Highlights

The delayed onset and below-average rainfall in the northern bimodal and central transition areas has resulted in significant crop loss. FAS/Dar es Salaam forecasts marketing year (MY) 2017/18 corn production to decrease by 9.1 percent from the previous year 2016/2017. A marginal increase in wheat consumption is forecast in 2017/2018 due to rapid urbanization, rising incomes, and dietary diversification where corn has previously been the predominant starchy staple.

Corn

Production

The delayed onset and below-average rainfall in the northern bimodal and central transition areas has resulted in significant crop loss, with estimates up to more than half of the “Vuli” (short rain, minor crop) crop. Cumulative Vuli rains in northeastern Tanzania, including Arusha, Kilimanjaro, and Pwani, were only 30 to 65 percent of average through the first dekad in January. Similar poor rains in Geita, Dodoma, Kagera, Kigoma, Morogoro, Mwanza, and Shinyanga have resulted in some crop wilting at the tasseling stage. Below-average cumulative “Msimu” (long rain, major crop) rainfall is expected through April despite some enhanced rainfall in the near-term. Post forecasts marketing year (MY) 2017/18 corn production to decrease by 9.1 percent from the previous year 2016/2017, due to unfavorable weather conditions, lack of improved seeds, post-harvest loss, pests and diseases such as Maize Lethal Necrosis (MLN) and Army Worm infestation. The confined field trial for a drought-tolerant GE corn hybrid developed by the Water Efficient Maize for Africa (WEMA) project has started in Tanzania under an initiative that is building a new model for advancing agricultural innovation through public-private partnerships.

The production of corn in Tanzania is widely distributed across agricultural development zones and regions, adapted to agro-ecologies ranging from near sea level to 2400 meters (m) above sea level, depending on the variety. The main agro-ecologies, however, fall within 500-1500 m. The Southern Highlands Zone and Lake Zone occupy approximately 26 percent and 25 percent, respectively, of the total corn area in the country. These are followed by Eastern (13 percent), Northern (12 percent), Western (10 percent), Southern (8 percent), and Central (6 percent) zones.

Consumption

White corn is the main staple grain consumed in Tanzania. Corn provides 60 percent of dietary calories and more than 35 percent of utilizable protein to the Tanzanian population. It is also a major source of income for the majority of smallholders. Corn is produced for both human consumption and the market (about 40 percent is sold, mostly locally). Annual per capita consumption is 73 kg per person per year. Consumers prefer white flint corn; the amount of yellow corn grown in Tanzania is therefore negligible. Corn productivity in Tanzania is very low in spite of its importance to the country’s food security and economic well-being. Total corn consumption in MY 2017/18 is forecast at 49.05 MMT, a slight decrease compared to the previous year, on forecast sufficient domestic supplies.

Trade

Between 85 to 90 percent of Tanzania’s population, about 50 million people, eat corn. There are four recognized market channels:

• A myriad of small-scale farmers who sell to local traders and millers mainly in the rural areas and nearby cities;

• Medium-sized grain traders and millers who serve rural and urban centers;

• A few well-established, large-scale millers and traders based in Dar es Salaam, operating in both national and regional markets;

• Institutional buyers including The National Food Reserve Agency (NFRA), the World Food Programme (WFP), prisons, the armed forces, hospitals and schools.

The internal corn market usually has many different transactions between the farm gate and the consumer. At each stage a margin is taken which reduces overall financial efficiency. It is clear that changes in market structure are needed if a more efficient value chain is to be developed. Tanzania’s export trade is largely opportunistic, often illegal and depends on many internal and external factors. Periodic export bans have discouraged traders from seeking large export contracts and encouraged illegal routes: either by bribing at customs posts or through bush ‘panya’ routes across Tanzania’s highly-permeable borders. The countries receiving Tanzania corn are Zambia, Malawi, Rwanda, Burundi, the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and Kenya.

Corn: Production, Supply and Distribution (PS&D) Table


Corn

2015/2016

2016/2017

2017/2018

Market Begin Year

Jul 2015

Jul 2016

Jul 2017

Tanzania, United

USDA

New

USDA

New

USDA

New

Republic of

Official

Post

Official

Post

Official

Post

Area Harvested

4000

4000

4200

4200

0

4100

Beginning Stocks

1275

1275

1330

1330

0

1335

Production

6000

6000

5500

5500

0

5000

MY Imports

5

5

5

5

0

10

TY Imports

5

5

5

5

0

10

TY Imp. from U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Supply

7280

7280

6835

6835

0

6345

MY Exports

400

400

400

400

0

200

TY Exports

400

400

400

400

0

200

Feed and Residual

1000

1000

800

800

0

500

FSI Consumption

4550

4550

4300

4300

0

4405

Total Consumption

5550

5550

5100

5100

0

4905

Ending Stocks

1330

1330

1335

1335

0

1240

Total Distribution

7280

7280

6835

6835

0

6345

Wheat

A shift towards consumption of wheat from traditional staples such as coarse cereals and tubers has been observed in many parts of the country. Patterns of rapid growth in wheat consumption result from rapid urbanization, rising incomes, and dietary diversification where corn has previously been the predominant starchy staple. Wheat in Tanzania is grown almost exclusively as a commercial crop, on a large-scale basis in the northern highlands and by small and medium scale farmers in the southern highlands. Although less than 1% of farmers in Tanzania grow wheat, 32% of wheat production is exported, while 91% of wheat consumed is imported .Small volumes are traded across borders to the west of the country. As a more expensive staple, wheat, like rice, is disproportionately consumed by higher income, urban households. Still, effective wheat demand is in urban areas where population growth rates are above 5% as compared to fewer than 2% in rural areas

Wheat: Production, Supply and Distribution (PS&D)

Wheat


Wheat

2015/2016

2016/2017

2017/2018

Market Begin Year

Jul 2015

Jul 2016

Jul 2017


USDA

New

USDA

New

USDA

New

Tanzania, Republic of

Official

Post

Official

Post

Official

Post

Area Harvested

110

110

100

100

0

100

Beginning Stocks

166

166

156

156

0

151

Production

100

100

100

100

0

100

MY Imports

913

913

900

900

0

1000

TY Imports

913

913

900

900

0

1000

TY Imp. from U.S.

