Copra Production In Malaysia Continues To Decline March 29, 2017

Highlights

Palm oil production is expected to increase from 17.7 million tons in 2015/16 to 19.4 million tons in 2016/17 and to 21.0 million tons in 2017/18 due to palm trees recovering from tree stress due to prolonged dry season from the El-Nino weather anomaly recorded throughout 2015/16. Conducive weather patterns are expected in 2016/17 which will see increased production of Fresh Fruit Bunches (FFB). The use of high yield seedlings introduced in 2010 onwards improved yields although there has been less expansion in planted area. Exports of U.S soybeans are expected to increase to 250,000 tons in 2016/2017 and to 300,000 tons in 2017/18. The increase is in line with projected increase in poultry consumption.

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

U.S. exports of soybeans to Malaysia will remain strong and increase to 250,000 tons in 2016/17 and 300,000 tons in 2017/18. In line with strong demand for poultry meat, total overall imports increased from 800,000 tons in 2016/17 to 820,000 tons in 2017/18, an increase of 2.5 percent. Strong demand is due a consumer switch to a cheaper protein source such as dressed poultry (which is price controlled) as the price of beef, seafood and pork have risen with the implementation of a 6% Goods and Service Tax (GST) and depreciation of Malaysian currency by almost 30 percent for the last 18 months. The United States is the largest supplier of soybeans to Malaysia; whereas, for soybean meal, Argentina has over 95 percent market share.

Production of Crude Palm Oil (CPO) is expected to increase by 9.7% to 19.5 million tons in 2016/17 from 17.7 million tons recorded in 2015/16. For 2017/18, production of CPO is forecast at 21.0 million tons due to favorable weather patterns for the year.

Diseases and inconsistent application of agronomic practices (especially pesticides and fertilizers), i.e., smallholder farmers do not have fixed schedule program in applying pesticides and fertilizers, contributed to lower yields of fresh fruit bunches (FFB). Smallholders’ farms accounted for 60 percent of palm planted area in Malaysia.

Big plantation companies, on the other hand, show dramatic improvement in yields as palm trees recover from trees stress. Introduction of high yielding seedlings during 2010 replanting saw increases in production which compensate low yields by smallholder farmers. Even so, shortage of manual labor remained the main issue faced by the industry. Palm oil exports are expected to stagnate and expected at 17.2 million tons, in 2016/17, due to stiff competition from Indonesia and other edible oils such as soybean, sunflower, canola and rape seed oils.China, India and Pakistan remain major export markets for Malaysia’s palm oil. In 2015/16, exports to the United States were 636,000 tons valued at US$401 million.

Soybeans

Production

There is no commercial cultivation of soybeans in Malaysia.

Imports

Imports of soybeans saw a jump from 643,000 tons in 2014/15 tons to 885,000 tons in 2015/16, an increase of 37%. This was due to competitive pricing of soybeans as production was at a record high in 2016 attributed to good weather in the Northern Hemisphere. Also, prices were higher than corn which stimulated production. For 2016/17, imports of soybeans are expected to drop to 800,000 tons as depreciation of Malaysia currency made it expensive to import. The States remains the top supplier of soybean commanding 24% or 210,000 tons in 2015/16, up to 31% or 250,000 tons in 2016/17.

Exports of U.S soybean is forecast to further increase to 300,000 tons in 2017/18 in line with strong demand from the poultry sector. During the fourth quarter 2016, there were a few mergers and acquisitions of big layer poultry farms with small ones which dampened rising cost (increased in cost of imported soybeans and soy meals due to depreciation of Malaysian currency) and to sustain profitability in the industry. Canada, Argentina and Brazil are the other major suppliers of soybeans to Malaysia.

