Highlights

The Ministry of Agriculture foresees total grain production totaling 3.5 MMT, of which Post estimates will be split 2.5 MMT for wheat and 1.0 MMT for barley and causing Post to increase its forecast for Algerian wheat imports. The new import license regime has also now come into force for barley, other feed grains, and feed ingredients, effectively setting import quotas for calendar year 2017.

Executive Summary

Following a sustained drought through the grain-fill period, Post revises down its initial MY2017/18 forecast in April for wheat to 2.5 MMT (consistent with the USDA forecast), while maintaining its barley production forecast from April at 1.0 MMT (lower than the official USDA forecast) in an effort to reflect total grain production estimates from the Ministry of Agriculture. In response, Post amends its forecast wheat imports higher to 8.2 MMT while also holding its earlier import forecast for barley at 600,000 MT. Post maintains its April forecasts for wheat and barley consumption. Since April, the new import licensing regime, which impacts barley, other feed grains, and feed ingredients, has come into force and reportedly disrupted barley shipments in June. Import licenses have been issued on a calendar-year basis with no foresight of when or if additional licenses may be issued.

Post has made adjustments to its estimates for MY2016/17 and MY2015/16 to reflect official trade data through April 2017. Of particular note, Algeria has recorded 74,000 MT of wheat imports from the United States in MY2016/17, compared to the total import estimate of 8.0 MMT.

Crop Update

The Ministry of Agriculture’s committee for monitoring and assessment of the cereal crop had forecast total MY2017/18 grain production (durum wheat, barley, common wheat, and oats) at 3.5 million MT, higher than the 2016 harvest (3.3 million MT) but lower than the 2015 harvest (4.0 million MT). During the period (2009-20016), the grain production in Algeria, averaged (4.4 MMT) with a record crop in 2009 that reached (6.12 MMT). As a result, the committee considers the current grain crop far below average, particularly considering the expansion of planted area, which grew from 3.3 million hectares for the MY2016/17 crop to 3.5 million hectares for MY2017/18. The committee attributes poor yields to the lack of rain that plagued many grain-producing regions (Tiaret, Sidi Bel-Abbès, Aïn Témouchent in the west and, Tébessa in the East).


Trade Update

Wheat

Wheat imports through April 2017 are -0.5% behind the 2015/16 pace with two months remaining.

Algeria Imports of Wheat and Wheat Products (MT)

Marketing Year (Jul-Jun)

Year To Date

HS

Description

2013/14

2014/15

2015/16

07/15 -

07/16 -

% Changes

PSD Wheat

Total Wheat Equivalent

6,922,940

8,026,371

8,162,775

6,959,375

6,924,309

-0.5

1001

Wheat Meslin

6,913,668

8,017,430

8,159,161

6,955,974

6,921,912

-0.49

1101

Wheat or Meslin Flour

Pasta, Uncooked Not Stuffed Etc.

2

45

2

2

0

-86.59

190219

Nesoi Pasta, Prepared

5,928

4,815

609

544

1,304

139.81

190230

Nesoi

808

1,653

2,031

1,94

440

-77.34

190240

Couscous

40

23

0

0

8

Algeria Exports of Wheat and Wheat Products (MT)

HS

Description

Marketing Year ( Jul-Jun)

Year To Date

2013\14

2014\15

2015\16

07\15-04\16

07\16-04\17

% Change

PSDWheat

Total WheatEquivalent

22,159

15,09

14,281

11,163

7,315

-34.47

1001

Wheat And Meslin

17

21

0

0

0

1101

Wheat or MeslinFlour

288

1,286

2,149

966

1,248

29.22

190219

Pasta, Uncooked, NotStuffed Etc., Nesoi

439

1,644

843

833

701

-15.89

190230

Pasta, Prepared Nesoi

13,789

6,236

3,884

3,642

1,062

-70.85

190240

Couscous

1,67

1,849

3,563

2,719

2,336

-14.09

Barley

Barley imports through April 2017 are -6.5% behind the 2015/16 pace with two months remaining. Industry reports shipments in June were disrupted in the wake of the new import license regime.

Policy Update

In the beginning of 2017, the Ministry of Commerce announced import licensing would be extended to all “non-essential” products, but the effective starting date for the application of the new measures remained unknown until April 2017 when the Ministry of Commerce published the first list of products.

The following agricultural products: wood, fresh and chilled beef, cheese, lemon, apples, bananas, garlic, tomato paste, barley, corn, and soybean meal, as well as vitamin mineral concentrate are now subject to import licensing. The Ministry of Commerce released on June 13, 2017, the feed grain quotas for CY2017, granted by an inter-ministerial commission in charge of import licensing:

• Barley: 462,076 MT may be imported in total by 42 potential buyers, mainly feed manufacturers, with priority given to the Government Feed Grain Agency (ONAB) and the Algerian Office of Cereals (OAIC)

• Corn: import licenses, totaling 2,128,779 MT, will be distributed among 60 potential buyers, including ONAB

• Soybean meal: 495,514 MT.

• Mineral vitamin concentrate: 9,041 MT may be imported through 28 licenses granted. It is not known if additional import licenses for CY2017 will be issued.

Wheat

Wheat

2015/2016

2016/2017

2017/2018

Market Begin

Jul 2015

Jul 2016

Jul 2017

Algeria

USDA

New

USDA

New

USDA

New

Official

Post

Official

Post

Official

Post

Area Harvested

2100

2100

1300

1300

2100

2000

Beginning Stocks

3768

3768

4357

4367

4092

4102

Production

2700

2700

2000

2000

2500

2500

MY Imports

8153

8163

8000

8000

8000

8200

TY Imports

8153

8163

8000

8000

8000

8200

TY Imp. from US

69

69

0

74

0

75

Total Supply

14621

14631

14357

14357

14592

14802

MY Exports

14

14

15

15

15

15

TY Exports

14

14

15

15

15

15

Feed and Residual

50

50

50

50

50

50

FSI Consumption

10200

10200

10200

10200

10300

10200

Total Consumption

10250

10250

10250

10250

10350

10250

Ending Stocks

4357

4367

4092

4102

4227

6.12

Total distribution

14621

14631

14357

14367

14592

14802

Yield

1.28571.2857

1.5385

1.53851.19051.25

Barley

Barley

2015/2016

2016/2017

2017/2018

Market Begin Year

Jul 2015

Jul 2016

Jul 2017

Algeria

USDA

New

USDA

New

USDA

New

Official

Post

Official

Post

Official

Post

Area Harvested

1000

1000

900

900

950

950

Beginning Stocks

1304

1304

1290

1314

1140

914

Production

1300

1300

1000

1000

1200

1000

MY Imports

836

860

900

650

600

600

TY Imports

864

864

900

650

600

600

TY Imp. from US

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Supply

3440

3664

3190

2964

2940

2514

MY Exports

0

0

0

0

0

0

TY Exports

0

0

0

0

0

0

Feed and Residual

1800

1800

1700

1700

1700

1600

FSI Consumpation

350

350

350

350

350

300

Total Consumption

2150

2150

2050

2050

2050

1900

Ending Stocks

1290

1314

1140

914

890

614

Total Disctribution

3440

3664

3190

2964

2940

2514

Yield

1.3

1.3

1.1111

1.1111

1.2632

1.0526