Highlights

As a result of a recovery in swine production and steady growth in the poultry sector, and subsequent higher demand for industry feed and protein meal, China's soybean imports are forecast to hit a record of 86 million metric tons (MMT) in MY16/17, up from the estimated 82.5 MMT in MY15/16. The soybean import growth rate, however, is expected to slow due to a forecasted recovery in domestic soybean production and China's sale of oilseed stocks and oilseed product reserves (soybeans and rapeseed oil), absorbing market share for food soybeans and vegetable oils. However, forecast lower imports of DDGS as a result of China's implementation of anti-dumping duties increases demand for soybean meal and thus could support growth in soybean imports.

Executive Summary

In anticipation of higher demand for industry feed and protein meal, as a result of a recovery in swine production and steady growth in the poultry sector, China's soybean imports are forecast to hit a record of 86 million metric tons (MMT) in MY16/17, up from the estimated 82.5 MMT in MY15/16. The soybean import growth rate, however, is expected to slow due to a forecasted recovery in domestic soybean production and China's sale of stored oilseed and oilseed product reserves (soybeans and rapeseed oil) absorbing market share for food soybeans and vegetable oils. However, forecast lower imports of DDGS as a result of China's implementation of anti-dumping duty increase demand for soybean meal and thus support growth in soybean imports.

MY16/17 Chinese soybean production is forecast to recover to 13 MMT

Due to recent change in the Chinese government's corn, domestic soybean production is forecast to recover in MY16/17 to 13 MMT from the estimated 11.6 MMT in MY15/16. Post's MY16/17 production is higher than the USDA September 2016 official forecast of 12.5 MMT. This is based on a larger forecast planted area of 7.11 MHa (up 10.4 percent from the previous year) and a slightly higher yield.

In its September report, The China National Grain and Oilseed Information Center (CNGOIC) adjusted its forecast MY16/17 soybean production to 13.1 MMT from the 12.6 MMT in its previous report. CNGOIC said the total planted area was 200,000 Ha higher due to more acreage in Heilongjiang Province, where the planted area reached 2.8 MHa, up 400,000 Ha or 16.7 percent over the previous year. In fact, acreage growth exceeded 20 percent in Heihe, Qiqihar and the State-owned farm areas in Heilongjiang Province. Additionally, except for areas in the west of Heilongjiang reportedly partly affected by dryness, the generally favorable soybean growing conditions nationwide support a higher yield forecast than the previous year. However, in mid-September, The China Agricultural Outlook Committee (part of MOA) lowered its MY16/17 soybean production to 12.53 MMT from its August data of 12.86 MMT based on lower yield forecasts and less harvested area as a result of drought in western Heilongjiang and eastern Inner Mongolia and high temperatures and low rainfall in parts of mid and downstream of the Yangtze River region.

An independent oilseed information source based in Heilongjiang province reported that the total soybean acreage in the four northeast provinces reached 3.61 MHa in MY16/17. This is a net increase of 1.25 MHa from the previous year. Similarly, the combined soybean planted area for all other provinces is forecast at 3.41 MHa, up by 327,000 Ha compared to last year. Thus, this source forecasts MY16/17 total soybean production will reach 14.1 MMT, up 3.67 MMT from its estimated 10.43 MMT in MY15/16. One of the major branches of the Heilongjiang State Farm Bureau also reported that the branch's 2016 soybean acreage increased by 40 percent to 152,000 Ha from the 108,666 Ha last year. This is in response to the government's call for less corn planting and encouragement to implement good crop rotation practices.

MY16/17 soybean imports forecast at 86 MMT

Based on a forecast steady growth in protein meal consumption to meet the growing animal production sector, Post's forecast for MY16/17 soybean imports is 86 MMT. This is a net increase of 3.5 MMT from MY15/16 and identical to the USDA September official forecast. Post's estimate for MY15/16 soybean imports remains at 82.5 MMT, the same as USDA's official September estimate. According to the Global Trade Atlas, total soybean imports in the first eleven months of MY15/16 stands at 76 MMT, up 6.6 percent over the previous year.

China's leading industry sources generally agree that MY16/17 soybean imports will grow to about 85 MMT. CNGOIC's current forecast is 85 MMT while China JCI's forecast stands at 84.6 MMT. It is worth mentioning that the China Agricultural Outlook Committee's September forecast MY16/17 soybean imports are 83.5 MMT based on higher domestic soybean yield/production coupled with sales of state soybean reserves.

