Highlights

As a result of a recovery in Chinese swine production, tempered growth in the overall poultry sector, and the expected higher domestic demand for industry feed and protein meal, China's soybean imports are forecast to hit a record of 86 million metric tons (MMT) in MY16/17. Forecast imports are up from the 83.2 MMT level in MY15/16. However, the growth rate of soybean imports slowed due to a forecast recovery in domestic soybean production and China's sale of oilseed and oilseed product reserves (soybeans and rapeseed oil). The recovery and reserve sales are absorbing market share for food soybeans and vegetable oils. Notwithstanding, forecast lower imports of distiller grains, as a result of China's implementation of anti-dumping duties, may increase demand for soybean meal and could thus support continued growth in soybean imports.

Executive Summary

As a result of a recovery in Chinese swine production, tempered growth in the poultry sector, and the expected higher domestic demand for industry feed and protein meal, China's soybean imports are forecast to hit a record of 86 million metric tons (MMT) in MY16/17. Forecast imports are up from the 83.2 MMT level in MY15/16. However, the growth rate of soybean imports slowed due to a forecast recovery in domestic soybean production and China's sale of oilseed and oilseed product reserves (soybeans and rapeseed oil). The recovery and reserve sales are absorbing market share for food soybeans and vegetable oils. Notwithstanding, forecast lower imports of distiller's dried grains with soluble (DDGS), as a result of China's implementation of anti-dumping duties, may increase demand for soybean meal and could thus support continued growth in soybean imports.

MY16/17 Chinese soybean production is forecast to recover to 12.7 MMT

Due to a recent change in the Chinese government's corn policy lowering support payments to corn production, domestic soybean production is forecast to recover in MY16/17 to 12.7 MMT from the estimated 11.6 MMT in MY15/16. Post's MY16/17 production is higher than the USDA October 2016 official forecast of 12.5 MMT. Post's forecast is based on a larger forecast planted area of 7.11 MHa (up 10.4 percent from the previous year) and an average yield of 1,786Kg/Ha.

In its October report, The China National Grain and Oilseed Information Center (CNGOIC) maintained its forecast MY16/17 soybean production at 13.1 MMT, compared to the 12.6 MMT listed in its August report. CNGOIC's production is based on an estimated total soybean acreage of 7.15 MHa (of which 2.8 MHa correspond to Heilongjiang Province) and a yield average of 1,832 Kg/Ha (while the yield for Heilongjinag is 1,786 Kg/Ha). Based on CNGOIC, MY16/17 soybean production reached 5 MMT, up 18 percent over the previous year and the highest in five years.

The China Agricultural Outlook Committee, part of China's Ministry of Agriculture (MOA), lowered its MY16/17 soybean production to 12.5 MMT in its October report. This level is lower than its August data of 12.86 MMT. A drought in western Heilongjiang and eastern Inner Mongolia combined with high temperatures and low rainfall in parts of the Yangtze River region support a lower yield forecast and a smaller harvest area. Similarly, China's JCI, an independent industry information source focusing on feed ingredients, estimated MY16/17 domestic soybean production at 12.6 MMT.

China's industry sources generally agree that an increase in soybean acreage will take place in MY16/17. However, from May to August soybean growth was adversely impacted by a drought in the west and north regions of Heilongjiang. The local meteorological report showed that precipitation from July through August was merely one fifth of the average level. This seriously impacted growth, pod-setting, and soybean maturing, which resulted in low quality and lower yield which may offset the gain in soybean acreage. Soybean yield is also lower than expected in the soybean-growing areas along the Huai and the Yangtze Rivers due to a flood in July.

Post lowered its MY16/17 forecast soybean production to 12.7 MMT from the previous 13 MMT. This reflects the lower yields due to the adverse weather conditions. Currently, the marketing of soybeans in the Northeastern Provinces remained slow as the soybean price is lower than expected ranging from RMB3,500 to 3,600/ton. Most soybean farmers complain that losses in MY16/17 were greater than the previous year. Despite the fact that a reported RMB2,250 ($335)/Ha direct subsidy to soybean farmers in the Heilongjiang and Liaoning Provinces may offset part of farmer's losses, the soybean price may still be too low to make soybean planting as profitable as corn and rice.

