Highlights

This news incorporates various updates to Production, Supply and Distribution (PSD) data based on recent export numbers as well as domestic planting areas for sunflowers, soybeans, rapeseed and volumes of production for oils and meals.

Production

Farmers have already planted over 5.5 million hectares (ha) of sunflower seed and almost 1.9 million ha of soybeans as of June 7, 2017. The farmers planted 858 thousand ha of winter rapeseed.

These numbers were used by FAS Kyiv to adjust production volumes of these crops for marketing year (MY) 2017/18.MAPFU’s tells that areas under sunflower in 2017 are lower compared to 2016 despite higher imports of sunflower seeds in 2017. Post witnessed a similar trend in 2016 when planted area numbers were gradually revised upward as the year progressed. Under these circumstances, Post maintains estimated MY2017/18 production volumes for sunflower seed at the level of the previous MY based on seed import data, suggesting similar seed purchases by farmers this year. This number might be adjusted based on subsequent planting reports by the State Statistics Service of Ukraine which will be available later this year.

Suboptimal weather conditions in spring 2017 featuring sub-zero temperatures in May, as well as low levels of topsoil moisture, likely impacted plant development at the initial stage. Based on the abovementioned weather data, Post decreased yield estimates for all oilseeds compared to the two previous years. These numbers could be revised at a later date based on soil moisture levels changes as the crop continues to develop.

Post increased its rapeseed production estimate for MY2016/17 to 1.2 MMT compared to the State Statistical Service of Ukraine’s official number -- at 1.154 MMT. This is justified by currently available rapeseed and rapeseed oil export data suggesting higher volume of production in 2016

Consumption:

Reports by domestic poultry producers suggest that they are expanding use of sunflower meal in the diet of their poultry flocks. FAS Kyiv rebalanced feed consumption in favor of increasing sunflower meal while subsequently reducing usage of soybean meal.

Trade

Estimated oilseed export numbers for MY2016/17 have been revised based on reports of the State Fiscal Service of Ukraine (SFSU). Ukraine continues to boost export volumes, which was especially visible for sunflower oil and meal as well as soybeans and products of processing thereof. Economic stabilization has resulted in an increase of palm oil imports into Ukraine in 2016 as well.

Export forecasts for all oilseeds for MY2017/18 have been adjusted based on available data for crop production areas in 2017, as reported by MAPFU and Post’s own estimates.

It should be noted that for MY2016/17 Ukraine is gradually increasing its volume of sunflower seed exports despite the export tax for this commodity still in place. For September 2016 – March 2017 the majority of this volume went to the EU (predominantly France and The Netherlands).

Oilseed, Sunflowerseed

Oilseed, Sunflowerseed

2015/2016

2016/2017

2017/2018

Market Begin Year

Sep 2015

Sep 2016

Sep 2016

Ukraine

USDA

Official

New Post

USDA

Official

New Post

USDA

Official

New Post

Area Planted

0

5185

0

6016

0

5710

Area Harvested

5500

5481

6200

6191

6000

5710

Beginning Stocks

122

122

101

108

91

76

Production

11900

11857

13750

13756

13500

13700

MY Imports

22

22

20

22

20

20

MY Imp. from U.S.

5

7

5

7

5

7

MY Imp. from EU

0

5

0

6

0

5

Total Supply

12044

12001

13871

13886

13611

13796

MY Exports

83

83

220

200

250

150

MY Exp. to EU

20

51

50

150

50

120

Crush

11700

11650

13400

13450

13100

13400

Food Use Dom. Cons.

50

50

50

50

50

50

Feed Waste Dom.Cons.

110

110

110

110

110

110

Total Dom. Cons.

11860

11810

13560

13610

13260

13560

Ending Stocks

101

108

91

76

101

86

Total Distribution

12044

12001

13871

13886

13611

13796

CY Imports

24

24

15

22

15

20

CY Imp. from U.S.

