TY Exports

8603

8603

5400

5400

7000

7000

Feed and Residual

36500

36500

40500

40500

38700

37500

FSI Consumption

14875

14825

14900

14825

14900

14850

Total Consumption

51375

51325

55400

55325

53600

52350

Ending Stocks

6060

6021

5860

5696

4760

5446

Total Distribution

68221

68176

66460

66221

65360

64796

Yield

5.0698

5.0757

4.8493

4.8421

4.7661

4.753

Rye

Rye

2015/2016

2016/2017

2017/2018

Market Begin Year

Jul 2015


Jul 2016


Jul 2017


European Union

USDA Official

New Post

USDA Official

New Post

USDA Official

New Post

Area Harvested

1962

1960

1943

1940

2000

2000

Beginning Stocks

1386

1386

1092

1126

722

786

Production

7841

7800

7505

7450

7900

7600

MY Imports

51

50

25

10

50

50

TY Imports

50

50

50

50

50

50

TY Imp. from U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Supply

9278

9236

8622

8586

8672

8436

MY Exports

161

160

100

75

100

100

TY Exports

160

160

125

125

100

100

Feed and Residual

4050

4100

4000

3900

4000

3800

FSI Consumption

3975

3850

3800

3825

3800

3750

Total Consumption

8025

7950

7800

7725

7800

7550

Ending Stocks

1092

1126

722

786

772

786

Total Distribution

9278

9236

8622

8586

8672

8436

Yield

3.9964

3.9796

3.8626

3.8402

3.95

3.8

Oats

Oats

2015/2016

2016/2017

2017/2018

Market Begin Year

Jul 2015


Jul 2016


Jul 2017


European Union

USDA Official

New Post

USDA Official

New Post

USDA Official

New Post

Area Harvested

2502

2500

2563

2575

2600

2600

Beginning Stocks

770

770

690

692

614

672

Production

7524

7525

8069

8100

8000

8075

MY Imports

9

9

5

5

5

5

TY Imports

9

9

5

5

5

5

TY Imp. from U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Supply

8303

8304

8764

8797

8619

8752

MY Exports

213

212

150

175

200

175

TY Exports

220

220

200

200

200

175

Feed and Residual

5700

5700

6300

6250

6200

6150

FSI Consumption

1700

1700

1700

1700

1700

1700

Total Consumption

7400

7400

8000

7950

7900

7850

Ending Stocks

690

692

614

672

519

727

Total Distribution

8303

8304

8764

8797

8619

8752

Yield

3.0072

3.01

3.1483

3.1456

3.0769

3.1058

Sorghum

Sorghum

2015/2016

2016/2017

2017/2018

Market Begin Year

Jul 2015

Jul 2016

Jul 2017

European Union

USDA Official

New Post

USDA Official

New Post

USDA Official

New Post

Area Harvested

128

145

117

130

125

135

Beginning Stocks

27

27

10

29

33

24

Production

678

730

623

675

700

700

MY Imports

117

118

175

125

150

300

TY Imports

119

119

175

125

150

300

TY Imp. from U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Supply

822

875

808

829

883

1024

MY Exports

2

2

5

2

5

2

TY Exports

2

2

5

2

5

2

Feed and Residual

790

820

750

780

800

975

FSI Consumption

20

24

20

23

20

23

Total Consumption

810

844

770

803

820

998

Ending Stocks

10

29

33

24

58

24

Total Distribution

822

875

808

829

883

1024

Yield

5.2969

5.0345

5.3248

5.1923

5.6

5.1852

Mixed Grains

Mixed Grain

2015/2016

2016/2017

2017/2018

Market Begin Year

Jul 2015


Jul 2016


Jul 2017


European Union

USDA Official

New Post

USDA Official

New Post

USDA Official

New Post

Area Harvested

4122

4110

3963

3950

4000

3975

Beginning Stocks

1242

1242

875

842

427

542

Production

15783

15800

15052

15000

15400

15500

MY Imports

0

0

0

0

0

0

TY Imports

0

0

0

0

0

0

TY Imp. from U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Supply

17025

17042

15927

15842

15827

16042

MY Exports

0

0

0

0

0

0

TY Exports

0

0

0

0

0

0

Feed and Residual

14550

14550

14000

13750

14000

14000

FSI Consumption

1600

1650

1500

1550

1500

1550

Total Consumption

16150

16200

15500

15300

15500

15550

Ending Stocks

875

842

427

542

327

492

Total Distribution

17025

17042

15927

15842

15827

16042

Yield

3.829

3.8443

3.7981

3.7975

3.85

3.8994

Rice, Milled

Rice

2015/2016

2016/2017

2017/2018

Market Begin Year

Sep 2015


Sep2016


Sep 2017


European Union

USDA Official

New Post

USDA Official

New Post

USDA Official

New Post

Area Harvested

437

437

441

440

442

442

Beginning Stocks

1151

1151

1178

1181

1168

1170

Milled Production

2045

2048

2070

2069

2082

2083

Rough Production

2958

2992

2983

3020

3000

3037

Milling Rate (.9999)

6914

6845

6940

6851

6940

6859

MY Imports

1804

1804

1850

1850

1900

1900

TY Imports

1816

1816

1850

1850

1900

1900

TY Imp. from U.S.

57

49

0

0

0

0

Total Supply

5000

5003

5098

5100

5150

5153

MY Exports

272

272

280

280

280

280

TY Exports

270

270

280

280

280

280

Consumption and Residual

3550

3550

3650

3650

3750

3750

Ending Stocks

1178

1181

1168

1170

1120

1123

Total Distribution

5000

5003

5098

5100

5150

5153

Yield (Rough)

6.7689

6.8467

6.7642

6.8636

6.7873

6.871