Highlights

Turkish soybean area and production for MY 2017/18 are now estimated about 22,000 hectares and 85,000 MT, respectively. An increase in cotton planting in Cukurova region, the main soy planting region, had an adverse effect on soy planting. Lack of domestic production and an increase in consumption continue to make Turkey a major destination in the world for soybean and soybean meal trade. Accordingly, Turkey imported 1.06MMT soy during the first seven months of MY 2016/17. Ukraine and the United States were the leading suppliers with 515,000 MT and 263,000 MT respectively. Turkey also imported a total of 457,000 MT of soybean meal during the first half of the marketing year of which the great majority, 433,000 MT, was supplied by Argentina.

Soybean

Soybean PSD

Oilseed, Soybean

(1000 MT)

2015/2016

2016/2017

2017/2018

Market Begin Year

Sep 2015

Sep 2016

Sep 2017

Turkey

USDA

Official

New

Post

USDA

Official

New

Post

USDA

Official

New

Post

Area Planted

30

27

30

30

30

22

Area Harvested

27

27

30

30

27

22

Beginning Stocks

359

359

274

275

224

305

Production

100

100

100

100

90

85

MY Imports

2283

2284

2050

2420

2250

2450

MY Imp. From US

402

402

400

425

400

450

MY Imp. from EU

33

20

21

20

20

25

Total Supply

2742

2743

2424

2795

2564

2840

MY Exports

118

118

100

110

100

20

MY Exp. to EU

0

0

0

0

0

0

Crush

1050

1050

900

1060

950

1120

Food Use Dom.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Feed Waste Dom.

1300

1300

1200

1320

1250

1360

Total Dom. Cons.

2350

2350

2100

2380

2200

2480

Ending Stocks

274

275

224

305

264

340

Total Distribution

2742

2743

2424

2795

2564

2840

CY Imports

2200

2175

2000

2400

2200

2500

CY Imp. from U.S.

400

441

400

430

400

460

CY Exports

100

187

100

40

100

20

CY Exp. to U.S.

0

166

0

35

0

0

Production

In Cukurova region where ninety-five percent of the local soybean crop is planted, soybean has to compete with wheat, corn, and cotton. In recent years, attractive returns on peanuts also created an alternative to soybean planting in the region. Farmers in Cukurova region planted more cotton than expected due to attractive returns, which adversely affected soybean planting. Accordingly, MY 2017/18 domestic soybean planting and production is now estimated at 22,000 hectares, about twenty percent less compared to early season estimates, and 85,000 MT. While the planting area is shrinking, yields are increasing due better seed quality. The government encourages oilseeds planting by increasing production bonus payments annually but so far no announcement has been made for MY 2017/18 crop. In general, late announcements do not affect the first crop soybean planting and have limited effects for second crop soybean planting in the region.

Consumption

MY 2016/17 soy consumption is estimated around 2.38 MMT. Turkish poultry meat and egg producers and exporters are benefitting from higher prices in the domestic market and increase in exports. Turkish poultry products exporters are also aided from regional competitors’ avian influenza cases, which have boosted demand for Turkish product. Soybean consumption is projected to increase in MY 2017/18 and expected to reach 2.48 MMT as result of recent trends.

Trade

Total soybean imports during the first seven months of MY 2016/17 were 1.06 MMT. Ukraine is the leading supplier with 515,000 MT followed by the United States with 263,000 MT. Ukraine became the leading supplier of soybeans to Turkey in recent years benefiting from geographical proximity and favorable pricing. Paraguay (180,000 MT) and Argentina (73,000 MT) were the other leading suppliers. Soybean exports were about 104,000 MT during the same period, with the United States as the main destination. N. Cyprus (1,000 MT) and Iraq (750 MT) were the other soybean export destinations.