4

7

4

7

4

7

CY Exports

197

197

180

200

240

150

CY Exp. to U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Yield

2.1636

2,163

2,217

2,221

2,25

2,3993

Oil, Sunflowerseed

Oil, Sunflowerseed

2015/2016

2016/2017

2017/2018

Market Begin Year

Sep 2015

Sep 2016

Sep 2016

Ukraine

USDA

New Post

USDA

New Post

USDA

Crush

11700

11650

13400

13450

13100

13400

Extr. Rate, 999.9999

0.43

0.43

0.43

0.43

0.43

0.43

Beginning Stocks

163

163

115

164

179

90

Production

5031

5010

5762

5784

5633

5762

MY Imports

1

1

2

2

2

2

MY Imp. from U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

MY Imp. from EU

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Supply

5195

5174

5879

5950

5814

5854

MY Exports

4500

4500

5100

5350

5000

5300

MY Exp. to EU

450

1368

450

1500

450

1590

Industrial Dom. Cons.

30

30

30

30

30

30

Food Use Dom. Cons.

550

480

570

480

610

480

Feed Waste Dom. Cons.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Dom. Cons.

580

510

600

510

640

510

Ending Stocks

115

164

179

90

174

44

Total Distribution

5195

5174

5879

5950

5814

5854

Meal, Sunflowerseed

Meal, Sunflowerseed
2015/20162016/20172017/2018
Market Begin Year
Sep 2015Sep 2016Sep 2016
UkraineUSDANew PostUSDANew PostUSDANew Post
OfficialOfficialOfficial
Crush117001165013400134501310013400
Extr. Rate, 999.99990.410.4140.410.4140.410.414
Beginning Stocks470470601737395676
Production479748235494556853715548
MY Imports110101
MY Imp. from U.S.000000
MY Imp. from EU000000
Total Supply526852946095630657666225
MY Exports381738174800490044004850
MY Exp. to EU220021182500260025002400
Industrial Dom. Cons.000000
Food Use Dom. Cons.000000
Feed Waste Dom. Cons.850740900730930740
Total Dom. Cons.850740900730930740
Ending Stocks601737395676436635
Total Distribution526852946095630657666225

Oilseed, Soybean

Oilseed, Soybean

2015/2016

2016/2017

2017/2018

Market Begin Year

Sep 2015

Sep 2016

Sep 2016

Ukraine

USDA

New Post

USDA

New Post

USDA

New Post

Area Planted

2140

2147

2300

1847

2300

1900

Area Harvested

2137

2124

1854

1854

2000

1850

Beginning Stocks

166

166

113

104

42

68

Production

3932

3919

4280

4280

4600

3700

MY Imports

5

5

0

5

0

6

MY Imp. from U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

MY Imp. from EU

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Supply

4103

4090

4393

4389

4642

3774

MY Exports

2369

2369

2900

2900

2800

1700

MY Exp. to EU

800

328

900

700

1000

400

Crush

950

945

950

950

1100

1300

Food Use Dom. Cons.

1

1

1

1

1

1

Feed Waste Dom.Сons.

670

671

500

470

630

700

Total Dom. Cons.

1621

1617

1451

1421

1731

2001

Ending Stocks

113

104

42

68

111

73

Total Distribution

4103

4090

4393

4389

4642

3774

CY Imports

5

5

0

5

0

6

CY Imp. from U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

CY Exports

2736

2736

2800

2900

2900

1700

CY Exp. to U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Yield

1.84

1.84

2.30

2.30

2.30

2

Oil, Soybean

Oil, Soybean2015/20162016/20172017/2018
Market Begin YearSep 2015Sep 2016Sep 2016
UkraineUSDANew PostUSDANew PostUSDANew Post
Crush95094595095011001300
Extr. Rate, 999.99990.18320.18310.18320.18320.18360.1831
Beginning Stocks151522282129
Production
174173174174202
238
MY Imports
000000
MY Imp. from U.S.
000000
MY Imp. from EU
000000
Total Supply
189188196202223267
MY Exports
152152160165190235
MY Exp. to EU
6561808080110
Industrial Dom. Cons.
000000
Food Use Dom. Cons.
158158158
Feed Waste Dom. Cons.
0
0
0
0
0
0
Total Dom. Cons.
158158158
Ending Stocks
222821291824
Total Distribution
189188196202223267