According to China's industry statistics, the profit margins for swine farmers in September declined slightly from August. Margins stood at about RMB500 ($76)/head but were much lower than the RMB1,000 ($151) to 1,500 ($227)/head in May. The Chinese industry association estimated a slight fall in the 2016 pork production based on a slower recovery of the swine and sow inventory as the government intensified environmental management. Some sources, however, claimed the recovery might be higher than the official report driven by the constant high profit margins. Sows are transferred to central and north provinces with less environmental pressure and pigs are raised to higher weight in response to tight supply of piglets at high prices. Poultry production remained generally stable during August to September. Feed use during the month of September continues to grow as swine farmers continue to fatten pigs for the upcoming national day festival. In the second half of 2016, soybean meal use is expected to continue growing moderately.

CNGOIC estimated that soybean meal use is up 8.3 percent to 58.5 MMT in MY15/16 and forecast MY16/17 soybean meal use continues to grow to 61.5 MMT, or up 5.1 percent over the previous year.

MOA forecast feed production growth is expected to level off during the 13th Five-Year Plan Period (2016-2020), with a yearly growth rate ranging from 1.5 to 2 percent or annual net growth of 4 to 6 MMT. The growth is mainly driven by swine (of which currently 75 percent are raised with industry feed) and ruminant farming.

Factors impacting China's soybean imports

The Chinese government's decision to sell part of its 6 MMT of stored soybean reserves is expected to impact soybean import growth in MY16/17. As of September 23, ten weekly auctions were held with sales totaling 1.57 MMT at relatively cheap prices.

Due to weak prices for soybean meal and oil, the purchase rate at the auctions remained low at about 17 percent in August but recovered slightly in September to 28 percent on September 23, likely driven by crushers' increased participation as soybean import arrivals are estimated to be relatively low in October. Currently, the auction price remains at about RMB3,300/ton, lower than the RMB3,400/ton for imported soybeans at ports in mid-September. The government continues to restrict the use of imported biotech soybeans for food processing. These factors might encourage food processors to continue purchasing from the upcoming auction. The total volume to be purchased by the end of September may not reach 2 MMT, much lower than what was initially expected by industry sources.

An important factor supporting soybean import growth is that China imposed a 33.8 percent duty for U.S. DDGS imports effective on September 23 based on an anti-dumping ruling. China's DDGS imports declined significantly to about 2.4 MMT during the first 8 months of 2016 compared to the 4.3 MMT in the previous year as the anti-dumping investigation remained pending during this period. The high import duty could further reduce DDGS imports in MY16/17 from the average yearly imports of 5 MMT in recent years. Lower DDGS imports may boost China's use of soybean meal.

Forecast lower rapeseed and cottonseed production in MY16/17 is also expected to be compensated by higher soybean imports for protein meal.

Forecast MY16/17 rapeseed production is 13.5 MMT

Based on a forecast planted area of 7 MHa, down 4.1 percent from the previous year, MY16/17 rapeseed production is forecast to fall by 5.6 percent to 13.5 MMT. CNGOIC's September estimate of MY16/17 rapeseed production stands at 14 MMT, based on a relatively high acreage at 7.1 MHa.

MY16/17 rapeseed imports may reach 4.5 MMT

China's recent agreement with Canada on foreign matter in rapeseed shipments is expected to facilitate normalization of rapeseed imports from Canada. Post's forecast for MY16/17 rapeseed imports is at 4.5 MMT from the estimated 4.05 MMT in MY15/16. This forecast is higher than the USDA September official forecast of 3.8 MMT, but still lower than the average yearly 4.8 MMT imports in MY13/14 to MY14/15. MY15/16 imports were impacted by the uncertainty over the foreign matter content issue. Additionally, China's cumulative sales of state rapeseed oil reserves of 2.28 MMT (ending in June) are expected to satisfy part of the rapeseed product market for the rest of 2016.

World rapeseed production in MY16/17 appears to be higher than the previous expected. As a result, MY16/17 rapeseed imports could exceed the above forecast because of China's large crushing capacity and domestic production which could be lower than officially reported.

MY16/17 Chinese peanut production is up

MY16/17 peanut production is expected to grow to 17 MMT given comparatively stable profits for peanut production and also in response to lower government support for corn planting. Based on reported acreage expansion, since its July report, CNGOIC raised MY16/17 peanut production to 17.7 MMT, up 7.7 percent over the previous year.

