Highlights

China continues to be the largest oilseed importer in the world. In MY15/16, China’s total oilseed imports reached 87.93 million tons (MMT). Chinese total soybean imports hit another record at 83.23 MMT, absorbing 61 percent of total world exports, and 59 percent of total U.S. soybean exports. Post estimates this growing trend in soybean imports will continue and reach 86 MMT in MY16/17, and 89 MMT in MY17/18. Favorable import prices led to record peanuts imports in MY15/16 but are expected to level off. Rising incomes, urbanization and the modernization of the domestic feed and livestock sectors will continue fostering Chinese oilseed consumption. A recent change in government policy has encouraged farmers to plant more oilseeds instead of corn. However, growth in China’s oilseed production remains constrained by limited arable land and stagnant yields. Thus, China’s oilseed production is forecast to rise modestly to 56.25 MMT in MY17/18. In addition, during MY15/16, China imposed registration requirements for grain and oilseed exporters (known as AQSIQ Decree 177). Major exporters continue their efforts to comply with new requirements.

Executive Summary:

China’s limited arable land and stagnant yields continue to hinder growth in domestic oilseed production. Prior to MY15/16, oilseed production was also tempered by government support policies favoring major crops, such as corn. However, as a result of the government’s recent policy change to reduce support to corn producers, China’s total planted area for all oilseed crops is forecast to rise by 1.4 percent to 23.3 million hectares (MHa). Total oilseed production is forecast to rise to 56.25 MMT in MY17/18, up from the estimated 55.3 MMT in MY16/17.

The higher production forecast reflects an expected rise in China’s production of soybeans, peanuts, and cottonseed. This combined increase of about 1.3 MMT will likely be offset by a forecast drop of 0.3 MMT in rapeseed production.

Driven by an increasing domestic demand for meats, eggs, milk, seafood, and vegetable oils, China’s oilseed consumption is forecast to rise to 149.7 MMT in MY17/18 from the estimated 147.1 MMT in MY16/17. Additionally, a modest expansion of the oilseed crushing sector, continued growth in the feed industry, and progress in farm consolidation in the livestock and aquatic sectors are collectively spurring demand and the need for oilseed imports as protein ingredients. As a result of China’s limited domestic production, soybean and rapeseed imports are expected to stay robust.Soybean imports could reach 89 MMT in MY17/18, up significantly from the estimated 86 MMT in MY16/17, and in line with USDA’s official February 2017 estimate. Correspondingly, China’s total oilseed imports are forecast at 93.84 MMT for MY17/18. In MY15/16, Chinese imports of U.S. soybeans reached 28.9 MMT, down from the 29.7 MMT compared to the previous year, and accounted for 35 percent of China’s total soybean imports. Annual imports from the United States are expected to stay strong at about 30 MMT in MY16/17 and MY17/18. However, U.S. soybeans still face fierce competition from South American suppliers.

It is important to note that forecasting China’s meal and oil use, and total oilseed demand remains a challenge as data differs greatly depending on the source. This is particularly true with data pertaining to rapeseed and peanut area and production; soybean use as food or feed; feed and livestock production; and the unknown volume of soybean and vegetable oils reserves.

Oilseeds Situation and Outlook

Growth in Domestic Demand for Oilseeds Exceeds Growth in Domestic Oilseed Production

Overall, the growth in China’s domestic oilseed production continues to lag behind the growth in domestic demand. As a result of the MY14/15 direct subsidy payment to soybean farmers based on a stable target price, and the MY15/16 change in government policy to reduce the level of support to corn producers, China’s total planted area for all oilseed crops is forecast to rise by 1.4 percent to 23.3 million hectares (MHa). Total oilseed production is forecast to rise to 56.25 MMT in MY17/18, up from the estimated 55.3 MMT in MY16/17 but still lower than the total in MY14/15. The higher production forecast reflects an expected rise in soybeans, peanuts, and cottonseed production. This combined increase of about 1.3 MMT will likely be offset by a forecast 0.3 MMT drop in rapeseed production. Inadequate production conditions – from economies of scale, agronomic practices, technology resources and input quality – continue to limit the potential gains in oilseed yields. Meanwhile, Chinese consumption of meat, seafood, vegetable oils, and soybeans for food-processing continues its unrelenting growth, fueled by rising affluence, urbanization, and expanding consumer preferences. In response to these dietary demands, China must complement its domestic oilseed resources with imports, primarily from Brazil, the United States, Argentina and Canada.

China’s soybean area is expected to increase moderately in MY17/18 in response to the government’s policy change to limit grain crops. Lower corn earnings in major soybean-producing provinces are likely to encourage some farmers to plant soybeans in MY17/18. Driven by steady positive earnings received in recent years, the forecast for China’s peanut production is slightly up for MY17/18. Cottonseed production is forecast to recover in MY17/18 in response to higher cotton prices and higher profits in MY16/17. Post forecast for MY17/18 cotton acreage is 3.3 percent higher than the previous year. Conversely, the MY16/17 rapeseed planting area and production are both forecast to fall 3 percent. This is in response to lower farm earnings since the government ended its price support policy for rapeseed in MY15/16.

Oilseed Development Plan For 2020

On August 15, 2016, China’s National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), in collaboration with China’s Ministry of Agriculture (MOA) and the State Forestry Administration published the “National Oilseed Development Plan (2016 to 2020).” The plan sets a target for total oilseed production at 59.8 MMT by 2020 from the 45.4 MMT in 2014. This target is to be achieved through a planted area expansion with an additional area of 4.16 MHa and yield gains through technological advancement.

The plan also highlights that the government will provide support for oilseed production, processing, technical extension and innovation. China has not announced any specific national-level support measures. Soybean acreage recovered moderately in MY16/17 and is expected to increase further in MY17/18 in response to the government’s reduced support to corn. Rapeseed planting continues to fall as profits remain thin and the government has not issued any new support measures. Camellia planting is reportedly being supported by the government and production is expected to grow in the coming years. While steady growth in the domestic oilseed supply is likely to moderately flatten the growth rate of oilseed imports, domestic supplies will not satisfy the rise in demand.

China’s General Agriculture Support Program

In addition to the ongoing commodity-specific price support schemes, China maintains a general agriculture support program. This includes direct payment to grain farmers, and subsidies for seed, fuel/fertilizer, and machinery. Since 2012, this basic support has reportedly stayed stable at about $26 billion a year and is expected to continue at similar levels in the coming years.

Soybeans

Production

Consistent with a forecast 4 percent rise in the soybean planted area and an average yield, Post’s forecast for MY17/18 soybean production is 13.8 MMT, up from the estimated 13.1 MMT in MY16/17. This estimate is slightly higher than the USDA February 2017 official estimate. The expected slight recovery in soybean production is supported by changes in the government’s grain support policy, which lowered corn profits for MY16/17 and encouraged some farmers to plant soybeans.

Over the past seven years, the government’s policy supporting grain prices resulted in smaller soybean planted area in China’s leading-soybean producing regions, the four Northeastern provinces. However, since MY15/16, the government prescribed a lower purchase price for corn which cut corn earnings by an estimated RMB1,500 ($242)/Ha. This is about half of the MY14/15 national average income of RMB3,045 ($495)/Ha. Moreover, in MY16/17, soybeans earnings are estimated to be the same or even higher than corn in the Northeastern provinces. For instance, in MY16/17, the local Hailun City government in Heilongjiang province estimated soybean profits are 7.5 percent higher than corn. Additionally, the government’s “target price-based direct subsidy” for soybeans that has been in force over the last three years is unlikely to change. At minimum, the target price will most likely remain unchanged at RMB4,800 ($722)/ton, or raised in MY17/18. Soybean farmers in the four Northeastern provinces will continue to be compensated based on the difference between the market price and the target price.

The government is also calling for more forage area including silage corn in the Northeast and Northwest regions to ease the pressure of the government’s still high corn stocks. The central government’s plan is to cut corn planting acreage by 50 million mu (or 3.67 MHa) in the “reaphook” shaped regions by year 2020. According to MOA, the 2017 target is to reduce 10 million mu (or 667,000 Ha) of corn area. The “reaphook” shaped regions refer mostly to the bordering regions between crop farming and ranchers in the Northeastern provinces, and the dry and windy regions in the Northwestern provinces. The program covers 13 provinces, with the major adjustment areas located in the four Northeastern provinces.

In some regions in Heilongjiang and Inner Mongolian provinces, crop alternatives to soybeans are limited due to the shorter growing days. Additionally, soybeans are more resilient to stand the cold weather than other more lucrative crops.

Unlike soybean farmers in the four Northeastern provinces, farmers in other provinces are not entitled to the government target price support. However, in general, soybean profits in these provinces are relatively higher than the four Northeastern provinces. In those provinces, soybeans enjoy a premium as a result of convenient delivery and can satisfy the local demand for soybean food use. From MY12/13 to MY16/17, soybean production in these provinces remained stable ranging around 6 to 6.5 MMT per year. In Anhui province, the local official survey showed an increase in planting intentions in MY17/18. This increase is mainly due to soybean’s comparative advantage in terms of lower inputs over competing crops in MY16/17. Also in MY16/17, local farmers in Shandong province reported higher soybean profits compared to corn. With respect to other provinces, Post expects MY17/18 soybean planting intentions to be stable or go up slightly.

Soybean farmers also continue to struggle to boost yields and productivity which have remained constant for several years. Without access to the latest seed technology, Chinese soybean farmers face major impediments to improve productivity. Impediments also include small scale farming and inadequate agronomic practices (such as the lack of proper crop rotation). These conditions are unlikely to change significantly in the near future. Over the last four years, soybean yield in China averaged 1.79 ton/Ha, compared to 2.9 ton/Ha in the United States.

