Oilseeds and Products Annual Outlook. Canada March 17, 2017

Highlights

Canada's oilseed production (canola, soybeans, and sunflowers) for 2017/2018 is forecast to rise modestly to 25.3 million metric tons (MMT), up 1 percent from 2016/2017, driven by a small increase in canola production and expected yields. Total crush is forecast to drop by 4 percent to 10.5 MMT from the 2016/2017 anticipated crush levels of 11 MMT. The canola crush forecast is down 377 thousand metric tons (TMT) in 2017/2018 with no increase in production expected.

Executive Summary

Total oilseeds production (canola, soybean, and sunflower seed) in 2017/2018 is forecast at 25.3 million metric tons (MMT), up 1percent from 2016/2017. Crush in 2017/2018 is forecast to drop 4 to 10.5 MMT from 11 MMT in 2016/17 due to low carry-in stocks and only a modest rise in overall oilseeds production available for crushing.

Canadian oilseed exports are forecast to remain virtually unchanged at 14.230 MMT in 2017/18 from 14.232 MMT in 2015/16. A weaker Canadian Dollar and strong crush capacity are expected to support Canadian oilseed exports in 2017/2018. Total meal production in 2017/2018 is forecast to drop by 3 percent to 6.4 MMT from 6.6 MMT in 2016/17 due to a very limited change total oilseeds production.

Total oils production in 2017/2018 is forecast to decrease slightly to 4.15 MMT down 3 percent from 4.3 MMT in 2016/17. Total meal exports in 2017/2018 will remain close to 4.6 MMT, down only 11 TMT from 2016/17.

Total oils exports in 2017/18 are projected at 3.15 MMT, down by 4 percent from 3.3 MMT in 2016/17.

Total Oilseeds

Based on current market conditions and historical trends, the area seeded to field crops in 2017/18 is forecasted to increase marginally compared to 2016/17. Post is forecasting a 9 percent rise in area harvested for canola, soybeans, and sunflower seeds combined in 2017/18 at 10.8 million hectares. However, Post expects to see a modest 2 TMT decline in exports in 2017/18 due to steady world demand and tighter domestic supplies.

RAPESEED (CANOLA), OILSEED

Production, Supply and Distribution Estimates:

The fall 2016 harvest was challenging in the Canadian Prairies for most field crops due to excess rain, frost, and snow. While excess rain caused a few problems for canola plants there were still expectations of a very large harvest. As of November 29th, 2016, 87 percent of Alberta’s canola had been harvested. Four percent of Saskatchewan’s canola was still left to be combined. Similar weather conditions occurred in Manitoba, where the canola harvest was 95 percent completed by mid-October. The Canadian Canola Council has noted that spring harvested canola tends to have lower weights, lower oil content, higher fatty acids in the oil and contain more impurities. And if left in swath too long, the crop would be more susceptible to pest issues like mice and fungal pathogens.

Area planted to canola is forecast to rise by 5 percent in 2017/18, to 8.5 million hectares as returns remain attractive compared to other field crops. Production in 2017/18 is forecast to remain steady at 18.5 MMT. However, total supply is forecast to decrease slightly by 3 percent due to 32 percent lower carry-in stocks of 1.4 MMT compared with 2 MMT in 2016/17.

Post does not expect to see any increase in crush capacity in 2017/18. Canada's 14 crushing and refining plants have the capacity to crush about 10 million tons of canola seed, and produce about 3 million tons of canola oil and 4 million tons of canola meal annually. Post forecasts the 2017/2018 canola crush at 8.6 MMT, down 4 percent from 2016/17.

Canola is highly dependent on the export markets, with between 50 and 60 percent of the production going to export. Canola seed exports in 2017/2018 will be limited by lower domestic supplies. Exports are forecast down in 2017/18 at 9.5 MMT due to steady world demand and tight domestic supplies.

Carry-out stocks of canola are forecast up slightly in 2017/18 at 1.4 MMT for a stocks-to-use ratio of 7.7 percent, which is considered tight.

SOYBEAN, OILSEED

Production, Supply and Distribution Estimates

For 2017/18, Post is forecasting planted area to rise by 11 percent, to a record 2.4 million hectares due to relatively attractive returns compared to alternative crops. Although the province of Ontario continues to lead in soybean acreage, Manitoba is rapidly expanding with acreage in 2016 up 18 percent from 2015 and doubling in the last five years. Not too far behind, Saskatchewan’s soybean acres have increased 40 percent in the last four years as producers embrace the high returns on the crop, which tend to do well in southern Saskatchewan’s summer heat and loamy soils that hold in moisture longer.

Post is forecasting a 4 percent increase in soybean production for 2017/18 with 6.7 MMT, compared with 6.45 MMT in 2016/17.

Post expects to see a 7 percent rise in soybean exports in 2017/18 as a result of stronger production numbers. Statistics Canada is forecasting soybean prices to fall to $435-475/t as pressure from lower American prices is mostly offset by the weakness of the Canadian Dollar, which should also account for a higher outflow of soybeans. Imports in 2017/18 are forecast to drop by 29 percent from the previous year with high expectations that production will offset low beginning stocks in 2017/18. However, Post forecasts even lower ending stocks in 2017/18 at 247 TMT, down 14 percent from 287 TMT in 2016/17.