MY16/17 soybean imports forecast at 86 MMT

Based on a forecast steady growth in protein meal consumption to meet the animal production sector demand, Post's forecast for MY16/17 soybean imports is 86 MMT. This is a net increase of 2.8 MMT from MY15/16.

China's leading industry sources believe that MY16/17 soybean imports will grow to about 85 MMT. As a reference, CNGOIC's current forecast is 85 MMT while China JCI's forecast stands at 84.6 MMT. It is worth mentioning that the China Agricultural Outlook Committee's September forecast for MY16/17 soybean imports stands at 83.5 MMT. This is based on higher domestic soybean yield/production coupled with the government's sales of state soybean reserves.

The profit margins for swine farmers in October continued declining from the May 2016 peak. Margins averaged RMB375 ($57)/head, almost the same as in October 2015. However, most industry insiders believe the current margins level appear to be reasonable in consideration to the production costs and may be more sustainable in balancing the market supply and demand. China's National Statistics Bureau data for the first nine months of 2016 indicates that the total meat production (pork, beef, mutton and poultry) is 58.33 MMT, 1.1 percent lower than the previous year. During that same period, pork production is down 3.6 percent at 36.9 MMT, and swine inventory is 3.4 percent lower than the previous year.

The Chinese industry association expects swine inventory to continue its recovery at a relatively slow rate given the government intensified efforts in environmental management. For the first nine months of 2016, MOA statistics showed a moderate recovery in swine inventory, a stable layer production, and an increase of aquaculture production of 3.4 percent from the previous year. Some sources, however, claim that the recovery might be higher, driven by the constant high profit margins. Sows are transferred to central and north provinces with less environmental pressure and pigs are raised to a higher weight in response to tight supply of piglets at high prices. Feed use in the final quarter of 2016 is expected to grow as swine farmers continue to fatten pigs for the upcoming New Year and Chinese Spring Festival. China's overall economic growth rate of 6.7 percent during the first three quarters of 2016 continues to support high disposal income for consumers and thus high demand for animal products.

In its October report, CNGOIC estimated that the use of soybean meal increased by 8.3 percent to 58.5 MMT in MY15/16 and forecast MY16/17 soybean meal use will continue to grow to 61.5 MMT, a net growth of 3 MMT or a 5.1 percent increase over the previous year.

MOA's forecast feed production growth is expected to level off during the 13th Five-Year Plan Period (2016-2020), with a yearly growth rate ranging from 1.5 to 2 percent or annual net growth of 4 to 6 MMT. The growth is mainly driven by swine (of which currently 75 percent is raised with industry feed) and ruminant farming.

Obstacles to DDGS imports could facilitate soybean imports

China's recent announcement of anti-dumping and countervailing duties could have a negative effect on imports of DDGS. In September 2016, China imposed preliminary anti-dumping duties of 33.8 percent and countervailing duties ranging from 10 percent to 10.7 percent. These duties may change depending on China's final determination, which is expected to be announced in early 2017.

During the first 8 months of 2016, as the anti-dumping investigation remained pending during this period, China's DDGS imports declined significantly to about 2.4 MMT compared to the 4.3 MMT during the same period last year. Higher import duties on DDGS in MY16/17 may reduce imports from the recent average year of 5 MMT. Lower DDGS imports could encourage feed mills to use more soybean meal to supplement protein content in feed. Forecast lower rapeseed and cottonseed production in MY16/17 are also expected to be compensated with higher imports of soybean for protein meal.

Nevertheless, the Chinese government's decision to sell part of its 6 MMT of stored soybean reserves is expected to impact soybean import growth in MY16/17. As of September 23, ten weekly auctions were held at relatively low prices with sales totaling 1.57 MMT. Auctions stopped temporarily to facilitate the marketing of the new MY16/17 crop but may resume at any time in 2017. Chinese government continues to restrict the use of imported biotech soybeans for food processing. Despite quality concerns, the release of old soybean stocks at lower prices is expected to partly satisfy the domestic soybean market in 2017.