Stocks

Chinese official statistics for stocks are not publicly available. Based on industry sources, China sold about 1.7 MMT of soybean reserves in the middle of 2016. By the end of the year, the sale reduced the government’s soybean reserves to about 4.4 MMT. Post estimates that China’s rise in soybean imports during MY15/16 also contributed to the estimated high carry-out stocks at 16.9 MMT. Depending on the domestic oilseed product market situation, the government may auction the left over older stocks as a means to stabilize any significant changes in the domestic soybean supply and price. MY16/17 ending stocks are expected to adjust down to 15.1 MMT. Given the government’s suspension of direct purchases of domestic oilseeds, and maintenance of a moderate vegetable oil reserve as a market regulating tool, MY17/18 soybean ending stocks are forecast at 15 MMT.

Trade

--Imports

China’s domestic production remains insufficient and unable to meet growing consumption of oilseed products (protein meal and oil). In MY15/16, China continued to dominate the global soybean market and remains the largest importer of soybeans in the world. China’s total soybean imports of 83.23 MMT in MY15/16 were equivalent to 61 percent of total world exports, and 59 percent of total U.S. soybean exports. In the first four months of MY16/17, China’s soybean imports reached 29.7 MMT, up 7.2 percent over the same period last year. Post estimates this growing trend will continue with soybean imports reaching 86 MMT in MY16/17, and 89 MMT in MY17/18.

The Chinese crushing industry’s demand for soybeans continues to be strong. In addition, economic incentives are reportedly driving greater use of imported soybeans for food in the coastal provinces. However, figures capturing this trend are not readily available. As a result, MY17/18 soybean imports are forecast at 89 MMT, up 3 percent from an estimated 86 MMT in MY16/17. Adequate global soybean supplies at lower prices stimulated imports contributing to annual net import growth of 8 MMT in MY14/15, and 4.88 MMT in MY15/16. This also contributed to relatively high ending stocks. It is worth noting that the forecast growing soybean imports are partly supported by the expected drop in DDGS imports in 2017 as China imposed high antidumping duties on U.S. DDGS imports in January 2017.

Brazil continued to be China’s largest soybean supplier in MY15/16 with total exports reaching 42.6 MMT and holding 51 percent share of the market. After hitting a record in MY14/15, China’s imports of U.S. soybeans slowed somewhat to 28.9 MMT in MY15/16 and accounted for 35 percent China’s total imports. Brazil’s weakening currency and Argentina’s lower export taxes are expected to boost more South American soybean exports to China in MY16/17. Post estimates imports of U.S. soybeans to recover slightly to 30 MMT in MY16/17. Chinese crushers have expressed interest in using sustainable soybeans with the prospect to differentiate their finished products. Starting in mid MY14/15, the United States began exporting sustainable soybeans certified under the U.S. Soy Sustainability Certification Protocol (SSAP). . U.S. industry sources report that as of late February 2017, out of China’s total contracted 30.6 MMT of U.S. soybeans in MY16/17, certified U.S. sustainable soy exports to China reached 2.53 MMT, slightly lower than the 3 MMT in MY15/16. That said, as most U.S. soybean producers already participate in certified and audited conservation and nutrient management programs, China stands to become the largest importer of U.S. sustainable soy. Increased interest for sustainable soybeans could create opportunities for U.S. soybean growers to gain market share.

Changes in China’s consumption trends created new challenges in forecasting China’s soybean use/imports as these are generally calculated on a meal and oil based analysis. Industry observers highlight that as a result of price advantage and purchasing convenience, many food processors in the coastal provinces are progressively using more imported soybeans to produce tofu, soy milk and other foods. The direct use of whole soybean as a feed ingredient is also increasing. However, specific consumption data on broader utilization of imported soybeans is not readily available.

--Exports

China’s soybean exports, mostly destined for traditional food use, are forecast at 120,000 tons for MY17/18, unchanged from the estimate in MY16/17. China's soybean export volume remains small and stable. This volume is not expected to change significantly as traditional markets, like Korea and Japan, source food soybeans (both biotech and conventional) from several suppliers, including the United States. In recent years some domestic soybeans have been increasingly processed into protein for exports to EU and Asia. However, specific figures on this trend are currently not available.

Soybean Crushing Sector Continues to Restructure

As of late 2015, industry sources estimated China’s total soybean crush capacity reached 449,000 tons per day with an estimated annual crushing capacity of about 148 MMT; this is based on 11 operational months. China’s total crushing capacity does not appear to have changed significantly in 2016. Based on Post’s estimated crushing volume for MY15/16 of 81 MMT, the utilization rate stood at about 55 percent. This rate is slightly higher than the previous year. Despite the low utilization rate, demand for crushed volume endures. The crushing sector will continue restructuring with new construction and expanded renovations to existing facilities. This will likely contribute to a moderate expansion of the crushing capacity in MY17/18 but not to the extent seen in MY14/15. Post’s estimates crushing volume will increase to 86 MMT in MY16/17, and forecasts it will continue to grow to 87.8 MMT in MY17/18.

Policy

--Changes to Grain Support Policies Continue to Impact Soybean Acreage Soybean acreage is expected to increase moderately in MY17/18 due to the government’s policy favoring less corn area. In an effort to reduce the large and high-priced corn stocks accumulated during the years that the government enforced price supports to corn, in 2016, the government’s corn reserve policy in the four Northeastern provinces was replaced by a new mechanism of “market oriented purchases”. In September, 2016, China’s Grain Bureau announced the “North East Corn Purchase Policy” to normalize domestic supply and demand market mechanisms. This reduced corn profits for MY16/17.

China’s 13th Five Year Agriculture Development Plan (2016-2020) set a target for corn acreage at 500 million mu (or 33.33 MHa) by 2020, down by 50 million mu (8.2 million acres) from 2015 level. In November 2015, MOA released a guideline, instructing farmers to cut corn planting acreage by 50 million mu (or 3.67 MHa) in the “reaphook”- shaped regions by year 2020. This refers mostly to the bordering regions between crop farming and ranchers in the Northeastern provinces and the dry and windy regions in the Northwestern provinces. The program covers 13 provinces, with the major adjustment areas located in the four Northeastern provinces. In 2015, MOA designated potato as a staple grain crop (in addition to rice, corn, and wheat) and planned to expand the potato planting area to about 6.67 MHa by 2020 from the 5.52 MHa in 2015. In February, 2017, the central government announced a plan to cut corn acreage by another 10 million mu (or 667,000 Ha). Substitute crops could include soybeans, sunflower, cash crops, silage corn and potato. As a result of the fall in the government’s grain purchase price, corn profits declined. In some regions the profit gap between corn and soybeans narrowed while in others soybean profits even exceed those for corn. This is likely to encourage a modest increase in soybean acreage in the Northeastern provinces.

--Direct Subsidies for Soybeans Will Continue in MY17/18

Historically, soybean farmers in the Northeastern region have benefited financially from the government’s “minimum price procurement” program. Beginning in MY14/15, the central government enforced a trial program in the four Northeastern provinces by paying a direct subsidy to farmers based on a target price. Under this system, farmers receive a subsidy representing the difference between the market price at harvest and the set target price of RMB4,800 ($762)/ton. The central government provides funds to the four provinces on a production basis. The provincial government then distributes the subsidy to each individual farmer (before the end of the following April) based on the certified planted. In MY15/16, the direct subsidy to farmers ranged from about RMB1,960 ($311)/Ha in Heilongjiang Province to RMB3,000 ($476)/Ha in Lining Province. A similar value is estimated for the direct subsidy in MY16/17. The MY17/18 target price has not been announced but it is most likely to stay the same or even increase. During MY16/17, the Heilongjiang Provincial Government also provided a payment of RMB150/Mu (equivalent to $339/Ha) to farmers who switched from corn to soybeans. This policy is estimated to cover about 6.5 million Mu (0.43 MHa), mainly located in the traditional soybean planted region, and is expected to continue in MY17/18.

--China’s Biotech Approval System Adds Uncertainty to Soybean Trade

China’s non-biotech derived domestic soybean production policy remains unchanged. Domestic soybeans (non-biotech soybeans or soybean protein) are targeted primarily for food use and some are exported at a premium to European and Asian markets. Regarding imported biotech products, MOA maintains an approval system for biotech varieties and renews the list on a periodic basis. The approval system lags behind the pace of international commercialization of new events and adds uncertainty to the soybean trade. USDA continues to work closely with China's MOA requesting the streamlining of China’s approval process as market access is key for trading partners and critical for China's price stability and food security. In addition, China has not yet established a tolerance level for the adventitious presence of unapproved biotech events in imports of bulk grain and products.

--Registration Requirements for Grain and Oilseed Exporters (AQSIQ Decree 177)

In early 2016, China General Administration for Quality Supervision, Inspection and Quarantine (AQSIQ) announced its final Administrative Measures regarding the Inspection and Quarantine for the Entry and Exit of Grain and Oilseeds, also referred to as AQSIQ Decree 177.Implemented in July 2016, this Decree imposes new registration requirements on overseas exporters of bulk commodities, including inspections. After submitting detailed comments through the World Trade Organization in 2015, the United States and the U.S. industry have repeatedly communicated concerns to Chinese officials regarding the Decree’s potential implication on trade. Specific requirements contained in the Decree remain unclear and challenging to adopt for major grain and oilseed exporting countries with complex supply chains.

