Coarse Grains. World Markets and Trade – USDA Sept. 12, 2014
World corn production is a record in 2014/15 as larger crop forecasts for the United States, EU, and Brazil more than offset smaller production in China, Argentina, and Ukraine. Although global trade is unchanged, U.S., Brazilian, and EU exports are boosted because of less competition from Argentina. The U.S. season-average farm price is sharply lower due to prospects for huge domestic supplies.
For 2013/14, global corn trade is sharply higher on strong late-season demand, especially from Algeria and the EU. U.S. exports are up slightly. The season-average farm price is unchanged.
Following the release of the August WASDE report, U.S. corn quotes were nearly unchanged until early September. Since then, they have dropped about $13/ton to $183 as continued favorable weather has supported expectations for a larger crop. The premium of U.S. quotes over South American has remained largely unchanged even as U.S. new-crop sales wane and South American shipments ramp up. Black Sea quotes remain about $10/ton below U.S.
TRADE CHANGES IN 2014/15
• U.S. corn is boosted 500,000 tons to 44.5 million on prospects for a larger crop and less competition from Argentina. (2013/14 exports are up 500,000 tons to 49.5 million.)
• Argentine corn is slashed 1.5 million tons to 13.5 million because of a forecast smaller harvest in 2015.
• Brazilian corn is boosted 500,000 tons to 22.5 million on a higher crop estimate in 2014 and a larger forecast in 2015.
• EU corn is up 500,000 tons to 2.5 million on a larger crop.
• Paraguayan corn is cut 200,000 tons to 1.9 million as less is expected to be shipped after October 1. (2013/14 exports are raised 300,000 tons to 2.3 million.)
• Serbian corn is up 200,000 tons to 2.5 million on a larger crop.
• Argentine barley is cut 500,000 tons to 2.0 million on smaller crop prospects. (EU and Ukrainian barley are up 200,000 tons each on greater exportable supplies and less competition.)
• Canadian barley is up 200,000 tons to 1.0 million on larger supplies and stronger U.S. demand.
• Argentine sorghum is cut 500,000 tons to 1.3 million on sharply lower production prospects.
• U.S. sorghum is boosted 400,000 tons to 5.0 million on less competition from Argentina.
• Algerian corn is cut 200,000 tons to 3.4 million due to the timing of shipments. (2013/14 imports are up 600,000 tons to 4.2 million.)
• EU corn is slashed 1.0 million tons to 10.0 million due to greater domestic supplies of feed grains.
• Japanese corn is cut 300,000 tons to 15.7 million because of sluggish growth in feed demand.
• Taiwanese corn is cut 200,000 tons to 4.2 million because of larger carry-in stocks.
• Algerian barley is up 200,000 tons to 600,000 on a smaller crop.
• U.S. barley is boosted 100,000 tons to 600,000 due to lower availability of domestic malting barley supplies. (2013/14 is up 100,000 tons to 550,000.)
TRADE CHANGES IN 2013/14
Selected Exporters- based on trade data
• Argentine corn is raised 1.5 million tons to 12.5 million.
• Brazilian corn is boosted 1.5 million tons to 22.0 million.
• Canadian corn is up 200,000 tons to 1.7 million.
• Indian corn is boosted 200,000 tons to 3.7 million.
• Australian barley is up 300,000 tons to 6.3 million.
• Ukrainian barley is raised 500,000 tons to 2.7 million.
• U.S. sorghum is boosted 300,000 tons to 5.6 million.
Selected Importers- based on trade data
• EU corn is up 500,000 tons to 16.0 million.
• Indonesian corn is up 200,000 tons to 3.3 million.
• South Korean corn is up 300,000 tons to 10.3 million.
• Malaysian corn is up 200,000 tons to 3.4 million.
• Moroccan corn is up 200,000 tons to a record 2.1 million.
• Chinese barley is up 700,000 tons to 4.5 million.
• Jordanian barley is up 200,000 tons to a record 950,000.
• Chinese sorghum is up 600,000 tons to a record 4.5 million.
• Japanese sorghum is cut 200,000 tons to 1.1 million