Turkish Soybean Import Is More Attractive June 2, 2017
Highlights
Turkish soybean area and production for MY 2017/18 are now estimated about 22,000 hectares and 85,000 MT, respectively. An increase in cotton planting in Cukurova region, the main soy planting region, had an adverse effect on soy planting. Lack of domestic production and an increase in consumption continue to make Turkey a major destination in the world for soybean and soybean meal trade. Accordingly, Turkey imported 1.06MMT soy during the first seven months of MY 2016/17. Ukraine and the United States were the leading suppliers with 515,000 MT and 263,000 MT respectively. Turkey also imported a total of 457,000 MT of soybean meal during the first half of the marketing year of which the great majority, 433,000 MT, was supplied by Argentina.
Soybean PSD
Oilseed, Soybean (1000 MT) | 2015/2016 | 2016/2017 | 2017/2018 | |||
Market Begin Year | Sep 2015 | Sep 2016 | Sep 2017 | |||
Turkey | USDA Official | New Post | USDA Official | New Post | USDA Official | New Post |
Area Planted | 30 | 27 | 30 | 30 | 30 | 22 |
Area Harvested | 27 | 27 | 30 | 30 | 27 | 22 |
Beginning Stocks | 359 | 359 | 274 | 275 | 224 | 305 |
Production | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 90 | 85 |
MY Imports | 2283 | 2284 | 2050 | 2420 | 2250 | 2450 |
MY Imp. From US | 402 | 402 | 400 | 425 | 400 | 450 |
MY Imp. from EU | 33 | 20 | 21 | 20 | 20 | 25 |
Total Supply | 2742 | 2743 | 2424 | 2795 | 2564 | 2840 |
MY Exports | 118 | 118 | 100 | 110 | 100 | 20 |
MY Exp. to EU | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Crush | 1050 | 1050 | 900 | 1060 | 950 | 1120 |
Food Use Dom. | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Feed Waste Dom. | 1300 | 1300 | 1200 | 1320 | 1250 | 1360 |
Total Dom. Cons. | 2350 | 2350 | 2100 | 2380 | 2200 | 2480 |
Ending Stocks | 274 | 275 | 224 | 305 | 264 | 340 |
Total Distribution | 2742 | 2743 | 2424 | 2795 | 2564 | 2840 |
CY Imports | 2200 | 2175 | 2000 | 2400 | 2200 | 2500 |
CY Imp. from U.S. | 400 | 441 | 400 | 430 | 400 | 460 |
CY Exports | 100 | 187 | 100 | 40 | 100 | 20 |
CY Exp. to U.S. | 0 | 166 | 0 | 35 | 0 | 0 |
Production
In Cukurova region where ninety-five percent of the local soybean crop is planted, soybean has to compete with wheat, corn, and cotton. In recent years, attractive returns on peanuts also created an alternative to soybean planting in the region. Farmers in Cukurova region planted more cotton than expected due to attractive returns, which adversely affected soybean planting. Accordingly, MY 2017/18 domestic soybean planting and production is now estimated at 22,000 hectares, about twenty percent less compared to early season estimates, and 85,000 MT. While the planting area is shrinking, yields are increasing due better seed quality. The government encourages oilseeds planting by increasing production bonus payments annually but so far no announcement has been made for MY 2017/18 crop. In general, late announcements do not affect the first crop soybean planting and have limited effects for second crop soybean planting in the region.
Consumption
MY 2016/17 soy consumption is estimated around 2.38 MMT. Turkish poultry meat and egg producers and exporters are benefitting from higher prices in the domestic market and increase in exports. Turkish poultry products exporters are also aided from regional competitors’ avian influenza cases, which have boosted demand for Turkish product. Soybean consumption is projected to increase in MY 2017/18 and expected to reach 2.48 MMT as result of recent trends.
Trade
Total soybean imports during the first seven months of MY 2016/17 were 1.06 MMT. Ukraine is the leading supplier with 515,000 MT followed by the United States with 263,000 MT. Ukraine became the leading supplier of soybeans to Turkey in recent years benefiting from geographical proximity and favorable pricing. Paraguay (180,000 MT) and Argentina (73,000 MT) were the other leading suppliers. Soybean exports were about 104,000 MT during the same period, with the United States as the main destination. N. Cyprus (1,000 MT) and Iraq (750 MT) were the other soybean export destinations.
