India. Oilseeds and Products Update Feb. 22, 2017
Highlights
Post forecasts India to produce 6.8 million metric tons (MMT) of rapeseed and mustard in marketing year (MY) 2016/17 (Oct-Sept), derived from 7.05 million hectares. This forecast marks a 15-percent production increase over last year due to increased area planted, more stable yields, and better weather. MY 2016/17 Indian oilmeal export sales are higher and vegetable oil imports are also expected to rise four percent to 16 MMT, albeit at a relatively moderate pace.
MY 2016/17 Rapeseed and Mustard Production Unchanged at 6.8 MMT
Rabi (winter) oilseed crops, chiefly rapeseed, mustard, peanut, and sunflower were planted on 7.8 million hectares, a 6.4-percent increase in area planted over last year. Oilseed planting was higher in most major growing states, except for Haryana and some southern states like Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, and Telangana, which faced low levels of precipitation.
Rapeseed and mustard production in MY 2016/17 will reach 6.8 MMT, a 15-percent increase over last year, derived from 7.05 million hectares. The higher production forecast is largely attributed to increased area planted in both traditional and non-traditional states. Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh, and Madhya Pradesh saw more acres come under production this season and together accounted for about 65 percent of India’s total rapeseed and mustard acres. According to the Indian Ministry of Agriculture’s (MinAg) latest planting report for crop year 2016 (July-June), farmers were encouraged by good soil moisture resulting from last year’s southwest monsoon, strong market prices, and above average temperatures during planting. Indian farmers were eager to recoup some of the rapeseed and mustard acres lost during the last two dry years.
Yields should remain stable and be above the most recent five-year average, particularly if favorable weather conditions persist through the planting season and there are no major pest or disease outbreaks. Although wholesale rapeseed and mustard prices are under some pressure due to good progress in planting to date, prices are relatively stable and generally on par with prices last year. Moreover, the MSP for rapeseed and mustard in MY 2016/17 was increased by INR 350 to INR 3,700/quintal.
Additionally, taramira (Eruca sativa) and toria (Brassica rapa) planting increased by 640,000 hectares, accounting for almost nine percent of total rapeseed and mustard planted this year. The estimated area under taramira (in Rajasthan) reached 236,200 hectares, a significant increase over about 17,000 hectares planted last year. Similarly, the estimated area under toria, grown in eastern Uttar Pradesh, Punjab, Haryana, and in eastern Indian states reached 404,000 hectares, another significant increase over the 120,000 hectares last year.
MY 2016/17 Peanut Production Lowered, Sunflower Production at Decadal Low
MY 2016/17 peanut production is revised lower to 6 MMT, four percent below the official estimate, but still an increase of 35-percent over last year. Lower than expected winter peanut planting in Odisha, Tamil Nadu, and Chhattisgarh led to this revision. Similarly, sunflower production and area planted were also revised lower to 240,000 metric tons (MT) from 304,000 hectares. Sunflower production declined by more than 80 percent during the last decade and continues to lose acres under cultivation by almost 15-18 percent annually, as farmers are increasingly prefer other remunerative crops.
Aggressive Oilmeal Pricing Supports Indian Export Sales in MY 2016/17
During the first four months of the MY 2016/17, oilmeal (soybean and rapeseed meal) exports quadrupled over corresponding sales last year . Indian oilmeal exports are predicated on demand for smaller shipments from France, Southeast Asia, and the Middle East and aggressive pricing by Indian oilmeal exporters.
Vegetable Oil Imports Slow
Vegetable oil imports during the first quarter of MY 2016/17 were down 21 percent compared to last year due to lower than anticipated imports of crude palm (CPO) and soybean oils. However, as indicated earlier (November 2016 update), the narrowing price premium for sunflower oil versus soybean oil, and thinner margins between CPO and refined palm oil have encouraged the trade. The price premium for soybean oil ($50/MT over sunflower oil and $110/MT over CPO: SEA Data) will however limit imports below 4 MMT. Additionally, sufficient beginning stocks will prevent stockpiling by importers/traders. Vegetable oil imports in the MY 2016/17 are forecast to increase by four percent to 16 MMT.