--USDA and AQSIQ Cooperation

In 2012, USDA and China’s AQSIQ signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) to increase bilateral cooperation in the inspection and quarantine of U.S. soybeans exported to China. As a result, USDA and AQSIQ have conducted joint soybean vessel inspection programs first in March 2013 and two more in November 2014. Information exchanges continued throughout 2015 and 2016 with additional joint programs envisioned as parties deem necessary. These exchanges have increased understanding of inspection systems, quarantine standards, procedures and testing methodologies in both countries. This bilateral cooperation in the areas of inspection and quarantine has significantly facilitated U.S. soybean trade to China.

--The Impact of China-ASEAN Free Trade Zone on Oils Trade Remains Limited

The China-ASEAN Free Trade Agreement (CAFTA) was enacted on January 1, 2010. Under the Agreement, import duties on more than 90 percent of goods imported to China from ASEAN countries were eliminated. According to the 2016 Customs Import and Export Tariffs of China, the duties for palm oil, palm kernel oil, and copra oil remain unchanged from the previous year at 9 percent. In general, Chinese imports of palm oil from ASEAN countries are not expected to grow significantly given the ample supplies of lower-priced domestic crushed soybean oil and rapeseed oil.

Marketing

China’s marketing of domestic soybeans remains unchanged. The majority of domestic soybeans are sold for food processing and locally consumed. Traders sourcing soybeans from the four Northeastern provinces can deliver products to other parts of China though rail and trucks. The marketing pace relies mostly on farmers’ expectations of soybean prices. MY16/17 soybeans is faster than the previous year likely due to slight increase in price. The purchase of domestic soybeans for crushing remains low (mainly in the four Northeastern provinces and Anhui province. Total domestic production of 11.8 MMT is only slightly above the estimated 11.1 MMT of domestic use of soybeans for food in MY15/16. In many coastal provinces, the marketing of domestic soybeans for food use is also increasingly challenged by the use of imported soybeans. Traders of domestic soybeans for food use are usually small to medium size operations and face difficulty in consolidating soybeans from households and villages. Improved highway systems and increased volume of trucked soybeans could facilitate redistribution but would do little to address lower domestic supplies.

Rapeseed

Production

China’s government continues to encourage rapeseed farming as it uses winter idle land and lessens the competition for land with other grain crops. However, due to lower profits and the abolishment of the government’s price support, the MY17/18 rapeseed area is forecast to fall by 3 percent to 6.8 MHa compared to the previous year. Rapeseed production is also expected to drop by 3 percent to 13 MMT. MY16/17 rapeseed production is estimated at 13.5 MMT, supporting the USDA February 2017 official data, but still lower than the CNGOIC production of 14 MMT. MY16/17 rapeseed earnings declined nationwide as the government ended its state purchase of rapeseeds at a higher floor price. The Statistics Bureau in Hubei, the largest rapeseed producing-province, estimates that MY16/17 rapeseed output value per area continued to fall by 2.3 percent. However, profit margins remained almost unchanged from the previous year due to lower production costs, mainly lower prices for fertilizer. Thus, the Bureau reported a 0.6 percent increase in acreage for MY17/18. Other large rapeseed-producing provinces reported decreased profit margins in MY16/17. For instance, Sichuan province’s profit margins are down 15.5 percent due to lower yield. Those in Anhui province are estimated down 44 percent as a result of low yields and increased production costs in MY16/17. The Jiangsu Agriculture Commission estimated MY17/18 rapeseed acreage is 20 percent smaller than the previous year. A local survey indicated MY17/18 acreage in Anhui is expected to fall by 16.3 percent from the previous year. Currently, CNGOIC estimated MY17/18 rapeseed acreage planted in winter is down 5 percent compared to last year. Conversely, in the northwest provinces the MY17/18 spring rapeseed area is projected to stay generally stable. According to industry sources, growth in the MY17/18 winter crop is rated as above average due to generally favorable moisture and temperature conditions since late 2016.

Although China’s National Statistics Bureau (NSB) has not yet released the MY16/17 rapeseed production, its number is often regarded by most industry sources as over-estimated. Compared to the CNGOIC estimated MY16/17 rapeseed production of 14 MMT, another independent source made an extremely low estimate of 5.22 MMT for MY16/17. Their estimate is based on firsthand anecdotal information from farmers and the market; their forecast production for MY17/18 stands at 5.83 MMT. Since MY12/13, the gap between the NSB and the industry rapeseed production estimate has increased significantly, with an average annual difference of more than 5 MMT. Since the government ceased purchases of rapeseed at floor prices, this discrepancy in estimates is expected to widen in MY15/16 and beyond.

Trade

Rapeseed imports in MY17/18 are forecast to recover to 4.3 MMT from the estimated 4.1 MMT in MY16/17. Forecast import growth is mostly supported by a forecast low domestic production but challenged by fluctuations in global supplies. Compared to the record imports of 5.04 MMT in MY13/14, rapeseed imports fell to 4 MMT in MY15/16. The drop is mainly attributed to China’s stricter policy on foreign matter (FM) requirements on imported rapeseed. Relatively tight rapeseed global supplies raised rapeseed prices compared to other oilseeds. In addition, the sale of rapeseed oil reserves also discouraged imports during MY15/16. In MY15/16, Canada remained the largest rapeseed supplier to China accounting for 99 percent of market share in MY15/16. The record imports in MY13/14 were primarily driven by the rapid expansion of China’s crushing capacity particularly along the coastal provinces of Fujian, Guangdong and Guangxi. A growing realization that domestic production may be lower than reported also encouraged imports in MY14/15. In light of the declining domestic production and a tentative agreement on FM requirements with China’s largest rapeseed supplier, China’s industry analysts believe rapeseed imports will recover in MY17/18. These imports are expected to meet domestic demand for rapeseed products and satisfy the domestic crushing capacity.

Crushing Capacity

By the end of 2015, China’s rapeseed crushing capacity surpassed 40 MMT per year (some plants crush both rapeseed and soybeans) with a utilization rate of less than 40 percent. Total crushing capacity remained generally stable in 2016. Given a declining domestic rapeseed supply, investors will have less incentive to expand the crushing capacity further in MY16/17 and MY17/18.

Policy

Although some provinces still provide some limited subsidies to their rapeseed farmers, the government stopped its price support for rapeseed production in MY15/16. Since then, rapeseed prices decreased dramatically. Prior to MY15/16, government policies encouraged rapeseed production through a “minimum price purchase program” and a direct seed subsidy. In MY14/15, the government maintained the rapeseed purchase floor price at RMB5,100 ($822)/ton. This price was significantly higher about RMB800 to 1,000/ton (or $130 to $163/ton) than the price for imported rapeseed. Currently, the government maintains a planting seed subsidy of RBM150 ($24)/Ha. Citing phytosanitary concerns, China’s rapeseed import policy of restricting entry of imports to only non-rapeseed producing regions remains unchanged. However, the establishment of rapeseed crushing plants in non-rapeseed producing areas has minimized this policy’s impact on imports. Additionally, AQSIQ has reached agreements with Russia and Mongolia on rapeseed imports for crushing.

Peanuts

Production

MY17/18 peanut production is forecast at 17.4 MMT, slightly up from the estimated 17 MMT in MY16/17. Similarly, CNGOIC estimated a higher production at 17.7 MMT for MY16/17. Driven by strong domestic demand for peanut products, peanut farming has been the most profitable crop in many peanut-producing provinces. NSB’s released MY15/16 production stood at 16.4 MMT, similar to the previous year. In 2016, peanut production appeared to lag behind demand, driving the domestic peanut price high and triggering more than half million tons of imports in 2016. A steady growing demand for peanut products both as food (various snacks and milk etc.) and for cooking (oil) will encourage the expansion of peanut acreage. However, additional gains are constrained by limited land resources.

Trade

--Imports

In MY15/16, China’s peanut imports (primarily for crushing) skyrocketed to a record 541,000 tons compared to 161,000 tons in MY14/15 and 74,000 tons in MY13/14. The surge is primarily due to more advantageous prices for imported peanuts. Imports of peanuts for food use remain low due to sufficient domestic supplies.

Senegal is China’s main peanut supplier as it is exempted from Chinese import duties. Senegal peanut prices also remain very competitive compared to other suppliers such as Argentina, India and the United States. In MY15/16, Chinese imports of shelled peanuts were 202,000 tons. Senegal supplied 59.5 percent of all shelled peanuts followed by Argentina supplying 22.5 percent. Chinese imports of in-shell peanuts were 272,000 tons, primarily from the United States. The import boom is mainly driven by price. Senegal shelled peanuts stood at about $840/ton while U.S. in-shell peanuts from the United States averaged at about $550/ton. By comparison, China’s price for peanuts/shelled for oil crushing ranging from RMB8,400 ($1,270/ton) to 8,700 ($1,320)/ton. These imports remain competitive compared to domestic supplies even after a combined 15 percent import duty and 13 percent VAT. Imports of U.S. in-shell peanuts slowed from October to December 2016 but rebounded to 16,800 tons in January 2017 (with the unit price increased only slightly). The rebound was likely as a result of a Chinese trader’s trip to the United States in October 2016. China’s total imports of shelled peanuts stood at 16,000 tons during the first 4 months of MY16/17 down from the 23,000 tons in the previous year.

The majority of imported peanuts are crushed for oil. A small percentage may be used for food/snacks provided the product meets quality requirements. Peanut import shipments usually decline during July through September as the crushers try to avoid crushing during the hot season to guarantee the quality of the oil. Industry traders speculate that during the past two marketing years, higher domestic peanut prices may be indicative of a slightly lower peanut production than what is officially reported. It is too early to tell whether the recent upward pressure on domestic prices is in fact a result of tighter supplies or an increase in domestic demand.

