Highlights

India’s CY 2017 beef and water buffalo meat (carabeef) production is projected to increase by four percent to 4.35 million tons carcass weight equivalent (CWE) due to population growth and moderate export demand. CY 2017 carabeef exports are projected at 1.95 million tons CWE on moderate export demand from the Middle East, Africa, and Southeast Asia.

Executive Summary

India’s CY 2017 cattle (Bos taurus or Bos indicus) and water buffalo (Bubalus bubalis) population is estimated at 303.6 million head. CY 2017 carabeef and beef production is projected to increase by four percent to 4.35 million tons CWE due to population growth and moderate export demand. CY 2017 carabeef exports are projected to increase to 1.95 million tons CWE on moderate demand from the Middle East, Africa, and Southeast Asia. Meanwhile, CY 2016 carabeef exports are lowered to 1.85 million tons on sluggish demand.

Commodities

Animal Numbers, Cattle

Meat, Beef and Veal

Production

India’s CY 2017 cattle and water buffalo population is forecast to increase to 303.6 million heads due to marginally less slaughter in CY 2016. Post’s earlier carabeef and beef production forecast of 4.4 million tons CWE is lowered to 4.35 million tons CWE on expectation of slow recovery of exports to some of the Southeast Asian and African countries. Post’s estimate of carabeef and beef production for CY 2016 is revised to 4.2 MMT CWE from previous estimate of 4.3 MMT CWE on sluggish export demand.

India’s demonetization policy announced on November 8, 2016 also negatively affected export trade once export-oriented slaughter operations depleted funds to make cash payments to the traders and small farmers for the purchase of animals. Export trade was most affected during the month of December 2016. Carabeef production is mainly concentrated in the states of Uttar Pradesh, Andhra Pradesh, Maharashtra, and Punjab, with Uttar Pradesh having the country’s largest water buffalo population. The water buffalo population will likely remain strong over the next decade due to strong growth in the dairy sector: more than 50 percent of India’s milk production is sourced from water buffaloes and the meat sector primarily uses spent dairy water buffaloes for slaughter. Dairy farmers generally sell water buffaloes for slaughter to traders, who in turn are paid by slaughter houses based on carcass weight of the animal. The current price paid by the slaughter houses for purchase of spent adult water buffalo is around Rs. 150-160 per kg; water buffalo male calves are valued at Rs. 130-140 per kg. Year on year CWE prices increased about 8-10 percent. Regarding diseases, foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is a major concern for India’s carabeef trade but there were no news of any major incidences which affected trade in CY 2016. India implements an FMD control program in 351 districts across 13 states and 6 union territories and it is on the list of countries having FMD programs endorsed by the World Organization for Animal Health (OIE).

Consumption

CY 2016 and CY 2017 beef and carabeef consumption estimates are projected at 2.35 and 2.4 million tons CWE on population growth. Due to its affordability, carabeef is the second most consumed animal protein after chicken meat in India. Chicken is the most consumed meat in India as it is cheaper than other meats and is subject to fewer religious prohibitions or cultural taboos. The annual per capita consumption of carabeef is still only around 2 kg, whereas for chicken it is 3.6 kg. Carabeef consumption is reportedly higher in Kerala, Assam, West Bengal, Goa, and Northeastern states. In domestic markets only fresh meat is preferred by consumers.

Trade

Post forecasts CY 2017 carabeef exports at 1.95 million tons CWE, an increase of 5 percent year on year, driven mostly by moderate increases in demand from the Middle East, Africa and Southeast Asia, including the newly opened market of Indonesia. CY 2016 carabeef exports are lowered from 1.95 million tons CWE to 1.85 million tons on the afore-mentioned effect of demonetization. In addition, exports to some of the Middle East and African countries declined in CY 2016 due to economic slowdown and adverse demand conditions, although this slowdown was partly offset by the new exports initiated to Indonesia. Some news media have reported that China has agreed to permit carabeef imports from India, but industry sources indicate that there is no official confirmation on approval of abattoirs, which reportedly must be inspected by China’s quality inspection team.