Chinese industry sources indicated that due to policy changes leading to lower profits for corn and cotton, farmers in Shandong, Hebei, Henan and Liaoning Provinces switched part of their land to peanut production. In addition, peanut prices remained high, particularly during the peanut planting season in 2016. Industry sources forecast MY16/17 peanut acreage up to 4.61 MHa from the 3.97MHa in MY15/16, a rise of 16.1 percent. Yield is also expected to rise due to generally favorable weather conditions in the growing period. Industry sources estimated that yields in Shandong, Henan and Liaoning will increase 10 percent from the previous year. Post's short field trip to Linyi City/Shandong was during the beginning of the MY16/17 harvest and farmers interviewed during this trip reported expansion in acreage and better yields over the previous year.

Forecast MY16/17 peanut imports remain strong

Post raised its MY15/16 peanut imports to 560,000 tons, primarily due to price advantages for imported peanuts both in shell and shelled. Comparatively, Post forecast MY16/17 imports are down to 500,000 tons mainly based on expected high domestic production.

Chinese imports of both shelled and in-shell peanuts surged in MY15/16 driven by high peanut prices in the domestic market. Actual imports (including through all channels) are reportedly much higher than the official customs statistics. Industry sources estimate MY15/16 total peanut imports could exceed 1 MMT in addition to estimated imports of 150,000 tons of peanut oil.

Imports are highly relevant to the price gap between the domestic and international market. If the price gap becomes smaller than the “duty + VAT" value, imports through official channel could fall significantly (except imports from Senegal which are duty free based on a bilateral agreement). Imports through the gray channel, however, remain unpredictable as the government could intensify control of border trade if needed. Imports of U.S. peanuts soared in MY15/16. In the long term, U.S. peanut exports to China look bright due to China's growing demand coupled with limited potential in raising acreage and yield and production.

Currently, the price of new crop peanuts for crushing in Shandong province is almost identical to the previous year. Industry leaders expect the price to fall when the harvest peak comes.

MY16/17 cotton seed production is expected to fall to 8.3 MMT

Post's forecast for MY16/17 cotton seed production is 8.3 MMT, significantly lower than the 11 MMT in MY14/15, and lower than the estimated 8.9 MMT in MY15/16. In response to low profit expectations due to the government's reduced support for cotton production, Post's forecast for

MY16/17 cotton acreage is more than 9 percent below the previous year. Similarly, according to a survey done in August by the China Cotton Association, they estimate MY16/17 cotton acreage to fall by 10.1 percent from MY15/16.

Forecast MY16/17 vegetable oil imports level off

Based on the high crushing volume of oilseeds and the sales of state oilseed product reserves, China's vegetable oil imports in MY15/16 declined and could be even lower in MY16/17. MY16/17 soybean oil imports are forecast at 600,000 tons, down from the MY15/16 estimate. MY16/17 rapeseed oil imports are forecast at 700,000 tons, down from the estimate 740,000 tons for MY15/16. Peanut oil imports are forecast at 120,000 tons in MY16/17, unchanged from MY15/16. Due to the relatively cheaper prices for Ukraine and Russia supplies, and Chinese consumer's diversified preferences for vegetable oil, sunflower seed oil imports are higher at 0.86 MMT in MY15/16 and are expected to remain strong in MY16/17.

Post's estimate for MY15/16 palm oil imports are lowered to 4.8 MMT based on smaller than expected imports in recent months. Weaker palm oil imports are due to a combination of factors: resumption of export duties in some exporting countries; weak demand for palm oil; an adequate supply of other vegetable oils; and depreciation of the Chinese currency. Palm oil imports were 4.2 MMT in the first eleven months of MY15/16, significantly down from the 5.1 MMT in the previous year. Palm oil imports may recover moderately in September given low domestic palm oil stocks. Post's preliminary forecast for MY16/17 palm oil imports are at 5.2 MMT. However, this is significantly lower than the average 5.95 MMT during MY12/13 to MY14/15.

Since late 2015 China began to sell its old rapeseed oil reserves, estimated at 6.41 MMT. Based on CNGOIC, as of June 1, 2016, a total of 2.28 MMT of rapeseed oil reserves were sold. The 2.28 MMT of rapeseed oil sold is expected to reach end-users in the second half of 2016, impacting the vegetable oil market. The government suspended the auction of rapeseed oil in June without an official public notice. Based on CNGOIC's estimate, as of this report, China's state rapeseed oil reserve stands at about 4.1 MMT.