Forecast MY16/17 rapeseed production is 13.5 MMT

Based on a forecast planted area of 7 MHa, down 4.1 percent from the previous year, MY16/17 rapeseed production is forecast to fall by 5.6 percent to 13.5 MMT. CNGOIC's October estimate for MY16/17 rapeseed production continues to be 14 MMT, based on a relatively high acreage of 7.1 MHa.

MY16/17 rapeseed imports impacted by sales of rapeseed oil reserves

China's recent agreement with Canada related to foreign matter content in rapeseed shipments facilitated the normalization of rapeseed imports from China's major supplier. Post's forecast for MY16/17 rapeseed imports is 4.2 MMT from the 4 MMT in MY15/16. MY15/16 imports were impacted over concerns regarding foreign matter content in rapeseed shipments. Additionally, the Chinese government resumed sales of its rapeseed oil reserve on October 12, 2016. As of October 19, 2016, 200,000 tons were sold. Industry insiders report that the sale of reserves resumed as the government decided to reduce stocks from the currently estimated level of 4.1 MMT. China's sale of 2.28 MMT of rapeseed oil reserves, during December 2015 to June 2016, partially reduced rapeseed imports in 2016.

World rapeseed production in MY16/17 appears to be higher than previously expected. Taking into consideration the global rapeseed supply, China's large crushing capacity, and China's lower-than-officially reported domestic rapeseed production, Post forecast MY16/17 imports at 4.2 MMT, slightly higher than the previous year.

MY16/17 Chinese peanut production is up

MY16/17 peanut production is expected to grow to 17 MMT given the comparatively stable profits for peanut production and in response to lower government support for corn planting. Based on reported expansion in acreage, since its July report, CNGOIC raised MY16/17 peanut production to 17.7 MMT, up 7.7 percent over the previous year.

Chinese industry sources indicate that due to policy changes leading to lower profits for corn and cotton, farmers in Shandong, Hebei, Henan and Liaoning Provinces, these farmers switched part of their land to peanut production. In addition, peanut prices remained high, particularly during the peanut planting season in 2016. Industry sources forecast MY16/17 peanut acreage up to 4.61 MHa from the 3.97MHa in MY15/16, a rise of 16.1 percent. Yield is also expected to rise due to generally favorable weather conditions during the growing season. In particular, yields in Shandong, Henan and Liaoning are expected to rise 10 percent from the previous year. Farmers in Linyi City/Shandong during the beginning of the MY16/17 harvest reported expansion in acreage and better yields over the previous year.

Forecast MY16/17 peanut imports remain strong

China's peanut imports surged to MY15/16 to 540,000 tons from 161,000 ton in the previous year. The surge is primarily due to price advantage for both imported in shell and shelled peanuts. However, expecting a higher domestic peanut production for MY16/17, Post forecast MY16/17 imports will slow to 500,000 tons.

The level of imports remains heavily dependent on the gap between domestic and international peanut prices. If the price gap becomes smaller than the “duty + VAT" value, imports could fall significantly (except imports from Senegal which are duty free based on a bilateral agreement). Imports of U.S. peanuts soared in MY15/16 to 290,000 tons from the 21,000 tons in the previous year. In the long term, U.S. peanut exports to China look bright due to China's growing demand coupled with limited potential in China significantly expanding acreage, yield, and production.

Currently, MY16/17 the price of new crop peanuts for crushing in Shandong province was almost identical as in the previous year. The current price is about 25 percent lower than the June to July 2016 period when the price peaked. Industry leaders expect the price to fall when the harvest peak comes.

MY16/17 cotton seed production is expected to fall to 8.3 MMT

Post's forecast for MY16/17 cotton seed production is 8.3 MMT, significantly lower than the 11 MMT in MY14/15, and lower than the estimated 8.9 MMT in MY15/16. In response to low profit expectations due to the government's reduced support for cotton production, Post's forecast for MY16/17 cotton acreage is more than 9 percent below the previous year. Similarly, according to a survey conducted in August by the China Cotton Association, MY16/17 cotton acreage is expected to fall by 10.1 percent from MY15/16.

