U.S. Soybean Exports Forecast to Reach Record

The U.S. soybean export forecast for 2016/17 is raised 1.4 million to a record 57.2 million tons this month on the strength of exports to date and outstanding sales to be shipped later. As of the week ending in June 29th, accumulated exports have reached 52.9 million tons, 18 percent above this time last year, and exceed total exports (including outstanding sales) in 2015/16.

Outstanding sales of U.S. soybeans for the current marketing year are also strong at 6.8 million tons, slightly below the record level observed in 2015/16. Last year’s large volume of outstanding sales so late in the marketing year was mostly triggered by supply tightness in South America. This lack of availability along with competitive pricing prompted the increase in buyer interest in U.S. soybeans. This year, while interest in U.S. soybeans remains strong, the market dynamics driving buyers to the United States are different as lower prices following Brazil’s record production have spurred additional global demand. Despite record post-harvest selling, Brazilian producers, facing these lower prices and a stronger real, have been more willing to store a larger percentage of this year’s crop in hopes that prices will rise. This has encouraged buyers to source additional product from the United States where supplies are flush and prices remain competitive.

The recent price increase could temper the U.S. export forecast, as the increased prices could spur additional Brazilian sales and dampen global demand, resulting in a larger than usual quantity of reported outstanding sales being pushed into the 2017/18 marketing year. Regardless, 2016/17 will prove to be a good year for US soybean exports.

OVERVIEW

2017/18

Global oilseed production is forecast higher this month to a new record of 573.9 million tons. The soybean production forecast is raised for the United States and China. A larger cottonseed projection in India offsets reductions in the United States and Pakistan. Higher sunflowerseed output is projected for Ukraine and Moldova and exceeds reductions in the European Union and the United States. A reduction in Australia’s rapeseed crop more than offsets gains in Russia and the United States. Peanut crop prospects are raised on gains in the United States. Global soybean imports are raised this month on a larger forecast for China, Argentina, and Pakistan which more than offset reductions for the European Union and Egypt. Exports are up on higher projections for Brazil and Ukraine. Global soybean stocks are lifted higher this month with increases in Argentina, Brazil, and China exceeding reductions in the United States. The U.S. season-average farm price for soybeans is raised this month to $9.40 per bushel.

2016/17

Global oilseed production is higher this month. The sunflowerseed production estimate is raised for Ukraine and Moldova. Soybean production is up in Paraguay and South Africa, and cottonseed production is adjusted higher in India. Global soybean imports are boosted on larger shipments to China, Argentina, Pakistan, Thailand, and Turkey which more than offset reductions in the European Union and Egypt. Exports are forecast higher this month as larger shipments from the United States, Canada, Paraguay, and Ukraine exceed reductions in Argentina and Brazil. Global soybean ending stocks are up this month on increases in South America and China, more than offsetting a decline in the United States. The U.S. season-average farm price for soybeans is down this month at $9.50 per bushel.

SOYBEAN PRICES

U.S. export bids in June, FOB Gulf, averaged $356/ton, down $11 from last month. FOB Brazil Paranagua averaged $360/ton, down $7 from last month. FOB Argentina Up River averaged $355, down $5 from last month. Record production in Brazil coupled with abundant supplies in the United States continue to weigh on the market and pressure prices lower. For the week ending June 29, U.S. 2016/17 soybean export commitments (outstanding sales plus accumulated exports) to China totaled 36.0 million tons compared to 27.5 million a year ago. Total commitments to the world are 59.7 million tons, compared to 51.3 million for the same period last year.