Oilseed production plan by 2020

On August 15, 2016, China's National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), in collaboration with MOA and State Forestry Administration published the “National Oilseed Development Plan (2016 to 2020)" which set a target of total oilseed production at 59.8 MMT by 2020 from the 45.4 MMT in 2014 (note: oilseeds include rapeseed, peanuts, soybean and camellia). This is to be reached through area expansion with additional area of 4.16 MHa and yield gains.

The plan indicates the government will provide policy support for oilseed production, processing, technical extension and innovation. Specific measures have not yet been announced. It remains difficult to predict whether this target will be realized in particular for soybeans and rapeseed as the government's policy generally favors grain production and grain security. A steady growth of domestic oilseed supply is likely to slow down the growth rate of oilseed imports.

Oilseeds PSD Tables

Country

China, Peoples Republic of

Commodity

Oilseed, Soybean (1000 tons; 1000 Ha)

2014/15

2015/16

2016/17

USDA

Estimate

USDA

Estimate

USDA

Estimate

Official

New

Official

New

Official

New

Market Year

Begin

10.14

10.15

10.16

Area Planted

7,7

6,8

6,6

6,44

6,2

7,11

Area Harvested

6,8

6,8

6,44

6,44

7,1

7,11

Beginning Stocks

13,877

13,877

17,034

16,234

15,514

14,484

Production

12,15

12,15

11,6

11,6

12,5

13

MY Imports

78,35

78,35

82,5

82,5

86

86

MY Imp. from U.S.

29,697

29,697

28,5

28,5

30

30

MY Imp. from EU

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Supply

104,377

104,377

111,134

110,334

114,014

113,484

MY Exports

143

143

120

150

150

150

MY Exp. to EU

10

0

10

10

10

10

Crush

74,5

74,5

81,8

81,5

87

86

Food Use Dom.

10,2

11

10,8

11,4

11,2

11,5

Feed Waste Dom.

2,5

2,5

2,9

2,8

3

3

Total Dom. Cons.

87,2

88

95,5

95,7

101,2

100,5

Ending Stocks

17,034

16,234

15,514

14,484

12,664

12,834

Total Distribution

104,377

104,377

111,134

110,334

114,014

113,484

CY Imports

81,74

81,74

83

83,5

86

86

CY Imp. from U.S.

28

28,413

29

29

30

30

CY Exports

133

133

150

150

150

150

CY Exp. to U.S.

70

70

70

50

70

50

Country

China, Peoples Republic of

Commodity

Oilseed, Rapeseed (1000 tons;1000 Ha)

2014/15

2015/16

2016/17

USDA

Official

Estimate

USDA

Estimate

USDA

Estimate

New

Official

New

Official

New

Market Year Begin

Oct.14

Oct.15

Oct.16

Area Planted

0

7,588

0

7,3

0

7

Area Harvested

7,588

7,588

7,3

7,3

7

7

Beginning Stocks

1,036

1,036

1,499

1,499

1,048

1,148

Production

14,772

14,772

14,3

14,3

13,3

13,5

MY Imports

4,591

4,591

4,25

4,05

3,8

4,5

MY Imp. from U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

MY Imp. from EU

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Supply

20,399

20,399

20,049

19,849

18,148

19,148

MY Exports

0

0

1

1

0

0

MY Exp. to EU

0

0

0

0

0

0

Crush

18,3

18,3

18,4

18,1

16,8

17,5

Food Use Dom. Cons.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Feed Waste Dom. Cons.

600

600

600

600

600

600

Total Dom. Cons.

18,9

18,9

19

18,7

17,4

18,1

Ending Stocks

1,499

1,499

1,048

1,148

748

1,048

Total Distribution

20,399

20,399

20,049

19,849

18,148

19,148

CY Imports

4,47

4,47

4,2

4,1

3,8

4,2

CY Imp. from U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

CY Exports

0

0

0

0

0

0

Country

China, Peoples Republic of

Commodity

Oilseed, Peanut (1000 tons; 1000 Ha)

2014/15

2015/16

2016/17

Post

Post

Post

USDA

Estimate

USDA

Estimate

USDA

Estimate

Official

New

Official

New

Official

New

Market Year Begin

10/2014

10/2015

10/2016

Area Planted

4,604

4,604

4,600

4,600

4,700

4,750

Area Harvested

4,604

4,604

4,600

4,600

4,700

4,750

Beginning Stocks

0

0

0

0

0

0

Production

16,482

16,482

16,500

16,500

16,900

17,000

MY Imports

161

161

580

560

600

500

MY Imp. from U.S.