Soybean meal PSD

Meal, Soybean

(1000MT)

2015/2016

2016/2017

2017/2018

Market Begin

Year

Oct 2015

Oct 2016

Oct 2017

Turkey

USDA

Official

New

Post

USDA

Official

New

Post

USDA

Official

New

Post

Crush

1050

1050

900

1060

950

1120

Extr. Rate,999.999

0.7714

0.7714

0.7722

0.7689

0.7726

0.7679

Beginning Stocks

208

164

230

200

225

225

Production

810

810

695

815

734

860

MY Imports

603

592

730

700

750

725

MY Imp. From US

72

72

75

125

75

140

MY Imp. from EU

51

51

50

30

50

40

Total Supply

1621

1566

1655

1715

1709

1810

MY Exports

41

40

50

40

50

50

MY Exp. to EU

0

0

0

0

0

0

Industrial Dom.Consumption

0

0

0

0

0

0

Food Use Dom.Cons.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Feed Waste Dom.

1350

1326

1380

1450

1400

1500

Total Dom. Cons.

1350

1326

1380

1450

1400

1500

Ending Stocks

230

200

225

225

259

260

Total Distribution

1621

1566

1655

1715

1709

1810

CY Imports

674

665

700

700

750

750

CY Imp. From US

70

70

75

140

75

150

CY Exports

45

44

50

50

50

50

CY Exp. to U.S.

0

2

0

6

0

0

Soybean meal

Production

In contrast to the early season situation, recent lower world soybean prices made soybean imports more attractive and increased domestic crushing margins. As a result, MY 2016/17 soybean meal production is now estimated about 815,000 MT compared to the early season estimate of 700,000 MT. Provided that crushing margins continue as they are, domestic soybean meal production is expected to go up in the coming season as well since crushers will continue to utilize their large capacity.

Consumption

Domestic consumption of soybean meal is increasing and expected to reach 1.45 MMT during MY 2016/17 due to the increase in poultry meat and egg production. Soybean meal consumption in MY 2017/18 is also projected to continue increase, reaching 1.5 MMT, due to the same reasons.

Trade

Turkey has imported a total of 457,000 MT of soybean meal during the first half of MY 2016/17 of which the great majority, 433,000 MT, was supplied by Argentina. Ukraine (14,000 MT) and the United States (7,000 MT) were the other sources. Turkey exported about 19,000 MT of soybean meal during the same period. Iraq and the United States were the main destinations with 9,000 MT and 7,000 MT respectively.

Soybean Oil

Soybean Oil PSD

Oil, Soybean

2015/2016

2016/2017

2017/2018

Market Begin Year

Oct 2015

Oct 2016

Oct 2017

Turkey

USDA

Official

New

Post

USDA

Official

New

Post

USDA

Official

New

Post

Crush

1050

1050

900

1060

950

1120

Extr. Rate,

0.1781

0.1781

0.1778

0.1698

0.1779

0.1696

Beginning Stocks

35

35

47

47

27

27

Production

187

187

160

180

169

190

MY Imports

0

0

0

0

0

0

MY Imp. From US

0

0

0

0

0

0

MY Imp. from EU

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Supply

222

222

207

227

196

217

MY Exports

15

15

50

60

50

60

MY Exp. to EU

0

0

0

0

0

0

Industrial Dom.Сonsumption

80

80

70

80

70

75

Food Use Dom.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Feed Waste Dom. Cons

80

80

60

60

50

60

Total Dom. Cons.

160

160

130

140

120

135

Ending Stocks

47

47

27

27

26

22

Total Distribution

222

222

207

227

196

217

CY Imports

0

0

0

0

0

0

CY Imp. From US

0

0

0

0

0

0

CY Exports

20

34

50

50

50

55

CY Exp. to U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

MY 2016/17 soybean oil production will be about 180,000 MT and expected to increase to 190,000 MT in MY 2017/18. Main soybean oil usage in Turkey continues to be industrial and feed use since the biosafety law forbids soybean oil to be used in food if it is produced from biotech soybeans.

Due to large domestic crushing Turkey did not import soybean oil during the first half of the MY 2016/17. Exports during the same period however were about 40,000 MT. China was the leading buyer of Turkish soybean oil with 20,000 MT, followed by Algeria (15,500 MT) and Iraq (3,000 MT).