Soybean crushing is growing in line with slow growth in the poultry industry. In 2015/16, crushing activity was at 590,000 tons and forecast to slightly drop to 570,000 tons in 2016/17. In 2017/18, crushing activity will likely reach 580,000 tons in line with increased exports of soybeans. Most imported soybeans are for crushing to produce oil and meal for local feed consumption in the poultry industry. To ensure that soybeans provide the desired nutrients for poultry feeds, those imported (especially from the States) are from identity preserved (IP) soybeans. Human consumption only accounts for 25 percent and imported from Canada for the production of soy drinks and a local delicacy called “tempe” (a fermented soybean cake).

Trade Policy & Market Access

A labeling requirement for GE content went into effect in July 2014, but it has not been enforced yet. Under the GE labeling requirement, products that contain less than 3 percent GE content, and highly refined processed foods and meat from animals fed with GE grains are exempt from the GE labeling requirement. Beginning in 2015, the Malaysian Department of Agriculture and the Agriculture and Quarantine Inspection Service began to require that soybean importers obtain an import permit and that a phytosanitary certificate accompany all consignments. These new requirements did not cause any disruptions in U.S. soybean imports.

Soybean Imports

Copra

Copra production in Malaysia continues to decline as it is not profitable vis-à-vis alternative uses for land. Although there is some coconut plantation replanting, new trees are for production of coconut juice rather than for desiccated coconut or coconut cream.

TOTAL OILMEALS

Soybean Meal

Production and Imports

In tandem with steady growth in population, meal imports are expected to moderately increase. Imports are forecast at 1.58 million tons in 2016/17 and will slightly increase to 1.59 million tons in 2017/18. In 2015/16, soybean meal imports were 1.29 million tons valued at US$684 million. The poultry industry consumed more than 80% of the soybean meal imported and the remaining was for swine and aquaculture industries. Argentina is the dominant supplier of soybean meal controls 95% of total Malaysian imports.

Consumption

As demand for poultry and swine products remains firm and as a function of population growth and general preference for eating poultry, soybean meal consumption is forecast to increase marginally at 5.7 percent in 2016/17 and at 3.2 percent in 2017/18.

Soybean meal imports

Production of palm kernel meal (used as a feed supplement for ruminant animals, such as cow and sheep, as it is high in calcium) is expected to decline from 2.73 million tons in 2014/15 to 2.53 million tons in 2015/16 In line with a drop in production of palm kernel oil. For 2016/17 production is likely to increase to 2.65 million tons and further increase to 2.9 million tons in 2017/18. Increases are in line with recovery and increase in production of palm oil. As palm kernel meal commands a higher price in overseas markets, most production goes to New Zealand and the European Union. Around 10 percent is consumed domestically.

TOTAL OILS

Palm Oil

As palm oil production to make recovered from the effect of El Nino, production of Fresh Fruit Bunches (FFB) has steadily increased and recovered. (Palm oil is extracted from the pulp of the oil palm fruit and is used for food products including cooking oils, margarines, noodles, shortenings, vegetable ghee, bakery products, chocolates, hot beverages, coffee creamers, and ice cream). Use of high yield seedlings during the replanting program in 2010 onwards saw yields increase consistently even though area planted increased marginally as the Sarawak government imposed a moratorium on new palm plantations pending court ruling on Native Customary Rights (NCR) land issues (i.e., property rights) between native peoples and plantation companies. Previously, the Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) forecasted Sarawak having palm planted area of 2.0 million hectares by 2020. With the moratorium still in place, the target palm planted area will take some time to reach.

Expansion in new palm planted areas is attributed to conversion of old non-profitable rubber plantations into close-by palm plantations, particularly in Peninsular Malaysia and from privately or state owned lands in Sarawak free from NCR issues.Tree stress due to weather abnormalities declined. Production of fresh fruit bunches steadily recovered, and is expected to fully recover by early-2018. Based on input received from planters, production is expected to normalize to pre-El Nino within 2 calendar years. Even so, Post believes it will take a while before Malaysia’s CPO production reaches 22 million tons.