Vegetable Oil Imports, in 1000 Metric Tons
Oct -16 | Nov-16 | Dec-16 | Oct-16-Jan-17 | Jan -16 | % | |
16 | 16 | 16 | 17 | 16 | Change | |
RBD palmolein | 222 | 241 | 246 | 708 | 690 | 3 |
Crude palm oil | 514 | 557 | 473 | 1,545 | 2,057 | -25 |
Crude palmolein | 0 | 473 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
Crude Palm kernel oil | 3 | 0 | 4 | 10 | 31 | -66 |
Total palm oil | 739 | 801 | 723 | 2,264 | 2,777 | -18 |
Crude soybean oil | 278 | 164 | 232 | 674 | 1,158 | -42 |
Refined soybean oil | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Total soy oil | 278 | 164 | 232 | 674 | 1,158 | -42 |
Crude sun oil | 97 | 158 | 186 | 441 | 394 | 12 |
Refined sun oil | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Total sun oil | 97 | 158 | 186 | 441 | 394 | 12 |
Canola Rape oil | 44 | 32 | 33 | 109 | 66 | 64 |
Cottonseed Oil | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Safflower oil | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
Coconut oil | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
Grand Total | 1,158 | 1,156 | 1,174 | 3,488 | 4,395 | -21 |
Oilseed, Rapeseed
Oilseed, Rapeseed | 2014/2015 | 2015/2016 | 2016/2017 | |||
Market Begin Year | Oct 2014 | Oct 2015 | Oct 2016 | |||
India | USDA Official | New Post | USDA Official | New Post | USDA Official | New Post |
Area Planted | 6600 | 6517 | 7000 | 6450 | 6600 | 7056 |
Area Harvested | 5799 | 6517 | 5814 | 6450 | 6500 | 7056 |
Beginning Stocks | 439 | 439 | 479 | 504 | 499 | 244 |
Production | 5080 | 5800 | 5920 | 6000 | 6800 | 6800 |
MY Imports | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
MY Imp. from U.S. | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
MY Imp. from EU | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Total Supply | 5519 | 6239 | 6399 | 6504 | 7299 | 7044 |
MY Exports | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 5 |
MY Exp. to EU | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Crush | 4200 | 4800 | 5000 | 5250 | 5700 | 5700 |
Food Use Dom. | 550 | 660 | 580 | 725 | 620 | 800 |
Feed Waste Dom. | 290 | 275 | 320 | 280 | 330 | 325 |
Total Dom. Cons. | 5040 | 5735 | 5900 | 6255 | 6650 | 6825 |
Ending Stocks | 479 | 504 | 499 | 244 | 649 | 214 |
Total Distribution | 5519 | 6239 | 6399 | 6504 | 7299 | 7044 |
Meal, Rapeseed
Market Begin Year | Oct 2014 | May 2015 | Oct 2016 | |||
India | USDA Official | USDA Official | USDA Official | |||
Crush | 4200 | 4800 | 5000 | 5250 | 5700 | 5700 |
Extr. Rate, 999.9999 | 0.5969 | 0.5896 | 0.597 | 0.5905 | 0.597 | 0.5905 |
Beginning Stocks | 300 | 300 | 148 | 130 | 245 | 490 |
Production | 2507 | 2830 | 2985 | 3100 | 3403 | 3366 |
MY Imports | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
MY Imp. From US | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
MY Imp. From EU | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Total Supply | 2807 | 3130 | 3136 | 3230 | 3648 | 3856 |
MY Exports | 1059 | 800 | 291 | 240 | 350 | 750 |
MY Exp. To EU | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Industrial Dom. Cons. | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Food Use Dom. Cons. | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Feed Waste Dom. Cons. | 1600 | 2200 | 2600 | 2500 | 3000 | 2700 |
Total Dom. Cons | 1600 | 2200 | 2600 | 2500 | 3000 | 2700 |
Ending Stocks | 148 | 130 | 245 | 490 | 298 | 406 |
Total Distribution | 2807 | 3130 | 3136 | 3230 | 3648 | 3856 |
Oil, Rapeseed
India | USDA Official | New Post | USDA Official | New Post | USDA Official | New Post |
Crush | 4200 | 4800 | 5000 | 5250 | 5700 | 5700 |
Extr. Rate, 999.9999 | 0.38 | 0.3958 | 0.38 | 0.4105 | 0.38 | 0.4105 |
Beginning Stocks | 325 | 325 | 222 | 328 | 222 | 351 |
Production | 1596 | 1900 | 1900 | 2155 | 2166 | 2340 |
MY Imports | 383 | 385 | 383 | 350 | 400 | 350 |
MY Imp. From US | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
