Highlights

Post corn production forecast is 1 million MT, or 8% below the USDA projection in marketing year (MY) 2016/2017. Less production will boost corn imports, forecast up to 2.19 million MT. Rice planted area is forecast up 4% from the USDA area to 135,000 hectares, rebounding production to 516,000 MT, or about 350,000 MT of milled rice. Rice consumption is forecast 1.5% above USDA's projection to 680,000 MT. The wheat consumption forecast is 1.52 million MT, up 1% from the USDA forecast. Wheat imports are also up 1% from the USDA projection to 1.52 million MT.

Production

Corn is Venezuela's main crop by area with about 400,000 hectares harvested annually. About 55 percent of corn produced in Venezuela is white corn for human consumption and the remainder is yellow corn for both human consumption and for feed manufacturing.

A severe lack of seed technology and other inputs, in addition to old equipment in dire need of upgrades/repairs, will continue to negatively impact corn production, and productivity, in MY 2016/2017. The Post production forecast is 1 million MT, about 8% below the USDA projection. Production will be insufficient to fulfill total demand for feed and food placing critical importance on imports.

Consumption

There are two markets for corn in Venezuela: the white corn market for food and the yellow corn market for primarily feed. Insufficient access to feed grains in Venezuela has forced hog and poultry operations to adjust to limited feed supplies. Post sources indicate that the average slaughter weight for poultry has dropped dramatically in recent years, almost 50% lower, due to scarcity in feed materials. On a positive note, less poultry weight leads to lower per kilogram prices accommodating the reduced purchasing power of consumers subjected triple digit inflation. The Post feed consumption forecast remains at 1.7 million MT in MY 2016/2017 in line with the USDA official projection. There are also no changes to the non-feed consumption forecast, remaining at 1.6 million MT for MY 2016/2017.

Trade

The GBRV monopoly on grain imports is less evident with corn, as opposed to rice and wheat. Post sources indicate that the private sector is able to procure some imports overseas. As there appears to be more flexibility in procurement for the private sector, corn imports for MY 2016/2017 are forecast up marginally to 2.19 million MT, about 4% above the USDA projection.

Production, Supply and Demand Data Statistics

Corn

Corn

2014/2015

2015/2016

2016/2017

Market Year Begin:

Market Year Begin:

Market Year Begin:

Oct 2014

Oct 2015

Oct 2016

USDA

New Post

USDA

New Post

USDA

New Post

Official

Official

Official

Area Harvested

400

400

400

400

400

400

Beginning Stocks

350

350

433

433

283

383

Production

1,15

1,15

1,15

1,15

1,09

1

MY Imports

2,433

2,433

1,8

2,1

2,1

2,19

TY Imports

2,433

2,433

1,8

2,1

2,1

2,19

TY Imp. from U.S.

806

806

0

0

0

0

Total Supply

3,933

3,933

3,383

3,683

3,473

3,573

MY Exports

0

0

0

0

0

0

TY Exports

0

0

0

0

0

0

Feed and Residual

1,9

1,9

1,6

1,7

1,7

1,7

FSI Consumption

1,6

1,6

1,5

1,6

1,6

1,6

Total Consumption

3,5

3,5

3,1

3,3

3,3

3,3

Ending Stocks

433

433

283

383

173

273

Total Distribution

3,933

3,933

3,383

3,683

3,473

3,573

Commodities:

Rice, Milled

Production:

The end of the El Niño draught and return to more normal rainfall patterns encouraged planting for the 2016 winter harvest (October through December). Planted area is forecast up 4% from the USDA official area to 135,000 hectares in MY 2016/2017. Rough/paddy rice production is forecast at 516,000 MT in MY 2016/2017, equivalent to about 350,000 MT of milled rice and 3% above the USDA official volume. The severe lack of inputs, such as seed, fertilizer, pesticides, and machinery parts, nevertheless, continue to hold back productivity gains. Recent developments towards more pricing flexibility have stimulated domestic milling, yet chronic shortages keep milling facilities from producing at capacity.

Consumption

Rice is a traditional food and an important carbohydrate food staple, albeit an inferior substitute for bread and pasta to Venezuelan consumers. Widespread scarcity of wheat flour and derived products, nevertheless, has pushed desperate consumers towards all available substitutes, supporting a boost in rice consumption to 680,000 MT in MY 2016/2017, up 1.5% .