China’s imports of peanut oil continued high at 113,400 tons in MY 15/16 from the average 70,000 tons prior to MY14/15. Peanut oil imports are forecast at 100,000 tons for MY16/17, and forecast to stay unchanged in MY17/18 (equivalent to 315,000 tons of in-shell peanuts). Notwithstanding, peanut imports could potentially increase as Chinese crushers prefer to import seeds to crush rather than import peanut oil. In general, the share of imported peanuts remains small compared to China’s overall consumption. China’s overall demand for peanut products supports relatively higher imports. However, peanut imports could fall significantly if the price gap between domestic and global prices fails to offset the duty and VAT. Given the forecast increase in domestic peanut production, it is unlikely that imports of peanuts will sustain the record levels seen in MY15/16. Correspondingly, Post estimates peanut imports will level off at 450,000 in MY16/17 tons and forecast to stay unchanged for MY17/18.

--Exports

Chinese peanut exports are expected to grow to 550,000 tons in MY 17/18 from the estimated 500,000 tons in MY16/17. Exports totaled at 484,000 tons in MY15/16. A slight growth in production may strengthen exports in search for better profits. However, strong domestic demand together with strict import conditions in some major export markets will impede any significant growth in exports.

Policy

Beginning in MY 10/11, in an effort to stimulate production and improve the domestic self-sufficiency rate for vegetable oil, the Chinese government implemented a planting seed purchase subsidy program for peanuts of about RMB150 ($24)/Ha. This policy is expected to continue in MY17/18. As mentioned above, the government’s reduced price support for grain and cotton appear to have encouraged additional peanut acreage in MY17/18 in some regions.

Cottonseed

Production

Cottonseed production in MY17/18 is forecast to increase to 9.1 MMT, up from the estimated 8.9 MMT in the previous year. MY17/18 cotton planting area is expected to increase by 3.3 percent from the previous year in response to an increase in domestic cotton prices resulting from moderately recovered profits in MY16/17. Since MY14/15, the government replaced a four-year-old “minimum price cotton purchase program” with a “target price-based direct subsidy.” The new policy, however, favors farmers in Xinjiang over farmers in the Yangtze River and Yellow River regions. Hence, the cotton planted area declined sharply MY15/16 and MY16/17, particularly in the Yangtze River and Yellow River regions. Post forecast MY17/18 cotton acreage is 3.3 percent higher than the previous year. A Chinese leading industry survey showed that in MY16/17 there was a slight decrease in production costs both in Xinjiang and other cotton –producing provinces despite a slight increase in land rental prices. Most industry insiders believe that in MY16/17, cotton profits improved nationwide compared to the previous year, and were even higher in the Yellow River Region compared to other competing crops such as corn and soybeans. This improvement in cotton profits is attributed to the fact that the majority of cotton planting is done in self-owned land and that cotton seed prices increased. In addition, cotton remains the most reliable and safe cash crop in Xinjiang while in all other provinces cotton is only planted in those regions where cotton has been traditionally planted and profits from alternative crops tend to be low. A preliminary planting intention survey conducted by an industry source indicated that MY17/18 cotton acreage is up 2.2 percent from the previous year. Another source’s survey results showed cotton planting intentions recovered in all three cotton-producing regions in MY17/18, specifically Xinjiang up 4 percent, the Yangtze River region up 3.5 percent, and the Yellow River region up 1.4 percent, respectively.

Trade

China’s domestic cotton seed production continues to fall but total volume remains comparatively high. Nonetheless, increased uses for cottonseed, such as in mushroom farming, have supported cottonseed imports since MY13/14. Given the adequate supply of other oilseed products at competitive prices, sporadic imports of cottonseed may continue in MY16/17 and MY17/18. Imports of U.S. cottonseed must complete a Pest Risk Assessment before gaining access to the Chinese market. Currently, USDA continues to engage China’s import authority on this process.

Other oilseeds

Camellia planting in southern provinces is booming. In the 13th Five Year Development Plan for Oilseeds, China’s government set a target to increase the camellia planting area to 4.67 MHa by 2020 from the estimated 3.65 MHa in 2014, and increase the camellia oil supply to 1 MMT by 2020 from the estimated 500,000 tons in 2014. The plan also proposes to develop woody oilseed plants in 800 counties and increase planted area to 13.3 MHa from the current 8 MHa. Woody oilseed plants include camellia, walnut, and oil peony. Grown mainly on hilly lands in southern provinces of Hunan, Jiangxi and Guangxi, these woody plants pose no competition for arable land. Industry sources estimate total camellia oil production continued on a growing trend during 2015 and 2016. However, no official data is available. The annual target increase of 100,000 tons for camellia oil supply, together with oil from other woody plants, satisfies high-end consumers’ demand and could reduce the growth of China’s imports of oilseed products.

Oilseed Meal Situation and Outlook

Total Meals

MY17/18 protein meal (including fish meal) production is forecast at 88.2 MMT, up 1.9 percent over the 86.6 MMT during the previous year. This rise is attributable to the increased crushing of imported soybeans. MY17/18 total protein meal supply is forecast to reach 89.4 MMT. This forecast includes 1 MMT of meal imports, primarily fish meal.

Total protein meal consumption in MY17/18 is forecast at 87.6 MMT, up 1.64 MMT or 1.9 percent over MY16/17 due to steady demand for industrialized feed from the livestock and aquaculture sectors. (MY17/18 all protein meal use converted into soybean meal/SBM equivalent is 85 MMT, up 2 percent over the 83.3 MMT in MY16/17). The estimated 66.3 MMT soybean meal (SBM) use for MY16/17, which is 4 MMT or 6.4 percent up from the previous year, is partly to substitute a forecast large supply gap of DDGS as a result of China’s high anti-dumping duty on U.S. imports imposed since January 2017. China’s DDGS imports averaged over 5 MMT per year in recent 3 years. SBM will continue to dominate the protein meal use in MY17/18, accounting for 77.4 percent of total meal consumption followed by rapeseed meal at 11.9 percent and peanut meal at 4.3 percent.

Consumption Outlook

In general, China’s high GDP growth (up 6.7 percent in 2016) continues to increase per capita disposal income and boosting demand for more and better quality animal products. The NSB reports that in 2015, China’s urban per capita consumption of animal products stood slightly higher at 63.5 Kg and milk consumption at 17.1 Kg. On the other hand, in rural areas per capita consumption of animal products was significantly lower at 45.7 Kg and milk consumption at 6.3 Kg. Nevertheless, Chinese meat consumption is still less than nearby markets such as Taiwan, whose combined per capita consumption of pork and poultry reached 71.2 Kg in 2011 (Taiwan Grain and Feed Annual 2013). Additionally, potential increases in protein consumption among the 589.73 million people living in rural areas (out of the total population of 1.3 billion by 2016) open opportunities for higher demand for protein meal. The overall increase in demand for meat and seafood is also fueled by population growth and urbanization.

China’s average annual net population growth was 6.8 million. The government’s amendment to the “one child policy” in 2016 pushed net population growth to 8.09 million in 2016 and this trend is expected to continue in 2017 and beyond. Additionally, rapid urbanization continues with annual urban population growth averaging 20.1 million from 2011 to 2015 and 21.82 million new urban residents added in 2016. Greater demand for meats and seafood will continue to fuel animal production and the need for feed. Potential growth along the value chain signals encouraging prospects for oilseed meals in the coming years.

MOA estimates China’s animal production growth will continue but at a lower rate during the coming years along with a slower GDP growth rate (compared to before 2015) and an increasingly aging population. Given a significant increase in production cost and environmental concerns, the priority for MOA and the industry is to upgrade productivity, efficiency, and quality. The following table shows China’s rapid expansion of animal scale farming in recent years and MOA’s target by 2020. MOA estimated the overall animal scale farming rate averaged about only 40 percent in 2015 and plans to raise it to 50 percent by 2020.

Steady growth and advancement of the animal production sector continues to drive industrialized feed production. The table above shows MOA’s 13th Five Year (2016-2020) Agriculture Development Target for animal product by 2020. Specifically, by 2020 all meat, milk and cultured aquatic production is targeted to reach 90 MMT, 41 MMT and 52.4 MMT, respectively. This requires an average annual growth rate at 4.3, 5.9 and 6 percent from the 2015 production level. While MOA’s egg production is targeted at about 30 MMT by 2020, the NSB data for 2016 has already hitting 30.95 MMT. MOA’s 13th Five Year Feed Industry Development Plan (2016-2020) set a target feed production of 220 MMT by 2020 with annual growth of 4 MMT from 2016 through 2020. Given the poultry sector’s industrialized feed utilization rate exceeding 90 percent, major feed demand growth will be driven by increasing scale farming for swine and ruminant animals. To achieve the target for animal products, MOA’s forecast for newly added demand for protein meal is 1 to 1.25 MMT per year during 2016 to 2020.

CNGOIC’s estimate for 2016 compound feed production is down 0.5 percent to 173.1 MMT compared to the previous year, while concentrate feed is up 1.5 percent to 19.9 MMT. Based on CNGOIC estimates and converting the concentrate into its compound feed equivalent, total feed production is 272.6 MMT, slightly higher than 2015. Over the last two years, feed production has been affected by weak feed consumption. Since 2013, an outbreak of animal diseases and negative swine profits lowered the inventory of sows and swine through 2016.