0

21

0

5

0

10

MY Imp. from EU

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Supply

16,643

16,643

17,080

17,060

17,500

17,500

MY Exports

502

502

500

500

500

550

MY Exp. to EU

37

37

50

50

50

50

Crush

8,394

8,394

8,750

8,850

9,050

9,130

Food Use Dom. Cons.

6,650

6,650

6,830

6,710

6,950

6,770

Feed Waste Dom. Cons.

1,097

1,097

1,000

1,000

1,000

1,050

Total Dom. Cons.

16,141

16,141

16,580

16,560

17,000

16,950

Ending Stocks

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Distribution

16,643

16,643

17,080

17,060

17,500

17,500

CY Imports

165

175

550

500

600

450

CY Imp. from U.S.

0

12

0

8

0

10

CY Exports

511

509

500

500

500

500

CY Exp. to U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

CountryChina, Peoples Republic of
Commodity Meal, Soybean (1000 tons)
2014/152015/162016/17
USDAEstimateUSDAEstimateUSDAEstimate
OfficialNewOfficialNewOfficialNew
Market Year Begin10.1410.151016
Crush74,574,581,881,58786
Extr. Rate, 999.99990.79210.79210.7920.7920.7920.792
Beginning Stocks000000
Production59,00859,00864,78264,54868,968,11
MY Imports585830273020
MY Imp. from U.S.000000
MY Imp. from EU000000
Total Supply59,06659,06664,81264,57568,9368,13
MY Exports1,5951,5771,851,81,851,85
MY Exp. to EU60603010030100
Industrial Dom. Cons.980980111,021,05
Food Use Dom. Cons.000000
Feed Waste Dom. Cons.56,49156,50961,96261,77566,0665,23
Total Dom. Cons.57,47157,48962,96262,77567,0866,28
Ending Stocks000000
Total Distribution59,06659,06664,81264,57568,9368,13
CY Imports606030253025
CY Imp. from U.S.000000
CY Exports1,7141,6961,851,81,851,9

Country

China, Peoples Republic of

Commodity

Oil, Soybean (1000 tons)

2014/15

2015/16

2016/17

USDA

Estimate

USDA

Estimate

USDA

Estimate

Official

New

Official

New

Official

New

Market Year Begin

10/2014

10/2015

10/2016

Crush

74,500

74,500

81,800

81,500

87,000

86,000

Extr. Rate, 999.9999

0.1792

0.1792

0.1792

0.179

0.1792

0.179

Beginning Stocks

965

965

778

778

703

750

Production

13,347

13,347

14,655

14,590

15,587

15,390

MY Imports

773

773

670

650

820

600

MY Imp. from U.S.

150

0

100

30

100

30

MY Imp. from EU

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Supply

15,085

15,085

16,103

16,018

17,110

16,740

MY Exports

107

107

100

100

110

100

MY Exp. to EU

0

0

0

0

0

0

Industrial Dom. Cons.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Food Use Dom. Cons.

14,200

14,200

15,300

15,168

16,200

15,850

Feed Waste Dom. Cons.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Dom. Cons.

14,200

14,200

15,300

15,168

16,200

15,850

Ending Stocks

778

778

703

750

800

790

Total Distribution

15,085

15,085

16,103

16,018

17,110

16,740

CY Imports

818

818

700

650

820

700

CY Imp. from U.S.

150

0

100

30

100

30

CY Exports

104

104

110

100

110

100

CY Exp. to U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Country

China, Peoples Republic of

Commodity

Oil, Rapeseed (1000 tons)

2014/15

2015/16

2016/17

USDA

Estimate

USDA

Estimate

USDA

Estimate

Official

New

Official

New

Official

New

Market Year Begin

10/2014

10/2015

10/2016

Crush

18,300

18,300

18,300

18,400

18,100

18,100

Extr. Rate, 999.9999

0.39

0.39

0.39

0.39

0.39

0.39

Beginning Stocks

4,051

4,051

4,051

4,164

4,164

4,164

Production

7,137

7,137

7,137

7,176

7,059

7,059

MY Imports

732

732

732

800

800

740

MY Imp. from U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

MY Imp. from EU

0

107

107

0

110

110

Total Supply

11,920

11,920

11,920

12,140

12,023

11,963

MY Exports

6

6

6

5

6

6

MY Exp. to EU

0

0

0

0

0

0

Industrial Dom. Cons.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Food Use Dom. Cons.

7,750

7,750

7,750

8,100

7,779

7,779

Feed Waste Dom. Cons.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Dom. Cons.

