India.Oilseeds and Products Update Nov. 28, 2016
Highlights
Post maintains its previous marketing year (MY) 2016/17 (Oct-Sept) forecast for Indian soybean production in at 11.5 million metric tons (MMT), derived from 11.4 million hectares. Peanut production is revised higher to 6.4 MMT, derived from 5.5 million hectares. Oilmeal sales and edible oil imports are adjusted to reflect the latest trade estimates.
MY 2016/17 Soybean Production Unchanged at 11.5 MMT
The fall harvest (kharif) soybean, peanut, and sunflower crops were planted on16.3 million cumulative hectares, a six-percent increase in area planted over last year. Higher than anticipated peanut production increased India's overall kharif oilseed acreage, although soybean planting tracked with last year's levels. After two consecutive years of weak monsoons, normal and above-normal levels of monsoonal rainfall in 2016, particularly during the peak planting season of June-mid-July, encouraged oilseed planting. Strong oilseed prices further incentivized production.
Indian growing conditions during this year's cropping season were largely categorized as normal and soybean production in most growing areas was largely unaffected by adverse weather. Only eastern Madhya Pradesh received above-normal precipitation through August and September. Some of the more mature soybeans in that particular region may reflect resulting quality issues, although industry sources indicate that any weather-related damage would be isolated to a few districts there. Average yields will remain just above one metric ton (MT) per hectare. Post maintains its MY 2016/17 soybean production forecast at 11.5 MMT, from 11.4 million hectares.MY 2016/17 Peanut Production Revised Up to 6.4 MMT from 5.5 Million Hectares MY 2016/17 peanut area planted and production is revised higher to 5.5 million hectares, and 6.4 MMT, respectively, as per the most recent planting and trade estimates. Post's current production estimate is 10 percent above the previous estimate, and 40 percent over last year. India's kharif peanut crop is planted on 4.7 million hectares, a 28 percent increase in area planted over last season. This revision reflects higher than anticipated kharif peanut planting in Gujarat (which contributes about 40 percent of total kharif peanut production), Andhra Pradesh, Maharashtra, and Rajasthan. The summer planting is assumed to be normal, as per the most recent five-year average.
MY 2016/17 Oilmeal Exports Revised Lower to 2.5 MMT
Assuming normal market conditions, MY 2016/17 oilmeal exports are forecast lower to 2.5 MMT (regional sea and surface freight). Presently, international FOB prices for soymeal and rapeseed meal average about $60 per MT lower than Indian domestic prices for the same commodities. Lower than anticipated supplies of oilseeds (particularly soybeans) for crush (to meal and oil) has lowered the oilmeal sales forecast. MY 2015/16 oilmeal exports, excluding rice bran and castor meal, were the lowest in decades (451,000 MT). As indicated earlier, low-cost imports of edible oils and strong domestic prices of oilseeds (short-supply) provided little incentive for millers to crush oilseeds (mostly soybeans) for meal.
India Will Import 16 MMT of Edible Oils in MY 2016/17
Rising population, growing income levels, and attractive international edible oil prices should support higher imports. 'Soft oils' will constitute 37 percent of total imports while palm oil will constitute the rest. Evidently, palm oil's share has decreased by more than 16 percent over the last five years.
Relatively lower import duty on palm, coupled with a lower price premium for sunflower oil, should encourage imports in spite of the local supply situation being relatively better than the last few years. On Sept 23, 2016, the GOI lowered the import duty on crude palm oil from 12.5 percent to 7.5 percent and refined palm oil from 20 percent to 15 percent. In MY 2015/16, India imported 15.3 MMT of edible oils. Going forward, palm oil and competitively priced oilmeal imports may put downward pressure on domestic soybean prices, presently selling at INR 3,100 per quintal ($460 per MT, and 18 percent below last year).
Current Status of Rabi (winter) Crop Planting
Except for coarse cereals, winter sown (rabi) crop planting is 4.6 percent above last year . Sufficient soil moisture retained from preceding monsoon season has helped planting gain pace.