The government’s strict environmental regulations further contributed to the significant fall in swine/sow inventory in eastern provinces. More than 20 provinces/municipalities (including Guangdong, Zhejiang, Shanghai, Fujian, Hubei and Anhui etc.) have implemented measures by establishing “non-animal farming zones” or intensified waste treatment supervision. This forced the closure or relocation of animal farms in these regions in 2016. As result, swine inventory fell by 8 percent or 36 million heads last year. Most of the new swine farming capacity is expected to be added in the four Northeastern provinces. The “Environmental Protection Taxation Law” passed at the end of 2016 will require animal farms of a certain scale (yearly slaughtered pigs of 500 or above for a scale swine farm) to pay an environmental protection tax starting in 2018. If enforced, this tax will further increase costs in swine farming. Despite sustained high swine profits since October 2015, swine inventory recovered slower than expected. This is also reflected in the NSB pork data highlighting a continuous fall in pork production from the 56.71 MMT in 2014 to the 54.87 MMT in 2015, and the 52.99 MMT in 2016. Conversely, NSB data for 2014 to 2016, showed steady growth in egg, poultry meat, and cultured aquatic production. However, driven by high swine profits, the swine sector is expected to add sow and inventory, and pork production is also expected to recover in 2017. Industry insiders believe that by the end of 2016, sow restocking was almost completed adding a supply of piglets for 2017. Positive swine profits will continue but likely to fall to RMB300 ($45)/head. Investment in large-scale swine production is popular leading to more demand of industrialized feed. In addition, traditional small-scale operations are phasing out the use of self-mix feed for alternative feeds to improve productivity and efficiency. Total SBM inclusion in feed is expected to strengthen along with the growth of industrialized feed production. Despite the ups and downs in China’s animal production sectors in recent years, total yearly feed production trended upward which might partly be explained by the restructuring and advancing of the animal and feed production sectors. Post expects the feed production growing trend to sustain in 2017.

The following table shows an estimate for feed needed for pork, egg and poultry meat production based on a normal feed conversion rate. The estimated feed needed to produce these three major animal products are on average 7 MMT higher than the MOA total feed production. Combining all animal production, China’s total feed consumption largely exceeds MOA’s official feed production.

Protein meal use is also likely to receive a boost by fewer imports of distiller's dried grains (DDGS) in 2017 and beyond. On January 11, 2017, China’s Ministry of Commerce (MOFCOM) announced it is final ruling on anti-dumping (AD) on DDGS from the United States by requiring importers to pay a combined duty and value added tax rate up to 91.26 percent of CNF price effective on January 12, 2017. This is expected to reduce DDGS imports from the United States dramatically if not completely. Over the last three years, the United States supplied almost all of China’s DDGS imports which averaged 5.5 MMT per year. As a result of market uncertainty during China’s anti-dumping investigation, DDGs imports from the United States plummeted from 6.8 MMT in 2015 to 3.1 MMT in 2016. China feed industry insiders believe that soybeans are still the best replacement for DDGs although DDGS can be utilized as both energy and protein ingredients. Except for fish meal, protein meal trade has been unstable in recent years. Sporadic imports/exports of some protein meals will continue in the foreseeable future. Both feed mills and crushing plants may choose to trade between nearby countries rather than domestic provinces to regulate the regional supply/demand. The difference in market prices, cost effectiveness, and more importantly ease of transport are factors impacting trade decisions. With the exceptions of SBM exports, total trade volume of other oilseed meals are expected to be insignificant in China’s huge protein meal matrix.

Soybean Meal

Production

Soybean Meal (SBM) continues to dominate the protein meal complex with MY17/18 production forecast at 69.5 MMT, up 2.1 percent over the estimated 68.1 MMT in MY16/17. MY17/18 SBM consumption is forecast at 67.8 MMT from the 66.3 MMT in the previous year. It is worth noting that the high net growth of 4 MMT in SMB consumption in MY16/17 compared to the previous year is primarily prompted by the expected shortage of DDGS supplies. Other protein meal production remains stagnant. Imports of fish meal are constrained by limited supplies and relatively high prices. Imports of other meals are not attractive due to their relatively low price to nutrition value coupled with adequate domestic SBM supplies. SBM price trended upward in 2016 with December prices up 25 percent from January despite the record soybean imports and crushing volume. This signals that SBM demand continues to be strong.

Trade

In MY17/18, China’s SBM exports are expected to stay relatively stable but down slightly from last year at 1.8 MMT from the estimated 1.85 MMT in MY16/17. SBM exports recovered in MY13/14 driven by China’s large crushing capacity and excessive production. This increased the feasibility for exports to nearby markets such as Japan, Vietnam and Korea. Chinese SBM exports will continue in limited volume as crushing plants/traders take advantages of the differences in price and delivery distance with foreign markets. Chinese SBM imports have been minimal in recent years because of its large domestic SBM production. In general, SBM trade remains insignificant in proportion to China’s large domestic consumption.

Rapeseed Meal

Post’s forecast for MY17/18 rapeseed meal imports is 200,000 tons, unchanged from the MY16/17 estimate but lower than the 359,000 tons in MY15/16 (likely due to a fall in rapeseed imports). Domestic rapeseed meal consumption continues to be driven primarily by the growing aquaculture sector. Rapeseed meal imports will continue but at a lower level as China’s large rapeseed crushing industry favors rapeseed imports instead of rapeseed meal. Rapeseed meal exports remain small and in general rapeseed meal trade insignificant.

Fishmeal

Production

Post’s MY17/18 forecast for China’s domestic fishmeal production stands at about 0.44 MMT. Industry sources differ regarding the data on domestic fish meal production as the statistics can be based on different raw materials used and quality.

Imports

Fishmeal imports are projected at 1 MMT for MY17/18, unchanged from the MY16/17 estimate. This reflects China’s average consumption level for fish meal by the large and expanding aquaculture sector and small domestic fishmeal production. China’s fish meal import growth is increasingly constrained by a stagnant global fish meal supply and strengthening price. During 2016, Peru remained China’s largest fishmeal supplier at 436,000 tons and accounted for 41.8 percent of China’s total fish meal imports. Imports from the United States in 2016 rose from the 91,900 tons in 2015 to 114,000 tons, most likely due to tight supplies in other countries.

Oil Situation and Outlook

Post’s MY17/18 forecast for total vegetable oil consumption is up 2 percent (a net growth of 679,000 tons) to 35 MMT compared to the previous year. As mentioned above, China’s 6.7 percent GDP growth in 2016 and forecast 6.5 percent growth in 2017 continues is expected to increase consumers’ disposable income. Fast urbanization and population growth will also fuel demand for more vegetable oil. NSB statistics show that in the recent three years, vegetable oil consumption for urban consumers grew slightly. However, annual per capita vegetable oil consumption in rural areas is still 1.4 Kg lower than in urban areas. Despite the government’s restrictions on hosting banquets/meals, in 2016 China’s catering industry revenue grew 6.7 percent over the previous year. Growth in consumption of vegetable oils among rural residents and more consumers dining out are expected to encourage demand for more vegetable oils in 2017 and beyond.

MY17/18 total oil supply is forecast at 38.7 MMT, similar to the estimated level in MY16/17. Given the increased use of imported soybeans and rapeseeds for crushing, total vegetable oil production for MY17/18 is forecast at 27.2 MMT, up 1.6 percent from the MY16/17 estimate. In MY17/18, soybean oil will continue to be the primary vegetable oil in China, accounting for 57.8 percent of total oil production, followed by rapeseed oil (24.8 percent) and peanut oil (10.9 percent). It is worth noting that China’s combined production of specialty oils, including camellia oil and sesame oil and other small oil such as corn oil and rice oil, is increasing along with diversified consumer demand. As a result, specialty oils are gaining market share from other vegetable oils.

In MY17/18, domestic consumption of oil for food-use is forecast to grow 1.9 percent to 32.9 MMT from MY16/17. Similarly, domestic consumption of oil for industrial use (e.g. cosmetics, feed, etc.) is forecast to increase by a steady 2.4 percent to 2.15 MMT in MY17/18.

MY17/18 total oil imports are forecast at 7.2 MMT, slightly down from the previous year. In general, adequate availability of domestic vegetable oil will hinder import growth of vegetable oils. However, this is not the case for specialty oils such as palm oil (not produced domestically), sunflower seed oil (domestic supply limited) and olive oil. Palm oil continues to dominate vegetable oil imports and is forecast to be stable at 5 MMT in MY16/17 and MY17/18. Growth in palm oil imports is increasingly impacted by stagnant demand from the instant noodle industry, and adequate supplies of other vegetable oils at more competitive prices.

Taking into account the strong forecast for imports of soybeans and rapeseed, in MY17/18 imports of both soybean oil and rapeseed oil are forecast at 500,000 tons and 610,000 tons, respectively. Imports of soybean oil and rapeseed oil are not expected to lead imports but only to make up supply differences when prices for imported oil are competitive.

The wholesale price for major vegetable oils increased rapidly towards the end of 2016. The price difference between palm oil and soy oil narrowed to 8 percent in December 2016 compared to 23 percent in January 2016. Palm oil consumption could be constrained as there is less incentive for blending palm oil with other oils as “salad oil.” It is should be mentioned that forecasting trends in China’s vegetable oil market remains a challenge given the differing data on domestic rapeseed production and the unknown volume of vegetable oil reserves. In recent years, some industry sources estimate the actual yearly production of rapeseed to be several million tons lower than the official number in recent years. Based on currently available data, the forecast for China’s per capita vegetable oil consumption in MY16/17 appears to have reached the level of more industrialized economies such as Taiwan. This appears to be an overestimation and not necessarily an accurate representation of the actual market situation. If the volume of domestic rapeseed continues to be overestimated, forecasting China’s vegetable oils trends will present an even greater challenge in the coming years. The government sold 1.88 MMT out of the estimated 6.4 MMT of rapeseed oil reserves from October 2016 to the end of February 2017. From time to time, the government rotates (purchases or sells) oil reserves to regulate the domestic vegetable oil supply and price. As a result of government’s sale of vegetable oil reserves, total vegetable oil stocks are expected to fall to 3.5 MMT by the end of MY17/18. As the reserves continue to age, there will be more pressure for the government to hold auctions more frequently. This may create further uncertainty in the Chinese vegetable oil market in 2017.

