Highlights

Post maintains its previous marketing year (MY) 2016/17 (Oct-Sept) forecast for Indian soybean production in at 11.5 million metric tons (MMT), derived from 11.4 million hectares. Peanut production is revised higher to 6.4 MMT, derived from 5.5 million hectares. Oilmeal sales and edible oil imports are adjusted to reflect the latest trade estimates.

MY 2016/17 Soybean Production Unchanged at 11.5 MMT

The fall harvest (kharif) soybean, peanut, and sunflower crops were planted on16.3 million cumulative hectares, a six-percent increase in area planted over last year. Higher than anticipated peanut production increased India's overall kharif oilseed acreage, although soybean planting tracked with last year's levels. After two consecutive years of weak monsoons, normal and above-normal levels of monsoonal rainfall in 2016, particularly during the peak planting season of June-mid-July, encouraged oilseed planting. Strong oilseed prices further incentivized production.

Indian growing conditions during this year's cropping season were largely categorized as normal and soybean production in most growing areas was largely unaffected by adverse weather. Only eastern Madhya Pradesh received above-normal precipitation through August and September. Some of the more mature soybeans in that particular region may reflect resulting quality issues, although industry sources indicate that any weather-related damage would be isolated to a few districts there. Average yields will remain just above one metric ton (MT) per hectare. Post maintains its MY 2016/17 soybean production forecast at 11.5 MMT, from 11.4 million hectares.MY 2016/17 Peanut Production Revised Up to 6.4 MMT from 5.5 Million Hectares MY 2016/17 peanut area planted and production is revised higher to 5.5 million hectares, and 6.4 MMT, respectively, as per the most recent planting and trade estimates. Post's current production estimate is 10 percent above the previous estimate, and 40 percent over last year. India's kharif peanut crop is planted on 4.7 million hectares, a 28 percent increase in area planted over last season. This revision reflects higher than anticipated kharif peanut planting in Gujarat (which contributes about 40 percent of total kharif peanut production), Andhra Pradesh, Maharashtra, and Rajasthan. The summer planting is assumed to be normal, as per the most recent five-year average.

MY 2016/17 Oilmeal Exports Revised Lower to 2.5 MMT

Assuming normal market conditions, MY 2016/17 oilmeal exports are forecast lower to 2.5 MMT (regional sea and surface freight). Presently, international FOB prices for soymeal and rapeseed meal average about $60 per MT lower than Indian domestic prices for the same commodities. Lower than anticipated supplies of oilseeds (particularly soybeans) for crush (to meal and oil) has lowered the oilmeal sales forecast. MY 2015/16 oilmeal exports, excluding rice bran and castor meal, were the lowest in decades (451,000 MT). As indicated earlier, low-cost imports of edible oils and strong domestic prices of oilseeds (short-supply) provided little incentive for millers to crush oilseeds (mostly soybeans) for meal.

India Will Import 16 MMT of Edible Oils in MY 2016/17

Rising population, growing income levels, and attractive international edible oil prices should support higher imports. 'Soft oils' will constitute 37 percent of total imports while palm oil will constitute the rest. Evidently, palm oil's share has decreased by more than 16 percent over the last five years.

Relatively lower import duty on palm, coupled with a lower price premium for sunflower oil, should encourage imports in spite of the local supply situation being relatively better than the last few years. On Sept 23, 2016, the GOI lowered the import duty on crude palm oil from 12.5 percent to 7.5 percent and refined palm oil from 20 percent to 15 percent. In MY 2015/16, India imported 15.3 MMT of edible oils. Going forward, palm oil and competitively priced oilmeal imports may put downward pressure on domestic soybean prices, presently selling at INR 3,100 per quintal ($460 per MT, and 18 percent below last year).

Current Status of Rabi (winter) Crop Planting

Except for coarse cereals, winter sown (rabi) crop planting is 4.6 percent above last year . Sufficient soil moisture retained from preceding monsoon season has helped planting gain pace.

Oilseed, Soybean

Market Begin Year

India

2014/2015

2015/2016

2016/2017

Oct 2014

May 2015

Oct 2016

USDA

Official

New

Post

USDA

Official

New

Post

USDA

Official

New

Post

Area Planted

11000

10908

11650

11610

11700

11400

Area Harvested

10911

10908

11600

11610

11400

11400

Beginning Stocks

719

719

797

695

146

432

Production

8711

8700

7125

7000

9700

11500

MY Imports

11

11

55

12

20

15

MY Imp. from U.S.

0

0

0

12

0

0

MY Imp. from EU

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Supply

9441

9430

7977

7707

9866

11947

MY Exports

234

235

135

100

150

200

MY Exp. to EU

25

20

30

25

25

25

Crush

6800

6600

5950

5400

7600

8500

Food Use Dom. Cons.

630

650

650

575

660

650

Feed Waste Dom.

980

1250

1096

1200

1000

1300

Total Dom. Cons.

8410

8500

7696

7175

9260

10450

Ending Stocks

797

695

146

432

456

1297

Total Distribution

9441

9430

7977

7707

9866

11947

Meal, Soybean

Market Begin Year

India

2014/2015

2015/2016

2016/2017

Oct 2014

May 2015

Octo 2016

USDA

Official

New

Post

USDA

Official

New

Post

USDA

Official

New

Post

Crush

6800

6600

5950

5400

7600

8500

Extr. Rate, 999.9999

0.8

0.8065

0.8

0.8

0.8

0.8

Beginning Stocks

592

592

227

575

138

685

Production

5440

5323

4760

4320

6080

6800

MY Imports

7

0

48

0

0

0

MY Imp. from U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

MY Imp. from EU

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Supply

6039

5915

5035

4895

6218

7485

MY Exports

1072

1140

150

160

900

1700

MY Exp. to EU

0

0

0

0

0

0

Industrial Dom.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Food Use Dom.

