2015/2016

Early estimates are for area seeded to spring wheat to increase between two and five percent, while area seeded to durum is expected to increase to between 12 percent and 15 percent. There are concerns on the availability and cost of durum seed which may be a limiting factor.

2014/2015

Year to date data has wheat exports well above average (Aug – Nov), however there has been a slow down since Christmas. While quality issues have overshadowed total supplies, quality issues have been a factor for world supplies. Many of the factors that are causing Canadian wheat to be graded lower are not factors that affect the functionality of the wheat for the end user. For example, wheat is being downgraded for mildew but the mildew does not go deep enough to affect the color when milled. Other quality issues are able to be addressed through blending. This fact, combined with a weaker Canadian dollar and high supplies, will keep exports strong through 2014/2015. Stocks will be drawn down to more manageable levels. Durum supplies for quality and quantity will be tight after a disastrous year. Wheat into feed is higher than average due to low barley supplies and the availability of abundant supplies of feed wheat.

Policy:

Bills Moving Through Parliament

There are a number of grains-related bills moving through Parliament at this time. Bill C-18, the Agricultural Growth Act is a bill designed to amend certain Acts relating to agriculture and agri-food, including the Plant Breeder's Rights Act, the Feeds Act, the Fertilizer Act, the Seed Act, the Health of Animals Act and the Plant Protection Act. Perhaps one of the most controversial elements of Bill C-18 is the amendments to the Seed Act and the Plant Breeder's Rights Act which will bring Canada into compliance with the UPOV 91 convention which offers more protection for plant breeders' intellectual property. Canadian government officials are confident that this will stimulate more research, more investment in Canada and increased access to foreign plant varieties. The timeline for this legislation is that it will reach final assent in March 2015 and come into force one month later.

Bill C-48 is designed to modernize the Canada Grain Commission and proposes some changes to the Canada Grain Act that will help level the playing field for U.S. farmers delivering to Canadian grain elevators. Proposed changes to the Canada Grain Act will make it possible for U.S. farmers to receive a Canadian statutory grade if the variety being delivered is of a variety that is registered for use in Canada.

Transportation

While the rail situation has vastly improved over the previous year, tensions remain high between the railroads and the shippers. There is a great deal of variability on timing (when the trains are supposed to arrive and when they actually arrive) and a continued need for greater capacity. The AgCoalition/QCI released information publically on rail car demand, supply, timeliness, corridor performance, railway dwell times at origin and railway dwell times at destination. The data presented demonstrates the shortfall in meeting orders (demand). The performance measurement initiative is part of a five-year transportation strategy and action plan made possible by matching investments from the ag industry and Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC) through Growing Forward 2 programming

WHEAT

2013/2014

2014/2015

2015/2016

Marketing Begins

Aug-13

Aug 2014

Aug-15

Canada

USDA Official

New Post

USDA Official

Old Post

USDA Official

New Post

Area Harvested

10,442

10,441

9,460

9,462

0

9,870

(1000 HA)

Beginning Stocks

5,052

5,052

9,795

9,795

0

6,226

(1000 MT)

Production

37,530

37,530

29,300

29,281

0

30,000

(1000 MT)

MY Imports

446

446

480

480

0

480

(1000 MT)

TY Imports

441

441

480

480

0

480

(1000 MT)

TY Imp. from U.S.

319

319

0

460

0

0

(1000 MT)

Total Supply

43,028

43,028

39,575

39,556

0

36,706

(1000 MT)

MY Exports

23,238

23,238

23,000

23,000

0

21,200

(1000 MT)

TY Exports

22,138

22,138

23,500

23,500

0

21,200

(1000 MT)

Feed and Residual

4,787

4,787

5,000

5,000

0

5,000

(1000 MT)

FSI Consumption

5,208

5,208

5,330

5,330

0

5,330

(1000 MT)

Total Consumption

9,995

9,995

10,330

10,330

0

10,330

(1000 MT)

Ending Stocks

9,795

9,795

6,245

6,226

0

5,176

(1000 MT)

Total Distribution

43,028

43,028

39,575

39,556

0

36,706

(1000 MT)

Yield

3.5941

3.5945

3.0973

3.0946

0.0000

3.0395

(MT/HA)

TS=TD

0

0

0

0

0

0