Soybean Oil

As a result of increased crushing of imported soybeans, MY17/18 soybean oil production is forecast at 15.7 MMT, up 2 percent from last year’s estimate. Soybean oil remains the dominant vegetable oil, and will account for 45.7 percent of domestic vegetable oil consumption in MY17/18. However, soybean oil consumption growth is affected by consumer’s sensitivity regarding biotechnology despite government assurances on the safety of all approved biotech products.

In MY17/18, soybean oil imports are forecast to be weak at 500,000 tons due to adequate domestic production. Imports of U.S. soybean oil are expected to be 100,000 tons in MY17/18.

Palm Oil

MY17/18 palm oil imports are forecast at 5 MMT, unchanged from the previous year estimate. This level is higher than MY15/16 as a result of increased global supplies which may lead to more favorable prices. China’s palm oil imports peaked in MY12/13 at 6.59 MMT in response to lower prices. Palm oil imports fell in MY15/16 given relatively tight supplies and an increasing supply of competing vegetable oils at competitive price in China market.

With increases in palm oil prices, the blending of palm oil with other vegetable oils for cooking also decreases. As mentioned above, the food processing industry in China uses large amounts of palm oil in processed foods, especially instant noodles. However, due to more choices for consumers, China’s rapid growth of instant noodle production has leveled off since 2014 and the 2015 production was down by 8.54 percent compared to the previous year. Instant noodle production for 2016 is not available but unlikely to grow. Taking into account the saturated instant noodle market, further expansion of palm oil use by the instant noodle industry is unlikely in the near term.

Changes in Vegetable Oil Import Policy

On January 1, 2013, AQSIQ implemented additional import inspection requirements for edible and crude vegetable oils. AQSIQ’s clarification on specific items to be certified and the laboratories qualified for providing such test reports and certificates remains vague. There are no alerts of trade disruptions related to this issue.

Under China’s 2015 Food Safety Law, there are new requirements instructing importers to review relevant documents provided by their foreign suppliers (exporters and producers). Correspondingly, in 2015, AQSIQ issued a draft measure suggesting that the imported food products that fall in seven designated categories must have on-site inspection. Hence importers are required to conduct on-site inspection of the exporters as well as producers. The draft also recommends punishment in the case of importers’ failure to comply with the outlined requirements. The “Catalogue of Products that Must Have On-site Inspection” includes bulk vegetable oil among other products. Details on the draft remain vague but Chinese authorities have indicated that this will likely affect all vegetable oils imports including crude and consumer-ready oils. AQSIQ has not finalized the draft and has not notified the World Trade Organization of this measure. Post continues to monitor this development.

Total Oilseeds

2015/16

2016/17

2017/18

USDA

Official

Estimate

New

USDA

Official

Estimate

New

USDA

Official

Estimate

New

Crush

119,4

118,805

123,07

122,669

0

124,92

Extr. Rate, 999.9999

0

Beginning Stocks

0

0

0

0

0

0

Production

83,683

83,246

86,806

86,571

0

88,194

MY Imports

1,428

1,426

1,27

1,27

0

1,251

MY Imp. from U.S.

114

114

90

100

0

100

MY Imp. from the EC

5

9

5

5

0

6

TOTAL SUPPLY

85,111

84,672

88,076

87,841

0

89,445

MY Exports

2,05

2,03

1,977

1,923

0

1,883

MY Exp. to the EC

39

214

39

194

0

194

Industrial Dom. Cons.

1,652

1,652

1,7

1,702

0

1,753

Food Use Dom. Cons.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Feed Waste Dom. Cons.

81,409

80,99

84,399

84,216

0

85,809

TOTAL Dom. Consumption

83,061

82,642

86,099

85,918

0

87,562

Ending Stocks

0

0

0

0

0

0

TOTAL DISTRIBUTION

85,111

84,672

88,076

87,841

0

89,445

Calendar Year Imports

1,212

1,604

1,25

1,266

0

1,26

Calendar Year Imp. U.S.

114

114

90

100

0

100

Calendar Year Exports

1,975

2,012

1,927

1,973

0

1,965

Calendar Year Exp. to U.S.

20

86

0

50

0

50

SBM Equivalent

80,154

79,816

83,556

83,345

0

84,983

Total Oils

Total Oils

2015/16

2016/17

2017/18

USDA

Estimate

USDA

Estimate

USDA

Estimate

Official

New

Official

New

Official

New

Crush

118,3

117,705

121,97

121,469

0

123,72

Extr. Rate, 999.9999

0

Beginning Stocks

5,247

5,247

4,62

4,85

0

4,35

Production

26,292

26,122

26,6

26,736

0

27,16

MY Imports

7,17

7,17

7,535

7,24

0

7,2

MY Imp. from U.S.

100

23

100

123

0

103

MY Imp. from the EC

0

41

0

51

0

50

TOTAL SUPPLY

38,709

38,539

38,755

38,826

0

38,71

MY Exports

116

116

126

118

0

168

MY Exp. to the EC

0

0

0

0

0

0

Industrial Dom. Cons.

2

2,05

2,05

2,1

0

2,15

Food Use Dom. Cons.

31,973

31,523

32,979

32,258

0

32,887

Feed Waste Dom. Cons.

0

0

0

0

0

0

TOTAL Dom. Consumption

33,973

33,573

35,029

34,358

0

35,037

Ending Stocks

4,62

4,85

3,6

4,35

0

3,505

TOTAL DISTRIBUTION

38,709

38,539

38,755

38,826

0

38,71

Calendar Year Imports

7,41

6,803

7,575

7,36

0

7,37

Calendar Year Imp. U.S.

104

104

104

103

0

103

Calendar Year Exports

122

123

126

118

0

117

Calendar Year Exp. to U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Soybeans

2015\16

2016/17

2017/18

USDA

Official

Estimate

New

USDA

Official

Estimate

New

USDA

Official

Estimate

New

Area Planted

6,6

6,506

6,2

7,15

0

7,45

Area Harvested

6,506

6,506

7,2

7,15

0

7,45

Beginning Stocks

17,009

17,009

16,91

16,91

0

15,09

Production

11,785

11,785

12,9

13,1

0

13,8

MY Imports

83,23

83,23

86

86

0

89

MY Imp. from U.S.

28,5

28,91

30

30

0

30

MY Imp. from EU

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Supply

112,024

112,024

115,81

116,01

0

117,89

MY Exports

114

114

150

120

0

120

MY Exp. to EU

10

10

10

10

0

11

Crush

81,3

81

86,5

86

0

87,8

Food Use Dom. Cons.

10,8

11,1

11,3

11,3

0

11,4

Feed Waste Dom. Cons.

2,9

2,9

3

3,5

0

3,6

Total Dom. Cons.

95

95

100,8

100,8

0

102,8

Ending Stocks

16,91

16,91

14,86

15,09

0

14,97

Total Distribution

112,024

112,024

115,81

116,01

0

117,89

CY Imports

83

83,232

86

86

0

87,5

CY Imp. from U.S.

30,5

33,66

30

30

0

30,5

CY Exports

150

150

150

150

0

10

CY Exp. to U.S.

70

50

70

50

0

45

Rapeseed

Rapeseed

2015/16

2016/17

2017/18

USDA

Official

Estimate

New

USDA

Official

Estimate

New

USDA

Official

Estimate

New

Area Planted

0

7,3

0

7

0

6,8

Area Harvested

7,534

7,3

7

7

0

6,8

Beginning Stocks

1,499

1,499

1,34

1,109

0

909

Production

14,931

14,3

13,5

13,5

0

13,1

MY Imports

4,011

4,011

3,6

4,1

0

4,3

MY Imp. from U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

MY Imp. from EU

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Supply

20,441

19,81

18,44

18,709

0

18,309

MY Exports

1

1

0

0

0

0

MY Exp. to EU

0

0

0

0

0

0

Crush

18,5

18,1

16,6

17,2

0

17,2

Food Use Dom. Cons.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Feed Waste Dom. Cons.

600

600

600

600

0

600

Total Dom. Cons.

19,1

18,7

17,2

17,8

0

17,8

Ending Stocks

1,34

1,109

1,24

909

0

509

Total Distribution

20,441

19,81

18,44

18,709

0

18,309

CY Imports

4,2

3,565

3,6

4,3

0

4,4

CY Imp. from U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

CY Exports

0

1

0

0

0

0

CY Exp. to U.S.

0

1

0

0

0

0

Peanuts

Peanuts

Oilseed, Peanut (1000 tons; 1000 Ha)

2015/16

2016/17

2017/18

USDA

Estimate

USDA

Estimate

USDA

Estimate

Official

New

Official

New

Official

New

Area Planted

4,6

4,6

4,7

4,75

0

4,85

Area Harvested

4,616

4,6

4,75

4,75

0

4,85

Beginning Stocks

0

0

0

0

0

0

Production

16,44

16,44

17

17

0

17,4

MY Imports

541

541

600

450

0

450

MY Imp. from U.S.