Meal, Soybean (1000MT) | 2015/2016 | 2016/2017 | 2017/2018 | |||
Market Begin Year | Oct 2015 | Oct 2016 | Oct 2017 | |||
Turkey | USDA Official | New Post | USDA Official | New Post | USDA Official | New Post |
Crush | 1050 | 1050 | 900 | 1060 | 950 | 1120 |
Extr. Rate,999.999 | 0.7714 | 0.7714 | 0.7722 | 0.7689 | 0.7726 | 0.7679 |
Beginning Stocks | 208 | 164 | 230 | 200 | 225 | 225 |
Production | 810 | 810 | 695 | 815 | 734 | 860 |
MY Imports | 603 | 592 | 730 | 700 | 750 | 725 |
MY Imp. From US | 72 | 72 | 75 | 125 | 75 | 140 |
MY Imp. from EU | 51 | 51 | 50 | 30 | 50 | 40 |
Total Supply | 1621 | 1566 | 1655 | 1715 | 1709 | 1810 |
MY Exports | 41 | 40 | 50 | 40 | 50 | 50 |
MY Exp. to EU | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Industrial Dom.Consumption | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Food Use Dom.Cons. | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Feed Waste Dom. | 1350 | 1326 | 1380 | 1450 | 1400 | 1500 |
Total Dom. Cons. | 1350 | 1326 | 1380 | 1450 | 1400 | 1500 |
Ending Stocks | 230 | 200 | 225 | 225 | 259 | 260 |
Total Distribution | 1621 | 1566 | 1655 | 1715 | 1709 | 1810 |
CY Imports | 674 | 665 | 700 | 700 | 750 | 750 |
CY Imp. From US | 70 | 70 | 75 | 140 | 75 | 150 |
CY Exports | 45 | 44 | 50 | 50 | 50 | 50 |
CY Exp. to U.S. | 0 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0 |
Soybean meal
Production
In contrast to the early season situation, recent lower world soybean prices made soybean imports more attractive and increased domestic crushing margins. As a result, MY 2016/17 soybean meal production is now estimated about 815,000 MT compared to the early season estimate of 700,000 MT. Provided that crushing margins continue as they are, domestic soybean meal production is expected to go up in the coming season as well since crushers will continue to utilize their large capacity.
Consumption
Domestic consumption of soybean meal is increasing and expected to reach 1.45 MMT during MY 2016/17 due to the increase in poultry meat and egg production. Soybean meal consumption in MY 2017/18 is also projected to continue increase, reaching 1.5 MMT, due to the same reasons.
Trade
Turkey has imported a total of 457,000 MT of soybean meal during the first half of MY 2016/17 of which the great majority, 433,000 MT, was supplied by Argentina. Ukraine (14,000 MT) and the United States (7,000 MT) were the other sources. Turkey exported about 19,000 MT of soybean meal during the same period. Iraq and the United States were the main destinations with 9,000 MT and 7,000 MT respectively.
Soybean Oil
Soybean Oil PSD
Oil, Soybean | 2015/2016 | 2016/2017 | 2017/2018 | |||
Market Begin Year | Oct 2015 | Oct 2016 | Oct 2017 | |||
Turkey | USDA Official | New Post | USDA Official | New Post | USDA Official | New Post |
Crush | 1050 | 1050 | 900 | 1060 | 950 | 1120 |
Extr. Rate, | 0.1781 | 0.1781 | 0.1778 | 0.1698 | 0.1779 | 0.1696 |
Beginning Stocks | 35 | 35 | 47 | 47 | 27 | 27 |
Production | 187 | 187 | 160 | 180 | 169 | 190 |
MY Imports | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
MY Imp. From US | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
MY Imp. from EU | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Total Supply | 222 | 222 | 207 | 227 | 196 | 217 |
MY Exports | 15 | 15 | 50 | 60 | 50 | 60 |
MY Exp. to EU | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Industrial Dom.Сonsumption | 80 | 80 | 70 | 80 | 70 | 75 |
Food Use Dom. | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Feed Waste Dom. Cons | 80 | 80 | 60 | 60 | 50 | 60 |
Total Dom. Cons. | 160 | 160 | 130 | 140 | 120 | 135 |
Ending Stocks | 47 | 47 | 27 | 27 | 26 | 22 |
Total Distribution | 222 | 222 | 207 | 227 | 196 | 217 |
CY Imports | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
CY Imp. From US | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
CY Exports | 20 | 34 | 50 | 50 | 50 | 55 |
CY Exp. to U.S. | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
MY 2016/17 soybean oil production will be about 180,000 MT and expected to increase to 190,000 MT in MY 2017/18. Main soybean oil usage in Turkey continues to be industrial and feed use since the biosafety law forbids soybean oil to be used in food if it is produced from biotech soybeans.
Due to large domestic crushing Turkey did not import soybean oil during the first half of the MY 2016/17. Exports during the same period however were about 40,000 MT. China was the leading buyer of Turkish soybean oil with 20,000 MT, followed by Algeria (15,500 MT) and Iraq (3,000 MT).