While there are discussions of the value of building a soybean crush facility in the Canadian Prairies, there are no current plans to do so. Current soybean crush capacity is estimated at 3.2 MMT. Domestic soybean crush in 2017/2018 is forecast to fall by 5 percent to 1.9 MMT as a result of lower beginning stocks.

SUNFLOWER SEED, OILSEED

Production, Supply and Distribution Estimates:

For 2017/18, Post is forecasting an 8 percent rise in sunflower seed production at 55 TMT on expectations of higher yields and good returns relative to other crops. Similarly, exports and carry-out stocks are expected to remain just below 2016/17 levels due to lower carry-in stocks. The United States is Canada’s main export market for sunflower seed and accounts for over 95 percent of Canada’s total exports.

The National Sunflower Association of Canada estimates that approximately 70 percent of national production is used for confectionary products such as processed seeds in the shell or hulled for the snack market and the baking industry.

There is currently no large scale crush facility in the province of Manitoba where 90 percent of Canadian sunflower seeds are produced. Most of the Canadian sunflower oil production is either processed in the province for the bird food market or exported as a raw product to crush facilities in the United States.

OILMEALS

For 2017/18, Post is forecasting a 4 percent drop in total canola and soybean crush to 10.4 MMT due to a rise in crop production in the oilseeds sector, which should offset lower carry-in stocks from 2016/17. As a result, total meal production is forecast to decline 3 percent from 6.6 MMT in 2016/17 to 6.4 MMT in 2017/18.

Meal imports in 2017/2018 are forecast to decrease to 732 MMT, 4.5 percent below 2016/2017 levels due to higher projected domestic crush.

Post is forecasting virtually no change in total meal exports for 2017/18 at 4.6 MMT. A weaker Canadian Dollar against the American Dollar is expected to do little more than maiantain oilseeds meal exports.

RAPESEED (CANOLA) MEAL

Production, Supply and Distribution Estimates

Canola is crushed for its oil and the canola meal is sold at a discount compared to soybean meal due to its lower protein content. The majority of the canola meal produced in Canada is exported to the United States for use in the dairy industry. Canola meal, when added to the dairy cow’s diet, has proven to boost milk production.

Canola meal production in 2017/2018 is forecast to fall 4 percent to 4.8 MMT from 5 MMT in 2016/17. Statistics Canada is projecting canola prices will rise in 2017/18 to $505-535/t versus $509/t in 2016/17. Statistics Canada has pointed out that the tightening of the stocks-to-use ratio to 1 percent should support canola prices above levels implied by world soybean oil and soybean meal prices.

Nearly all canola meal is exported for use as feed in the United States dairy industry and has been growing as Canadian crush capacity has increased. In 2017/2018, Post expects to see lower domestic supplies lead to slightly lower canola meal exports, in the range of 2 percent. Post expects that higher beginning stocks in 2017/18, up by nearly 18 percent from the previous year will translate into a lower need for imports, down by 12 percent from 2016/17. Growth in domestic demand from the Canadian dairy industry is limited by Canada’s restrictions on milk production. For these reasons, Post has forecasted domestic usage for feed in 2017/2018 up by 5 percent on trend at 672 TMT.

SOYBEAN MEAL

Production, Supply and Distributio:n Estimates

Soybean meal produced in Canada is primarily consumed in the domestic livestock industry. Post is forecasting soybean meal production in 2017/2018 to rise modestly by less than a percentage point to 1.58 MMT due to tighter supplies available for crush.

Post is forecasting imports of soymeal in 2017/2018 will drop by 4 percent to 717 TMT as a result of a slight rise in production and a weaker Canadian Dollar against the U.S Dollar. Nearly all of Canada’s soymeal imports come from the United States. However, Post expects the weaker Canadian Dollar to raise exports of soybean meal in 2017/18 by 39 percent to 277 TMT compared to 200 TMT in 2016/17.

Feed consumption in 2017/2018 is forecast to decrease slightly to 2 MMT due to lower domestic supplies resulting from lower crush. While there seems to be some loosening of provincial policies in Western Canada that have been restricting hog expansion, any increase in hog production will be very gradual. The repealing of the Country of Origin Labelling (COOL) legislation is also expected to have little impact on feed consumption in the next crop year.

For 2017/18 Post is forecasting a 3 percent lower domestic oil production of 4.15 MMT due to tight carry-in stocks and marginal production increase of canola and soybean of one percent over 2016/17.

Despite tighter beginning stocks in 2017/18 imports of oils are forecast to drop by 3 percent, most likely due to the weaker Canadian Dollar. However, it will be challenging to take advantage of the low Canadian Dollar for exports as the domestic supply of oils will be constrained. Therefore, Post is forecasting that exports for 2017/18 will decrease by 4 percent with 3.15 MMT of oil, down from 3.3 MMT in 2016/17.

