Highlights:

On August 2, 2016, the Ministry of Agriculture (MoA) released its Fourth Advance Estimate for Indian Crop Year (ICY) 2015/16 (July/June). Grain production is forecast at 252.2 million metric tons (MMT), unchanged from the third advance estimate (May 2016). Although total grain production remains the same, rice and corn estimates were raised, and wheat estimates were lower.

General Information:

Government Releases its Fourth Advance Estimates of Grain Production for 2015/16

On August 2, 2016, the MoA released the Fourth Advance Estimate of Food grains for ICY 2015-16, estimating total production unchanged from the last estimate at 252.2 MMT. However, the MoA's latest projections raised the production for rice and corn, which were offset by lower production for wheat, pulses, and other coarse grains. India's 2015/16 food grain production includes rice, coarse grains, and pulse crops harvested last fall and this spring (MY 2015/16). Wheat and barley were also harvested in March-May, 2016 (MY 2016/17).

Sufficient Monsoon Rains in August

2016 southwest monsoon rains are generally sufficient and widespread across the country. Cumulative rainfall for the week ending August 24, 2016 was two percent below normal, with about 26 of the 36 weather subdivisions receiving normal and above normal rains. Regionally, cumulative precipitation in central India was seven percent above normal, and northwest India was five percent above normal. However, the Southern Peninsula was 13 percent below normal and eastern and northeastern India was 16 percent below normal. The Indian Metrological Department (IMD) weekly forecast suggests normal and/or above normal rainfall will continue in most of the country through first week of September.

Support Timely and Higher Kharif Planting

Sufficient and well distributed 2016 monsoon rains since early July have supported timely and higher planting of kharif crops during the ongoing season. The MoA estimates total acreage as of August 19, 2016 at 99.3 million hectares, an increase over the 93.9 million hectares planted by the same time last year. Pulses, coarse cereals, and rice account for most of the higher acreage.

Planting for most crops was over on schedule by second week of August, except for rice where planting in eastern and southern states will continue through first week of September. The standing crops are progressing well in most states under adequate soil moisture conditions, except some rain deficit areas western and southern India. However, forecast normal/above normal rains through first week of September would contain any significant damage due to moisture stress. Prolonged heavy rains and flooding could potentially damage standing crops and negatively affect yields.

RICE

India: Commodity, Rice Milled, PSD

Rice, Milled

2014/2015

2015/2016

2016/2017

Market Begin Year

Oct 2014

Oct 2015

Oct 2016

India

USDA

New

USDA

New

USDA

New

Official

Post

Official

Post

Official

Post

Area Harvested

44110

44110

43460

43390

44000

44000

Beginning Stocks

22757

22757

17766

17766

17500

18000

Milled Production

105480

105480

103500

104300

105000

105000

Rough Production

158236

158236

155266

156466

157516

157516

Milling Rate (.9999)

6666

6666

6666

6666

6666

6666

MY Imports

0

0

0

0

0

0

TY Imports

0

0

0

0

0

0

TY Imp. from U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Supply

128237

128237

121266

122066

122500

123000

MY Exports

12238

12238

9500

9500

8800

8800

TY Exports

11046

11046

9300

9300

8800

8800

Consumption andResidual

98233

98233

94266

94566

97500

97500

Ending Stocks

17766

17766

17500

18000

16200

16700

Total Distribution

128237

128237

121266

122066

122500

123000

Production

Post continues to estimate MY 2016/17 rice production unchanged at 105 MMT, based on timely planting and sufficient monsoon rains during the critical planting period (July-Mid-August). Based on the MoA Forth Advance Estimate, MY 2015/16 rice production is forecast higher to 104.3 MMT derived from 43.4 million hectares due to strong yields based on the latest information from the crop cutting experiments. Rice planting concluded during the first week of August in most states, excepting for pockets in eastern and coastal India, where planting will continue through first week of September. MoA estimates rice area planted at 34.6 million hectares as of August 19, 2016. This estimate is higher than last year, but consistent with the five-year average for the corresponding period. The rice crop is doing well, with adequate soil moisture conditions in most of the growing states. However, recent heavy rains in central and floods in eastern areas may raise concerns of potential crop damage if the wet conditions extend over time. Assuming normal rainfall and weather conditions through September, Post continues to forecast MY 2016/16 rice production at 105 MMT from 44 million hectares. However, prolonged floods in eastern India and cyclones in September/October may temper the production forecast.

Consumption/Ending Stocks Revised

MY 2015/16 consumption and ending stocks have been revised higher to reflect the higher production estimate.