0

292

0

100

0

100

MY Imp. from EU

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Supply

16,981

16,981

17,6

17,45

0

17,85

MY Exports

484

484

500

500

0

550

MY Exp. to EU

50

50

50

50

0

50

Crush

8,7

8,85

9,15

9,1

0

9,3

Food Use Dom. Cons.

6,797

6,647

6,95

6,8

0

6,9

Feed Waste Dom. Cons.

1

1

1

1,05

0

1,1

Total Dom. Cons.

16,497

16,497

17,1

16,95

0

17,3

Ending Stocks

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Distribution

16,981

16,981

17,6

17,45

0

17,85

CY Imports

550

500

600

500

0

500

CY Imp. from U.S.

0

285

0

100

0

100

CY Exports

500

500

500

510

0

520

CY Exp. to U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Sunflower Seed

Sunflower Seed

201/16

2016/17

2017/18

USDA

Estimate

USDA

Estimate

USDA

Estimate

Area Planted

930

1,036

940

1,08

0

1,1

Area Harvested

1,036

1,036

940

1,08

0

1,1

Beginning Stocks

93

93

174

174

0

180

Production

2,698

2,698

2,51

2,8

0

2,85

MY Imports

74

74

70

70

0

75

MY Imp. from U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

MY Imp. from EU

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Supply

2,865

2,865

2,754

3,044

0

3,105

MY Exports

286

286

250

280

0

290

MY Exp. to EU

18

18

0

20

0

20

Crush

1,4

1,4

1,32

1,569

0

1,65

Food Use Dom. Cons.

905

905

910

910

0

915

Feed Waste Dom. Cons.

100

100

100

105

0

108

Total Dom. Cons.

2,405

2,405

2,33

2,584

0

2,673

Ending Stocks

174

174

174

180

142

Total Distribution

2,865

2,865

2,754

3,044

0

3,105

CY Imports

50

77

50

80

0

70

CY Imp. from U.S.

1

0

1

1

0

1

CY Exports

250

296

250

280

0

285


Cottonseed

Cottonseed

2015/16

2016/17

2017/18

USDA

Estimate

USDA

Estimate

USDA

Estimate

Area Planted (Cotton)

3,7

3,2

3,1

3

0

3,1

Area Harvested (Cotton)

3,05

3,2

2,85

3

0

3,1

Seed to Lint Ratio

0

0

0

0

0

0

Beginning Stocks

0

0

0

0

0

0

Production

9,58

9,58

9,8

8,9

0

9,1

MY Imports

75

75

100

50

0

20

MY Imp. from U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

MY Imp. from EU

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Supply

9,655

9,655

9,9

8,95

0

9,12

MY Exports

0

0

0

0

0

0

MY Exp. to EU

0

0

0

0

0

0

Crush

8,4

8,355

8,4

7,6

0

7,77

Food Use Dom. Cons.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Feed Waste Dom. Cons.

1,255

1,3

1,5

1,35

0

1,35

Total Dom. Cons.

9,655

9,655

9,9

8,95

0

9,12

Ending Stocks

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Distribution

9,655

9,655

9,9

8,95

0

9,12

CY Imports

35

76

100

45

0

20

CY Imp. from U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

CY Exports

0

0

0

0

0

0

CY Exp. to U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Soybean Meal

Soybean Meal

2015/16

2016/17

2017/18

USDA

Official

Estimate

New

USDA

Official

Estimate

New

USDA

Official

Estimate

New

Crush

81,3

81

86,5

86

0

87,8

Extr. Rate, 999.9999

0.792

0.792

0.792

0.792

0.000

0.792

Beginning Stocks

0

0

0

0

0

0

Production

64,39

64,152

68,508

68,112

0

69,538

MY Imports

24

22

30

20

0

21

MY Imp. from U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

MY Imp. from EU

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Supply

64,414

64,174

68,538

68,132

0

69,559

MY Exports

1,909

1,889

1,9

1,85

0

1,8

MY Exp. to EU

30

190

30

180

0

180

Industrial Dom. Cons.

1

1

1,05

1,05

0

1,1

Food Use Dom. Cons.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Feed Waste Dom. Cons.

61,505

61,285

65,588

65,232

0

66,659

Total Dom. Cons.

62,505

62,285

66,638

66,282

0

67,759

Ending Stocks

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Distribution

64,414

64,174

68,538

68,132

0

69,559

CY Imports

30

18

30

21

0

20

CY Imp. from U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

CY Exports

1,85

1,876

1,85

1,9

0

1,85

CY Exp. to U.S.

20

80

0

50

0

50

Rapeseed Meal

2015/16

2016/17

2017/18

USDA

Official

Estimate

New

USDA

Official

Estimate

New

USDA

Official

Estimate

New

Crush

18,5

18,1

16,6

17,2

0

17,2

Extr. Rate, 999.9999

0.595

0.595

0.595

0.595

0

0.595

Beginning Stocks

0

0

0

0

0

0

Production

11,009

10,77

9,879

10,234

0

10,234

MY Imports

359

359

200

200

0

200

MY Imp. from U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

MY Imp. from EU

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Supply

11,368

11,129

10,079

10,434

0

10,434

MY Exports

114

114

50

50

0

60

MY Exp. to EU

0

4

0

0

0

0

Industrial Dom. Cons.

450

450

450

450

0

450

Food Use Dom. Cons.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Feed Waste Dom. Cons.

10,804

10,565

9,579

9,934

0

9,924

Total Dom. Cons.

11,254

11,015

10,029

10,384

0

10,374

Ending Stocks

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Distribution

11,368

11,129

10,079

10,434

0

10,434

CY Imports

100

504

200

200

0

210

CY Imp. from U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

CY Exports

100

107

50

50

0

55

CY Exp. to U.S.

0

4

0

0

0

0

Peanut Meal

2015/16

2016/17

2017/18

USDA

Official

Estimate

New

USDA

Official

Estimate

New

USDA

Official

Estimate

New

Crush

8,7

8,85

9,15

9,1

0

9,3

Extr. Rate, 999.9999

0.400

0.400

0.400

0.400

0.000

0.400

Beginning Stocks

0

0

0

0

0

0

Production

3,48

3,54

3,66

3,64

0

3,72

MY Imports

3

3

40

50

0

30

MY Imp. from U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

MY Imp. from EU

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Supply

3,483

3,543

3,7

3,69

0

3,75

MY Exports

1

1

2

3

0

0

MY Exp. to EU

0

0

0

0

0

0

Industrial Dom. Cons.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Food Use Dom. Cons.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Feed Waste Dom. Cons.

3,482

3,542

3,698

3,687

0

3,75

Total Dom. Cons.

3,482

3,542

3,698

3,687

0

3,75

Ending Stocks

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Distribution

3,483

3,543

3,7

3,69

0

3,75

CY Imports

40

40

20

45

0

30

CY Imp. from U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

CY Exports

2

2

2

3

0

2

CY Exp. to U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0


Sunflower Seed Meal






Crush

2015/16

2016/17

2017/18

USDA

Official

Estimate

New

USDA

Official

Estimate

New

USDA

Official

Estimate

New

1,4

1,4

1,32

1,569

0

1,65

Extr. Rate, 999.9999

0.546

0.546

0.546

0.546

0.000

0.546

Beginning Stocks

0

0

0

0

0

0

Production

764

764

720

856

0

900

MY Imports

0

0

0

0

0

0

MY Imp. from U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

MY Imp. from EU

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Supply

764

764

720

856

0

900

MY Exports

23

23

15

15

0

18

MY Exp. to EU

9

20

9

14

0

14

Industrial Dom. Cons.

62

62

60

62

0

63

Food Use Dom. Cons.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Feed Waste Dom. Cons.

679

679

645

779

0

819

Total Dom. Cons.

741

741

705

841

0

882

Ending Stocks

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Distribution

764

764

720

856

0

900

CY Imports

0

0

0

0

0

0

CY Imp. from U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

CY Exports

15

24

15

15

0

17


Cotton Seed Meal

Cotton Seed Meal

2015/16

2016/17

2017/18

USDA

Official

Estimate

New

USDA

Official

Estimate

New

USDA

Official

Estimate

New

Crush

8,4

8,355

8,4

7,6

0

7,77

Extr. Rate, 999.9999

0.433

0.433

0.433

0.433

0.000

0.433

Beginning Stocks

0

0

0

0

0

0

Production

3,64

3,62

3,639

3,293

0

3,366

MY Imports

0

0

0

0

0

0

MY Imp. from U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

MY Imp. from EU

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Supply

3,64

3,62

3,639

3,293

0

3,366

MY Exports

0

0

5

0

0

0

MY Exp. to EU

0

0

0

0

0

0

Industrial Dom. Cons.

140

140

140

140

0

140

Food Use Dom. Cons.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Feed Waste Dom. Cons.

3,5

3,48

3,494

3,153

0

3,226

Total Dom. Cons.

3,64

3,62

3,634

3,293

0

3,366

Ending Stocks

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Distribution

3,64

3,62

3,639

3,293

0

3,366

CY Imports

0

0

0

0

0

0

CY Imp. from U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

CY Exports

5

0

5

0

0

35

CY Exp. to U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Fish Meal

Fish Meal

2015/16

2016/17

2017/18

USDA

Official

Estimate

New

USDA

Official

Estimate

New

USDA

Official

Estimate

New

Catch For Reduction

1,1

1,1

1,1

1,2

0

1,2

Extr. Rate, 999.9999

0.364

0.364

0.364

0.363

0.000

0.363

Beginning Stocks

0

0

0

0

0

0

Production

400

400

400

436

0

436

MY Imports

1,042

1,042

1

1

0

1

MY Imp. from U.S.