MY Imp. From EU | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Total Supply | 2304 | 2610 | 2505 | 2833 | 2788 | 3041 |
MY Exports | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
MY Exp. To EU | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Industrial Dom. Cons. | 80 | 80 | 80 | 80 | 85 | 85 |
Food Use Dom. Cons. | 2000 | 2200 | 2200 | 2400 | 2450 | 2600 |
Feed Waste Dom. Cons. | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Total Dom. | 2080 | 2280 | 2280 | 2480 | 2535 | 2685 |
Ending Stocks | 222 | 328 | 222 | 351 | 253 | 354 |
Total Distribution | 2304 | 2610 | 2505 | 2833 | 2788 | 3041 |
Oilseed, Peanut
Oilseed, Peanut | 2014/2015 | 2015/2016 | 2016/2017 | |||
Market Begin Year India | Oct 2014 | May 2015 | Oct 2016 | |||
USDA Official | New Post | USDA Official | New Post | USDA Official | New Post | |
Area Planted | 4743 | 4560 | 4560 | 4300 | 5500 | 5315 |
Area Harvested | 4743 | 4560 | 4560 | 4300 | 5500 | 5315 |
Beginning Stocks | 767 | 767 | 500 | 573 | 336 | 558 |
Production | 4855 | 5200 | 4470 | 4600 | 6300 | 6050 |
MY Imports | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
MY Imp. from U.S. | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
MY Imp. from EU | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Total Supply | 5623 | 5968 | 4970 | 5173 | 6636 | 6608 |
MY Exports | 873 | 645 | 784 | 575 | 950 | 700 |
MY Exp. to EU | 20 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 25 |
Crush | 3000 | 3050 | 2650 | 2600 | 3400 | 3300 |
Food Use Dom. | 800 | 1200 | 750 | 1000 | 1000 | 1400 |
Feed Waste Dom. | 450 | 500 | 450 | 440 | 500 | 500 |
Total Dom. Cons. | 4250 | 4750 | 3850 | 4040 | 4900 | 5200 |
Ending Stocks | 500 | 573 | 336 | 558 | 786 | 708 |
Total Distribution | 5623 | 5968 | 4970 | 5173 | 6636 | 6608 |
Meal, Peanut
Meal, Peanut Market Begin India | 2014/2015 | 2015/2016 | 2016/2017 | |||
Oct 2014 | May 2015 | Oct 2016 | ||||
USDA Official | New Post | USDA Official | New Post | USDA Official | New Post | |
Crush | 3000 | 3050 | 2650 | 2600 | 3400 | 3300 |
Extr. Rate, | 0.4167 | 0.4 | 0.42 | 0.4 | 0.4265 | 0.4 |
Beginning Stocks | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Production | 1250 | 1220 | 1113 | 1040 | 1450 | 1320 |
MY Imports | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
MY Imp. from | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
MY Imp. from | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Total Supply | 1250 | 1220 | 1113 | 1040 | 1450 | 1320 |
MY Exports | 8 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 8 | 1 |
MY Exp. to EU | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Industrial Dom. Cons. | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Food Use Dom. Cons. | 5 | 10 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 8 |
Feed Waste Dom. Cons. | 1237 | 1207 | 1102 | 1034 | 1437 | 1311 |
Total Dom. Cons. | 1242 | 1217 | 1107 | 1039 | 1442 | 1319 |
Ending Stocks | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Total Distribution | 1250 | 1220 | 1113 | 1040 | 1450 | 1320 |
Oil, Peanut
Market Begin India | Oct 2014 | May 2015 | Oct 2016 | |||
USDA Official | New Post | USDA Official | New Post | USDA Official | New Post | |
Crush | 3000 | 3050 | 2650 | 2600 | 3400 | 3300 |
Extr. Rate, | 0.33 | 0.34 | 0.3302 | 0.34 | 0.3309 | 0.34 |
Beginning | 167 | 167 | 92 | 74 | 82 | 81 |
Production | 990 | 1037 | 875 | 884 | 1125 | 1122 |
MY Imports | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
MY Imp. from | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
MY Imp. from | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Total Supply | 1157 | 1204 | 967 | 958 | 1207 | 1203 |
MY Exports | 15 | 15 | 11 | 12 | 20 | 15 |
MY Exp. to EU | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Industrial Dom. Cons. | 10 | 15 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 |