WHEAT

India: Commodity, Wheat PSD

Wheat2014/20152015/20162016/2017
Market BeginApr 2014Apr 2015Apr 2016
Year
IndiaUSDANewUSDANewUSDANew
OfficialPostOfficialPostOfficialPost
Area Harvested304733047331470314702980030220
Beginning Stocks178301783017200172001450014540
Production958509585086530865308800090000
MY Imports515147152020002000
TY Imports27327325025020002000
TY Imp. From US000000
Total Supply113731113731104201104250104500106540
MY Exports3409340910601000400400
TY Exports18201820800650400400
Feed and Residual450045004200420045004500
FSI Consumption886228862284441845108860090640
Total Cons.931229312288641887109310095140
Ending Stocks172001720014500145401100011000
Total113731113731104201104250104500106540

Post's MY 2016/17 wheat production estimate is raised higher to 90 due to higher than earlier anticipated acreage (30.2 million hectares) and yields (2.98 MT/hectare). While MoA continues to optimistically estimate the crop at 93.5 MMT, private trade sources continue to estimate lower levels, in the range of 82 to 87 MMT due to continued firm domestic prices, which reflect tight domestic supplies. Industry sources expect the final estimate to come down significantly, as observed last year when MoA readjusted its ICY 2014/15 wheat production estimate down to 86.7 MMT from the Fourth Advance Estimate of 88.95 MMT. The MY 2016/17 crop yields were affected by relatively dry and warm winters resulting in yield realization normal that the normal yields in the recent past. MY 2016/17 consumption has been raised higher to account for the higher estimated production.Distribution

COARSE GRAINS

Post's MY 2015/16 corn production has been raised; while MY 2015/16 millet and sorghum and MY 2016/17 barley production estimates have been lowered based on the latest MoA fourth advance estimates. Corn production has been raised higher to 21.8 MMT from the earlier estimate of 21 MMT on higher rabi (winter planted) corn production (6.6 MMT vs earlier estimate of 5.5 MMT) due to higher than earlier anticipated area and yields. Other coarse grain production estimates have been reduced.

India: Commodity, Corn PSD

Corn

2014/2015

2015/2016

2016/2017

Market Begin

India

Nov 2014

Nov 2015

Nov 2016

USDA

New

USDA

New

USDA

New

Official

Post

Official

Post

Official

Post

Area Harvested

9185

9185

8490

8690

9500

9500

Beginning Stocks

1416

1416

2179

2179

829

929

Production

24170

24170

21000

21800

24500

24500

MY Imports

29

29

250

250

100

100

TY Imports

21

21

250

250

100

100

TY Imp. From US

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Supply

25615

25615

23429

24229

25429

25529

MY Exports

1136

1136

400

500

700

700

TY Exports

1172

1172

350

350

700

700

Feed and Residual

12500

12500

12700

13000

13500

13600

FSI Consumption

9800

9800

9500

9800

9800

9800

Total

22300

22300

22200

22800

23300

23400

Ending Stocks

2179

2179

829

929

1429

1429

Total Distribution

25615

25615

23429

24229

25429

25529

Millet

2014/2015

2015/2016

2016/2017

Market Begin year

India

Nov 2014

May 2015

Nov 2016

USDA

New

USDA

New

USDA

New

Official

Post

Official

Post

Official

Post

Area Harvested

8903

8903

8810

8810

9400

9400

Beginning Stocks

477

477

507

507

247

227

Production

11630

11630

10540

10220

11500

11500

MY Imports

0

0

0

0

0

0

TY Imports

0

0

0

0

0

0

TY Imp. From US

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Supply

12107

12107

11047

10727

11747

11727

MY Exports

0

0

0

0

0

0

TY Exports

0

0

0

0

0

0

Feed and Residual

1600

1600

1300

1300

1600

1600

FSI Consumption

10000

10000

9500

9200

9800

9800

Total Cons.

11600

11600

10800

10500

11400

11400

Ending Stocks

507

507

247

227

347

327

Total Distribution

12107

12107

11047

10727

11747

11727

Sorghum

2014/2015

2015/2016

2016/2017

Market Begin Year

Nov 2014

Nov 2015

Nov 2016

India

USDA

New

USDA

New

USDA

New

Official

Post

Official

Post

Official

Post

Area Harvested

5300

5300

5750

5660

5800

5800

Beginning Stocks

364

364

593

593

143

153

Production

5450

5450

4600

4410

5500

5500

MY Imports

0

0

0

0

0

0

TY Imports

0

0

0

0

0

0

TY Imp. From US

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Supply

5814

5814

5193

5003

5643

5653

MY Exports

121

121

50

50

50

50

TY Exports

121

121

50

50

50

50

Feed and Residual

700

700

600

600

800

800

FSI Consumption

4400

4400

4400

4200

4600

4600

Total Cons.

5100

5100

5000

4800

5400

5400

Ending Stocks

593

593

143

153

193

203

Total Distribution

5814

5814

5193

5003

5643

5653

Barley

2014/2015

2015/2016

2016/2017

Market Begin

Apr 2014

May 2015

Apr 2016

Year

India

USDA

New

USDA

New

USDA

New

Official

Post

Official

Post

Official

Post

Area Harvested

674

674

705

705

700

590

Beginning Stocks

229

229

231

231

245

245

Production

1831

1831

1610

1610

1700

1510

MY Imports

2

2

5

5

5

50

TY Imports

2

2

5

5

5

50

TY Imp. From US

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Supply

2062

2062

1846

1846

1950

1805

MY Exports

431

431

81

81

200

100

TY Exports

97

97

100

100

200

100

Feed and Residual

200

200

200

200

250

250

FSI Consumption

1200

1200

1320

1320

1300

1300

Total

1400

1400

1520

1520

1550

1550

Ending Stocks

231

231

245

245

200

155

Total Distribution

2062

2062

1846

1846

1950

1805