Wheat. World Markets and Trade. August 2017 – USDA Aug. 10, 2017
For 2017/18, global production is up this month as larger crops are expected in the Black Sea countries—Russia, Ukraine, and Kazakhstan. Global trade is forecast up slightly this month mainly on larger imports for Indonesia and Nigeria. Exports are raised for the Black Sea countries which more than offset reductions for Canada and the EU. U.S. imports are projected higher based on tightening supplies of high-protein wheat. The season-average farm price is unchanged at $4.80 per bushel.
For 2016/17, global trade is up, based on higher imports for China, Nigeria, and Vietnam and despite reductions for Bangladesh and South Africa. Exports for the United States and Canada are revised up this month. U.S. imports are raised marginally this month.
Wheat prices for July were mainly lower. Hard Red Winter (HRW) plummeted $29/ton to $217, while Soft Red Winter (SRW) declined $17/ton to $195. Hard Red Spring (HRS) fell $21/ton to $322. Wheat prices remain elevated due to dry conditions in the Northern Plains, but have settled lower from the peaks seen in early July on the anticipated harvest. On the other hand, Soft White Winter (SWW) rose $8/ton to $212 with strong export sales.
Canadian and U.S. Wheat Exports Down on Tightening Supplies
Year-over-year, combined Canadian and U.S. wheat exports are projected lower based on smaller crops in both countries. However, massive carryin stocks partially offset the lower production. Drought conditions have affected spring wheat production, leading to tight supplies of high-protein wheat. U.S. exports are forecast down year-over-year, while Canada’s exports are forecast nearly unchanged amid robust global demand for high-protein wheat. However, a larger amount of Canadian supplies are likely to go to the United States, leaving less for other importers.
The limited availability of Canadian and U.S. wheat is expected to have a major impact on the global market. The EU and Russia are both forecast to have larger crops and are expected to pick up exports at the expense of the United States and Canada. However, the vast majority of the EU and Russian crops will not be of adequate protein to compensate for the reduced availability of U.S. and Canadian spring wheat. Protein premiums have soared in recent months based on tightening supplies of high-protein spring wheat.
TRADE CHANGES IN 2017/18
- Bangladesh is lowered 300,000 tons to 6.5 million based on slower expected consumption growth in light of lower 2016/17 consumption.
- Brazil is up 200,000 tons to 7.2 million on a smaller crop.
- Indonesia is raised 500,000 tons to 10.0 million with larger expected feed demand.
- Nigeria is up 400,000 tons to 5.0 million based on higher expected demand for wheat-based products.
- United States is up 300,000 tons to 4.1 million based on tightening supplies of highprotein spring wheat.
- Canada is down 1.5 million tons to 20.5 million based on lower exportable supplies.
- European Union is down 500,000 tons to 29.5 million based on stronger competition from Russia and Ukraine.
- Kazakhstan is up 500,000 tons to 7.5 million on greater exportable supplies and strong international demand for high-protein wheat.
- Russia is up 1.0 million tons to a record 31.5 million on record production.
- Ukraine is up 2.0 million tons to 16.0 million based on a much larger crop.
TRADE CHANGES IN 2016/17
Selected Importers- based on trade data
- Algeria is up 200,000 tons to 8.2 million.
- Bangladesh is down 500,000 tons to 5.5 million.
- China is raised 400,000 tons to 4.8 million.
- Nigeria is up 325,000 tons to 4.9 million.
- South Africa is down 280,000 tons to 1.2 million.
- United States is up 47,000 tons to 3.3 million.
- Vietnam is raised 200,000 tons to 5.2 million.
Selected Exporters- based on trade data
- Canada is up 278,000 tons to 20.3 million.
- United States is raised 188,000 tons to 29.5 million.