82

82

0

0

0

0

Total Supply

1179

1179

1156

1156

0

1251

MY Exports

33

33

5

5

0

5

TY Exports

33

33

5

5

0

5

Feed and Residual

0

0

0

0

0

0

FSI Consumption

990

990

1000

1000

0

1095

Total Consumption

990

990

1000

1000

0

1095

Ending Stocks

156

156

151

151

0

151

Total Distribution

1179

1179

1156

1156

0

1251

Rice

Production

Rice is grown in most regions of the country: with the Coast, Morogoro, Tabora, Mbeya, Mwanza, Shinyanga and Arusha Regions each produce in excess of 100 000 tonnes. Almost 20 percent of farmers are involved in rice production. Most rice is grown by smallholders under rainfed conditions but some farmers grow and irrigate 2 — 2.5 hectares under schemes that are often initiated and controlled by government. Larger farms have larger areas under irrigated cultivation but large-scale commercial rice farming is limited to a few private firms who bought their land when the large-scale National Agricultural and Food Corporation (NAFCO) schemes were privatized. In recent years the Tanzanian government, private sector and civil society have demonstrated a sustained commitment to realizing Tanzania’s agricultural potential. The Agricultural Sector Development Programme (ASDP) 2006— 2015 of the Government of Tanzania (GOT) is part of the broader National Strategy for Growth and Poverty Reduction (commonly known by its Kiswahili acronym ‘MKUKUTA’). A private sector initiative to invigorate agriculture through the ‘Kilimo Kwanza’ (‘Agriculture First’) campaign was endorsed by the government in 2009. The Government has prioritized rice through its National Rice Development Strategy. This seeks to double rice production by 2018 in order to improve food security and provide a potential surplus for export. The strategy aims to improve seed cultivars and input supply, the availability of irrigation, marketing, Research and Development (R&D), and agricultural credit.

Trade

There are active markets for paddy and rice throughout the year. Both products store well and will keep from one year to the next and are therefore extensively traded. Rice in Tanzania is mostly sold to consumers as polished milled rice. The preferred type for consumption is aromatic long grain rice but there is also a demand for sticky white long grain rice. Very few other products are available although there are limited supplies of brown rice and rice flour. Value added products such as rice crackers appear to have no place on the Tanzanian market.

Consumption

Rice is a staple food consumed in both urban and rural areas. The urban area of greater Dar es Salaam is the principal end market and accounts for about 60 percent of national consumption. Mbeya and Morogoro Regions are the main sources of supply. Dar es Salaam is the highest urban population and the third largest total population in the country. Rural consumers include smallholder rice farmers, who retain about 370 kg of their production for consumption by their own household of around five persons. Consumers usually purchase rice loose from bulk sacks either from traditional small retailers or at farmers’ markets. Quality differentiation is limited mainly to the amount of broken rice present (e.g. 80 percent whole grain, 20 percent broken grain), to whether it is aromatic or non-aromatic, and to whether it is local or imported. There is no significant premium for < 5 percent broken rice as demand is largely for 20 percent broken. Processors therefore mix broken and unbroken rice to achieve 20 percent broken; they also mix non-perfumed with perfumed rice as there is little demand for the former. Tanzanian rice achieves a premium over imported rice. There are also regional (‘place-of-origin’ or ‘geographic’) preferences and rice is often labelled as being from regions that are perceived by consumers as offering special qualities:

• Rice from Kyela is considered to be the best, followed by rice from Mbeya;

• Morogoro rice is viewed as good quality, but inferior to Kyela and Mbeya;

• Shinyanga rice is viewed as low quality as it is not aromatic and historically has contained a large amount of foreign matter.

There is currently only very limited branding. Supermarkets are a recent urban arrival in Tanzania (the first one opened in 2001) and only a small part of food retailing takes place through them (perhaps only 10—15 percent in Dar es Salaam, and even less in other urban centers). The scale of operations is still small and most outlets have limited storage facilities. The food service market is an important end user of rice and comprises several subsectors including traditional stalls and cafes selling cooked ‘street’ food, fast food outlets modelled on the American style (only in Dar es Salaam and other large cities), as well as western style restaurants, hotels and resorts. Institutional markets include the military, hospitals and educational establishments.

Rice


Rice, Milled

2015/2016

2016/2017

2017/2018

Market Begin Year

May 2015

May 2016

May 2017

Tanzania, United

USDA

New

USDA

New

USDA

New

Republic of

Official

Post

Official

Post

Official

Post

Area Harvested

1000

1000

1100

1100

0

1100

Beginning Stocks

0

0

0

0

0

0

Milled Production

1750

1750

1800

1800

0

1700

Rough Production

2652

2652

2727

2727

0

2576

Milling Rate (.9999)

6600

6600

6600

6600

0

6600

MY Imports

220

220

200

200

0

200

TY Imports

200

200

200

200

0

200

TY Imp. from U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Supply

1970

1970

2000

2000

0

1900

MY Exports

30

30

30

30

0

25

TY Exports

30

30

30

30

0

25

Consumption and Residual

1940

1940

1970

1970

0

1875

Ending Stocks

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Distribution

1970

1970

2000

2000

0

1900