Highlights

Post forecasts India to produce 6.8 million metric tons (MMT) of rapeseed and mustard in marketing year (MY) 2016/17 (Oct-Sept), derived from 7.05 million hectares. This forecast marks a 15-percent production increase over last year due to increased area planted, more stable yields, and better weather. MY 2016/17 Indian oilmeal export sales are higher and vegetable oil imports are also expected to rise four percent to 16 MMT, albeit at a relatively moderate pace.

MY 2016/17 Rapeseed and Mustard Production Unchanged at 6.8 MMT

Rabi (winter) oilseed crops, chiefly rapeseed, mustard, peanut, and sunflower were planted on 7.8 million hectares, a 6.4-percent increase in area planted over last year. Oilseed planting was higher in most major growing states, except for Haryana and some southern states like Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, and Telangana, which faced low levels of precipitation.

Rapeseed and mustard production in MY 2016/17 will reach 6.8 MMT, a 15-percent increase over last year, derived from 7.05 million hectares. The higher production forecast is largely attributed to increased area planted in both traditional and non-traditional states. Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh, and Madhya Pradesh saw more acres come under production this season and together accounted for about 65 percent of India’s total rapeseed and mustard acres. According to the Indian Ministry of Agriculture’s (MinAg) latest planting report for crop year 2016 (July-June), farmers were encouraged by good soil moisture resulting from last year’s southwest monsoon, strong market prices, and above average temperatures during planting. Indian farmers were eager to recoup some of the rapeseed and mustard acres lost during the last two dry years.

Yields should remain stable and be above the most recent five-year average, particularly if favorable weather conditions persist through the planting season and there are no major pest or disease outbreaks. Although wholesale rapeseed and mustard prices are under some pressure due to good progress in planting to date, prices are relatively stable and generally on par with prices last year. Moreover, the MSP for rapeseed and mustard in MY 2016/17 was increased by INR 350 to INR 3,700/quintal.

Additionally, taramira (Eruca sativa) and toria (Brassica rapa) planting increased by 640,000 hectares, accounting for almost nine percent of total rapeseed and mustard planted this year. The estimated area under taramira (in Rajasthan) reached 236,200 hectares, a significant increase over about 17,000 hectares planted last year. Similarly, the estimated area under toria, grown in eastern Uttar Pradesh, Punjab, Haryana, and in eastern Indian states reached 404,000 hectares, another significant increase over the 120,000 hectares last year.

MY 2016/17 Peanut Production Lowered, Sunflower Production at Decadal Low

MY 2016/17 peanut production is revised lower to 6 MMT, four percent below the official estimate, but still an increase of 35-percent over last year. Lower than expected winter peanut planting in Odisha, Tamil Nadu, and Chhattisgarh led to this revision. Similarly, sunflower production and area planted were also revised lower to 240,000 metric tons (MT) from 304,000 hectares. Sunflower production declined by more than 80 percent during the last decade and continues to lose acres under cultivation by almost 15-18 percent annually, as farmers are increasingly prefer other remunerative crops.

Aggressive Oilmeal Pricing Supports Indian Export Sales in MY 2016/17

During the first four months of the MY 2016/17, oilmeal (soybean and rapeseed meal) exports quadrupled over corresponding sales last year . Indian oilmeal exports are predicated on demand for smaller shipments from France, Southeast Asia, and the Middle East and aggressive pricing by Indian oilmeal exporters.

Vegetable Oil Imports Slow

Vegetable oil imports during the first quarter of MY 2016/17 were down 21 percent compared to last year due to lower than anticipated imports of crude palm (CPO) and soybean oils. However, as indicated earlier (November 2016 update), the narrowing price premium for sunflower oil versus soybean oil, and thinner margins between CPO and refined palm oil have encouraged the trade. The price premium for soybean oil ($50/MT over sunflower oil and $110/MT over CPO: SEA Data) will however limit imports below 4 MMT. Additionally, sufficient beginning stocks will prevent stockpiling by importers/traders. Vegetable oil imports in the MY 2016/17 are forecast to increase by four percent to 16 MMT.

