Highlights

Pakistan's shift from an importer of soybean meal to an importer of soybeans continues following adjustments to the tariff schedule two years ago. While soybean imports were slightly lower than expected, they reached a record 1.1 million metric tons (MMT) in 2015/16. Imports of soybean meal dropped to just 370,000 MT, the lowest level since 2010/11. Rapeseed imports met expectations but were up from a year ago at over 1.0 MMT.

Soybean Situation Generally Plays Out as Expected

The Government of Pakistan's two-year-old decision to adjust the tariff structure to discourage imports of soybean meal and encourage imports of soybeans is, for the most part, playing out as expected. Based on industry import and vessel arrival data, 2015/16 imports were somewhat less than expected, but still exceeded one million tons for the first time ever. Rapeseed (Canola) imports were down slightly from expectations based on industry arrival and vessel data, but increased significantly from a year ago.

Combined consumption of soybean meal and rapeseed meal increased marginally in 2015/16 and fell below expectations. This was something of a surprise given the reported growth in the poultry and dairy sectors. Imports of soybean meal continue to fall under the current tariff structure and the oilseed and feed sectors appear to be adjusting to the shift from imported to domestically-produced soybean meal. Some in the feed industry have raised concerns about the quality of domestic soybean meal and the industry is working to better understand crushing and production processes. The increase in rapeseed meal availability is expected to lead to record consumption, a factor that tempered soybean meal consumption and appears to have caused some producers to lower the presence of protein meals in their rations, increasing their use of wheat, maize, and rice. While not typical substitutes for protein meals, on the margins, Pakistani farmers have a number of feed input options.

Minor adjustments to 2016/17 imports reflect the expectation that soybeans will be the dominant oilseed import.

Edible Oil Imports Meet Expectations

Government of Pakistan data indicate that 2015/16 imports of palm oil were slightly below expectations and did not reach a record 3.0 MMT. Imports of soybean oil reached as MY 2015/16 exporter data reveals that imports of soybean oil and palm oil increased noticeably compared to previous year's imports. Palm oil dominates the imported vegetable oil market and is commonly blended with other oils and sold as cooking oil. Increasing imports of soybean oil augmented with oil from imported soybeans shows a consumer shift in demand from hydrogenated oil to soft oils.

Production, Supply and Demand Data Statistics

Rapeseed

Market Begin

Oct 2014

Oct 2015

Oct 2016

Pakistan

USDA

New

USDA

New

USDA

New

Official

Post

Official

Post

Official

Post

Area Planted

250

250

200

200

230

250

Area Harvested

250

250

200

200

230

250

Beginning Stocks

15

15

35

35

30

40

Production

220

220

160

160

200

220

MY Imports

915

760

1100

1040

800

700

MY Imp. from US

0

0

0

0

0

0

MY Imp. from EU

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Supply

1150

995

1295

1235

1030

960

MY Exports

0

0

0

0

0

0

MY Exp. to EU

0

0

0

0

0

0

Crush

1100

945

1250

1155

1000

910

Food Use Dom. Cons.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Feed Waste Dom. Cons.

15

15

15

40

15

20

Total Dom. Cons.

1115

960

1265

1195

1015

930

Ending Stocks

35

35

30

40

15

30

Total Distribution

1150

995

1295

1235

1030

960

Meal, Rapeseed

2014/2015

2015/2016

2016/2017

Market Begin

Oct 2014

Oct 2015

Oct 2016

Pakistan

USDA

New

USDA

New

USDA

New

Official

Post

Official

Post

Official

Post

Crush

1100

945

1250

1155

1000

910

Extr. Rate

0.5855

0.5926

0.5848

0.5974

0.585

0.5934

Beginning Stocks

20

20

18

50

19

0

Production

644

560

731

690

585

540

MY Imports

4

40

0

30

0

0

MY Imp. from US

0

0

0

0

0

0

MY Imp. from EU

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Supply

668

620

749

770

604

540

MY Exports

10

20

10

10

10

10

MY Exp. to EU

0

0

0

0

0

0

Industrial Dom. Cons.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Food Use Dom.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Feed Waste

640

550

720

760

575

530

Total Dom. Consumption

640

550

720

760

575

530

Ending Stocks

18

50

19

0

19

0

Total

668

620

749

770

604

540

Oilseed, Soybean

2014/2015

2015/2016

2016\2017

Market Begin

Pakistan

Oct 2014

Oct 2015

Oct 2016

USDA

New

USDA

New

USDA

New

Official

Post

Official

Post

Official

Post

Area Planted

2

2

2

2

2

Area Harvested

2

2

2

2

2

2

Beginning Stocks

0

0

38

20

38

28

Production

2

2

2

0

2

2

MY Imports

538

540

1250

1100

1750

1800

MY Imp. from

0

0

0

0

0

0

MY Imp. from EU

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Supply

540

542

1290

1120

1790

1830

MY Exports

0

0

0

0

0

0

MY Exp. to EU

0

0

0

0

0

0

Crush

500

520

1250

1090

1750

1800

Food Use Dom.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Feed Waste Dom.

2

2

2

2

2

0

Total Dom. Cons.

502

522

1252

1092

1752

1800

Ending Stocks

38

20

38

28

38

30

Total Distribution

540

542

1290

1120

1790

1830

Meal, Soybean

2014/2015

2015/2016

2016/2017

Market Begin

Oct 2014

Oct 2015

Oct 2016

Pakistan

USDA

Official

New

Post

USDA

Official

New

Post

USDA

Official

New

Post

Crush

500

520

1250

1090

1750

1800

Extr. Rate,

0.78

0.7885

0.784

0.7248

0.7817

0.7889

Beginning Stocks

50

50

276

200

51

150

Production

390

410

980

790

1368

1420

MY Imports

1036

1030

550

370

650

200

MY Imp. from

0

0

0

0

0

0

MY Imp. from EU

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Supply

1476

1490

1806

1360

2069

1770

MY Exports

0

0

5

0

5

0

MY Exp. to EU

0

0

0

0

0

0

Industrial Dom.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Food Use Dom.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Feed Waste

1200

1290

1750

1210

2030

1620

Ending Stocks

276

200

51

150

34

150

Total

1476

1490

1806

1360

2069

1770