Oilseed, Soybean Market Begin Year India | 2014/2015 | 2015/2016 | 2016/2017 | |||
Oct 2014 | May 2015 | Oct 2016 | ||||
USDA Official | New Post | USDA Official | New Post | USDA Official | New Post | |
Area Planted | 11000 | 10908 | 11650 | 11610 | 11700 | 11400 |
Area Harvested | 10911 | 10908 | 11600 | 11610 | 11400 | 11400 |
Beginning Stocks | 719 | 719 | 797 | 695 | 146 | 432 |
Production | 8711 | 8700 | 7125 | 7000 | 9700 | 11500 |
MY Imports | 11 | 11 | 55 | 12 | 20 | 15 |
MY Imp. from U.S. | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 0 | 0 |
MY Imp. from EU | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Total Supply | 9441 | 9430 | 7977 | 7707 | 9866 | 11947 |
MY Exports | 234 | 235 | 135 | 100 | 150 | 200 |
MY Exp. to EU | 25 | 20 | 30 | 25 | 25 | 25 |
Crush | 6800 | 6600 | 5950 | 5400 | 7600 | 8500 |
Food Use Dom. Cons. | 630 | 650 | 650 | 575 | 660 | 650 |
Feed Waste Dom. | 980 | 1250 | 1096 | 1200 | 1000 | 1300 |
Total Dom. Cons. | 8410 | 8500 | 7696 | 7175 | 9260 | 10450 |
Ending Stocks | 797 | 695 | 146 | 432 | 456 | 1297 |
Total Distribution | 9441 | 9430 | 7977 | 7707 | 9866 | 11947 |
Meal, Soybean Market Begin Year India | 2014/2015 | 2015/2016 | 2016/2017 | |||
Oct 2014 | May 2015 | Octo 2016 | ||||
USDA Official | New Post | USDA Official | New Post | USDA Official | New Post | |
Crush | 6800 | 6600 | 5950 | 5400 | 7600 | 8500 |
Extr. Rate, 999.9999 | 0.8 | 0.8065 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.8 |
Beginning Stocks | 592 | 592 | 227 | 575 | 138 | 685 |
Production | 5440 | 5323 | 4760 | 4320 | 6080 | 6800 |
MY Imports | 7 | 0 | 48 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
MY Imp. from U.S. | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
MY Imp. from EU | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Total Supply | 6039 | 5915 | 5035 | 4895 | 6218 | 7485 |
MY Exports | 1072 | 1140 | 150 | 160 | 900 | 1700 |
MY Exp. to EU | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Industrial Dom. | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Food Use Dom. | 240 | 500 | 237 | 450 | 270 | 400 |
Feed Waste Dom. | 4500 | 3700 | 4510 | 3600 | 4700 | 4600 |
Total Dom. Cons. | 4740 | 4200 | 4747 | 4050 | 4970 | 5000 |
Ending Stocks | 227 | 575 | 138 | 685 | 348 | 785 |
Total Distribution | 6039 | 5915 | 5035 | 4895 | 6218 | 7485 |
Oil, Soybean Market Begin India | 2014/2015 | 2015/2016 | 2016/2017 | |||
Oct 2014 | May 2015 | Oct 2016 | ||||
USDA Official | New Post Official | USDA Official | New Post | USDA Official | New Post | |
Crush | 6800 | 6600 | 5950 | 5400 | 7600 | 8500 |
Extr. Rate.999.9999 | 0.1779 | 0.1758 | 0.178 | 0.1759 | 0.178 | 0.1765 |
Beginning Stocks | 246 | 246 | 199 | 206 | 415 | 656 |
Production | 1210 | 1160 | 1059 | 950 | 1353 | 1500 |
MY Imports | 2799 | 2800 | 4360 | 4300 | 4000 | 3800 |
MY Imp. from | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
MY Imp. from EU | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Total Supply | 4255 | 4206 | 5618 | 5456 | 5768 | 5956 |
MY Exports | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 10 |
MY Exp. to EU | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Industrial Dom. | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Food Use Dom. | 4056 | 4000 | 5200 | 4800 | 5400 | 5500 |
Feed Waste Dom. Cons. | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Total Dom. Cons. | 4056 | 4000 | 5200 | 4800 | 5400 | 5500 |
Ending Stocks | 199 | 206 | 415 | 656 | 368 | 446 |
Total | 4255 | 4206 | 5618 | 5456 | 5768 | 5956 |
Oilseeds, Penut. Market Begin Year India | 2014/2015 | 2015/2016 | 2016/2017 | |||
Oct 2014 | May 2015 | Oct 2016 | ||||
USDA | New | USDA | New | USDA | New | |
Official | Post | Official | Post | Official | Post | |
Area Planted | 4600 | 4560 | 4500 | 4300 | 4000 | 5500 |
Area Harvested | 4743 | 4560 | 4560 | 4300 | 5300 | 5500 |
Beginning Stocks | 767 | 767 | 230 | 573 | 80 | 358 |
Production | 4855 | 5200 | 4470 | 4600 | 5500 | 6400 |
MY Imports | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
MY Imp. from U.S. | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
MY Imp. from EU | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Total Supply | 5623 | 5968 | 4700 | 5173 | 5580 | 6758 |
