Highlights

For MY 2016/17 (May to April) the rice planted area and production forecast is marginally raised to 11.76 million HA and 34.58 MMT. The MY 2016/17 wheat production estimate is unchanged. The rice import estimate is lowered on announced increased tariff rates in the FY 2016-17 budget of the government of Bangladesh (GOB). The wheat import estimate is raised on increased demand driven by changing consumption patterns. Price per kilogram of rice is higher than wheat flour in the open market. Rice and wheat stocks are lowered since this year the GOB will increase rice and wheat distributions to the poor. The GOB has also signed contracts to import wheat from Russia.

RICE

Production

In MY 2016/17 (May to April) the total rice planted area and production forecast are marginally increased to 11.76 million HA and 34.58 MMT on revised government data regarding Boro rice planted area and harvest. Although Aus rice area was affected by floods and rains, timely rainfall, favorable weather, and effective distribution of inputs such as fertilizer may make this an abundant Aman rice harvest this season. Sources also report that Boro rice planting (from mid-November to mid-February) is on schedule as forecast.

Trade

The MY 2016/17 import forecast is lowered to 50,000 MT on expected increases in import tariffs that were listed in the FY 2016-17 budget of the Ministry of Finance.

Stocks

January 2017 public stocks are 602,490 MT, which is 47 percent lower than in January of last year. Free or subsidized rice distribution under government welfare programs was 85% higher than for the prior year period, July 2016– Mid January 2017.

Prices

Beginning in October the plentiful Aman rice harvest has driven rice prices down 22 and 16 percent year on year, to January 2017 levels of BDT 33.4 ($0.42) and BDT 36.33 ($0.46) per kilogram for wholesale and retail rice prices in Dhaka and Gazipur. The narrow spread between wholesale market price and the government procured price suggests that paddy supply to millers is sufficient to maintain milled rice supplies to both the open market and to the government’s procurement program.

Policy

In Bangladesh as much as 90% of consumers prefer parboiled rice and the Ministry of Food has announced its Aman rice procurement policy to support farmers. In December 2016 the Directorate of Food procured 0.35 MMT of parboiled rice at a premium rate of BDT 33 (US$ 0.42) per kilogram and 50,000 MT of un-parboiled rice at BDT 32 (US$ 0.41) per kilogram; the Directorate intends to continue its procurement program to mid-March 2017.

Rice, Milled

Market Begin Year

Bangladesh

2014/2015

2015/2016

2016/2017

May 2014

May 2015

May 2016

USDA

Official

New

Post

USDA

Official

New

Post

USDA

Official

New

Post

Area Harvested

11790

11790

11765

11765

11700

11768

Beginning Stocks

966

966

1592

1592

1205

1208

Milled Production

34500

34500

34500

34500

34515

34581

Rough Production

51755

51755

51755

51755

51778

51877

Milling Rate (.9999)

6666

6666

6666

6666

6666

6666

MY Imports

1251

1251

217

220

50

50

TY Imports

598

598

50

50

50

50

TY Imp. from U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Supply

36717

36717

36309

36312

35770

35839

MY Exports

25

25

4

4

0

0

TY Exports

25

25

4

4

0

0

Consumption and

35100

35100

35100

35100

35000

35000

Ending Stocks

1592

1592

1205

1208

770

839

Total Distribution

36717

36717

36309

36312

35770

35839

WHEAT

Production

The MY 2016/17 wheat production forecast is unchanged.

Imports

Bangladesh generally imports as much as 90 percent of its total consumption needs. For MY 2016/17, Post’s estimate of wheat imports is raised to 5 MMT on increased consumer demand and lower world prices. For the latest five month period for which we have data (July – November, MY 2016/17) total wheat imports were 32% higher year on year.

Stocks

As of 19 January 2017, public stocks were estimated at 228,570 MT, which is a decline of 37 percent from this date last year. For the second half of calendar year 2016 government welfare distributions of wheat were nearly 16% higher year on year.

Prices

January 2017 wholesale and retail prices of loose wheat flour (Atta) in Dhaka district were BDT 25 ($0.32) and BDT 26 ($0.33) per kilogram, which is 3.3 percent and 7.4 percent lower.

Policy

Sources state that the Ministry of Food signed a government-to-government agreement with Russia to import 200,000 MT of wheat; the shipment is expected to arrive by March. Note: in calendar year 2016, of wheat shipments received from Russia, 150,000 MT were rejected for not meeting quality standards.

Bangladesh

Wheat

2014\2015

July

2015/2016

July

2016/2017

July

Official

POSt

New

Post

USDA

Official

USDA

Official

New

Post

Area Harvested

415

415

420

425

425

Beginning Stocks

1338

1338

1767

2260

2033

Production

1300

1300

1300

1335

1335

MY Imports

3929

3913

4693

5300

5000

TY Imports

3929

3929

4693

5300

5000

TY Imp. from US

87

87

0

0

0

Total Supply

6567

6551

7760

8895

8368

MY Exports

0

0

0

0

0

TY Exports

0

0

0

0

0

Feed and

0

0

0

0

0

FSI Consumption

4800

4800

5500

6500

6200

Total Consumption

4800

4800

5500

6500

6200

Ending Stocks

1767

1751

2260

2395

2168

Total Distribution

6567

6551

7760

8895

8368