In 2017/18, total planted palm tree area is expected to reach 6.1 million hectares, with most expansion in East Malaysia. This area includes replanted plantations and new plantation areas with 0-3 year old palm trees that have not produced any fruits. Total harvested area in 2017/18, increased to 5.2 million hectares, an area with palm trees that produces fruit at least once or twice a year. Fully matured hectare equivalent (MHE) area for 2017/18, is estimated at 2.74 million hectares, an area where plantation with palm trees that produces fruits at least 4 times a year.

Yields are expected to slightly increase from 6.55 in 2015/16 to 7.04 in 2016/17 due to production recovery and expected to rebound to 7.66 in 2017/18 as the weather improves in line with increases in mature hectare equivalent (MHE). Consequently, output is forecast to grow to 21.0 million tons. Even so, shortage of manual labor is still prevalent in the industry and the main cause for yields increasing less than area expansion.

For 2016/17, Malaysia’s palm oil exports are forecasted at 17.15 million, a marginal increase of 0.51 million tons from 16.64 million tons recorded in 2015/16. For the year 2017/18 it is expected to increase to 18 million tons.

There are a few reasons why exports of Malaysia’s crude palm oil (CPO) is not expected to increase as much as expected. Low soybean priced recorded for the last few months saw the difference in palm oil and soybean prices narrow, making it cheaper to buy soybean than crude palm oil, thus reducing Malaysian export of palm oil to its key traditional markets. In addition, Indonesia, the largest producer of palm oil, has aggressively entered the China and India markets by lowering prices of their palm oil. Over the years, Indonesia gained market shares in China and India at the expense of Malaysia.

As the price of crude palm oil (CPO) futures is traded in Malaysian currency at the Malaysia Stock Exchange, depreciation of Malaysia currency by more than 30% relative to USD$, impacted the export selling price. For the last 20 months, the price of CPO traded in U.S. dollar remains around USD$650 to USD$730 per metric ton. The price of CPO in Malaysia currency, however, has increased by almost 30 percent during the same period. In April 2016 the price reached RM2,400, and for the first time after an absence for more than 18 months, GOM re-introduced the export tax on CPO. Palm oil analysts believe the price of Crude Palm Oil (CPO) will be traded around RM2,950 to RM3,200 (USD$663 to USD$719) for the rest of 2017 that will attract export taxes ranging 6.5 % to 7.5% for every ton of Crude Palm Oil (CPO) exported out of Malaysia. Such tax makes it expensive to export Crude Palm Oil (CPO) and lead some millers to sell it to local oleochemical refiners instead to avoid paying export taxes.

Trade Policy

As price of Crude Palm Oil is quoted in Malaysia currency at Malaysia Derivatives Market, export taxes has been in force since April 2016 when prices of Crude Palm Oil recorded above RM2,500.00 on of Palm Kernel Oil (PKO) is forecast to steadily increase in line with recovery production of Fresh Fruit Bunches (FFB). (Palm kernel oil is derived from the kernel or seed of the fruit in oil palms and mainly used for non-edible purposes to make soaps, cosmetics and detergents). In 2016/17 production of Palm Kernel Oil (PKO) are forecast at 2.3 million tons and in 2017/18 at 2.5 million tons, an increase of 8.7 percent. PKO exports are forecast at 1.06 million tons in 2016/17 and forecast to rebound to 1.2 million tons 2017/18. Main buyers are the United States, Singapore, Egypt, Australia, Russia and China.

Coconut Oil

Total coconut oil imports for 2016/17, is projected at 170,000 tons. Most of the imports are further refined and re-exported to third countries, namely Singapore, Ukraine and Australia with exports forecast at 150,000 tons in 2016/17.

For 2017/18 coconut oil imports is forecast to marginally increase to 175,000 tons with exports forecast at 155,000 tons. Coconut oil accounts for less than 1 percent of local consumption.

Coconut oil is an edible oil extracted from the kernel or meat of mature coconuts harvested from the coconut palm. It is commonly used in cooking, especially for frying as well as serves as a base ingredient for the manufacture of soap

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