2017/18 OUTLOOK CHANGES

  • Argentina soybean imports are up 300,000 tons to 1.5 million reflecting strong trade with Paraguay in the current Oct/Sep period.
  • Australia rapeseed exports are down 500,000 tons to 2.6 million in response to reduced supplies following a lower production forecast.
  • Brazil
    • Soybean exports are boosted 500,000 tons to 64.0 million following an increase in supplies resulting from a larger carry-over from the current year.
    • Soybean meal exports are cut 250,000 tons to 15.3 million reflecting the current year’s slow export pace.
  • Canada
    • Rapeseed export are raised 500,000 tons to 11.2 million reflecting strong current year trends and reduced export competition from Australia.
    • Rapeseed meal exports are up 100,000 tons to 4.7 million on expectations of continued strong sales to China.
  • China soybean imports are boosted 1.0 million tons to 94.0 million on a raised protein meal consumption forecast.
  • Egypt
    • Soybean imports are down 200,000 tons to 2.8 million, while soybean meal imports are up 150,000 tons to 1.3 million, both on increased availability of global exportable supplies.
    • Sunflowerseed oil imports are up 100,000 tons to 550,000, following a lower soybean crush projection and a slightly lower palm oil import forecast.
  • European Union
    • Soybean imports are lowered 200,000 tons to 14.8 million, following trade reductions in the current marketing year as well as larger global sunflowerseed meal availability.
    • Sunflowerseed meal imports are up 200,000 tons to 4.0 million, while sunflowerseed oil imports are raised 100,000 tons to 1.7 million, reflecting growing crush and larger exportable supplies in Ukraine.
  • Iran soybean meal imports are lifted 250,000 tons to 1.9 million, on growing demand for protein feed for the recovering poultry industry.
  • Malaysia palm oil exports are cut 100,000 tons to 17.2 million, on slowing global demand.
  • Pakistan soybean imports are up 100,000 tons to 1.7 million, on growing demand from an expanding poultry sector.
  • Ukraine
    • Soybean exports are lifted 100,000 tons to 2.9 million, on larger sunflowerseed meal availability and reduced soybean meal demand in poultry feed.
    • Sunflowerseed meal and oil exports are raised 200,000 tons each to 4.8 and to 5.4 million, respectively, following larger sunflowerseed production and crush forecast.

2016/17 TRADE CHANGES (on pace of trade unless specified otherwise)

  • United States
    • Soybean exports are boosted 1.36 million tons to 57.2 million.
  • Argentina
    • Soybean imports are up 300,000 tons to 1.5 million.
    • Soybean exports are down 500,000 tons to 8.0 million.
  • Brazil
    • Soybean exports are are down 900,000 tons to 61.5 million.
    • Soybean meal exports are down 250,000 tons to 14.8 million.
  • Bangladesh palm oil imports are down 100,000 tons to 1.4 million.
  • Canada
    • Rapeseed export are up 600,000 tons to 11.0 million.
    • Rapeseed meal exports are up 200,000 tons to 4.7 million on strong demand from China.
    • Soybean exports are up 200,000 tons to 4.6 million.
  • China
    • Soybean imports are boosted 2.0 million tons to 91.0 million.
    • Soybean meal exports are down 150,000 tons to 1.4 million.
    • Rapeseed imports are up 300,000 tons to 3.9 million, and rapeseed meal imports are up 150,000 tons to 650,000.
    • Fish meal imports are up 100,000 tons to 1.1 million.
    • Palm oil imports are down 100,000 tons to 4.9 million reflecting the weaker pace of trade and slowing demand for lauric oils.
    • Peanut exports are up 100,000 tons to 650,000 on strong pace of trade in shelled peanuts.
  • Egypt
    • Soybean imports are down 200,000 tons to 2.2 million while soybean meal imports are up 200,000 tons to 1.4 million.
    • Palm oil imports are down 100,000 tons to 1.3 million while sunflowerseed oil imports are up 100,000 tons to 570,000.
  • European Union
    • Soybean imports are down 600,000 tons to 14.0 million.
    • Soybean meal imports are down 500,000 tons to 19.0 million.
    • Rapeseed imports are up 300,000 tons to 4.4 million.
    • Sunflowerseed meal imports are up 100,000 tons to 3.9 million.
    • Palm oil imports are down 100,000 tons to 6.6 million.
  • Iran soybean meal imports are up 225,000 tons to 1.7 million on a stronger pace of trade and recovering poultry sector as Iran resumes chicken exports to neighboring countries.
  • Malaysia
    • Palm oil exports are down 200,000 tons to 16.6 million in response to lower production forecast.
    • Soybean meal imports are down 100,000 tons to 1.5 million.
  • Moldova sunflowerseed exports are up 200,000 tons to 450,000 on a stronger pace of trade and more exportable supplies.
  • Pakistan soybean imports are up 100,000 tons to 1.5 million, while soybean meal imports are down 200,000 tons to 500,000.
  • Paraguay soybean exports are up 300,000 tons to 6.6 million.
  • Russia soybean meal imports are down 100,000 tons to 120,000 as exports fall by 100,000 tons to 300,000.
  • Thailand soybean imports are up 200,000 tons to 3.1 million, while soybean meal imports are down 150,000 tons to 2.9 million.
  • Turkey
    • Soybean imports are up 200,000 tons to 2.3 million.
    • Sunflowerseed imports are up 150,000 tons to 500,000.
    • Sunflowerseed oil imports are up 100,000 tons to 650,000.
  • Ukraine
    • Soybean exports are up 100,000 tons to 3.0 million.
    • Sunflowerseed meal exports are up 100,000 tons to 4.9 million.
    • Sunflowerseed oil exports are up 300,000 tons to 5.4 million.