Highlights

EU-28 poultry broiler meat production is expected to increase slightly again in 2017 driven by domestic demand. Consumers have been switching to broiler meat from other types of meat because it is less expensive and because of ease in preparation. In spite of increases in production, EU-28 broiler meat imports are forecast to slightly grow in 2017. EU-28 broiler meat exports in 2017 are expected to decrease significantly due to HPAI related embargoes set by major EU-28 customers such as South Africa and Philippines.

Production

EU-28 broiler meat production in 2017 is now forecast to increase by 1 percent from 2016. It follows a bigger than anticipated 5 percent growth in 2016, driven by significant production increases in Spain and Poland. The 2017 slowdown in production growth is linked to local outbreaks of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) in several EU-28 member States, notably Poland, Netherlands, United Kingdom, France and Germany. The HPAI outbreaks are expected to have an indirect but noticeable impact on the production levels as several major export markets are currently closed to broiler meat coming from affected EU-28 countries and/or regions, leading exporting companies to slowdown production. Reduced producers margins due to slightly higher feed costs at the end of 2016 and beginning of 2017, and lower broiler prices in some Member state such as the Netherlands have also a negative impact on production growth.

Consumption

EU-28 domestic consumption of broiler meat is still expected to increase more than total population growth in 2017, indicating a small increase in per-capita consumption. This is due to the switch from other meats to broiler meat, due to the difficult economic situation in the EU-28 region combined with diet changes to leaner and easier to prepare types of meat.

Trade

After an increase in 2016 driven by the EU-28 internal demand, broiler meat imports are expected to only grow slightly in 2017, due the competiveness of domestically produced broiler meat and its increased domestic availability linked to HPAI-related restrictions in some export markets. Ukraine is now the third largest supplier of broiler meat to the EU-28. Imports from Ukraine were briefly impacted by HPAI cases in this country in late 2016, but the EU-28 lifted its embargo in mid-January 2017.

EU-28 broiler meat exports in 2017 are expected to decline significantly due to trade embargoes in a few major EU-28 export markets such as South Africa and Philippines following HPAI outbreaks in several EU-28 countries. South Africa banned imports of broiler meat from France, Netherlands, Germany, Poland and United Kingdom. The embargo comes in addition to a 13.9 percent special duty applied to all imports of broiler meat into South Africa from the EU-28 since mid-December 2016.

Policy

The first infection with the High Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) virus H5N8, which has developed into an EU-wide epidemic in wild birds was detected in Hungary in October 2016. Since then this HPAI H5N8 virus was also detected in wild birds and in farm flocks in Poland, Croatia, Germany, Austria, Denmark, the Netherlands, Sweden, Finland, France, Romania, Bulgaria, Greece, the United Kingdom, Ireland, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Italy, Slovenia and Belgium, as well as in Switzerland and Serbia.

However, as farmers and veterinary services are on high alert and apply strict sanitary measures, the impact on the EU-28 broiler markets is likely to remain limited.

Poultry, Meat,Broiler

2015

2016

2017

Market Begin Year

Oct 2015

Oct 2016

Oct 2017

European Union

USDA

Official

New

Post

USDA

Official

New

Post

USDA

Official

New

Post

Inventory

0

0

0

0

0

0

Slaughter

0

0

0

0

0

0

Beginning Stocks

0

0

0

0

0

0

Production

10810

10890

11070

11330

11300

11450

Total Imports

728

730

750

770

760

780

Total Supply

11538

11620

11820

12100

12060

12230

Total Exports

1177

1178

1250

1285

1275

1170

Human

10361

10442

10570

10815

10785

11060

Other Use, Losses

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Dom.Consumption

10361

10442

10570

10815

10785

11060

Total Use

11538

11620

11820

12100

12060

12230

Ending Stocks

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Distribution

11538

11620

11820

12100

12060

12230