Forecast MY16/17 vegetable oil imports level off

In MY15/16, China's total vegetable oil imports declined to 7.03 MMT from the 7.88 MMT during the previous year mainly due to a fall of 1 MMT of palm oil imports. Based on China's large crushing capacity, industry preference for oilseed imports, and taking into account the sales of state oilseed product reserves, total vegetable oil imports in MY16/17 are forecast to rebound only slightly to 7.17 MMT. This is based on a forecast recovery of palm oil and strong sunflower seed oil imports. Specifically, in MY16/17, soybean oil and rapeseed oil imports are both forecast down to 550,000 tons, respectively (this forecast is lower than USDA October's data), while palm oil imports are forecast to increase to 5.15 MMT and sunflower seed oil imports are forecast at 800,000 tons.

Weaker palm oil imports in MY15/16, at 4.69 MMT, were a result of a combination of factors: resumption of export duties in some exporting countries; weak demand for palm oil; adequate supply of other vegetable oils; and depreciation of the Chinese currency. The forecast 5.15 MMT in MY16/17 continues to be lower than the average 5.95 MMT during MY12/13 to MY14/15. Due to relatively cheaper prices for Ukraine and Russia supplies and the Chinese consumer's diversified preferences for vegetable oil, sunflower seed oil imports were higher at 0.88 MMT in MY15/16 and are expected to remain strong in MY16/17.

During December 2015 through June 2016, China sold 2.28 MMT of rapeseed oil reserves, out of the estimated 6.1 MMT. According to CNGOIC, a new round of sales of state rapeseed oil resumed with two auctions held on October 12 and 19. 199,456 tons were sold at a price ranging from RMB6,000 to 6,300 ($895 to 940)/ton, a lower price compared to the market price of about 6,700/ton. The Chinese large crushing sector's preference for oilseed imports (soybean and rapeseed) continues to make soybean and rapeseed oil imports attractive.

Oilseed production plan by 2020

On August 15, 2016, China's National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), in collaboration with MOA and the State Forestry Administration published the “National Oilseed Development Plan (2016 to 2020)." The plan set a target of total oilseed production of 59.8 MMT by 2020 from the 45.4 MMT in 2014 (note: oilseeds include rapeseed, peanuts, soybean and camellia). This is to be reached through an area expansion with an additional area of 4.16 MHa and yield gains.

The plan indicates the government will provide policy support for oilseed production, processing, technical extension and innovation. Specific measures have not yet been announced. It remains difficult to predict whether this target will be realized in particular for soybeans and rapeseed as the government's policy generally favors grain production and grain security. A steady growth of domestic oilseed supply is likely to slow down the growth rate of oilseed.

Oilseeds PSD Tables

PSD Table

Country

China, Peoples Republic of

Commodity

Oilseed, Soybean (1000 tons; 1000 Ha)

2014/15

2015/16

2016/17

USDA

Official

Post

Estimate

New

USDA

Official

Post

Estimate

New

USDA

Official

Post

Estimate

New

Market Year Begin

10/2014

10/2015

10/2016

Area Planted

7,700

6,800

6,600

6,440

6,200

7,110

Area Harvested

6,800

6,800

6,440

6,440

7,100

7,110

Beginning Stocks

13,877

13,877

17,034

16,234

16,014

15,250

Production

12,150

12,150

11,600

11,600

12,500

12,700

MY Imports

78,350

78,350

82,500

83,230

86,000

86,000

MY Imp. from U.S.

29,697

29,697

28,500

28,500

30,000

30,000

MY Imp. from EU

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Supply

104,377

104,377

111,134

111,064

114,514

113,950

MY Exports

143

143

120

114

150

150

MY Exp. to EU

10

0

10

10

10

10

Crush

74,500

74,500

81,300

81,500

86,500

86,000

Food Use Dom. Cons.

10,200

11,000

10,800

11,400

11,200

11,500

Feed Waste Dom. Cons.

2,500

2,500

2,900

2,800

3,000

3,000

Total Dom. Cons.

