2015/2016

Area seeded to barley is expected to increase between 9 percent and 11 percent above 2014/2015 levels. These levels reflect a return to more normal levels; however, assuming normal yields, the increase in production levels will not be enough to increase supplies due to anticipated low carry-in stocks. This will limit barley exports in 2015/2016.

2014/2015

Low domestic supplies and quality issues will limit barley exports in 2014/2015. Despite a lower percentage of the Canadian barley crop meeting the quality standards required for malt barley, Canadian barley has been finding markets. China has been a big buyer of barley this year, as they do not mind using barley that does not quite meet the malt grade for malting purposes. This has help support exports and therefore prices. Low domestic supplies, combined with the availability of al lot of feed wheat will result in less barley going into feed in 2014/2015. Stocks will be pulled down.

BARLEY

2013/2014

2014/2015

2015/2016

Marketing Begins

Aug-13

Aug 2014

Aug-15

Canada

USDA Official

New Post

USDA Official

Old Post

USDA Official

New Post

Area Harvested

2,652

2,652

2,140

2,134

0

2,375

(1000 HA)

Beginning Stocks

983

983

1,924

1,924

0

768

(1000 MT)

Production

10,237

10,237

7,120

7,120

0

7,875

(1000 MT)

MY Imports

9

9

25

20

0

15

(1000 MT)

TY Imports

9

9

25

20

0

15

(1000 MT)

TY Imp. from U.S.

9

9

0

15

0

0

(1000 MT)

Total Supply

11,229

11,229

9,069

9,064

0

8,658

(1000 MT)

MY Exports

1,559

1,561

1,200

1,320

0

1,150

(1000 MT)

TY Exports

1,714

1,714

1,200

1,320

0

1,150

(1000 MT)

Feed and Residual

6,566

6,566

5,520

5,944

0

5,636

(1000 MT)

FSI Consumption

1,180

1,178

1,200

1,100

0

1,100

(1000 MT)

Total Consumption

7,746

7,744

6,720

7,044

0

6,736

(1000 MT)

Ending Stocks

1,924

1,924

1,149

700

0

772

(1000 MT)

Total Distribution

11,229

11,229

9,069

9,064

0

8,658

(1000 MT)

Yield

3.8601

3.8601

3.3271

3.3365

0.0000

3.3158

(MT/HA)

TS=TD

0

0

0

0

0

0