Vegetable Oil Imports, in 1000 Metric Tons

Oct -16

Nov-16

Dec-16

Oct-16-Jan-17

Jan -16

%

16

16

16

17

16

Change

RBD palmolein

222

241

246

708

690

3

Crude palm oil

514

557

473

1,545

2,057

-25

Crude palmolein

0

473

0

0

0

-

Crude Palm kernel oil

3

0

4

10

31

-66

Total palm oil

739

801

723

2,264

2,777

-18

Crude soybean oil

278

164

232

674

1,158

-42

Refined soybean oil

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total soy oil

278

164

232

674

1,158

-42

Crude sun oil

97

158

186

441

394

12

Refined sun oil

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total sun oil

97

158

186

441

394

12

Canola Rape oil

44

32

33

109

66

64

Cottonseed Oil

0

0

0

0

0

0

Safflower oil

0

0

0

0

0

-

Coconut oil

0

0

0

0

0

Grand Total

1,158

1,156

1,174

3,488

4,395

-21

Oilseed, Rapeseed

Oilseed, Rapeseed

2014/2015

2015/2016

2016/2017

Market Begin Year

Oct 2014

Oct 2015

Oct 2016

India

USDA

Official

New

Post

USDA

Official

New

Post

USDA

Official

New

Post

Area Planted

6600

6517

7000

6450

6600

7056

Area Harvested

5799

6517

5814

6450

6500

7056

Beginning Stocks

439

439

479

504

499

244

Production

5080

5800

5920

6000

6800

6800

MY Imports

0

0

0

0

0

0

MY Imp. from U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

MY Imp. from EU

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Supply

5519

6239

6399

6504

7299

7044

MY Exports

0

0

0

5

0

5

MY Exp. to EU

0

0

0

0

0

0

Crush

4200

4800

5000

5250

5700

5700

Food Use Dom.

550

660

580

725

620

800

Feed Waste Dom.

290

275

320

280

330

325

Total Dom. Cons.

5040

5735

5900

6255

6650

6825

Ending Stocks

479

504

499

244

649

214

Total Distribution

5519

6239

6399

6504

7299

7044

Meal, Rapeseed

Market Begin Year

Oct 2014

May 2015

Oct 2016

India

USDA

Official

USDA

Official

USDA

Official

Crush

4200

4800

5000

5250

5700

5700

Extr. Rate, 999.9999

0.5969

0.5896

0.597

0.5905

0.597

0.5905

Beginning Stocks

300

300

148

130

245

490

Production

2507

2830

2985

3100

3403

3366

MY Imports

0

0

3

0

0

0

MY Imp. From US

0

0

0

0

0

0

MY Imp. From EU

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Supply

2807

3130

3136

3230

3648

3856

MY Exports

1059

800

291

240

350

750

MY Exp. To EU

2

0

0

0

0

0

Industrial Dom. Cons.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Food Use Dom. Cons.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Feed Waste Dom. Cons.

1600

2200

2600

2500

3000

2700

Total Dom. Cons

1600

2200

2600

2500

3000

2700

Ending Stocks

148

130

245

490

298

406

Total Distribution

2807

3130

3136

3230

3648

3856

Oil, Rapeseed

India

USDA

Official

New Post

USDA

Official

New Post

USDA

Official

New Post

Crush

4200

4800

5000

5250

5700

5700

Extr. Rate, 999.9999

0.38

0.3958

0.38

0.4105

0.38

0.4105

Beginning Stocks

325

325

222

328

222

351

Production

1596

1900

1900

2155

2166

2340

MY Imports

383

385

383

350

400

350

MY Imp. From US

0

0

0

0

0

0

MY Imp. From EU

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Supply

2304

2610

2505

2833

2788

3041

MY Exports

2

2

3

2

0

2

MY Exp. To EU

0

0

0

0

0

0

Industrial Dom. Cons.

80

80

80

80

85

85

Food Use Dom. Cons.

2000

2200

2200

2400

2450

2600

Feed Waste Dom. Cons.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Dom.

2080

2280

2280

2480

2535

2685

Ending Stocks

222

328

222

351

253

354

Total Distribution

2304

2610

2505

2833

2788

3041

Oilseed, Peanut

Oilseed, Peanut

2014/2015

2015/2016

2016/2017

Market Begin Year

India

Oct 2014

May 2015

Oct 2016

USDA

Official

New

Post

USDA

Official

New

Post

USDA

Official

New

Post

Area Planted

4743

4560

4560

4300

5500

5315

Area Harvested

4743

4560

4560

4300

5500

5315

Beginning Stocks

767

767

500

573

336

558

Production

4855

5200

4470

4600

6300

6050

MY Imports

1

1

0

0

0

0

MY Imp. from U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

MY Imp. from EU

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Supply

5623

5968

4970

5173

6636

6608

MY Exports

873

645

784

575

950

700

MY Exp. to EU

20

20

20

20

20

25

Crush

3000

3050

2650

2600

3400

3300

Food Use Dom.

800

1200

750

1000

1000

1400

Feed Waste Dom.

450

500

450

440

500

500

Total Dom. Cons.

4250

4750

3850

4040

4900

5200

Ending Stocks

500

573

336

558

786

708

Total Distribution

5623

5968

4970

5173

6636

6608

Meal, Peanut

Meal, Peanut

Market Begin

India

2014/2015

2015/2016

2016/2017

Oct 2014

May 2015

Oct 2016

USDA

Official

New

Post

USDA

Official

New

Post

USDA

Official

New

Post

Crush

3000

3050

2650

2600

3400

3300

Extr. Rate,

0.4167

0.4

0.42

0.4

0.4265

0.4

Beginning Stocks

0

0

0

0

0

0

Production

1250

1220

1113

1040

1450

1320

MY Imports

0

0

0

0

0

0

MY Imp. from

0

0

0

0

0

0

MY Imp. from

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Supply

1250

1220

1113

1040

1450

1320

MY Exports

8

3

6

1

8

1

MY Exp. to EU

0

0

0

0

0

0

Industrial Dom. Cons.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Food Use Dom. Cons.

