Highlights

This news contains marketing year (MY) 2017/18 forecast for Croatia’s production in wheat, corn, and barley and updated numbers for MY 2016/17.

General Information:

Winter temperatures in Croatia were close to the seasonal average, but fell sharply below the norm in January. However, the temperature fell less sharply in the main cereal growing region, and no issues with winter cereal development have been reported. Currently, Croatia is under a warm weather wave and no damage to crops is expected. Spring sowing is underway.

According to the Croatian Statistical Institute, in marketing year (MY) 2017/18, land sown with only grains decreased approximately 26 percent. In the structure of total land sown with grains, winter wheat (with around 59 percent or 98,000ha) and barley (around 26 percent or 44,000ha) have the highest shares. However, the area for winter wheat decreased by nearly 50,000 hectares compared to the previous year. This has been the smallest planting of wheat and highest of rapeseed since 1990, and it can be attributed to the better revenue per hectare expected for rapeseed due to low protein content (10 to 13 percent) of wheat produced and consequently low price. In Croatia, the bulk of wheat grown is winter wheat.

Wheat

In MY 2016/17, wheat area was 160,000 ha, which is 13.5 percent more than in MY 2015/16. Total production was 865,000 MT or 13.8 percent more than in MY2015/16. Under this scenario, in MY 2016/17, Croatia had 428,520 MT of wheat for export and imported 63,828MT of wheat for blending.

In MY 2017/18, wheat area and production are expected to be smaller than average for Croatia; the forecast is just above 100,000 ha. Total production is forecast between 500,000 and 700,000 MT (depending on spring sowing). Under this scenario, Croatia will have maximum 200,000 MT of wheat for export.

Corn

In MY 2016/17, corn area was 241,000 ha, which is 8.7 percent less than in MY 2015/16. Total production was 2.1 million MT or 20 percent more than in MY 2015/16. Under this scenario, Croatia had 476,654 MT of corn for export.

In MY 2017/18, it is expected that corn area will go slightly up compared to 2016/17. Yield is expected to be average (around 2 million MT) and export is expected to remain high (around 450,000 MT) due to current low demand for feed on the domestic market. In addition, high MY 2016/17 yield created stocks that can also go into exports.

Barley

In MY 2016/17, barley area was 51,000 ha, which is 15.5 percent more than in MY 2015/16. Total production was 225,000 MT. Under this scenario, Croatia imported 35,850 MT of barley. In MY 2017/18 barley area and production are expected to be average for Croatia; the forecast is 50,000 ha. Total production is forecast at 210,000 MT. Under this scenario, Croatia would import approximately 35,000 MT of barley.