114

114

90

100

0

100

MY Imp. from EU

5

9

5

5

0

6

Total Supply

1,442

1,442

1,4

1,436

0

1,436

MY Exports

3

3

5

5

0

5

MY Exp. to EU

0

0

0

0

0

0

Industrial Dom. Cons.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Food Use Dom. Cons.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Feed Waste Dom. Cons.

1,439

1,439

1,395

1,431

0

1,431

Total Dom. Cons.

1,439

1,439

1,395

1,431

0

1,431

Ending Stocks

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Distribution

1,442

1,442

1,4

1,436

0

1,436

CY Imports

1,042

1,042

1

1

0

1

CY Imp. from U.S.

114

114

90

100

0

100

CY Exports

3

3

5

5

0

6

CY Exp. to U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Soybean Oil

2015/16

2016/17

2017/18

USDA

Official

Estimate

New

USDA

Official

Estimate

New

USDA

Official

Estimate

New

Crush

81,3

81

86,5

86

0

87,8

Extr. Rate, 999.9999

0.179

0.179

0.179

0.179

0.000

0.179

Beginning Stocks

778

778

587

533

0

743

Production

14,569

14,515

15,501

15,41

0

15,716

MY Imports

586

586

620

550

0

500

MY Imp. from U.S.

100

20

100

120

0

100

MY Imp. from EU

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Supply

15,933

15,879

16,708

16,493

0

16,959

MY Exports

96

96

110

100

0

150

MY Exp. to EU

0

0

0

0

0

0

Industrial Dom. Cons.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Food Use Dom. Cons.

15,25

15,25

16

15,65

0

16

Feed Waste Dom. Cons.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Dom. Cons.

15,25

15,25

16

15,65

0

16

Ending Stocks

587

533

598

743

0

809

Total Distribution

15,933

15,879

16,708

16,493

0

16,959

CY Imports

700

560

600

600

0

600

CY Imp. from U.S.

100

100

100

100

0

100

CY Exports

110

100

110

100

0

100

CY Exp. to U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Rapeseed Oil

Rapeseed Oil

2015/16

2016/17

2017/18

USDA

Official

Estimate

New

USDA

Official

Estimate

New

USDA

Official

Estimate

New

Crush

18,5

18,1

16,6

17,2

0

17,2

Extr. Rate, 999.9999

0.390

0.392

0.392

0.392

0.000

0.392

Beginning Stocks

4,164

4,164

3,844

4,178

0

3,37

Production

7,215

7,059

6,474

6,747

0

6,747

MY Imports

768

768

700

600

0

610

MY Imp. from U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

MY Imp. from EU

0

40

0

50

0

50

Total Supply

12,147

11,991

11,018

11,525

0

10,727

MY Exports

3

3

5

5

0

5

MY Exp. to EU

0

0

0

0

0

0

Industrial Dom. Cons.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Food Use Dom. Cons.

8,3

7,81

8,25

8,15

0

8,26

Feed Waste Dom. Cons.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Dom. Cons.

8,3

7,81

8,25

8,15

0

8,26

Ending Stocks

3,844

4,178

2,763

3,37

0

2,462

Total Distribution

12,147

11,991

11,018

11,525

0

10,727

CY Imports

800

700

700

700

0

700

CY Imp. from U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

CY Exports

5

5

5

5

0

4

CY Exp. to U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Oil, Peanut

Commodity

Oil, Peanut (1000 tons)

2015/16

2016/17

2017/18

USDA

Estimate

USDA

Estimate

USDA

Estimate

Official

New

Official

New

Official

New

Crush

8,7

8,85

9,15

9,1

0

9,3

Extr. Rate, 999.9999

0.320

0.320

0.320

0.320

0.000

0.320

Beginning Stocks

0

0

0

0

0

0

Production

2,784

2,832

2,928

2,912

0

2,976

MY Imports

113

113

130

100

0

100

MY Imp. from U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

MY Imp. from EU

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Supply

2,897

2,945

3,058

3,012

0

3,076

MY Exports

10

10

6

8

0

9

MY Exp. to EU

0

0

0

0

0

0

Industrial Dom. Cons.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Food Use Dom. Cons.

2,887

2,935

3,052

3,004

0

3,067

Feed Waste Dom. Cons.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Dom. Cons.

2,887

2,935

3,052

3,004

0

3,067

Ending Stocks

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Distribution

2,897

2,945

3,058

3,012

0

3,076

CY Imports

120

107

130

110

0

110

CY Imp. from U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

CY Exports

7

9

6

8

0

9

CY Exp. to U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0


Cotton Seed Oil

2015/16

2016/17

2017/18

Estimate

New

USDA

Official

Estimate

New

USDA

Official

Estimate

New

USDA

Official

Market Year Begin

10/2015

10/2016

10.2017

Crush

8,4

8,355

8,4

7,6

0

7,77

Extr. Rate, 999.9999

0.146

0.145

0.146

0.145

0.000

0.145

Beginning Stocks

0

0

0

0

0

0

Production

1,222

1,215

1,222

1,105

0

1,13

MY Imports

0

0

0

0

0

0

MY Imp. from U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

MY Imp. from EU

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Supply

1,222

1,215

1,222

1,105

0

1,13

MY Exports

1

1

5

1

0

1

MY Exp. to EU

0

0

0

0

0

0

Industrial Dom. Cons.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Food Use Dom. Cons.

1,221

1,214

1,217

1,104

0

1,129

Feed Waste Dom. Cons.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Dom. Cons.

1,221

1,214

1,217

1,104

0

1,129

Ending Stocks

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Distribution

1,222

1,215

1,222

1,105

0

1,13

CY Imports

0

0

0

0

0

0

CY Imp. from U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

CY Exports

0

1

5

1

0

1

CY Exp. to U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Sunflower Seed Oil

Commodity

Oil, Sunflower Seed (1000 tons)

2015/16

2016/17

2017/18

USDA

Official

Post

Estimate

New

USDA

Official

Post

Estimate

New

USDA

Official

Post

Estimate

New

Market Year Begin

10/2015

10\2016

20\2017

Crush

1,4

1,4

1,32

1,569

0

1,65

Extr. Rate, 999.9999

0.359

0.358

0.360

0.358

0

0.358

Beginning Stocks

0

0

0

0

0

0

Production

502

501

475

562

0

591

MY Imports

878

878

850

850

0

850

MY Imp. from U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

MY Imp. from EU

0

1

0

1

0

0

Total Supply

1,38

1,379

1,325

1,412

0

1,441

MY Exports

1

1

0

2

0

0

MY Exp. to EU

0

0

0

0

0

0

Industrial Dom. Cons.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Food Use Dom. Cons.

1,379

1,378

1,325

1,41

0

1,441

Feed Waste Dom. Cons.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Dom. Cons.

1,379

1,378

1,325

1,41

0

1,441

Ending Stocks

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Distribution

1,38

1,379

1,325

1,412

0

1,441

CY Imports

850

957

850

850

0

860

CY Imp. from U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

CY Exports

0

1

0

2

0

0

CY Exp. to U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Palm Oil

Commodity

2015/16

2016/17

2017/18

USDA

Official

Estimate

New

USDA

Official

Estimate

New

USDA

Official

Estimate

New

Market Year Begin

10.15

10.16

10. 17

Area Planted

0

0

0

0

0

0

Area Harvested

0

0

0

0

0

0

Trees

0

0

0

0

0

0

Beginning Stocks

305

305

189

139

0

237

Production

0

0

0

0

0

0

MY Imports

4,689

4,689

5,1

5

0

5

MY Imp. from U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

MY Imp. from EU

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Supply

4,994

4,994

5,289

5,139

0

5,237

MY Exports

5

5

0

2

0

3

MY Exp. to EU

0

0

0

0

0

0

Industrial Dom. Cons.

2

2,05

2,05

2,1

0

2,15

Food Use Dom. Cons.

2,8

2,8

3

2,8

0

2,85

Feed Waste Dom. Cons.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Dom. Cons.

4,8

4,85

5,05

4,9

0

5

Ending Stocks

189

139

239

237

0

234

Total Distribution

4,994

4,994

5,289

5,139

0

5,237

CY Imports

4,8

4,479

5,15

5,1

0

5,1

CY Imp. from U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

CY Exports

0

7

0

2

0

3

CY Exp. to U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Coconut Oil

China, Peoples Republic of

Oil, Coconut (1000 tons)

2015/16

2016/17

2017/18

USDA

Official

Post

Estimate

New

USDA

Official

Post

Estimate

New

USDA

Official

Post

Estimate

New

Market Year Begin

10/2015

10/2016

10/2017

Crush

0

0

0

0

0

0

Extr. Rate, 999.9999

0

0

0

0

0.000

0.000

Beginning Stocks

0

0

0

0

0

0

Production

0

0

0

0

0

0

MY Imports

136

136

135

140

0

140

MY Imp. from U.S.

0

3

0

3

0

3

MY Imp. from EU

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Supply

136

136

135

140

0

140

MY Exports

0

0

0

0

0

0

MY Exp. to EU

0

0

0

0

0

0

Industrial Dom. Cons.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Food Use Dom. Cons.

136

136

135

140

0

140

Feed Waste Dom. Cons.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Dom. Cons.

136

136

135

140

0

140

Ending Stocks

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Distribution

136

136

135

140

0

140

CY Imports

140

0

145

0

0

0

CY Imp. from U.S.

4

4

4

3

0

3

CY Exports

0

0

0

0

0

0

CY Exp. to U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0