Food Use Dom.Cons. | 1040 | 1100 | 864 | 855 | 1055 | 1080 |
Feed Waste Dom.Cons. | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Total Dom. Cons. | 1050 | 1115 | 874 | 865 | 1065 | 1090 |
Ending Stocks | 92 | 74 | 82 | 81 | 122 | 98 |
Total Distribution | 1157 | 1204 | 967 | 958 | 1207 | 1203 |
Oilseed, Sunflowerseed
Oilseed, Sunflowerseed | 2014/2015 | 2015/2016 | 2016/2017 | |||
Market Begin Year India | Oct 2014 | Oct 2015 | Oct 2016 | |||
USDA Official | New Post | USDA Official | New Post | USDA Official | New Post | |
Area Planted | 550 | 525 | 550 | 446 | 400 | 304 |
Area Harvested | 584 | 525 | 550 | 446 | 400 | 304 |
Beginning Stocks | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Production | 383 | 435 | 320 | 390 | 320 | 240 |
MY Imports | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
MY Imp. from U.S. | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
MY Imp. from EU | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Total Supply | 384 | 435 | 321 | 390 | 322 | 240 |
MY Exports | 6 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 0 |
MY Exp. to EU | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Crush | 323 | 380 | 270 | 340 | 270 | 215 |
Food Use Dom. | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Feed Waste Dom. | 55 | 55 | 48 | 50 | 48 | 25 |
Total Dom. Cons. | 378 | 435 | 318 | 390 | 318 | 240 |
Ending Stocks | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Total Distribution | 384 | 435 | 321 | 390 | 322 | 240 |
Oilmeal, Sunflowerseed
Meal Sunflowerseeds | 2014/2015 | 2015/2016 | 2016/2017 | |||
Oct 2014 | May 2015 | Oct 2016 | ||||
India | USDA | New Post | USDA | New Post | USDA | New Post |
Official | Official | Official | ||||
Crush | 323 | 380 | 270 | 340 | 270 | 215 |
Extr. Rate, | 0.483 | 0.4789 | 0.4815 | 0.4794 | 0.4815 | 0.4791 |
Beginning | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Production | 156 | 182 | 130 | 163 | 130 | 103 |
MY Imports | 32 | 0 | 184 | 0 | 140 | 0 |
MY Imp.US | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
MY Imp. EU | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Total Supply | 188 | 182 | 314 | 163 | 270 | 103 |
MY Exports | 4 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 0 |
MY Exp. to EU | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Industrial | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Food Use | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Feed Waste | 184 | 182 | 310 | 163 | 265 | 103 |
Total Dom. Cons. | 184 | 182 | 310 | 163 | 265 | 103 |
Ending Stoks | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Total Distribution | 188 | 182 | 314 | 163 | 270 | 103 |
Oil, Sunflowerseed
Oil,Sunflowerseed | 2014/2015 | 2015/2016 | 2016/2017 | |||
Market Begin India | Oct 2014 | Oct 2015 | Oct 2016 | |||
USDA Official | New Post | USDA Official | New Post | USDA Official | New Post | |
Crush | 323 | 380 | 270 | 340 | 270 | 215 |
Extr. Rate, | 0.3622 | 0.3553 | 0.363 | 0.35 | 0.3556 | 0.3488 |
Beginning Stocks | 343 | 343 | 331 | 208 | 218 | 257 |
Production | 117 | 135 | 98 | 119 | 96 | 75 |
MY Imports | 1575 | 1530 | 1492 | 1530 | 1800 | 1800 |
MY Imp. From US | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
MY Imp. FROm EU | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Total Supply | 2035 | 2008 | 1921 | 1857 | 2114 | 2132 |
MY Exports | 4 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
MY Exp. to EU | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Industrial Dom. Cons. | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Food Use Dom. Cons. | 1700 | 1800 | 1700 | 1600 | 1820 | 1900 |
Feed Waste Dom.Cons. | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Total Dom. Cons. | 1700 | 1800 | 1700 | 1600 | 1820 | 1900 |
Ending Stocks | 331 | 208 | 218 | 257 | 291 | 232 |
Total Distribution | 2035 | 2008 | 1921 | 1857 | 2114 | 2132 |