RAPESEED (CANOLA) OIL

Production, Supply and Distribution Estimates

For 2017/18 Post is forecasting canola oil production down by 148 TMT from 2016/17 as a result of lower canola seed carry-in, which is unlikely to be offset by higher canola production. Similarly, crush is also forecast down 4 percent for 2017/18 for the same reasons.

Canola oil exports in 2017/2018 are projected down to 3 MMT, 4.6 percent below 2016/2017’s estimate of 3.15 MMT. Year-to-date export data shows that China has doubled its canola oil imports from Canada, while the United States, the largest export market for Canada, is on track to import similar volumes to the previous year.

Post foresees a decrease in Canola oil imports in 2017/2018 as a result of the lower Canadian Dollar. Therefore, Post forecasts canola oil imports in 2017/2018 at 38 TMT, down 24 percent from 50 TMT in 2016/17.

Post does not foresee any change in domestic use or consumption of canola oil in 2017/18, but given lower supplies, forecasts tighter ending stocks at 490 TMT, down 2 percent from the previous year.

SOYBEAN OIL

Production, Supply and Distribution Estimates

Post is forecasting soybean oil production to increase by one percentage point in 2017/2018 from 360 TMT in 2016/17 to 365 TMT to reflect a modest 4 percent production increase in soybean output, lower carry-in of soybeans and crush.

Post also foresees soybean crush to drop modestly as lower supplies of soybeans are available due to weaker carry-in stocks of soybeans.

In 2017/2018, Post expects to see a small one percent drop in exports of soybean oil at 148 TMT compared with 150 TMT in 2015/2016 as a result of tighter crush. The United States is expected to remain Canada’s number one export market in 2017/18 with 90 percent of exports going south of the border. While supplies of soybean oil in 2017/18 are expected to be adequate to achieve export opportunities and take advantage of the slumping Canadian Dollar, Post believes it is unlikely that domestic demand will require supplementing by imports. Post is forecasting a 40 percent drop in imports of soybean oil for 2017/18.

Post foresees tighter supplies of soybeans and oil to translate into much lower ending stocks of oil in 2017/18 at 15 TMT, down 44 percent from the previous year.

PEANUTS

Oilseed, Peanut

Peanut production in Canada is constrained by climatic conditions. A minimum of 3,000 corn heat units is required for normal growth and development. Peanuts grown in areas with fewer heat units will not reach optimum maturity and generally the yield is too low to justify commercial production. As a result, minor peanut production is limited to a few farms in southern Ontario that plant in the range of 200-400 hectares. Canada is therefore a net importer of peanuts with the United States and China being the top suppliers.

Post is forecasting a 9 percent drop in peanut production in 2017/18 at 143 TMT, down from 157 TMT the previous year to reflect Ontario’s decreased production of oilseeds. The weaker Canadian Doller is expected to make importing peanuts less feasible for domestic processing and confectionary use rather than using up as much of the domestic supply as is available, which is why Post is forecasting ending stocks of peanuts at zero in 2017/18.

POLICY DEVELOPMENTS

Proposed Phase-out of Imidacloprid Neonicotinoid Pesticide: Comment Deadline Extended

On November 23rd, 2016 the Pest Management Regulatory Agency (PMRA) of Health Canada announced a proposed phase-out of the neonicotinoid seed treatment pesticide, imidacloprid, commonly used on corn and soybeans. The phase-out was proposed after an evaluation determined that under current conditions of use, the environmental risks for most products containing imidacloprid do not meet current safety standards.

The environmental assessment showed that, in aquatic environments in Canada, imidacloprid is being measured at levels that are harmful to aquatic insects. The environmental assessment also found that there is a potential risk to birds and small mammals from feeding on seeds that are treated with imidacloprid. The health assessment did not identify human health concerns from any exposure route when used according to current label standards.

The PMRA is proposing to phase-out all the agricultural and a majority of other outdoor uses of imidacloprid over three to five years. PMRA will consider alternate risk management proposals, provided that they can achieve acceptable levels in the environment in the same timeframe.

PMRA is inviting the public to submit comments on the proposed re-evaluation before making a final re-evaluation decision on imidacloprid. The PMRA will accept and consider written comments on this proposal received up to March 23rd, 2017.

Canada and China Negotiating Long-Term Rules on Canola Dockage

On September 1, 2016 China’s quarantine agency, AQSIQ was expected to reduce dockage allowances on imports of canola from 2.5 percent to 1 percent over concerns of blackleg disease. If passed, the new allowances would prove very challenging for export companies to meet as the technology is limited in how low a level of dockage it can achieve. However, Canadian Prime Minster Justin Trudeau was successful in extending current dockage rules beyond the September 1st deadline as the two countries continue to negotiate a long-term solution. Although there have been no further developments in this matter since September 2016, Global Affair Canada announced in early March that it is launching consultations on a potential Canada-China free trade agreement. China accounts for nearly one half of Canadian canola exports.