Comparative table of StatCan data and market expectations

(mln tonnes)

Statscan

Mar 31/2017

Average estimate

Lowest estimate

Highest estimate

Statscan

Mar 31/2016

All wheat

16.601

18.3

17.8

18.6

14.379

Durum

4.078

5.2

4.9

5.4

2.705

Canola

6.567

6.7

5.0

8.4

8.565

Oats

1.663

1.6

1.4

1.8

1.817

Barley

4.578

4.4

4.2

4.8

3.733

As of March 31, 2017, total stocks of canola, soybeans and oats were lower compared with the same date in 2016. Meanwhile, total stocks of wheat, corn for grain and barley were up.

Wheat

Total wheat stocks were at 16.6 million metric tonnes as of March 31, 2017, up 15.5% from the same day a year earlier. This increase resulted from higher stock levels being held on farms, up 17.5% to 12.2 million tonnes, and a 10.2% rise in commercial stocks to 4.4 million tonnes. Farm stock levels in Saskatchewan increased by 11.1% to 5.9 million tonnes, while farm stocks in Alberta increased 26.9% to 4.2 million tonnes.

Canola

As of March 31, total canola stocks were down 23.3% from the same day a year earlier to 6.6 million tonnes. This decrease resulted from a 28.0% decline in on-farm stocks to 5.0 million tonnes. On-farm stocks in Saskatchewan were down 32.1% to 2.3 million tonnes, while farm stocks in Alberta fell 24.5% to 1.8 million tonnes. Commercial stocks also contributed to the overall decrease as they were down 3.4% to 1.6 million tonnes.

Corn for grain

Corn for grain stocks were up 7.7% from the same reference date a year earlier, to a record high 8.4 million tonnes. Commercial stocks were up 40.6% to 2.8 million tonnes while farm stocks were down 3.6% to 5.6 million tonnes. Farm stocks in Quebec increased 6.2%, to a record high 2.1 million tonnes for a March 31 stock levels reading.

Soybeans

Soybean stocks decreased 4.2% to 1.9 million tonnes as of March 31, despite a 1.4% increase in production in 2016. On-farm stocks were down 19.6% to 930 000 tonnes, mainly driven by Ontario, where they fell 33.8% to 460 000 tonnes. Commercial stocks increased 18.6% to 925 000 tonnes.

Barley and oats

Total barley stocks increased 22.6% to 4.6 million tonnes as of March 31, following a 6.8% gain in production in 2016. Farm stocks grew 24.2% compared with the same day a year earlier, to 4.3 million tonnes. The commercial stock levels increased 4.6% to 317 100 tonnes.

After an 8.2% year-over-year decline in oat production in 2016, total oat stocks decreased 8.5% to 1.7 million tonnes compared with March 31, 2016. Both farm stocks (-6.8%) and commercial stocks (-19.1%) contributed to the overall decrease.

Total stocks of principal field crops at March 31

March 2015

March 2016

March 2017

March 2015 to March 2016

March 2016 to March 2017

thousands of tonnes

% change

Total wheat

17 994

14 379

16 601

-20.1

15.5

Durum wheat

2 558

2 705

4 078

5.7

50.8

Wheat excluding durum

15 436

11 675

12 522

-24.4

7.3

Barley

3 405

3 733

4 578

9.6

22.6

Canola

8 548

8 565

6 567

0.2

-23.3

Corn for grain

6 289

7 763

8 360

23.4

7.7

Dry field peas

1 743

1 351

1 700

-22.5

25.8

Flaxseed

382

553

404

44.8

-26.9

Lentils

1 159

555

1 070

-52.1

92.8

Oats

1 673

1 817

1 663

8.6

-8.5

Rye

88

99

198

12.5

100.0

Soybeans

2 078

1 937

1 855

-6.8

-4.2