MY Exports | 873 | 645 | 780 | 575 | 900 | 750 |
MY Export to EU | 20 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 30 |
Crush | 3350 | 3050 | 3620 | 2600 | 3050 | 3500 |
Food Use Dom. Cons. | 790 | 1200 | 790 | 1200 | 800 | 1400 |
Feed Waste Dom. | 380 | 500 | 400 | 440 | 420 | 500 |
Total Dom. Cons. | 4520 | 4750 | 3840 | 4240 | 4270 | 5400 |
Ending Stocks | 230 | 573 | 80 | 358 | 410 | 608 |
Total Distribution | 5623 | 5968 | 4700 | 5173 | 5580 | 6758 |
Meal, Peanut Market Begin Year India | 2014/2015 | 2015/2016 | 2016/2017 | |||
Oct 2014 | May 2015 | Oct 2016 | ||||
USDA Official | New Post | USDA Official | New Post | USDA Official | New Post | |
Crush | 3350 | 3050 | 2650 | 2600 | 3050 | 3500 |
Extr. Rate, 999.9999 | 0.42 | 0.4 | 0.42 | 0.4 | 0.42 | 0.4 |
Beginning Stocks | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Production | 1407 | 1220 | 1113 | 1040 | 1281 | 1400 |
MY Imports | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
MY Imp. from U.S. | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
MY Imp. from EU | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Total Supply | 1407 | 1220 | 1113 | 1040 | 1281 | 1400 |
MY Exports | 8 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 8 | 2 |
MY Exp. to EU | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Industrial Dom. | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Food Use Dom. Cons. | 5 | 10 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 10 |
Feed Waste Dom. | 1394 | 1207 | 1102 | 1033 | 1268 | 1388 |
Total Dom. Cons. | 1399 | 1217 | 1107 | 1038 | 1273 | 1398 |
Ending Stocks | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Total Distribution | 1407 | 1220 | 1113 | 1040 | 1281 | 1400 |
Oil, Peanut Market Begin Year India | 2014/2015 | 2015/2016 | 2016/2017 | |||
Oct 2014 | May 2015 | Oct 2016 | ||||
USDA Official | New Post | USDA Official | New Post | USDA Official | New Post | |
Crush | 3350 | 3050 | 2650 | 2600 | 3050 | 3500 |
Extr. Rate, 999.9999 | 0.3149 | 0.34 | 0.3151 | 0.34 | 0.3151 | 0.34 |
Beginning Stocks | 167 | 167 | 131 | 174 | 119 | 147 |
Production | 1055 | 1037 | 835 | 884 | 961 | 1190 |
MY Imports | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
MY Imp. from U.S. | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
MY Import from EU | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Total Supply | 1222 | 1204 | 966 | 1058 | 1080 | 1337 |
MY Exports | 15 | 15 | 13 | 11 | 20 | 15 |
MY Exp. to EU | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Industrial Dom. | 10 | 15 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 |
Food Use Dom. | 1066 | 1000 | 824 | 890 | 925 | 1140 |
Feed Waste Dom. | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Total Dom. Cons. | 1076 | 1015 | 834 | 900 | 935 | 1150 |
Ending Stocks | 131 | 174 | 119 | 147 | 125 | 172 |
Total Distribution | 1222 | 1204 | 966 | 1058 | 1080 | 1337 |
Oil, Palm Market Begin Year India | 2014/2015 | 2015/2016 | 2016/2017 | |||
Oct 2014 | May 2015 | Oct 2016 | ||||
USDA Official | New Post | USDA Official | New Post | USDA Official | New Post | |
Area Planted | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Area Harvested | 80 | 0 | 80 | 0 | 80 | 0 |
Trees | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Beginning Stocks | 460 | 460 | 646 | 627 | 381 | 377 |
Production | 180 | 180 | 200 | 200 | 200 | 220 |
MY Imports | 9256 | 9287 | 8735 | 9150 | 10000 | 10000 |
MY Imp. from U.S. | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
MY Imp. from EU | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Total Supply | 9896 | 9927 | 9581 | 9977 | 10581 | 10597 |
MY Exports | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
MY Exp. to EU | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Industrial Dom. Cons. | 500 | 500 | 500 | 600 | 600 | 700 |
Food Use Dom. Cons. | 8750 | 8800 | 8700 | 9000 | 9600 | 9400 |
Feed Waste Dom. | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Total Dom. Cons. | 9250 | 9300 | 9200 | 9600 | 10200 | 10100 |
Ending Stocks | 646 | 627 | 381 | 377 | 381 | 497 |
Total Distribution | 9896 | 9927 | 9581 | 9977 | 10581 | 10597 |