Meal, Soybean

Meal, Soybean
2015/20162016/20172017/2018
Market Begin Year
Sep 2015Sep 2016Sep 2016
UkraineUSDAUSDANew PostUSDANew Post
Crush95094595095011001300
Extr. Rate, 999.99990.79050.78940.79050.78420.79090.7838
Beginning Stocks858571756471
Production7517467517458701019
MY Imports222121
MY Imp. from U.S.100000
MY Imp. from EU010000
Total Supply8388338248219361091
MY Exports347338350340460650
MY Exp. to EU8040701007060
Industrial Dom. Cons.000000
Food Use Dom. Cons.000000
Feed Waste Dom. Cons.420420410410420400
Total Dom. Cons.420420410410420400
Ending Stocks717564715641
Total Distribution8388338248219361091

Oilseed, Rapeseed

Oilseed, Rapeseed

2015/2016

2016/2017

2017/2018

Market Begin Year

Jul 2015

Jul 2016

Jul 2016

Ukraine

USDA

USDA

New Post

USDA

New Post

Area Planted

684

682

640

457

850

858

Area Harvested

677

682

450

450

850

850

Beginning Stocks

18

18

1

2

5

3

Production

1744

1756

1200

1200

2100

1700

MY Imports

2

2

5

2

2

2

MY Imp. from U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

MY Imp. from EU

0

2

0

2

0

2

Total Supply

1764

1776

1206

1204

2107

1705

MY Exports

1437

1437

1000

1000

1350

1340

MY Exp. to EU

1200

1115

900

950

1200

938

Crush

325

325

200

200

740

350

Food Use Dom. Cons.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Feed Waste Dom. Cons.

1

12

1

1

1

4

Total Dom. Cons.

326

337

201

201

741

354

Ending Stocks

1

2

5

3

16

11

Total Distribution

1764

1776

1206

1204

2107

1705

CY Imports

2

6

2

2

2

2

CY Imp. from U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

CY Exports

994

994

800

1000

1300

1340

CY Exp. to U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Yield

2.5761

2.5748

2.6667

2.6667

2..4706

2

Oil, Rapeseed

Oil, Rapeseed2015/20162016/20172017/2018
Market Begin YearJul 2015Jul 2016Jul 2016
UkraineUSDAUSDANew PostUSDANew Post
Crush3250200200740350
Extr. Rate, 999.99990.400.40.40.40.4
Beginning Stocks30305357
Production1301308080296140
MY Imports111111
MY Imp. from U.S.000000
MY Imp. from EU010101
Total Supply1611618684302148
MY Exports1551567575285140
MY Exp. to EU95946070130120
Industrial Dom. Cons.111111
Food Use Dom. Cons.015151
Feed Waste Dom. Cons.000000
Total Dom. Cons.126262
Ending Stocks5357116
Total Distribution1611618684302148

Meal, Rapeseed

Meal, Rapeseed2015/20162016/20172017/2018
Market Begin YearJul 2015Jul 2016Jul 2016
UkraineUSDA
Official
New
Post
USDA
Official
New
Post
USDA
Official
New Post
Crush3250200200740350
Extr. Rate, 999.99990.581500.580.580.57970.5829
Beginning Stocks000000
Production189189116116429204
MY Imports000000
MY Imp. from U.S.000000
MY Imp. from EU000000
Total Supply189189116116429204
MY Exports18818810090415180
MY Exp. to EU1101598070180140
Industrial Dom. Cons.000000
Food Use Dom. Cons.000000
Feed Waste Dom. Cons.1116261424
Total Dom. Cons.1116261424
Ending Stocks000000
Total Distribution189189116116429204