India’s exports in CY 2016 (through November) were 1.65 million tons CWE, up 3.4 percent year on year. India’s exports in the first 11 months of CY 2016 included 764,843 tons CWE to Vietnam (46.3 percent share) followed by 164,049 tons CWE to Egypt (9.9 percent share), 155,814 tons CWE to Malaysia (9.4 percent share) and 77,598 tons CWE to Saudi Arabia (4.7 percent share). Exports to Indonesia in CY 2016 till November 2016 were 78,607 tons CWE. India mainly exports frozen, boneless carabeef but also exports small volumes of chilled carabeef. Most exported carabeef is sold in wet markets, while a portion is processed into canned meat, sausage, salami, burgers, and other processed food. Some markets, such as the Philippines and Iran, carabeef is further processed to value-added products, while in Egypt and Malaysia it is sold in wet markets.

Policy

Carabeef Meat Production Programs and Policy

For all of India the Department of Animal Husbandry, Dairying and Fisheries (DAHDF) implements programs for dairy development. Although the programs are intended for animals raised for dairy production only, in fact DAHDF’s financial and technical assistance to state governments supports programs which control and monitor animal diseases, including foot-and-mouth disease. These disease-control programs are supplemented by extensive veterinary services and together have helped mitigate animal losses and maintain disease-free status for animals going to slaughter after they cease to be productive for dairy purposes. DAHDF is also presently implementing its National Dairy Plan, which seeks to improve dairy production through breed improvement, artificial insemination, fodder development, and expanding milk procurement systems at the village level. This government dairy development program ensures a sustainable supply of healthy, disease-free animals for slaughter.

The Food Safety and Standards Authority of India (FSSAI) regulates domestic slaughter and meat processing through the regulation entitled Food Safety and Standards Rules and Regulation, 2011 (FSSR). The FSSR also defines standards and regulations for domestic and imported meat products. For exports, the Government of India’s Agricultural and Processed Food Products Export Development Authority (APEDA) approves export-oriented slaughterhouses or meat processing units and provides guidance to industry for sanitary and hygiene standards for products destined for export markets.

Trade Policy

DAHDF regulates all meat product imports through the Livestock Importation Act, 1898. To import meat products, required documentation includes a sanitary import permit issued by DAHDF and a veterinary certificate certified by an exporting country’s competent authority. Beef is regarded as separate and distinct from carabeef, or water buffalo meat. India still prohibits the export and import of beef since cattle slaughter is banned in most Indian states due to religious sensitivities.

All exported meat products must be sourced from abattoirs and meat processing plants registered with APEDA. Export shipments are subject to compulsory microbiological and other testing for the issuance of animal health certificates by the certified GOI agency.


Animal Numbers,Cattle

2015

2016

2017

Market Begin Year

Jan 2015

Jan 2016

Jan 2017

India

USDA

Official

New

Post

USDA

Official

New

Post

USDA

Official

New

Post

Total Cattle Beg.

301100

301100

302600

302600

303350

303600

Dairy Cows Beg.Stocks

125000

125000

127000

127000

129000

129000

Beef Cows Beg.Stocks

0

0

0

0

0

0

Production (Calf Crop)

67000

67000

67500

67500

68500

68500

Total Imports

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Supply

368100

368100

370100

370100

371850

372100

Total Exports

0

0

0

0

0

0

Cow Slaughter

0

0

0

0

0

0

Calf Slaughter

0

0

0

0

0

0

Other Slaughter

37000

37000

38250

38000

39500

39250

Total Slaughter

37000

37000

38250

38000

39500

39250

Loss

28500

28500

28500

28500

28000

28000

Ending Inventories

302600

302600

303350

303600

304350

304850

Total Distribution

368100

368100

370100

370100

371850

372100


Meat, Beef and Veal

2015

2016

2017

Market Begin Year

Jan 2015

Jan 2016

Jan 2017

India

USDA

Official

New

Post

USDA

Official

New

Post

USDA

Official

New


Post

Slaughter (Reference)

37000

37000

38250

38000

39500

39250

Beginning Stocks

0

0

0

0

0

0

Production

4100

4100

4250

4200

4350

4350

Total Imports

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Supply

4100

4100

4250

4200

4350

4350

Total Exports

1806

1806

1850

1850

1925

1950

Human Dom.Cons.

2294

2294

2400

2350

2425

2400

Other Use, Losses

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Dom.Cons.

2294

2294

2400

2350

2425

2400

Ending Stocks

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Distribution

4100

4100

4250

4200

4350

4350