87,200

88,000

95,000

95,700

100,700

100,500

Ending Stocks

17,034

16,234

16,014

15,250

13,664

13,300

Total Distribution

104,377

104,377

111,134

111,064

114,514

113,950

CY Imports

81,740

81,740

83,000

83,500

86,000

86,000

CY Imp. from U.S.

28,000

28,413

29,000

29,000

30,000

30,000

CY Exports

133

133

150

130

150

150

CY Exp. to U.S.

70

70

70

50

70

50


Rapeseed

PSD Table

Country

Commodity

China, Peoples Republic of

Oilseed, Rapeseed (1000 tons;1000 Ha)

2014/15

2015/16

2016/17

USDA

Official

Post

Estimate

New

USDA

Official

Post

Estimate

New

USDA

Official

Post

Estimate

New

Market Year Begin

10/2014

10/2015

10/2016

Area Planted

0

7,588

0

7,300

0

7,000

Area Harvested

7,588

7,588

7,300

7,300

7,000

7,000

Beginning Stocks

1,036

1,036

1,499

1,499

1,048

1,109

Production

14,772

14,772

14,300

14,300

13,300

13,500

MY Imports

4,591

4,591

4,250

4,011

3,800

4,200

MY Imp. from U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

MY Imp. from EU

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Supply

20,399

20,399

20,049

19,810

18,148

18,809

MY Exports

0

0

1

1

0

0

MY Exp. to EU

0

0

0

0

0

0

Crush

18,300

18,300

18,400

18,100

16,800

17,300

Food Use Dom. Cons.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Feed Waste Dom. Cons.

600

600

600

600

600

600

Total Dom. Cons.

18,900

18,900

19,000

18,700

17,400

17,900

Ending Stocks

1,499

1,499

1,048

1,109

748

909

Total Distribution

20,399

20,399

20,049

19,810

18,148

18,809

CY Imports

4,470

4,470

4,200

4,100

3,800

4,400

CY Imp. from U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

CY Exports

0

0

0

0

0

0

CY Exp. to U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Peanuts

PSD Table

Country

China, Peoples Republic of

Commodity

Oilseed, Peanut (1000 tons; 1000 Ha)

2014/15

2015/16

2016/17

USDA

Official

Post

Estimate

New

USDA

Official

Post

Estimate

New

USDA

Official

Post

Estimate

New

Market Year Begin

10/2014

10/2015

10/2016

Area Planted

4,604

4,604

4,600

4,600

4,700

4,750

Area Harvested

4,604

4,604

4,600

4,600

4,700

4,750

Beginning Stocks

0

0

0

0

0

0

Production

16,482

16,482

16,500

16,500

16,900

17,000

MY Imports

161

161

580

541

600

500

MY Imp. from U.S.

0

21

0

292

0

200

MY Imp. from EU

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Supply

16,643

16,643

17,080

17,041

17,500

17,500

MY Exports

502

502

500

484

500

550

MY Exp. to EU

37

37

50

50

50

50

Crush

8,394

8,394

8,750

8,850

9,050

9,130

Food Use Dom. Cons.

6,650

6,650

6,830

6,707

6,950

6,770

Feed Waste Dom. Cons.

1,097

1,097

1,000

1,000

1,000

1,050

Total Dom. Cons.

16,141

16,141

16,580

16,557

17,000

16,950

Ending Stocks

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Distribution

16,643

16,643

17,080

17,041

17,500

17,500

CY Imports

165

175

550

500

600

500

CY Imp. from U.S.

0

27

0

285

0

200

CY Exports

511

509

500

500

500

500

CY Exp. to U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Meal PSD Tables

Soybean Meal

PSD Table

Country

Commodity

China, Peoples Republic of

Meal, Soybean (1000 tons)

2014/15

2015/16

2016/17

USDA

Official

Post

Estimate

New

USDA

Official

Post

Estimate

New

USDA

Official

Post

Estimate

New

Market Year Begin

10/2014

10/2015

10/2016

Crush

74,500

74,500

81,300

81,500

86,500

86,000

Extr. Rate, 999.9999

0.792

0.792

0.792

0.792

0.792

0.792

Beginning Stocks

0

0

0

0

0

0

Production

59,004

59,008

64,390

64,548

68,508

68,110

MY Imports

58

58

25

22

30

20

MY Imp. from U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

MY Imp. from EU

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Supply

59,062

59,066

64,415

64,570

68,538

68,130

MY Exports

1,595

1,577

1,900

1,889

1,900

1,850

MY Exp. to EU

60

60

30

100

30

100

Industrial Dom. Cons.