Trade

About 90% of rice imports are rough/paddy. Severe limitations on foreign exchange continue to cripple rice imports. The GBRV is the sole rough/paddy rice importer and decides on the allocations of incoming shipments to the public and private sector mills. Primary rough/paddy rice trading partners include the United States, Uruguay and Guyana. The recently opened border with Colombia has resulted in milled rice trade flows into Venezuela. The border state governments and individuals have been given tacit GBRV approval to import scarce commodities from Colombia.

The Petrocaribe agreement providing subsidized oil to Caribbean nations stimulated about 50,000 MT of Guyana rough/paddy rice trade annually. Low oil prices in 2016, however, have forced Venezuela to scale back the agreement. As a result, Post sources indicate that there may not be any Guyana rice imports in MY 2016/2017. Imports from other origins will not likely make up for the shortfall. Imports therefore are forecast to fall 5% from the USDA official projection to 380,000 MT in MY 2016/2017. As a result of tight domestic supplies, exports are also forecast down to 70,000 MT for MY 2016/2017, 12% less than USDA's forecast.

Rice, Milled

2014/2015

2015/2016

2016/2017

Market Year Begin:

Market Year Begin:

Market Year Begin:

Apr 2014

Apr 2015

Apr 2016

USDA

New Post

USDA

New Post

USDA

New Post

Official

Official

Official

Area Harvested

140

140

130

130

130

135

Beginning Stocks

107

107

97

97

57

67

Milled Production

360

360

340

340

340

350

Rough Production

531

531

501

501

501

516

Milling Rate (.9999)

6,786

6,786

6,786

6,786

6,786

6,786

MY Imports

500

500

400

400

400

380

TY Imports

500

500

400

400

400

380

TY Imp. from U.S.

148

0

0

0

0

0

Total Supply

967

967

837

837

797

797

MY Exports

180

180

120

90

80

70

TY Exports

180

180

120

90

80

70

Consumption and Residual

690

690

660

680

670

680

Ending Stocks

97

97

57

67

47

47

Total Distribution

967

967

837

837

797

797

Sorghum

Venezuela

2014/2015

2015/2016

2016/2017

Market Year Begin:

Market Year Begin:

Market Year Begin:

Oct 2014

Oct 2015

Oct 2016

USDA

New Post

USDA

New Post

USDA

New Post

Official

Official

Official

Area Harvested

90

90

90

90

90

90

Beginning Stocks

17

17

12

12

12

12

Production

110

110

90

90

90

90

MY Imports

0

0

0

0

0

0

TY Imports

0

0

0

0

0

0

TY Imp. from U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Supply

127

127

102

102

102

102

MY Exports

0

0

0

0

0

0

TY Exports

0

0

0

0

0

0

Feed and Residual

110

110

85

85

85

90

FSI Consumption

5

5

5

5

5

5

Total Consumption

115

115

90

90

90

95

Ending Stocks

12

12

12

12

12

7

Total Distribution

127

127

102

102

102

102

Wheat

Production

Production of wheat in Venezuela is negligible with imports satisfying all wheat supplies.

Consumption:

Post forecast for wheat consumption in MY 2016/2017 is revised upward to 1.52 million MT, up 1% from the USDA forecast. Bread and pasta are the preferred carbohydrates of the Venezuelan diet over other grains, such as rice.

Trade:

Post forecasts wheat imports at 1.52 million MT in MY 2016/2017, about 1% above the USDA projection. The Venezuela-Colombia border recently reopened for commercial trade since its closure in August 2015. The GBRV has tacitly approved the border state governments and individuals to import scarce commodities. Given wheat flour shortages in Venezuela, cross-border trade with foreign origin wheat imported by Colombia is likely.


Wheat

2014/2015

2015/2016

2016|2017

Market Year Begin: Jul 2014

Market Year Begin: Jul 2015

Market Year Begin: Jul 2016

2014

Jul 2015

Jul 2016

USDA

Official

New

Post

USDA

Official

New

Post

USDA

Official

New

Post

Area Harvested

0

0

0

0

0

0

Beginning Stocks

412

412

202

127

77

77

Production

0

0

0

0

0

0

MY Imports

1540

1540

1375

1600

1500

1520

TY Imports

1540

1540

1375

1600

1500

1520

TY Imp. from U.S.

401

401

307

0

0

0

Total Supply

1952

1952

1577

1727

1577

1597

MY Exports

0

0

0

0

0

0

TY Exports

0

0

0

0

0

0

Feed and Residual

0

0

0

0

0

0

FSI Consumption

1750

1825

1500

1650

1500

1520

Total Consumption

1750

1825

1500

1650

1500

1520

Ending Stocks

202

127

77

77

77

77

Total Distribution

1952

1952

1577

1727

1577

1597