Highlights

The Government of Pakistan has set the wheat production target at a record 26 million metric tons for the 2016 Rabi (winter) season. Wheat area is not expected to change significantly from a year ago. Harvesting of the 2016/17 rice crop is complete and initial reports suggest rice production was 6.6 MMT, down slightly from a year ago. During MY 2015-16, Pakistan exported nearly 4.3 MMT of rice.

Wheat

The Government of Pakistan has set the wheat production target at a record 26 million metric tons (MMT) for the 2016/17 Rabi (winter) crop that will be harvested in April and May of 2017. During the last marketing year the government also set a target of 26 MMT, but drier than normal weather and high temperatures resulted in lower yields and 2016 production of 25.3 MMT. Farmers have completed the sowing of wheat across Pakistan. Wheat area is not expected to change significantly from a year ago.

Good rains are predicted during January- February period according to the meteorological department. Ninety percent of the crop is irrigated and irrigation water availability for the upcoming Rabi season is estimated at 30.9 million acre feet (MAF) against the 10-year average of 36.4 MAF and the year ago availability of 32.9 MAF. This reduction in reservoir levels is not large enough to have a significant effect on planted area or yields.

The Government has kept the procurement price for the 2016 wheat harvest unchanged from last year at Rs. 1,250 per 40 kg ($300 per MT). While Pakistan's wheat will continue to be quite expensive relative to the international market, the decision should keep local wheat from becoming dearer still. The domestic market continues to be insulated from imports by a 60 percent “regulatory duty." With a high tariff and high domestic prices, Pakistan continues to be isolated from the international wheat market. Despite allowing exports of up to 900,000 metric tons of wheat with an export subsidy of $120 per ton, there has been no commercial interest from the export market. Exports of flour to neighboring Afghanistan continue at an estimated 500,000 to 600,000 MT of wheat equivalent annually.

Rice

Harvesting of the market year 2016/17 rice crop is complete and initial reports suggest production was 6.6 MMT, down slightly from a year ago. MY15/16 production is slightly higher based on the latest official data. During MY 2015-16, Pakistan exported nearly 4.3 MMT of rice, slightly above the current USDA estimate of 4.2 MMT.

Production, Supply and Demand Data Statistics

Rice, Milled

Market Begin Year

Pakistan

2014/2015

2015/2016

2016/2017

Nov 2014

Nov 2015

Nov 2016

USDA

Official

New

Post

USDA

Official

New

Post

USDA

Official

New

Post

Area Harvested

2850

2850

2740

2740

2800

2660

Beginning Stocks

679

679

1209

1209

919

909

Milled Production

6900

6900

6700

6800

6900

6640

Rough Production

10351

10351

10051

10201

10351

9961

Milling Rate

6666

6666

6666

6666

6666

6666

MY Imports

30

30

10

0

10

0

TY Imports

30

30

10

0

10

0

TY Imp. from U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Supply

7609

7609

7919

8009

7829

7549

MY Exports

3800

3800

4200

4300

4200

4200

TY Exports

4000

4000

4200

4300

4200

4200

Consumption and

2600

2600

2800

2800

2800

2800

Ending Stocks

1209

1209

919

909

829

549

Total Distribution

7609

7609

7919

8009

7829

7549

Yield

3.63

3.63

3.66

3.72

3.69

3.74