980

980

1,000

1,000

1,050

1,050

Food Use Dom. Cons.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Feed Waste Dom. Cons.

56,487

56,509

61,515

61,681

65,588

65,230

Total Dom. Cons.

57,467

57,489

62,515

62,681

66,638

66,280

Ending Stocks

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Distribution

59,062

59,066

64,415

64,570

68,538

68,130

CY Imports

60

60

30

25

30

25

CY Imp. from U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

CY Exports

1,714

1,696

1,850

1,850

1,850

1,900

CY Exp. to U.S.

20

20

20

20

0

30


Oils PSD Tables

Soybean Oil

PSD Table

Country

China, Peoples Republic of

Commodity

Oil, Soybean (1000 tons)

2014/15

2015/16

2016/17

USDA

Official

Post

Estimate

New

USDA

Official

Post

Estimate

New

USDA

Official

Post

Estimate

New

Market Year Begin

10/2014

10/2015

10/2016

Crush

74,500

74,500

81,300

81,500

86,500

86,000

Extr. Rate, 999.9999

0.179

0.179

0.179

0.179

0.1792

0.179

Beginning Stocks

965

965

778

778

617

690

Production

13,347

13,347

14,569

14,590

15,501

15,390

MY Imports

773

773

670

586

820

550

MY Imp. from U.S.

150

150

100

30

100

30

MY Imp. from EU

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Supply

15,085

15,085

16,017

15,954

16,938

16,630

MY Exports

107

107

100

96

110

100

MY Exp. to EU

0

0

0

0

0

0

Industrial Dom. Cons.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Food Use Dom. Cons.

14,200

14,200

15,300

15,168

16,200

15,850

Feed Waste Dom. Cons.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Dom. Cons.

14,200

14,200

15,300

15,168

16,200

15,850

Ending Stocks

778

778

617

690

628

680

Total Distribution

15,085

15,085

16,017

15,954

16,938

16,630

CY Imports

818

818

700

650

820

700

CY Imp. from U.S.

150

0

100

30

100

30

CY Exports

104

104

110

100

110

100

CY Exp. to U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0


Rapeseed Oil

PSD Table

Country

China, Peoples Republic of

Commodity

Oil, Rapeseed (1000 tons)

2014/15

2015/16

2016/17

Post

Post

Post

USDA

Estimate

USDA

Estimate

USDA

Estimate

Official

New

Official

New

Official

New

Market Year Begin

10/2014

10/2015

10/2016

Crush

18,300

18,300

18,400

18,100

16,800

17,300

Extr. Rate, 999.9999

0.390

0.390

0.39

0.39

0.39

0.39

Beginning Stocks

4,051

4,051

4,164

4,164

3,785

4,178

Production

7,137

7,137

7,176

7,059

6,552

6,747

MY Imports

732

732

750

768

700

550

MY Imp. from U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

MY Imp. from EU

0

107

0

110

0

100

Total Supply

11,920

11,920

12,090

11,991

11,037

11,475

MY Exports

6

6

5

3

5

5

MY Exp. to EU

0

0

0

0

0

0

Industrial Dom. Cons.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Food Use Dom. Cons.

7,750

7,750

8,300

7,810

8,100

8,200

Feed Waste Dom. Cons.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Dom. Cons.