240

500

237

450

270

400

Feed Waste Dom.

4500

3700

4510

3600

4700

4600

Total Dom. Cons.

4740

4200

4747

4050

4970

5000

Ending Stocks

227

575

138

685

348

785

Total Distribution

6039

5915

5035

4895

6218

7485

Oil, Soybean

Market Begin

India

2014/2015

2015/2016

2016/2017

Oct 2014

May 2015

Oct 2016

USDA

Official

New Post

Official

USDA

Official

New

Post


USDA

Official

New

Post


Crush

6800

6600

5950

5400

7600

8500

Extr. Rate.999.9999

0.1779

0.1758

0.178

0.1759

0.178

0.1765

Beginning Stocks

246

246

199

206

415

656

Production

1210

1160

1059

950

1353

1500

MY Imports

2799

2800

4360

4300

4000

3800

MY Imp. from

2

2

0

0

0

0

MY Imp. from EU

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Supply

4255

4206

5618

5456

5768

5956

MY Exports

0

0

3

0

0

10

MY Exp. to EU

0

0

0

0

0

0

Industrial Dom.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Food Use Dom.

4056

4000

5200

4800

5400

5500

Feed Waste Dom. Cons.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Dom. Cons.

4056

4000

5200

4800

5400

5500

Ending Stocks

199

206

415

656

368

446

Total

4255

4206

5618

5456

5768

5956

Oilseeds, Penut. Market Begin Year

India

2014/2015

2015/2016

2016/2017

Oct 2014

May 2015

Oct 2016

USDA

New

USDA

New

USDA

New

Official

Post

Official

Post

Official

Post

Area Planted

4600

4560

4500

4300

4000

5500

Area Harvested

4743

4560

4560

4300

5300

5500

Beginning Stocks

767

767

230

573

80

358

Production

4855

5200

4470

4600

5500

6400

MY Imports

1

1

0

0

0

0

MY Imp. from U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

MY Imp. from EU

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Supply

5623

5968

4700

5173

5580

6758

MY Exports

873

645

780

575

900

750

MY Export to EU

20

20

20

20

20

30

Crush

3350

3050

3620

2600

3050

3500

Food Use Dom. Cons.

790

1200

790

1200

800

1400

Feed Waste Dom.

380

500

400

440

420

500

Total Dom. Cons.

4520

4750

3840

4240

4270

5400

Ending Stocks

230

573

80

358

410

608

Total Distribution

5623

5968

4700

5173

5580

6758

Meal, Peanut

Market Begin Year

India

2014/2015

2015/2016

2016/2017

Oct 2014

May 2015

Oct 2016

USDA

Official

New

Post

USDA

Official

New

Post

USDA

Official

New

Post

Crush

3350

3050

2650

2600

3050

3500

Extr. Rate, 999.9999

0.42

0.4

0.42

0.4

0.42

0.4

Beginning Stocks

0

0

0

0

0

0

Production

1407

1220

1113

1040

1281

1400

MY Imports

0

0

0

0

0

0

MY Imp. from U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

MY Imp. from EU

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Supply

1407

1220

1113

1040

1281

1400

MY Exports

8

3

6

2

8

2

MY Exp. to EU

0

0

0

0

0

0

Industrial Dom.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Food Use Dom. Cons.

5

10

5

5

5

10

Feed Waste Dom.

1394

1207

1102

1033

1268

1388

Total Dom. Cons.

1399

1217

1107

1038

1273

1398

Ending Stocks

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Distribution

1407

1220

1113

1040

1281

1400

Oil, Peanut

Market Begin Year

India

2014/2015

2015/2016

2016/2017

Oct 2014

May 2015

Oct 2016

USDA

Official

New

Post


USDA

Official

New

Post


USDA

Official

New

Post


Crush

3350

3050

2650

2600

3050

3500

Extr. Rate, 999.9999

0.3149

0.34

0.3151

0.34

0.3151

0.34

Beginning Stocks

167

167

131

174

119

147

Production

1055

1037

835

884

961

1190

MY Imports

0

0

0

0

0

0

MY Imp. from U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

MY Import from EU

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Supply

1222

1204

966

1058

1080

1337

MY Exports

15

15

13

11

20

15

MY Exp. to EU

0

0

0

0

0

0

Industrial Dom.

10

15

10

10

10

10

Food Use Dom.

1066

1000

824

890

925

1140

Feed Waste Dom.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Dom. Cons.

1076

1015

834

900

935

1150

Ending Stocks

131

174

119

147

125

172

Total Distribution

1222

1204

966

1058

1080

1337

Oil, Palm

Market Begin Year

India

2014/2015

2015/2016

2016/2017

Oct 2014

May 2015

Oct 2016

USDA

Official

New

Post

USDA

Official

New

Post

USDA

Official

New

Post

Area Planted

0

0

0

0

0

0

Area Harvested

80

0

80

0

80

0

Trees

0

0

0

0

0

0

Beginning Stocks

460

460

646

627

381

377

Production

180

180

200

200

200

220

MY Imports

9256

9287

8735

9150

10000

10000

MY Imp. from U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

MY Imp. from EU

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Supply

9896

9927

9581

9977

10581

10597

MY Exports

0

0

0

0

0

0

MY Exp. to EU

0

0

0

0

0

0

Industrial Dom. Cons.

500

500

500

600

600

700

Food Use Dom. Cons.

8750

8800

8700

9000

9600

9400

Feed Waste Dom.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Dom. Cons.

9250

9300

9200

9600

10200

10100

Ending Stocks

646

627

381

377

381

497

Total Distribution

9896

9927

9581

9977

10581

10597