7,750

7,750

7,750

8,100

7,779

7,779

Ending Stocks

4,164

4,164

4,164

4,035

4,238

4,178

Total Distribution

11,920

11,920

11,920

12,140

12,023

11,963

CY Imports

815

815

815

800

800

750

CY Imp. from U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

CY Exports

5

5

5

5

5

5

CY Exp. to U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Country

China, Peoples Republic of

Commodity

Oil, Peanut (1000 tons)

2014/15

2015/16

2016/17

USDA

Estimate

USDA

Estimate

USDA

Estimate

Official

New

Official

New

Official

New

Market Year Begin

10/2014

10/2015

10/2016

Crush

8,394

8,394

8,750

8,850

9,050

9,130

Extr. Rate, 999.9999

0.32

0.32

0.32

0.32

0.32

0.32

Beginning Stocks

0

0

0

0

0

0

Production

2,686

2,686

2,800

2,832

2,896

2,922

MY Imports

141

141

150

120

150

120

MY Imp. from U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

MY Imp. from EU

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Supply

2,827

2,827

2,950

2,952

3,046

3,042

MY Exports

8

8

10

7

6

6

MY Exp. to EU

0

0

0

0

0

0

Industrial Dom. Cons.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Food Use Dom. Cons.

2,819

2,819

2,940

2,945

3,040

3,036

Feed Waste Dom. Cons.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Dom. Cons.

2,819

2,819

2,940

2,945

3,040

3,036

Ending Stocks

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Distribution

2,827

2,827

2,950

2,952

3,046

3,042

CY Imports

128

128

150

130

150

130

CY Imp. from U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

CY Exports

8

8

7

7

6

6

CY Exp. to U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Country

China, Peoples Republic of

Commodity

Oil, Palm (1000 tons)

2014/15

2014/16

2016/17

USDA

Estimate

USDA

Estimate

USDA

Estimate

Official

New

Official

New

Official

New

Market Year Begin

10/2014

10/2015

10/2016

Area Planted

0

0

0

0

0

0

Area Harvested

0

0

0

0

0

0

Trees

0

0

0

0

0

0

Beginning Stocks

310

310

255

255

175

104

Production

0

0

0

0

0

0

MY Imports

5,696

5,696

5,000

4,800

5,150

5,200

MY Imp. from U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

MY Imp. from EU

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Supply

6,006

6,006

5,255

5,055

5,325

5,304

MY Exports

1

1

0

1

0

2

MY Exp. to EU

0

0

0

0

0

0

Industrial Dom. Cons.

1,950

1,950

2,000

2,050

2,050

2,100

Food Use Dom. Cons.

3,800

3,800

3,080

2,900

3,100

3,050

Feed Waste Dom. Cons.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Dom. Cons.

5,750

5,750

5,080

4,950

5,150

5,150

Ending Stocks

255

255

175

104

175

152

Total Distribution

6,006

6,006

5,255

5,055

5,325

5,304

CY Imports

5,910

5,910

5,000

5,000

5,150

5,250

CY Imp. from U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

CY Exports

2

2

0

1

0

2

CY Exp. to U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0


Country

China, Peoples Republic of

Commodity

Oil, Sunflower Seed (1000 tons)

2014/15

2015/16

2016/17

USDA

Estimate

USDA

Estimate

USDA

Estimate

Official

New

Official

New

Official

New

Market Year Begin

10/2014

10/2015

10/2016

Crush

1,300

1,300

1,300

1,294

1,320

1,322

Extr. Rate, 999.9999

0.3585

0.3585

0.3585

0.3594

0.3598

0.3593

Beginning Stocks

0

0

0

0

0

0

Production

466

466

466

465

475

475

MY Imports

534

534

800

860

750

800

MY Imp. from U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

MY Imp. from EU

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Supply

1,000

1,000

1,266

1,325

1,225

1,275

MY Exports

0

2

0

2

0

2

MY Exp. to EU

0

0

0

0

0

0

Industrial Dom. Cons.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Food Use Dom. Cons.

1,000

998

1,266

1,323

1,225

1,273

Feed Waste Dom. Cons.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Dom. Cons.

1,000

998

1,266

1,323

1,225

1,273

Ending Stocks

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Distribution

1,000

1,000

1,266

1,325

1,225

1,275

CY Imports

450

651

750

820

700

800

CY Imp. from U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

CY Exports

0

1

0

2

0

2

CY Exp. to U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0