5

10

5

5

5

8

Feed Waste Dom. Cons.

1237

1207

1102

1034

1437

1311

Total Dom. Cons.

1242

1217

1107

1039

1442

1319

Ending Stocks

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Distribution

1250

1220

1113

1040

1450

1320


Oil, Peanut

Market Begin

India

Oct 2014

May 2015

Oct 2016

USDA

Official

New Post

USDA

Official

New Post

USDA

Official

New Post

Crush

3000

3050

2650

2600

3400

3300

Extr. Rate,

0.33

0.34

0.3302

0.34

0.3309

0.34

Beginning

167

167

92

74

82

81

Production

990

1037

875

884

1125

1122

MY Imports

0

0

0

0

0

0

MY Imp. from

0

0

0

0

0

0

MY Imp. from

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Supply

1157

1204

967

958

1207

1203

MY Exports

15

15

11

12

20

15

MY Exp. to EU

0

0

0

0

0

0

Industrial Dom. Cons.

10

15

10

10

10

10

Food Use Dom.Cons.

1040

1100

864

855

1055

1080

Feed Waste Dom.Cons.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Dom. Cons.

1050

1115

874

865

1065

1090

Ending Stocks

92

74

82

81

122

98

Total Distribution

1157

1204

967

958

1207

1203

Oilseed, Sunflowerseed

Oilseed, Sunflowerseed

2014/2015

2015/2016

2016/2017

Market Begin Year

India

Oct 2014

Oct 2015

Oct 2016

USDA

Official

New

Post

USDA

Official

New

Post

USDA

Official

New

Post

Area Planted

550

525

550

446

400

304

Area Harvested

584

525

550

446

400

304

Beginning Stocks

0

0

0

0

0

0

Production

383

435

320

390

320

240

MY Imports

1

0

1

0

2

0

MY Imp. from U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

MY Imp. from EU

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Supply

384

435

321

390

322

240

MY Exports

6

0

3

0

4

0

MY Exp. to EU

0

0

0

0

0

0

Crush

323

380

270

340

270

215

Food Use Dom.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Feed Waste Dom.

55

55

48

50

48

25

Total Dom. Cons.

378

435

318

390

318

240

Ending Stocks

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Distribution

384

435

321

390

322

240

Oilmeal, Sunflowerseed

Meal Sunflowerseeds

2014/2015

2015/2016

2016/2017

Oct 2014

May 2015

Oct 2016

India

USDA

New Post

USDA

New Post

USDA

New Post

Official

Official

Official

Crush

323

380

270

340

270

215

Extr. Rate,

0.483

0.4789

0.4815

0.4794

0.4815

0.4791

Beginning

0

0

0

0

0

0

Production

156

182

130

163

130

103

MY Imports

32

0

184

0

140

0

MY Imp.US

0

0

0

0

0

0

MY Imp. EU

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Supply

188

182

314

163

270

103

MY Exports

4

0

4

0

5

0

MY Exp. to EU

0

0

0

0

0

0

Industrial

0

0

0

0

0

0

Food Use

0

0

0

0

0

0

Feed Waste

184

182

310

163

265

103

Total Dom. Cons.

184

182

310

163

265

103

Ending Stoks

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Distribution

188

182

314

163

270

103

Oil, Sunflowerseed

Oil,Sunflowerseed

2014/2015

2015/2016

2016/2017

Market Begin

India

Oct 2014

Oct 2015

Oct 2016

USDA

Official

New

Post

USDA

Official

New

Post

USDA

Official

New

Post

Crush

323

380

270

340

270

215

Extr. Rate,

0.3622

0.3553

0.363

0.35

0.3556

0.3488

Beginning Stocks

343

343

331

208

218

257

Production

117

135

98

119

96

75

MY Imports

1575

1530

1492

1530

1800

1800

MY Imp. From US

0

0

0

0

0

0

MY Imp. FROm EU

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Supply

2035

2008

1921

1857

2114

2132

MY Exports

4

0

3

0

3

0

MY Exp. to EU

0

0

0

0

0

0

Industrial Dom. Cons.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Food Use Dom. Cons.

1700

1800

1700

1600

1820

1900

Feed Waste Dom.Cons.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Dom. Cons.

1700

1800

1700

1600

1820

1900

Ending Stocks

331

208

218

257

291

232

Total Distribution

2035

2008

1921

1857

2114

2132