Comparative table of StatCan data and market expectations

(mln tonnes)

Statscan Dec 31/2016

Average estimate

Lowest estimate

Highest estimate

Statscan Dec 31/2015

All wheat

25.031

24.2

22.7

25.4

21.431

Durum

6.901

6.7

6.5

7.0

4.231

Canola

12.159

12.2

11.6

12.7

13.452

Oats

2.371

2.3

2.0

2.5

2.504

Barley

6.352

6.3

5.7

6.8

5.686

As of December 31, 2016, total stocks of wheat, corn for grain and barley were up compared with the same date a year earlier. However, total stocks of canola, soybean and oats were down in 2016.

Total stocks of wheat rose 16.8% from December 31, 2015, to 25.0 million tonnes. The gain in stocks reflected a 15.0% increase in wheat production in 2016. Stocks held on farm totalled 21.3 million tonnes, up 21.2% from December 31, 2015. Commercial stocks were 3.5% lower at 3.7 million tonnes.

Canola stocks were down 9.6% from December 31, 2015, to 12.2 million tonnes on December 31, 2016. On-farm stock levels fell 12.3% to 10.3 million tonnes. Meanwhile, commercial stock levels rose 9.5% over the same period to a record high 1.8 million tonnes. Canola production was virtually unchanged from 2015 to 2016 at 18.4 million tonnes.

Total stocks of corn for grain totalled 11.7 million tonnes on December 31, 2016, up 3.0% from the same date a year earlier. Both on-farm stocks (+2.2% to 8.8 million tonnes) and commercial stocks (+5.4% to a record high 2.9 million tonnes) contributed to this increase.

Total stocks of soybeans decreased 4.3% from December 31, 2015, to 3.4 million tonnes in 2016 as result of a 17.1% decline in on-farm stocks. Meanwhile, commercial stock levels rose 16.4% over the same period to a record high 1.6 million tonnes. This overall decline was attributable to a drop in on-farm stocks from 2.2 million tonnes in 2015 to 1.8 million tonnes in 2016.

Barley stocks rose 11.7% from December 31, 2015, to 6.4 million tonnes at the end of 2016. The gain was attributable to a 12.6% increase in on-farm stocks to 6.1 million tonnes. Commercial stocks fell 9.1% to 211 000 tonnes.

Total stocks of oats decreased 5.3% to 2.4 million tonnes as of December 31, 2016. On-farm stocks were down 5.4% from the same date in 2015 to 2.2 million tonnes. Commercial stock levels declined 4.1% to 211 000 tonnes.

Total stocks of principal field crops at December 31

December 2014

December 2015

December 2016

Dec 2014 to Dec 2015

Dec 2015 to Dec 2016

thousands of tonnes

% change

Total wheat

25 596

21 431

25 031

-16.3

16.8

Durum wheat

4 087

4 231

6 901

3.5

63.1

Wheat excluding durum

21 509

17 200

18 130

-20.0

5.4

Barley

5 431

5 686

6 352

4.7

11.7

Canola

12 628

13 452

12 159

6.5

-9.6

Corn for grain

9 715

11 314

11 650

16.5

3.0

Dry field peas

2 286

2 373

2 687

3.8

13.2

Flaxseed

592

754

595

27.4

-21.1

Lentils

1 653

1 186

1 764

-28.3

48.7

Oats

2 553

2 504

2 371

-1.9

-5.3

Rye

129

144

278

11.6

93.1

Soybeans

3 317

3 546

3 393

6.9

-4.3