7,750

7,750

8,300

7,810

8,100

8,200

Ending Stocks

4,164

4,164

3,785

4,178

2,932

3,270

Total Distribution

11,920

11,920

12,090

11,991

11,037

11,475

CY Imports

815

815

800

750

700

700

CY Imp. from U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

CY Exports

5

5

5

5

5

5

CY Exp. to U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0


Peanut Oil

PSD Table

Country

China, Peoples Republic of

Commodity

Oil, Peanut (1000 tons)

2014/15

2015/16

2016/17

Post

Post

Post

USDA

Estimate

USDA

Estimate

USDA

Estimate

Official

New

Official

New

Official

New

Market Year Begin

10/2014

10/2015

10/2016

Crush

8,394

8,394

8,750

8,850

9,050

9,130

Extr. Rate, 999.9999

0.320

0.32

0.32

0.32

0.32

0.32

Beginning Stocks

0

0

0

0

0

0

Production

2,686

2,686

2,800

2,832

2,896

2,922

MY Imports

141

141

130

113

150

120

MY Imp. from U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

MY Imp. from EU

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Supply

2,827

2,827

2,930

2,945

3,046

3,042

MY Exports

8

8

10

10

6

6

MY Exp. to EU

0

0

0

0

0

0

Industrial Dom. Cons.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Food Use Dom. Cons.

2,819

2,819

2,920

2,935

3,040

3,036

Feed Waste Dom. Cons.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Dom. Cons.

2,819

2,819

2,920

2,935

3,040

3,036

Ending Stocks

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Distribution

2,827

2,827

2,930

2,945

3,046

3,042

CY Imports

128

128

150

130

150

120

CY Imp. from U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

CY Exports

8

0

7

7

6

6

CY Exp. to U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0


Palm Oil

PSD Table

Country

China, Peoples Republic of

Commodity

Oil, Palm (1000 tons)

2014/15

2014/16

2016/17

USDA

Official

Post

Estimate

New

USDA

Official

Post

Estimate

New

USDA

Official

Post

Estimate

New

Market Year Begin

10/2014

10/2015

10/2016

Area Planted

0

0

0

0

0

0

Area Harvested

0

0

0

0

0

0

Trees

0

0

0

0

0

0

Beginning Stocks

310

310

305

255

155

100

Production

0

0

0

0

0

0

MY Imports

5,696

5,696

4,600

4,689

5,150

5,150

MY Imp. from U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

MY Imp. from EU

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Supply

6,006

6,006

4,905

4,944

5,305

5,250

MY Exports

1

1

0

5

0

2

MY Exp. to EU

0

0

0

0

0

0

Industrial Dom. Cons.

1,950

1,950

2,000

2,050

2,050

2,100

Food Use Dom. Cons.

3,750

3,800

2,750

2,789

3,100

3,000

Feed Waste Dom. Cons.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Dom. Cons.

5,700

5,750

4,750

4,839

5,150

5,100

Ending Stocks

305

255

155

100

155

148

Total Distribution

6,006

6,006

4,905

4,944

5,305

5,250

CY Imports

5,910

5,910

4,800

5,000

5,150

5,250

CY Imp. from U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

CY Exports

2

2

0

4

0

2

CY Exp. to U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0


Sunflower Seed Oil

PSD Table

Country

China, Peoples Republic of

Commodity

Oil, Sunflower Seed (1000 tons)

2014/15

2015/16

2016/17

Post

Post

Post

USDA

Estimate

USDA

Estimate

USDA

Estimate

Official

New

Official

New

Official

New

Market Year Begin

10/2014

10/2015

10/2016

Crush

1,300

1,300

1,300

1,294

1,320

1,322

Extr. Rate, 999.9999

0.359

0.3585

0.3585

0.3594

0.3598

0.3593

Beginning Stocks

0

0

0

0

0

0

Production

466

466

466

465

475

475

MY Imports

534

534

900

878

850

800

MY Imp. from U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

MY Imp. from EU

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Supply

1,000

1,000

1,366

1,343

1,325

1,275

MY Exports

0

2

0

2

0

2

MY Exp. to EU

0

0

0

0

0

0

Industrial Dom. Cons.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Food Use Dom. Cons.

1,000

998

1,366

1,342

1,325

1,273

Feed Waste Dom. Cons.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Dom. Cons.

1,000

998

1,366

1,342

1,325

1,273

Ending Stocks

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Distribution

1,000

1,000

1,366

1,343

1,325

1,275

CY Imports

450

651

850

820

850

800

CY Imp. from U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

CY Exports

0

1

0

0

0

2

CY Exp. to U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0